Draw Duel
Frank Nazar faceoff stats, 2025-26
CHI · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
46.5%
90%: 44.3%–48.8% vs an average regular, on 1,296 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
47.4%
401 won of 846 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
45.2% / 56.7%
571 strong-side, 127 weak-side draws this season
Next game
7.1 FOW
2026-10-06 vs STL: 14 draws at 49.3%, range 3–11
Where Nazar wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 15 | 7 | 46.7% |
| OZ right | 308 | 145 | 47.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 18 | 9 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 23 | 11 | 47.8% |
| Centre | 148 | 71 | 48.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 34 | 17 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 27 | 12 | 44.4% |
| DZ left | 60 | 39 | 65.0% |
| DZ right | 213 | 90 | 42.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L38.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L39.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.6%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 42.6% 47 | 43.2% 37 | 40.0% 5 | 40.0% 5 | 42.9% 21 | 41.7% 12 | 42.9% 14 | 41.2% 34 | 33.3% 3 |
| 2025-26 | 47.4% 846 | 47.8% 626 | 51.2% 168 | 30.8% 52 | 47.1% 323 | 48.0% 250 | 47.3% 273 | 45.2% 571 | 56.7% 127 |
| 2024-25 | 44.6% 381 | 45.2% 314 | 39.5% 38 | 44.8% 29 | 33.9% 118 | 50.8% 130 | 48.1% 133 | 46.2% 225 | 32.3% 65 |
| 2023-24 | 31.8% 22 | 36.8% 19 | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 | 20.0% 5 | 36.4% 11 | 33.3% 6 | 20.0% 10 | 33.3% 3 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Nelson | 10–18 | 35.7% | 46.2% | 45.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Jack Eichel | 14–11 | 56.0% | 49.2% | 49.5% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Barrett Hayton | 15–9 | 62.5% | 44.3% | 45.2% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 10–13 | 43.5% | 42.3% | 42.4% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Jonathan Toews | 6–16 | 27.3% | 37.2% | 36.8% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Ryan Hartman | 11–10 | 52.4% | 50.7% | 50.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 8–12 | 40.0% | 41.4% | 41.3% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 11–8 | 57.9% | 44.1% | 44.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Jake Evans | 8–11 | 42.1% | 45.2% | 45.1% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Erik Haula | 5–13 | 27.8% | 45.0% | 44.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Quinton Byfield | 11–7 | 61.1% | 49.6% | 50.0% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 8–8 | 50.0% | 47.5% | 47.6% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ BUF | 6 | 16 | 37.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ UTA | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ VGK | 8 | 17 | 47.1% |
| 2026-04-15 | vs SJS | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs BUF | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 7 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs CAR | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ SJS | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ SEA | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ EDM | 8 | 14 | 57.1% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs STL likely opponents: Robert Thomas (47%), Mason McTavish (47%)7.1 FOW 3–11
- 2026-10-08 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (39%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (41%)6.0 FOW 2–10
- 2026-10-10 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (39%), Sebastian Aho (44%)6.7 FOW 3–11
FAQ
What is Frank Nazar's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Frank Nazar's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Frank Nazar win tonight?
When Frank Nazar has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Frank Nazar better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.