Draw Duel
Sam Reinhart faceoff stats, 2025-26
FLA · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
42.9%
90%: 40.2%–45.6% vs an average regular, on 1,470 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
38.1%
56 won of 147 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
35.6% / 41.7%
118 strong-side, 12 weak-side draws this season
Next game
1.8 FOW
2026-10-04 vs ANA: 4 draws at 42.7%, range 0–4
Where Reinhart wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| OZ right | 60 | 20 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (att.) | 12 | 3 | 25.0% |
| Centre | 17 | 9 | 52.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ right | 54 | 21 | 38.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R34.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L35.0%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R35.7%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L36.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R36.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L36.2%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L56.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L55.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L54.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L52.8%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L52.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R52.2%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 20.0% 10 | 20.0% 5 | 20.0% 5 | — 0 | 0.0% 5 | 50.0% 2 | 33.3% 3 | 20.0% 10 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 38.1% 147 | 39.0% 77 | 35.4% 48 | 40.9% 22 | 36.9% 65 | 40.0% 30 | 38.5% 52 | 35.6% 118 | 41.7% 12 |
| 2024-25 | 41.2% 514 | 44.1% 324 | 40.3% 72 | 33.9% 118 | 43.9% 196 | 52.2% 23 | 38.6% 295 | 40.8% 495 | 36.4% 11 |
| 2023-24 | 44.2% 530 | 44.6% 345 | 43.3% 97 | 43.2% 88 | 45.5% 233 | 20.7% 29 | 45.5% 268 | 45.6% 498 | 25.9% 27 |
| Playoffs (all) | 42.4% 269 | 44.9% 185 | 35.9% 39 | 37.8% 45 | 41.7% 115 | 44.4% 9 | 42.8% 145 | 42.7% 253 | 46.2% 13 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares | 7–22 | 24.1% | 38.9% | 38.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Auston Matthews | 10–17 | 37.0% | 36.1% | 36.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Jordan Staal | 6–16 | 27.3% | 35.1% | 34.8% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 7–13 | 35.0% | 37.8% | 37.7% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Sidney Crosby | 9–11 | 45.0% | 39.9% | 40.1% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Pavel Zacha | 7–11 | 38.9% | 41.0% | 41.0% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Sean Couturier | 6–12 | 33.3% | 36.1% | 36.0% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Sebastian Aho | 3–14 | 17.6% | 40.3% | 39.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.9) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 3–13 | 18.8% | 41.4% | 40.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Jake Guentzel | 5–9 | 35.7% | 48.1% | 47.8% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 4–9 | 30.8% | 38.8% | 38.6% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Connor McDavid | 5–7 | 41.7% | 43.0% | 43.0% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | @ SJS | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ CAR | 0 | 5 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-03 | @ NJD | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-01 | @ NYI | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | vs BUF | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs TOR | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | vs BOS | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-02 | vs BUF | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-31 | vs WPG | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs ANA likely opponents: Tim Washe (35%), Mikael Granlund (44%)1.8 FOW 0–4
- 2026-10-06 vs LAK likely opponents: Quinton Byfield (46%), Erik Haula (42%)1.9 FOW 0–4
- 2026-10-10 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (44%), Ryan Hartman (48%)2.0 FOW 0–4
FAQ
What is Sam Reinhart's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Sam Reinhart's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Sam Reinhart win tonight?
When Sam Reinhart has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Sam Reinhart better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.