Draw Duel
Morgan Geekie faceoff stats, 2025-26
BOS · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
45.2%
90%: 42.4%–48.1% vs an average regular, on 1,356 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
45.6%
73 won of 160 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
43.0% / 54.1%
107 strong-side, 37 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.8 FOW
2026-10-05 vs OTT: 2 draws at 45.5%, range 0–2
Where Geekie wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| OZ right | 69 | 32 | 46.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| Centre | 16 | 7 | 43.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| DZ right | 27 | 11 | 40.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R36.9%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.2%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R37.9%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L38.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R38.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L38.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L58.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L57.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L56.8%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L54.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R54.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 14.3% 7 | 20.0% 5 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | 0.0% 5 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 16.7% 6 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 45.6% 160 | 45.9% 122 | 48.6% 35 | 0.0% 3 | 47.4% 95 | 42.4% 33 | 43.8% 32 | 43.0% 107 | 54.1% 37 |
| 2024-25 | 46.5% 374 | 45.7% 352 | 63.2% 19 | 33.3% 3 | 51.1% 180 | 43.1% 109 | 41.2% 85 | 48.6% 280 | 60.0% 30 |
| 2023-24 | 44.1% 660 | 43.7% 584 | 47.1% 68 | 50.0% 8 | 38.8% 237 | 42.5% 174 | 50.2% 249 | 45.2% 485 | 44.6% 74 |
| Playoffs (all) | 44.5% 155 | 45.1% 144 | 50.0% 8 | 0.0% 3 | 42.2% 64 | 46.7% 45 | 45.7% 46 | 43.1% 109 | 39.1% 23 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McLeod | 11–13 | 45.8% | 44.4% | 44.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 7–9 | 43.8% | 44.1% | 44.1% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Bo Horvat | 4–11 | 26.7% | 39.2% | 38.8% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Nic Dowd | 6–5 | 54.5% | 48.8% | 48.9% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Marco Kasper | 4–6 | 40.0% | 46.1% | 46.0% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Jake Evans | 5–5 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 46.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Ridly Greig | 3–6 | 33.3% | 44.6% | 44.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Pius Suter | 6–3 | 66.7% | 48.2% | 48.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Shane Pinto | 4–5 | 44.4% | 46.5% | 46.5% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Jordan Staal | 3–6 | 33.3% | 37.2% | 37.1% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Anton Lundell | 4–4 | 50.0% | 42.5% | 42.6% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Leo Carlsson | 4–4 | 50.0% | 52.1% | 52.1% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ MIN | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-10-02 | @ WPG | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs NYR | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | vs BUF | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ BUF | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-26 | vs BUF | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-23 | vs BUF | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ FLA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-29 | @ CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (40%), Lars Eller (44%)0.8 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-08 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (41%), Kevin Stenlund (45%)0.9 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-10 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (42%), Noel Acciari (46%)0.8 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is Morgan Geekie's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Morgan Geekie's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Morgan Geekie win tonight?
When Morgan Geekie has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Morgan Geekie better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.