Draw Duel
Sam Carrick faceoff stats, 2025-26
BUF · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
52.9%
90%: 50.7%–55.1% vs an average regular, on 2,144 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
54.8%
296 won of 540 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.7% / 58.2%
272 strong-side, 153 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.2 FOW
2026-10-06 vs MIN: 6 draws at 56.0%, range 1–6
Where Carrick wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 28 | 13 | 46.4% |
| OZ right | 62 | 29 | 46.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 19 | 12 | 63.2% |
| NZ right (att.) | 13 | 11 | 84.6% |
| Centre | 115 | 61 | 53.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 28 | 14 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 15 | 7 | 46.7% |
| DZ left | 78 | 50 | 64.1% |
| DZ right | 182 | 99 | 54.4% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R44.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L44.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R45.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L45.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R45.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L45.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L65.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L65.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L64.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L62.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L62.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R62.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 50.0% 14 | 53.8% 13 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 75.0% 4 | 44.4% 9 | 45.5% 11 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 54.8% 540 | 55.6% 477 | 66.7% 3 | 48.3% 60 | 46.7% 90 | 55.3% 190 | 57.3% 260 | 53.7% 272 | 58.2% 153 |
| 2024-25 | 54.2% 692 | 53.8% 654 | 0.0% 2 | 63.9% 36 | 45.3% 106 | 58.8% 255 | 53.5% 331 | 54.1% 331 | 50.8% 199 |
| 2023-24 | 53.4% 785 | 53.9% 521 | 57.1% 35 | 51.5% 229 | 57.9% 152 | 52.1% 213 | 52.4% 420 | 53.8% 487 | 50.9% 165 |
| Playoffs (all) | 51.3% 113 | 53.6% 97 | — 0 | 37.5% 16 | 60.0% 15 | 56.7% 30 | 47.1% 68 | 51.7% 87 | 50.0% 10 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Jankowski | 11–10 | 52.4% | 52.8% | 52.7% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 13–8 | 61.9% | 50.5% | 51.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Dylan Strome | 11–7 | 61.1% | 48.8% | 49.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Noah Cates | 7–10 | 41.2% | 57.8% | 57.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Ryan McLeod | 9–8 | 52.9% | 53.1% | 53.1% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Kyle MacLean | 9–7 | 56.3% | 53.6% | 53.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Alex Newhook | 8–6 | 57.1% | 59.7% | 59.6% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Blake Lizotte | 3–11 | 21.4% | 54.2% | 53.3% | unusual (z -2.5) |
| Ryan Poehling | 8–6 | 57.1% | 52.7% | 52.8% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 3–11 | 21.4% | 54.3% | 53.4% | unusual (z -2.5) |
| Christian Dvorak | 7–6 | 53.8% | 50.0% | 50.1% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Tomas Hertl | 4–9 | 30.8% | 47.0% | 46.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs CHI | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ CBJ | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-05-10 | @ MTL | 2 | 8 | 25.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NYI | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-03-28 | vs SEA | 14 | 18 | 77.8% |
| 2026-03-27 | vs DET | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs BOS | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-03-22 | @ ANA | 8 | 14 | 57.1% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ LAK | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ SJS | 8 | 9 | 88.9% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (54%), Ryan Hartman (58%)3.2 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-08 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (58%), Roope Hintz (50%)3.0 FOW 1–5
- 2026-10-10 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (49%), Kevin Stenlund (53%)3.2 FOW 1–6
FAQ
What is Sam Carrick's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Sam Carrick's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Sam Carrick win tonight?
When Sam Carrick has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Sam Carrick better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.