Draw Duel
J.T. Compher faceoff stats, 2025-26
DET · L · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
48.4%
90%: 46.6%–50.2% vs an average regular, on 3,090 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
50.9%
520 won of 1022 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
49.5% / 51.1%
574 strong-side, 264 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.3 FOW
2026-10-04 vs WPG: 14 draws at 51.0%, range 3–11
Where Compher wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 75 | 34 | 45.3% |
| OZ right | 193 | 104 | 53.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 30 | 16 | 53.3% |
| NZ right (att.) | 31 | 19 | 61.3% |
| Centre | 184 | 101 | 54.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 23 | 14 | 60.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 38 | 20 | 52.6% |
| DZ left | 136 | 71 | 52.2% |
| DZ right | 312 | 141 | 45.2% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R39.9%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.9%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 16 | 54.5% 11 | — 0 | 40.0% 5 | 37.5% 8 | 33.3% 3 | 80.0% 5 | 41.7% 12 | 66.7% 3 |
| 2025-26 | 50.9% 1022 | 52.5% 878 | 56.3% 32 | 36.6% 112 | 51.5% 268 | 55.6% 306 | 47.3% 448 | 49.5% 574 | 51.1% 264 |
| 2024-25 | 45.1% 1013 | 45.8% 847 | 40.8% 49 | 41.9% 117 | 45.6% 318 | 44.2% 294 | 45.4% 401 | 46.7% 583 | 41.7% 259 |
| 2023-24 | 44.8% 1039 | 45.5% 782 | 44.2% 77 | 41.7% 180 | 43.7% 302 | 43.5% 260 | 46.1% 477 | 45.3% 644 | 42.6% 216 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli | 16–20 | 44.4% | 48.4% | 48.1% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| John Tavares | 13–23 | 36.1% | 42.7% | 42.3% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Adam Fantilli | 17–13 | 56.7% | 50.6% | 50.9% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Pavel Zacha | 16–13 | 55.2% | 46.7% | 47.2% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Sidney Crosby | 13–16 | 44.8% | 44.7% | 44.7% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Dylan Cozens | 14–14 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 46.7% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Anton Lundell | 16–12 | 57.1% | 46.6% | 47.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Ryan McLeod | 12–16 | 42.9% | 48.4% | 48.1% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Nick Suzuki | 11–17 | 39.3% | 46.6% | 46.2% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 13–14 | 48.1% | 49.0% | 49.0% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Christian Dvorak | 6–17 | 26.1% | 45.0% | 44.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Dylan Strome | 8–14 | 36.4% | 43.8% | 43.5% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | vs NYR | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ FLA | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ TBL | 6 | 15 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs NJD | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PHI | 3 | 13 | 23.1% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CBJ | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs MIN | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ NYR | 2 | 10 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ PHI | 9 | 19 | 47.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ PIT | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (46%), Jonathan Toews (40%)7.3 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-06 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (43%), Lars Eller (48%)7.2 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-09 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (47%), Matty Beniers (52%)7.7 FOW 3–12
- 2026-10-10 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (48%), Phillip Danault (44%)7.0 FOW 3–11
FAQ
What is J.T. Compher's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows J.T. Compher's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will J.T. Compher win tonight?
When J.T. Compher has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is J.T. Compher better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.