Draw Duel
Alex Newhook faceoff stats, 2025-26
MTL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
44.0%
90%: 41.5%–46.5% vs an average regular, on 1,460 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
47.5%
126 won of 265 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
47.6% / 57.1%
210 strong-side, 21 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.0 FOW
2026-10-06 vs CAR: 7 draws at 44.8%, range 1–6
Where Newhook wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 110 | 52 | 47.3% |
| OZ right | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 20 | 7 | 35.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| Centre | 34 | 14 | 41.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 14 | 6 | 42.9% |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| DZ left | 66 | 35 | 53.0% |
| DZ right | 10 | 5 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R35.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L36.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R36.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R37.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L37.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L37.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L57.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L56.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L55.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L53.8%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L53.5%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R53.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 70.0% 20 | 66.7% 18 | 100.0% 2 | — 0 | 87.5% 8 | 75.0% 8 | 25.0% 4 | 63.6% 11 | 80.0% 5 |
| 2025-26 | 47.5% 265 | 48.7% 234 | 27.8% 18 | 53.8% 13 | 47.8% 115 | 41.9% 74 | 52.6% 76 | 47.6% 210 | 57.1% 21 |
| 2024-25 | 42.8% 558 | 42.7% 499 | 43.1% 58 | 100.0% 1 | 43.4% 281 | 41.2% 165 | 43.8% 112 | 45.4% 390 | 39.0% 77 |
| 2023-24 | 46.5% 492 | 44.9% 419 | 57.7% 71 | 0.0% 2 | 49.2% 193 | 41.9% 148 | 47.7% 151 | 49.7% 306 | 44.0% 100 |
| Playoffs (all) | 38.4% 125 | 38.3% 107 | 41.2% 17 | 0.0% 1 | 33.9% 56 | 42.5% 40 | 41.4% 29 | 36.7% 90 | 25.0% 12 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McLeod | 7–13 | 35.0% | 47.6% | 47.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Logan Stankoven | 10–9 | 52.6% | 49.2% | 49.3% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Nick Paul | 9–9 | 50.0% | 44.8% | 45.0% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 6–11 | 35.3% | 48.4% | 48.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Sam Bennett | 10–6 | 62.5% | 49.2% | 49.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Nic Dowd | 4–12 | 25.0% | 42.7% | 42.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Brayden Point | 4–11 | 26.7% | 47.0% | 46.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Dylan Strome | 6–9 | 40.0% | 40.6% | 40.6% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Elias Lindholm | 4–10 | 28.6% | 37.7% | 37.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Sam Carrick | 6–8 | 42.9% | 40.3% | 40.4% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Dylan Cozens | 4–10 | 28.6% | 42.5% | 42.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Claude Giroux | 5–9 | 35.7% | 32.7% | 32.8% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ PIT | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ TOR | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-05-29 | @ CAR | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-05-27 | vs CAR | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-25 | vs CAR | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-05-23 | @ CAR | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-21 | @ CAR | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-18 | @ BUF | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-16 | vs BUF | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-05-14 | @ BUF | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (40%), Sebastian Aho (46%)3.0 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-08 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (43%), Jack Drury (40%)3.0 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-10 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (44%), J.T. Compher (46%)3.2 FOW 1–6
FAQ
What is Alex Newhook's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Alex Newhook's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Alex Newhook win tonight?
When Alex Newhook has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Alex Newhook better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.