Draw Duel
Shane Wright faceoff stats, 2025-26
SEA · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
42.6%
90%: 40.2%–44.9% vs an average regular, on 1,468 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
39.7%
217 won of 546 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
37.3% / 45.7%
327 strong-side, 94 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.7 FOW
2026-10-04 vs CGY: 8 draws at 44.9%, range 1–6
Where Wright wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 34 | 17 | 50.0% |
| OZ right | 200 | 70 | 35.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 15 | 8 | 53.3% |
| NZ right (att.) | 31 | 16 | 51.6% |
| Centre | 125 | 52 | 41.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 17 | 5 | 29.4% |
| NZ right (def.) | 13 | 1 | 7.7% |
| DZ left | 28 | 13 | 46.4% |
| DZ right | 83 | 35 | 42.2% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R34.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L34.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R35.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L35.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R35.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L35.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L55.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L55.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L54.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L52.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L52.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R51.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 54.5% 11 | 50.0% 10 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 66.7% 3 | 50.0% 4 | 50.0% 4 | 60.0% 10 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 39.7% 546 | 39.8% 482 | 39.7% 63 | 0.0% 1 | 37.2% 234 | 40.8% 201 | 43.2% 111 | 37.3% 327 | 45.7% 94 |
| 2024-25 | 44.5% 830 | 43.9% 758 | 50.7% 67 | 40.0% 5 | 41.3% 288 | 40.3% 283 | 52.5% 259 | 46.1% 445 | 43.9% 212 |
| 2023-24 | 50.6% 81 | 52.6% 76 | 20.0% 5 | — 0 | 50.0% 40 | 60.0% 25 | 37.5% 16 | 38.5% 39 | 63.3% 30 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique | 10–12 | 45.5% | 38.1% | 38.4% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Mikael Granlund | 13–9 | 59.1% | 44.2% | 44.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Ryan Hartman | 8–13 | 38.1% | 45.6% | 45.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Teddy Blueger | 5–16 | 23.8% | 40.6% | 40.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Nazem Kadri | 4–16 | 20.0% | 45.7% | 44.7% | unusual (z -2.3) |
| Ryan Poehling | 4–15 | 21.1% | 42.1% | 41.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Pius Suter | 7–12 | 36.8% | 46.4% | 46.0% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Lars Eller | 6–12 | 33.3% | 40.6% | 40.3% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 8–10 | 44.4% | 44.8% | 44.8% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Tomas Hertl | 10–8 | 55.6% | 38.2% | 38.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Mason McTavish | 10–6 | 62.5% | 42.1% | 42.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 9–6 | 60.0% | 37.0% | 37.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ EDM | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CGY | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ COL | 4 | 14 | 28.6% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ VGK | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ BUF | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-26 | @ TBL | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ FLA | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ CBJ | 5 | 6 | 83.3% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ NSH | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs TBL | 2 | 8 | 25.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (42%), Morgan Frost (40%)3.7 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-06 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (47%), William Karlsson (39%)3.6 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-09 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (39%), J.T. Compher (45%)3.7 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-11 vs WSH likely opponents: Dylan Strome (37%), Boone Jenner (39%)3.5 FOW 1–6
FAQ
What is Shane Wright's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Shane Wright's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Shane Wright win tonight?
When Shane Wright has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Shane Wright better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.