Draw Duel
Jack Roslovic faceoff stats, 2025-26
TOR · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
50.4%
90%: 47.4%–53.3% vs an average regular, on 907 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
53.0%
142 won of 268 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
58.2% / 35.1%
184 strong-side, 37 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.4 FOW
2026-10-06 vs NSH: 1 draws at 52.5%, range 0–1
Where Roslovic wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 19 | 8 | 42.1% |
| OZ right | 114 | 66 | 57.9% |
| NZ left (att.) | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| NZ right (att.) | 10 | 6 | 60.0% |
| Centre | 47 | 22 | 46.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 5 | 1 | 20.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 13 | 8 | 61.5% |
| DZ left | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| DZ right | 47 | 27 | 57.4% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R41.9%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L42.1%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R42.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L43.2%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R43.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L43.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L63.2%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L62.9%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L61.7%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L60.1%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L59.8%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R59.5%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 62.5% 8 | 60.0% 5 | 66.7% 3 | — 0 | 62.5% 8 | — 0 | — 0 | 71.4% 7 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2025-26 | 53.0% 268 | 52.7% 245 | 56.5% 23 | — 0 | 55.6% 133 | 46.9% 81 | 55.6% 54 | 58.2% 184 | 35.1% 37 |
| 2024-25 | 54.1% 355 | 55.2% 299 | 49.1% 55 | 0.0% 1 | 53.0% 166 | 47.4% 97 | 63.0% 92 | 55.6% 232 | 55.3% 76 |
| 2023-24 | 42.9% 126 | 44.3% 106 | 46.2% 13 | 14.3% 7 | 40.6% 69 | 54.5% 22 | 40.0% 35 | 45.6% 90 | 23.1% 26 |
| Playoffs (all) | 55.3% 150 | 55.3% 141 | 55.6% 9 | — 0 | 62.9% 62 | 48.2% 56 | 53.1% 32 | 52.7% 91 | 67.9% 28 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Dowd | 15–13 | 53.6% | 51.3% | 51.5% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Anton Lundell | 10–10 | 50.0% | 48.5% | 48.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Ryan Poehling | 9–11 | 45.0% | 50.6% | 50.4% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Justin Dowling | 10–8 | 55.6% | 53.3% | 53.3% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Lars Eller | 9–7 | 56.3% | 48.4% | 48.6% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Leo Carlsson | 8–7 | 53.3% | 58.7% | 58.5% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | 7–7 | 50.0% | 53.1% | 53.0% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Casey Cizikas | 7–6 | 53.8% | 47.3% | 47.4% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Nico Hischier | 3–9 | 25.0% | 45.0% | 44.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| J.T. Compher | 10–2 | 83.3% | 56.5% | 57.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Phillip Danault | 8–4 | 66.7% | 47.1% | 47.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Erik Haula | 6–6 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 50.8% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs OTT | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-09-30 | vs NYI | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | vs MTL | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-30 | @ ANA | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | vs ANA | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2026-04-26 | @ ANA | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-24 | @ ANA | 5 | 5 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-22 | vs ANA | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | vs ANA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-16 | vs VAN | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs NSH likely opponents: Ryan O'Reilly (48%), Jack Drury (44%)0.4 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-08 vs VGK likely opponents: Jack Eichel (54%), William Karlsson (47%)0.4 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-10 vs COL likely opponents: Brock Nelson (51%), Nathan MacKinnon (53%)0.4 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Jack Roslovic's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jack Roslovic's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jack Roslovic win tonight?
When Jack Roslovic has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jack Roslovic better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.