Draw Duel
Justin Hryckowian faceoff stats, 2025-26
DAL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
52.2%
90%: 48.8%–55.5% vs an average regular, on 418 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
55.1%
189 won of 343 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
57.7% / 50.8%
215 strong-side, 59 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.7 FOW
2026-10-05 vs SJS: 8 draws at 59.3%, range 2–8
Where Hryckowian wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 89 | 54 | 60.7% |
| OZ right | 14 | 7 | 50.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 23 | 15 | 65.2% |
| NZ right (att.) | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 69 | 35 | 50.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 11 | 8 | 72.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 11 | 5 | 45.5% |
| DZ left | 92 | 47 | 51.1% |
| DZ right | 30 | 18 | 60.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R43.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L44.0%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R44.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R45.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L45.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L45.3%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L64.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L64.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L63.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L61.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R61.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L61.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 86.7% 15 | 85.7% 14 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 85.7% 7 | 66.7% 3 | 100.0% 5 | 92.3% 13 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 55.1% 343 | 57.4% 289 | 64.3% 14 | 35.0% 40 | 59.2% 103 | 53.4% 118 | 53.3% 122 | 57.7% 215 | 50.8% 59 |
| 2024-25 | 60.0% 5 | 60.0% 5 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | 66.7% 3 | 50.0% 2 |
| Playoffs (all) | 61.8% 55 | 61.7% 47 | 80.0% 5 | 33.3% 3 | 64.7% 17 | 61.5% 13 | 60.0% 25 | 67.4% 43 | 50.0% 6 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hartman | 15–12 | 55.6% | 58.2% | 58.0% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Michael McCarron | 11–10 | 52.4% | 49.4% | 49.5% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 11–8 | 57.9% | 58.2% | 58.1% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Mark Scheifele | 6–5 | 54.5% | 56.8% | 56.7% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 1–9 | 10.0% | 54.0% | 53.1% | unusual (z -2.8) |
| Jack Drury | 5–4 | 55.6% | 49.4% | 49.5% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| J.T. Compher | 2–6 | 25.0% | 54.8% | 54.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
| Nick Schmaltz | 4–3 | 57.1% | 59.4% | 59.3% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 3–4 | 42.9% | 51.9% | 51.8% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Mark Kastelic | 6–1 | 85.7% | 46.0% | 46.6% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 1–5 | 16.7% | 46.2% | 45.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Adam Lowry | 3–3 | 50.0% | 51.3% | 51.2% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ NSH | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-10-02 | vs STL | 8 | 8 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | @ MIN | 5 | 15 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-28 | vs MIN | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
| 2026-04-25 | @ MIN | 6 | 7 | 85.7% |
| 2026-04-22 | @ MIN | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs MIN | 9 | 12 | 75.0% |
| 2026-04-18 | vs MIN | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ BUF | 9 | 15 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ TOR | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs SJS likely opponents: Alexander Wennberg (60%), Macklin Celebrini (58%)4.7 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-08 vs BUF likely opponents: Josh Norris (55%), Ryan McLeod (55%)4.8 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs PIT likely opponents: Sidney Crosby (48%), Ben Kindel (58%)4.5 FOW 2–7
FAQ
What is Justin Hryckowian's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Justin Hryckowian's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Justin Hryckowian win tonight?
When Justin Hryckowian has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Justin Hryckowian better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.