Draw Duel
Marco Kasper faceoff stats, 2025-26
DET · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
48.5%
90%: 45.8%–51.2% vs an average regular, on 1,087 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
51.5%
230 won of 447 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
57.6% / 45.3%
210 strong-side, 148 weak-side draws this season
Next game
4.8 FOW
2026-10-04 vs WPG: 9 draws at 51.8%, range 2–8
Where Kasper wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 103 | 58 | 56.3% |
| OZ right | 49 | 22 | 44.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 22 | 13 | 59.1% |
| NZ right (att.) | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| Centre | 89 | 42 | 47.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 12 | 5 | 41.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| DZ left | 73 | 45 | 61.6% |
| DZ right | 83 | 37 | 44.6% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R39.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.9%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.3%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 71.4% 14 | 75.0% 12 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 71.4% 7 | 100.0% 3 | 50.0% 4 | 66.7% 6 | 71.4% 7 |
| 2025-26 | 51.5% 447 | 52.9% 416 | 33.3% 12 | 31.6% 19 | 52.6% 152 | 48.9% 139 | 52.6% 156 | 57.6% 210 | 45.3% 148 |
| 2024-25 | 44.9% 626 | 45.1% 586 | 52.2% 23 | 29.4% 17 | 46.6% 219 | 49.3% 203 | 38.7% 204 | 45.9% 270 | 39.7% 214 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl | 4–21 | 16.0% | 41.0% | 39.8% | unusual (z -2.5) |
| Sebastian Aho | 7–17 | 29.2% | 44.1% | 43.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Dylan Cozens | 7–13 | 35.0% | 48.5% | 48.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Brayden Schenn | 6–12 | 33.3% | 43.8% | 43.5% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Tage Thompson | 14–3 | 82.4% | 54.6% | 55.5% | unusual (z 2.3) |
| John Tavares | 4–12 | 25.0% | 42.6% | 42.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Jake Evans | 6–7 | 46.2% | 43.4% | 43.5% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Shane Pinto | 9–4 | 69.2% | 47.6% | 48.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 5–8 | 38.5% | 41.0% | 40.9% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Pius Suter | 5–7 | 41.7% | 50.7% | 50.5% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Anton Lundell | 4–8 | 33.3% | 48.1% | 47.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Noah Laba | 5–6 | 45.5% | 49.5% | 49.4% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | vs NYR | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
| 2026-04-15 | @ FLA | 6 | 14 | 42.9% |
| 2026-04-13 | @ TBL | 8 | 11 | 72.7% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs NJD | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs PHI | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | vs CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-05 | vs MIN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ NYR | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ PHI | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ PIT | 7 | 12 | 58.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs WPG likely opponents: Adam Lowry (48%), Jonathan Toews (43%)4.8 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-06 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (40%), Lars Eller (48%)4.7 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-09 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (50%), Matty Beniers (53%)5.1 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs MTL likely opponents: Nick Suzuki (47%), Phillip Danault (47%)4.6 FOW 1–8
FAQ
What is Marco Kasper's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Marco Kasper's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Marco Kasper win tonight?
When Marco Kasper has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Marco Kasper better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.