Edgehalla

Draw Duel

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins faceoff stats, 2025-26

EDM · C · Left shot · full player page

Model rating

46.8%

90%: 44.4%–49.3% vs an average regular, on 1,713 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

47.4%

172 won of 363 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

50.2% / 41.7%

203 strong-side, 96 weak-side draws this season

Next game

No projection scheduled.

Where Nugent-Hopkins wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

50% · 13363% · 1625% · 1258% · 1247% · 6464% · 14— · 852% · 4432% · 60
Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.
Show as a table
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins faceoff win % by dot
DotDrawsWonFO%
OZ left1336750.4%
OZ right161062.5%
NZ left (att.)12325.0%
NZ right (att.)12758.3%
Centre643046.9%
NZ left (def.)14964.3%
NZ right (def.)8450.0%
DZ left442352.3%
DZ right601931.7%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Easiest

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
SeasonAllEVPPPKOZNZDZStrongWeak
2025-2647.4% 36346.8% 29963.9% 3632.1% 2851.7% 14948.2% 11040.4% 10450.2% 20341.7% 96
2024-2548.5% 55750.3% 47950.0% 2830.0% 5050.9% 17155.2% 17441.0% 21249.6% 25043.6% 211
2023-2448.0% 49251.0% 4080.0% 635.9% 7852.3% 17442.4% 12547.7% 19349.0% 24347.7% 174
Playoffs (all)42.5% 30143.1% 26250.0% 237.8% 3746.5% 9945.7% 9436.1% 10849.6% 13930.7% 114

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
OpponentRecordRawModelBlendedUnusual?
Anze Kopitar19–4430.2%40.0%38.9%a bit unusual (z -1.6)
Phillip Danault21–2150.0%45.1%45.5%normal luck (z 0.6)
Elias Pettersson19–2048.7%50.6%50.5%normal luck (z -0.2)
Matty Beniers18–1751.4%50.2%50.3%normal luck (z 0.1)
Tomas Hertl16–1847.1%41.5%41.8%normal luck (z 0.7)
Elias Lindholm14–1942.4%40.7%40.8%normal luck (z 0.2)
J.T. Miller14–1942.4%39.4%39.6%normal luck (z 0.4)
Quinton Byfield17–1553.1%52.5%52.5%normal luck (z 0.1)
Sam Bennett13–1940.6%47.5%47.1%normal luck (z -0.8)
Nazem Kadri18–1162.1%52.2%52.7%a bit unusual (z 1.1)
Robert Thomas11–1444.0%45.4%45.3%normal luck (z -0.1)
Jack Eichel12–1348.0%49.5%49.4%normal luck (z -0.1)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
DateOppFOWDrawsFO%
2026-04-30@ ANA71546.7%
2026-04-28vs ANA5862.5%
2026-04-26@ ANA11100.0%
2026-04-22vs ANA1250.0%
2026-04-20vs ANA010.0%
2026-04-16vs VAN81266.7%
2026-04-13vs COL101566.7%
2026-04-11@ LAK2825.0%
2026-04-08@ SJS1425.0%
2026-04-07@ UTA2825.0%

Projected faceoffs won

No upcoming games projected.

FAQ

What is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Ryan Nugent-Hopkins win tonight?

When Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.