Draw Duel
Fraser Minten faceoff stats, 2025-26
BOS · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
47.3%
90%: 44.9%–49.6% vs an average regular, on 1,137 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
49.3%
414 won of 839 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.1% / 40.5%
416 strong-side, 232 weak-side draws this season
Next game
5.0 FOW
2026-10-05 vs OTT: 10 draws at 47.7%, range 2–8
Where Minten wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 218 | 121 | 55.5% |
| OZ right | 64 | 23 | 35.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 31 | 15 | 48.4% |
| NZ right (att.) | 28 | 12 | 42.9% |
| Centre | 191 | 99 | 51.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 39 | 22 | 56.4% |
| NZ right (def.) | 36 | 14 | 38.9% |
| DZ left | 128 | 63 | 49.2% |
| DZ right | 104 | 45 | 43.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L39.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R40.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L40.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L60.0%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L57.0%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.7%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 30.8% 26 | 27.3% 22 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 8 | 33.3% 9 | 55.6% 9 | 35.7% 14 | 20.0% 5 |
| 2025-26 | 49.3% 839 | 50.1% 736 | 50.0% 52 | 37.3% 51 | 51.1% 282 | 49.8% 325 | 46.6% 232 | 53.1% 416 | 40.5% 232 |
| 2024-25 | 45.8% 168 | 45.8% 155 | 50.0% 10 | 33.3% 3 | 52.5% 40 | 39.7% 68 | 48.3% 60 | 51.8% 56 | 43.7% 71 |
| 2023-24 | 48.6% 37 | 48.6% 35 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | 37.5% 8 | 50.0% 12 | 52.9% 17 | 71.4% 7 | 45.5% 22 |
| Playoffs (all) | 52.2% 67 | 54.2% 48 | 62.5% 8 | 36.4% 11 | 62.5% 16 | 41.7% 24 | 55.6% 27 | 60.5% 38 | 53.3% 15 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McLeod | 11–19 | 36.7% | 45.8% | 45.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Nico Hischier | 10–13 | 43.5% | 44.3% | 44.2% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Tage Thompson | 18–5 | 78.3% | 54.7% | 55.7% | unusual (z 2.3) |
| J.T. Compher | 8–11 | 42.1% | 50.4% | 50.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Ryan Hartman | 9–9 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 50.8% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Logan Stankoven | 6–11 | 35.3% | 53.2% | 52.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Charlie Coyle | 7–9 | 43.8% | 46.7% | 46.6% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Dylan Strome | 6–9 | 40.0% | 42.6% | 42.5% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Josh Norris | 5–10 | 33.3% | 49.7% | 49.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.3) |
| Anthony Cirelli | 6–8 | 42.9% | 49.7% | 49.5% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Yanni Gourde | 9–4 | 69.2% | 49.1% | 49.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Sam Bennett | 8–4 | 66.7% | 48.1% | 48.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ MIN | 1 | 11 | 9.1% |
| 2026-10-02 | @ WPG | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs NYR | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | vs BUF | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-28 | @ BUF | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-26 | vs BUF | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2026-04-23 | vs BUF | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2026-04-21 | @ BUF | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2026-04-19 | @ BUF | 7 | 14 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs NJD | 8 | 15 | 53.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs OTT likely opponents: Claude Giroux (39%), Lars Eller (48%)5.0 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-08 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (41%), Kevin Stenlund (44%)5.2 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-10 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (46%), Noel Acciari (46%)5.2 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Fraser Minten's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Fraser Minten's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Fraser Minten win tonight?
When Fraser Minten has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Fraser Minten better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.