Draw Duel
Brady Tkachuk faceoff stats, 2025-26
FLA · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
49.6%
90%: 46.8%–52.4% vs an average regular, on 1,101 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
57.6%
175 won of 304 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
58.5% / 35.0%
270 strong-side, 20 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.8 FOW
2026-10-05 vs BOS: 8 draws at 49.9%, range 1–7
Where Tkachuk wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 236 | 143 | 60.6% |
| OZ right | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 18 | 7 | 38.9% |
| NZ right (att.) | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 14 | 10 | 71.4% |
| NZ left (def.) | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| DZ left | 11 | 6 | 54.5% |
| DZ right | 0 | 0 | — |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R41.9%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.5%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.8%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L60.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R58.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L58.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 100.0% 4 | 100.0% 1 | 100.0% 3 | — 0 | 100.0% 4 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 4 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 57.6% 304 | 55.1% 185 | 61.0% 118 | 100.0% 1 | 58.4% 250 | 53.5% 43 | 54.5% 11 | 58.5% 270 | 35.0% 20 |
| 2024-25 | 51.3% 347 | 51.0% 194 | 51.7% 151 | 50.0% 2 | 54.0% 272 | 41.5% 41 | 41.2% 34 | 54.6% 284 | 31.8% 44 |
| 2023-24 | 52.6% 380 | 47.9% 192 | 57.8% 187 | 0.0% 1 | 51.9% 308 | 60.9% 46 | 46.2% 26 | 51.8% 305 | 50.0% 50 |
| Playoffs (all) | 47.0% 66 | 33.3% 30 | 58.3% 36 | — 0 | 49.1% 57 | 33.3% 6 | 33.3% 3 | 50.8% 59 | 0.0% 4 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal | 39–25 | 60.9% | 49.1% | 50.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Ryan McLeod | 8–10 | 44.4% | 57.3% | 56.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Charlie Coyle | 8–9 | 47.1% | 49.2% | 49.1% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Mikael Backlund | 12–4 | 75.0% | 56.9% | 57.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Auston Matthews | 5–10 | 33.3% | 47.4% | 47.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| J.T. Compher | 6–7 | 46.2% | 52.1% | 52.0% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 4–9 | 30.8% | 47.3% | 46.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Scott Laughton | 6–6 | 50.0% | 47.3% | 47.3% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Sebastian Aho | 9–3 | 75.0% | 52.8% | 53.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 7–4 | 63.6% | 56.6% | 56.7% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| David Kampf | 7–4 | 63.6% | 56.8% | 57.0% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Noel Acciari | 9–2 | 81.8% | 46.5% | 47.2% | unusual (z 2.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | @ SJS | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ CAR | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | vs CAR | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-23 | vs CAR | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-20 | @ CAR | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-04-18 | @ CAR | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ NYI | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs FLA | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs TBL | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs CAR | 8 | 11 | 72.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs BOS likely opponents: Pavel Zacha (51%), Elias Lindholm (44%)3.8 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-06 vs DET likely opponents: Andrew Copp (50%), J.T. Compher (52%)4.0 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-08 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (49%), Noel Acciari (48%)4.1 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (51%), Jack Drury (48%)4.0 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Brady Tkachuk's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Brady Tkachuk's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Brady Tkachuk win tonight?
When Brady Tkachuk has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Brady Tkachuk better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.