Draw Duel
Mark Kastelic faceoff stats, 2025-26
BOS · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
55.6%
90%: 53.1%–58.1% vs an average regular, on 1,321 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
60.8%
343 won of 564 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
60.3% / 66.7%
451 strong-side, 9 weak-side draws this season
Next game
2.7 FOW
2026-10-05 vs OTT: 5 draws at 57.2%, range 1–5
Where Kastelic wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| OZ right | 69 | 40 | 58.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 29 | 20 | 69.0% |
| Centre | 104 | 65 | 62.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 23 | 11 | 47.8% |
| DZ left | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 330 | 201 | 60.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R46.9%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L47.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R47.9%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L48.4%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R48.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L48.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L67.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L67.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L66.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L65.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L64.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R64.4%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 33.3% 12 | 27.3% 11 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 50.0% 6 | 25.0% 4 | 0.0% 2 | 42.9% 7 | 50.0% 2 |
| 2025-26 | 60.8% 564 | 61.9% 402 | 83.3% 6 | 57.1% 156 | 59.7% 72 | 61.3% 160 | 60.8% 332 | 60.3% 451 | 66.7% 9 |
| 2024-25 | 54.4% 366 | 55.4% 345 | 50.0% 4 | 35.3% 17 | 50.0% 50 | 60.3% 126 | 51.6% 190 | 52.6% 251 | 50.0% 26 |
| 2023-24 | 54.4% 349 | 53.4% 337 | 100.0% 4 | 75.0% 8 | 55.8% 104 | 52.5% 120 | 55.2% 125 | 58.2% 158 | 50.5% 109 |
| Playoffs (all) | 70.0% 30 | 68.0% 25 | — 0 | 80.0% 5 | 100.0% 2 | 80.0% 10 | 61.1% 18 | 68.0% 25 | — 0 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Couturier | 9–9 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.5% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Anton Lundell | 10–5 | 66.7% | 55.7% | 56.0% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Bo Horvat | 6–9 | 40.0% | 52.1% | 51.7% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Max Domi | 7–7 | 50.0% | 57.1% | 57.0% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Lars Eller | 9–4 | 69.2% | 55.7% | 56.0% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Dylan Larkin | 7–6 | 53.8% | 53.6% | 53.6% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Sam Bennett | 6–6 | 50.0% | 60.4% | 60.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Christian Dvorak | 6–6 | 50.0% | 53.6% | 53.5% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| John Tavares | 5–7 | 41.7% | 53.1% | 52.9% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Tomas Hertl | 5–7 | 41.7% | 51.7% | 51.5% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Ridly Greig | 6–5 | 54.5% | 57.8% | 57.7% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Peyton Krebs | 4–7 | 36.4% | 61.4% | 60.9% | a bit unusual (z -1.7) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ MIN | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-10-02 | @ WPG | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs NYR | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-05-01 | vs BUF | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ BUF | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
| 2026-04-26 | vs BUF | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-23 | vs BUF | 5 | 6 | 83.3% |
| 2026-04-21 | @ BUF | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-19 | @ BUF | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs NJD | 8 | 11 | 72.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (52%), Lars Eller (56%)2.7 FOW 1–5
- 2026-10-08 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (53%), Kevin Stenlund (57%)2.9 FOW 1–5
- 2026-10-10 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (54%), Noel Acciari (59%)2.8 FOW 1–5
FAQ
What is Mark Kastelic's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Mark Kastelic's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Mark Kastelic win tonight?
When Mark Kastelic has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Mark Kastelic better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.