Draw Duel
Blake Lizotte faceoff stats, 2025-26
PIT · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
48.1%
90%: 45.6%–50.7% vs an average regular, on 1,276 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
50.0%
238 won of 476 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.4% / 41.8%
264 strong-side, 110 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.3 FOW
2026-10-05 vs WPG: 8 draws at 52.1%, range 1–7
Where Lizotte wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 32 | 16 | 50.0% |
| OZ right | 15 | 4 | 26.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| Centre | 102 | 51 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 29 | 20 | 69.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
| DZ left | 193 | 102 | 52.8% |
| DZ right | 78 | 30 | 38.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R39.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L60.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L57.8%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.5%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 46.4% 28 | 50.0% 20 | — 0 | 37.5% 8 | 0.0% 3 | 42.9% 7 | 55.6% 18 | 50.0% 12 | 58.3% 12 |
| 2025-26 | 50.0% 476 | 52.9% 342 | 25.0% 4 | 43.1% 130 | 42.6% 47 | 54.4% 158 | 48.7% 271 | 53.4% 264 | 41.8% 110 |
| 2024-25 | 51.0% 347 | 53.5% 299 | 0.0% 4 | 38.6% 44 | 42.4% 59 | 59.1% 115 | 48.6% 173 | 49.3% 225 | 36.4% 44 |
| 2023-24 | 46.8% 365 | 47.9% 313 | 33.3% 6 | 41.3% 46 | 40.4% 104 | 49.3% 138 | 49.6% 123 | 42.9% 163 | 49.0% 100 |
| Playoffs (all) | 43.3% 60 | 52.4% 42 | 0.0% 1 | 23.5% 17 | 50.0% 6 | 32.0% 25 | 51.7% 29 | 56.7% 30 | 41.7% 12 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cates | 14–10 | 58.3% | 54.8% | 55.0% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Trevor Zegras | 13–9 | 59.1% | 61.9% | 61.8% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 6–15 | 28.6% | 41.0% | 40.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Christian Dvorak | 10–11 | 47.6% | 47.1% | 47.1% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Elias Lindholm | 8–12 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 42.8% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| John Tavares | 4–16 | 20.0% | 43.2% | 42.3% | unusual (z -2.1) |
| Sean Couturier | 12–5 | 70.6% | 45.3% | 46.2% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| Dylan Strome | 10–6 | 62.5% | 45.0% | 45.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Jack Hughes | 10–4 | 71.4% | 59.6% | 59.9% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Sam Carrick | 11–3 | 78.6% | 45.8% | 46.7% | unusual (z 2.5) |
| Adam Fantilli | 8–5 | 61.5% | 53.3% | 53.5% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Sean Monahan | 3–9 | 25.0% | 48.0% | 47.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs MTL | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-09-30 | @ PHI | 8 | 16 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-29 | @ PHI | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-04-27 | vs PHI | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | @ PHI | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-22 | @ PHI | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs PHI | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-18 | vs PHI | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ UTA | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-03-12 | @ VGK | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (49%), Jonathan Toews (44%)4.3 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-07 vs WSH likely opponents: Dylan Strome (44%), Boone Jenner (47%)4.2 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-09 vs CBJ likely opponents: Charlie Coyle (46%), Adam Fantilli (53%)4.2 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs DAL likely opponents: Wyatt Johnston (51%), Roope Hintz (48%)4.2 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Blake Lizotte's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Blake Lizotte's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Blake Lizotte win tonight?
When Blake Lizotte has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Blake Lizotte better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.