Draw Duel
Jake Guentzel faceoff stats, 2025-26
TBL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
44.8%
90%: 42.1%–47.5% vs an average regular, on 934 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
47.8%
209 won of 437 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
51.2% / 39.2%
285 strong-side, 97 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.9 FOW
2026-10-05 vs PHI: 8 draws at 47.3%, range 1–7
Where Guentzel wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 194 | 89 | 45.9% |
| OZ right | 59 | 23 | 39.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 25 | 15 | 60.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| Centre | 55 | 25 | 45.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 16 | 10 | 62.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| DZ left | 50 | 32 | 64.0% |
| DZ right | 25 | 10 | 40.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R36.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L36.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R37.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R37.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L37.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L38.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L57.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L57.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L56.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L54.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L54.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R54.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 62.5% 16 | 50.0% 4 | 72.7% 11 | 0.0% 1 | 66.7% 12 | 100.0% 2 | 0.0% 2 | 75.0% 8 | 50.0% 8 |
| 2025-26 | 47.8% 437 | 49.1% 267 | 45.7% 140 | 46.7% 30 | 44.3% 253 | 50.5% 109 | 56.0% 75 | 51.2% 285 | 39.2% 97 |
| 2024-25 | 46.1% 384 | 46.1% 256 | 47.5% 122 | 16.7% 6 | 50.2% 267 | 40.0% 40 | 35.1% 77 | 47.1% 310 | 41.1% 56 |
| 2023-24 | 26.1% 23 | 27.3% 22 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 25.0% 16 | 20.0% 5 | 50.0% 2 | 38.5% 13 | 0.0% 7 |
| Playoffs (all) | 37.8% 74 | 48.6% 37 | 25.7% 35 | 50.0% 2 | 35.2% 54 | 46.7% 15 | 40.0% 5 | 36.2% 58 | 37.5% 8 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Evans | 16–31 | 34.0% | 39.1% | 38.6% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Ryan McLeod | 8–18 | 30.8% | 46.3% | 45.5% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Anton Lundell | 8–15 | 34.8% | 44.5% | 44.0% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 10–5 | 66.7% | 50.9% | 51.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Shane Pinto | 8–6 | 57.1% | 43.5% | 43.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Sam Reinhart | 9–5 | 64.3% | 51.9% | 52.2% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Dylan Strome | 4–10 | 28.6% | 42.6% | 42.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| John Tavares | 3–11 | 21.4% | 38.2% | 37.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 5–9 | 35.7% | 42.7% | 42.5% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Nick Suzuki | 3–9 | 25.0% | 44.7% | 44.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Jason Dickinson | 9–3 | 75.0% | 49.0% | 49.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Jordan Staal | 4–8 | 33.3% | 40.3% | 40.1% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs WSH | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NYR | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2026-05-03 | vs MTL | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | @ MTL | 1 | 6 | 16.7% |
| 2026-04-29 | vs MTL | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-26 | @ MTL | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | @ MTL | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-21 | vs MTL | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-19 | vs MTL | 2 | 8 | 25.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs DET | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (43%), Noel Acciari (43%)3.9 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-08 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (50%), Ryan Hartman (49%)4.0 FOW 1–7
- 2026-10-10 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (42%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (37%)3.4 FOW 1–6
FAQ
What is Jake Guentzel's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jake Guentzel's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jake Guentzel win tonight?
When Jake Guentzel has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jake Guentzel better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.