Draw Duel
Alex Laferriere faceoff stats, 2025-26
LAK · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
43.8%
90%: 40.8%–46.9% vs an average regular, on 593 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
42.3%
198 won of 468 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
39.9% / 38.9%
298 strong-side, 72 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.7 FOW
2026-10-06 vs FLA: 1 draws at 44.7%, range 0–2
Where Laferriere wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 23 | 6 | 26.1% |
| OZ right | 120 | 44 | 36.7% |
| NZ left (att.) | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 24 | 13 | 54.2% |
| Centre | 98 | 51 | 52.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 16 | 6 | 37.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 15 | 5 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 27 | 13 | 48.1% |
| DZ right | 139 | 57 | 41.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R35.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L35.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R36.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L36.9%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R37.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L37.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L56.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L56.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L55.4%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L53.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L53.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R53.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 100.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 42.3% 468 | 42.4% 373 | 52.9% 17 | 39.7% 78 | 35.0% 143 | 49.1% 159 | 42.2% 166 | 39.9% 298 | 38.9% 72 |
| 2024-25 | 37.1% 97 | 37.8% 90 | 33.3% 3 | 25.0% 4 | 28.6% 35 | 37.8% 37 | 48.0% 25 | 42.0% 69 | 20.0% 10 |
| 2023-24 | 53.8% 13 | 58.3% 12 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 8 | 50.0% 4 | 100.0% 1 | 50.0% 12 | — 0 |
| Playoffs (all) | 21.4% 14 | 25.0% 12 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | 50.0% 6 | 0.0% 4 | 0.0% 4 | 20.0% 10 | 50.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 7–9 | 43.8% | 39.1% | 39.2% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 5–9 | 35.7% | 41.7% | 41.5% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Mikael Granlund | 10–3 | 76.9% | 45.4% | 46.2% | unusual (z 2.3) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 7–4 | 63.6% | 46.7% | 47.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| John Tavares | 4–7 | 36.4% | 37.5% | 37.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 6–5 | 54.5% | 39.9% | 40.2% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Robert Thomas | 3–7 | 30.0% | 43.5% | 43.3% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Tomas Hertl | 1–9 | 10.0% | 38.7% | 38.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 3–6 | 33.3% | 44.8% | 44.6% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Roope Hintz | 4–5 | 44.4% | 39.7% | 39.8% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 4–5 | 44.4% | 41.7% | 41.8% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Matty Beniers | 1–7 | 12.5% | 47.3% | 46.7% | a bit unusual (z -2.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ SJS | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-23 | vs COL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-21 | @ COL | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-19 | @ COL | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-16 | @ CGY | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ VAN | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ SEA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs EDM | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs VAN | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
| 2026-04-06 | vs NSH | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs FLA likely opponents: Anton Lundell (43%), Aleksander Barkov (39%)0.7 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-10 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (47%), William Karlsson (40%)0.7 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is Alex Laferriere's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Alex Laferriere's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Alex Laferriere win tonight?
When Alex Laferriere has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Alex Laferriere better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.