Draw Duel
Parker Kelly faceoff stats, 2025-26
COL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
41.9%
90%: 39.0%–44.9% vs an average regular, on 956 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
36.1%
69 won of 191 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
40.7% / 30.5%
81 strong-side, 82 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.4 FOW
2026-10-07 vs WPG: 1 draws at 44.8%, range 0–1
Where Kelly wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 42 | 16 | 38.1% |
| OZ right | 18 | 5 | 27.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| NZ right (att.) | 14 | 5 | 35.7% |
| Centre | 28 | 11 | 39.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 6 | 5 | 83.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
| DZ left | 26 | 10 | 38.5% |
| DZ right | 42 | 13 | 31.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R33.7%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L34.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R34.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R35.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L35.2%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L35.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L54.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L54.6%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L53.5%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L51.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L51.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R51.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 36.1% 191 | 36.8% 174 | 0.0% 1 | 31.3% 16 | 35.0% 60 | 39.7% 63 | 33.8% 68 | 40.7% 81 | 30.5% 82 |
| 2024-25 | 43.0% 702 | 44.8% 556 | 0.0% 2 | 36.8% 144 | 40.8% 98 | 44.8% 270 | 42.2% 334 | 47.0% 266 | 39.4% 251 |
| 2023-24 | 23.9% 46 | 22.9% 35 | — 0 | 27.3% 11 | 13.6% 22 | 25.0% 8 | 37.5% 16 | 33.3% 21 | 13.6% 22 |
| Playoffs (all) | 20.0% 15 | 25.0% 12 | — 0 | 0.0% 3 | 28.6% 7 | 20.0% 5 | 0.0% 3 | 28.6% 7 | 0.0% 5 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg | 9–16 | 36.0% | 43.0% | 42.7% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Mason McTavish | 10–7 | 58.8% | 44.1% | 44.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Barrett Hayton | 9–7 | 56.3% | 40.3% | 40.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Dylan Strome | 5–11 | 31.3% | 37.7% | 37.5% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 6–9 | 40.0% | 38.9% | 39.0% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Mark Scheifele | 3–11 | 21.4% | 45.6% | 45.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Sidney Crosby | 1–12 | 7.7% | 36.2% | 35.4% | unusual (z -2.1) |
| Nick Bjugstad | 7–5 | 58.3% | 43.7% | 44.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 6–6 | 50.0% | 37.0% | 37.3% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Steven Stamkos | 4–7 | 36.4% | 39.1% | 39.1% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Robert Thomas | 5–6 | 45.5% | 41.0% | 41.1% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 2–8 | 20.0% | 44.8% | 44.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | vs LAK | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-22 | vs VGK | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-05-20 | vs VGK | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-13 | vs MIN | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-05-09 | @ MIN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-21 | vs LAK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-19 | vs LAK | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ CGY | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs VGK | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs STL | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-07 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (41%), Jonathan Toews (37%)0.4 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-08 vs CGY likely opponents: Mikael Backlund (44%), Morgan Frost (42%)0.4 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs TOR likely opponents: John Tavares (37%), Auston Matthews (38%)0.3 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Parker Kelly's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Parker Kelly's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Parker Kelly win tonight?
When Parker Kelly has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Parker Kelly better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.