Draw Duel
Max Domi faceoff stats, 2025-26
TOR · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
49.8%
90%: 47.3%–52.2% vs an average regular, on 1,575 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
51.3%
221 won of 431 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
56.2% / 44.4%
194 strong-side, 153 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Domi wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 104 | 58 | 55.8% |
| OZ right | 52 | 20 | 38.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 9 | 5 | 55.6% |
| NZ right (att.) | 13 | 9 | 69.2% |
| Centre | 84 | 44 | 52.4% |
| NZ left (def.) | 13 | 7 | 53.8% |
| NZ right (def.) | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| DZ left | 68 | 39 | 57.4% |
| DZ right | 80 | 36 | 45.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.0%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L41.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R42.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L42.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L42.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L62.4%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L59.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R59.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 51.3% 431 | 50.8% 396 | 57.1% 35 | — 0 | 50.0% 156 | 53.5% 127 | 50.7% 148 | 56.2% 194 | 44.4% 153 |
| 2024-25 | 50.2% 544 | 49.7% 499 | 56.8% 44 | 0.0% 1 | 51.0% 204 | 48.4% 186 | 51.3% 154 | 52.1% 263 | 51.7% 172 |
| 2023-24 | 50.0% 452 | 49.7% 394 | 51.7% 58 | — 0 | 49.5% 186 | 47.3% 150 | 54.3% 116 | 53.4% 234 | 50.4% 137 |
| Playoffs (all) | 60.1% 148 | 59.9% 137 | 63.6% 11 | — 0 | 59.4% 64 | 66.0% 47 | 54.1% 37 | 63.6% 77 | 46.0% 50 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Coyle | 16–14 | 53.3% | 48.1% | 48.4% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Anton Lundell | 15–14 | 51.7% | 47.8% | 48.0% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Dylan Larkin | 10–16 | 38.5% | 46.4% | 46.0% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Pavel Zacha | 15–8 | 65.2% | 48.0% | 48.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Sam Bennett | 13–8 | 61.9% | 53.2% | 53.5% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Dylan Cozens | 9–12 | 42.9% | 49.7% | 49.4% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Morgan Frost | 13–7 | 65.0% | 47.1% | 47.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Tomas Nosek | 10–9 | 52.6% | 50.8% | 50.9% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Shane Pinto | 9–10 | 47.4% | 48.5% | 48.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Adam Fantilli | 12–7 | 63.2% | 50.7% | 51.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Brock Nelson | 8–11 | 42.1% | 51.3% | 51.0% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Brayden Schenn | 10–9 | 52.6% | 49.1% | 49.3% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | @ OTT | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs DAL | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs FLA | 11 | 17 | 64.7% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYI | 8 | 14 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs WSH | 11 | 15 | 73.3% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ LAK | 4 | 18 | 22.2% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ SJS | 9 | 16 | 56.3% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ ANA | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ STL | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs NYR | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Max Domi's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Max Domi's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Max Domi win tonight?
When Max Domi has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Max Domi better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.