Draw Duel
Leo Carlsson faceoff stats, 2025-26
ANA · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
42.4%
90%: 40.5%–44.3% vs an average regular, on 2,425 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
44.4%
433 won of 976 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
48.7% / 36.1%
396 strong-side, 321 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.9 FOW
2026-10-04 vs FLA: 11 draws at 44.9%, range 2–8
Where Carlsson wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 230 | 104 | 45.2% |
| OZ right | 115 | 41 | 35.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 37 | 19 | 51.4% |
| NZ right (att.) | 24 | 10 | 41.7% |
| Centre | 259 | 124 | 47.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 30 | 19 | 63.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 23 | 9 | 39.1% |
| DZ left | 99 | 51 | 51.5% |
| DZ right | 159 | 56 | 35.2% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R34.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L34.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R35.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R35.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L35.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L35.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L55.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L55.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L53.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L52.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L51.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R51.7%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 46.2% 13 | 50.0% 12 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 28.6% 7 | 60.0% 5 | 100.0% 1 | 25.0% 8 | 50.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 44.4% 976 | 45.1% 803 | 48.3% 89 | 33.3% 84 | 42.0% 345 | 48.5% 373 | 41.5% 258 | 48.7% 396 | 36.1% 321 |
| 2024-25 | 41.4% 730 | 41.8% 648 | 37.3% 51 | 38.7% 31 | 37.2% 250 | 42.9% 261 | 44.3% 219 | 47.7% 325 | 30.9% 236 |
| 2023-24 | 34.8% 561 | 34.4% 535 | 42.9% 21 | 40.0% 5 | 37.7% 167 | 35.7% 235 | 30.2% 159 | 37.8% 225 | 31.2% 170 |
| Playoffs (all) | 40.0% 145 | 41.0% 134 | 30.0% 10 | 0.0% 1 | 34.4% 64 | 48.4% 62 | 31.6% 19 | 42.1% 57 | 34.0% 47 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Backlund | 20–29 | 40.8% | 43.0% | 42.8% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Jack Eichel | 19–24 | 44.2% | 45.4% | 45.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 9–25 | 26.5% | 45.6% | 44.4% | unusual (z -2.2) |
| Dylan Larkin | 13–19 | 40.6% | 40.7% | 40.7% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 16–16 | 50.0% | 41.9% | 42.4% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 14–15 | 48.3% | 39.4% | 39.9% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Elias Pettersson | 10–19 | 34.5% | 43.7% | 43.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| William Karlsson | 12–17 | 41.4% | 38.4% | 38.5% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Anze Kopitar | 10–16 | 38.5% | 36.8% | 36.9% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 10–15 | 40.0% | 40.8% | 40.8% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Adam Lowry | 10–15 | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Nic Dowd | 11–14 | 44.0% | 42.6% | 42.7% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | @ VGK | 6 | 13 | 46.2% |
| 2026-05-14 | vs VGK | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | @ VGK | 5 | 13 | 38.5% |
| 2026-05-10 | vs VGK | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-08 | vs VGK | 2 | 13 | 15.4% |
| 2026-05-06 | @ VGK | 2 | 12 | 16.7% |
| 2026-05-04 | @ VGK | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
| 2026-04-30 | vs EDM | 3 | 14 | 21.4% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ EDM | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-26 | vs EDM | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (42%), Aleksander Barkov (40%)4.9 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-07 vs EDM likely opponents: Leon Draisaitl (41%), Owen Michaels (52%)5.3 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-09 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (41%), Jonathan Toews (37%)4.8 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (44%), Morgan Frost (42%)4.9 FOW 2–8
FAQ
What is Leo Carlsson's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Leo Carlsson's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Leo Carlsson win tonight?
When Leo Carlsson has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Leo Carlsson better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.