Draw Duel
Timo Meier faceoff stats, 2025-26
NJD · R · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
40.4%
90%: 35.8%–45.1% vs an average regular, on 246 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
45.6%
57 won of 125 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
49.0% / 33.3%
96 strong-side, 18 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.2 FOW
2026-10-06 vs UTA: 1 draws at 42.2%, range 0–1
Where Meier wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 56 | 28 | 50.0% |
| OZ right | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 14 | 9 | 64.3% |
| NZ right (att.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
| NZ left (def.) | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| NZ right (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ left | 21 | 8 | 38.1% |
| DZ right | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R32.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L32.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R33.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R33.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L33.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L34.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L53.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L53.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L51.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L50.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L49.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R49.6%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 33.3% 3 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 33.3% 3 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 45.6% 125 | 40.2% 97 | 65.4% 26 | 50.0% 2 | 49.2% 61 | 45.7% 35 | 37.9% 29 | 49.0% 96 | 33.3% 18 |
| 2024-25 | 30.8% 26 | 30.0% 20 | 33.3% 6 | — 0 | 23.8% 21 | 100.0% 1 | 50.0% 4 | 30.4% 23 | 0.0% 2 |
| 2023-24 | 48.9% 90 | 47.4% 57 | 51.5% 33 | — 0 | 45.9% 61 | 54.5% 22 | 57.1% 7 | 49.2% 63 | 47.1% 17 |
| Playoffs (all) | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | — 0 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 0–5 | 0.0% | 45.9% | 45.5% | unusual (z -2.1) |
| Charlie Coyle | 1–4 | 20.0% | 40.2% | 40.0% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Elias Pettersson | 2–2 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.5% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Noel Acciari | 3–1 | 75.0% | 36.8% | 37.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Connor McDavid | 2–2 | 50.0% | 34.5% | 34.6% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Mikael Backlund | 2–2 | 50.0% | 48.0% | 48.0% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 0–4 | 0.0% | 33.0% | 32.7% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Ryan McLeod | 1–2 | 33.3% | 47.7% | 47.6% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Shane Pinto | 0–3 | 0.0% | 38.6% | 38.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Jack Roslovic | 0–3 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Filip Chytil | 0–3 | 0.0% | 42.6% | 42.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
| Ryan Hartman | 0–3 | 0.0% | 44.4% | 44.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | vs PHI | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-14 | @ BOS | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs WSH | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ CAR | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-26 | @ NSH | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-24 | @ DAL | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-16 | vs BOS | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-14 | vs LAK | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | vs CGY | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-07 | vs NYR | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (34%), Kevin Stenlund (37%)0.2 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (47%), Aatu Räty (35%)0.2 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Timo Meier's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Timo Meier's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Timo Meier win tonight?
When Timo Meier has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Timo Meier better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.