Draw Duel
Oliver Kapanen faceoff stats, 2025-26
MTL · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
45.7%
90%: 43.1%–48.4% vs an average regular, on 767 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
45.5%
306 won of 672 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
45.9% / 43.7%
399 strong-side, 142 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Kapanen wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 65 | 32 | 49.2% |
| OZ right | 193 | 93 | 48.2% |
| NZ left (att.) | 13 | 7 | 53.8% |
| NZ right (att.) | 30 | 15 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 131 | 61 | 46.6% |
| NZ left (def.) | 27 | 11 | 40.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 25 | 13 | 52.0% |
| DZ left | 37 | 12 | 32.4% |
| DZ right | 151 | 62 | 41.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R37.4%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R38.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L38.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R38.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L38.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L58.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L58.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L57.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L55.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 45.5% 672 | 45.0% 582 | 55.8% 52 | 39.5% 38 | 48.4% 258 | 47.3% 226 | 39.4% 188 | 45.9% 399 | 43.7% 142 |
| 2024-25 | 42.9% 56 | 44.4% 45 | 36.4% 11 | — 0 | 18.8% 16 | 50.0% 26 | 57.1% 14 | 36.6% 41 | 75.0% 4 |
| Playoffs (all) | 53.8% 39 | 53.8% 39 | — 0 | — 0 | 53.3% 15 | 50.0% 20 | 75.0% 4 | 57.1% 21 | 28.6% 7 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 2–17 | 10.5% | 41.5% | 40.3% | unusual (z -2.7) |
| Sam Bennett | 8–9 | 47.1% | 49.5% | 49.4% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Pavel Zacha | 7–8 | 46.7% | 44.2% | 44.3% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Nazem Kadri | 4–11 | 26.7% | 49.3% | 48.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Logan Stankoven | 6–9 | 40.0% | 50.9% | 50.6% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Ryan McLeod | 7–6 | 53.8% | 45.8% | 46.0% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Dylan Strome | 7–6 | 53.8% | 41.4% | 41.7% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Anton Lundell | 6–6 | 50.0% | 44.1% | 44.2% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Peyton Krebs | 9–3 | 75.0% | 49.3% | 49.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Lars Eller | 5–7 | 41.7% | 44.3% | 44.2% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Adam Lowry | 4–7 | 36.4% | 41.7% | 41.6% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Mark Jankowski | 4–7 | 36.4% | 45.2% | 45.0% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | @ CAR | 4 | 5 | 80.0% |
| 2026-05-21 | @ CAR | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
| 2026-05-18 | @ BUF | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-26 | vs TBL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-21 | @ TBL | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-19 | @ TBL | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ PHI | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ NYI | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs CBJ | 2 | 11 | 18.2% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs TBL | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Oliver Kapanen's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Oliver Kapanen's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Oliver Kapanen win tonight?
When Oliver Kapanen has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Oliver Kapanen better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.