Draw Duel
Justin Dowling faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYR · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
47.5%
90%: 43.4%–51.6% vs an average regular, on 391 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
33.3%
1 won of 3 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
0.0% / 100.0%
1 strong-side, 1 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Dowling wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 62 | 35 | 56.5% |
| OZ right | 24 | 9 | 37.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 19 | 8 | 42.1% |
| NZ right (att.) | 16 | 3 | 18.8% |
| Centre | 89 | 47 | 52.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 19 | 12 | 63.2% |
| NZ right (def.) | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
| DZ left | 41 | 18 | 43.9% |
| DZ right | 50 | 24 | 48.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L39.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.9%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R40.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L40.5%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L60.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.9%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L57.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.9%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 33.3% 3 | 33.3% 3 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | 100.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 |
| 2024-25 | 48.3% 327 | 48.7% 318 | 20.0% 5 | 50.0% 4 | 51.2% 86 | 48.3% 151 | 45.6% 90 | 52.1% 140 | 38.4% 99 |
| 2023-24 | 30.8% 13 | 33.3% 12 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 3 | 40.0% 5 | 40.0% 5 | 22.2% 9 | 50.0% 2 |
| Playoffs (all) | 45.8% 48 | 45.8% 48 | — 0 | — 0 | 53.8% 13 | 63.6% 11 | 33.3% 24 | 51.9% 27 | 16.7% 12 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic | 8–10 | 44.4% | 46.7% | 46.7% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Mark Jankowski | 7–6 | 53.8% | 49.2% | 49.4% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Shane Wright | 5–5 | 50.0% | 56.8% | 56.6% | normal luck (z -0.4) |
| Sam Carrick | 3–6 | 33.3% | 45.3% | 45.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 3–6 | 33.3% | 47.1% | 46.9% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Tomas Nosek | 5–3 | 62.5% | 49.3% | 49.5% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Mika Zibanejad | 5–3 | 62.5% | 45.5% | 45.8% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Jordan Staal | 3–5 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 40.6% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Steven Stamkos | 3–5 | 37.5% | 45.7% | 45.5% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Casey Mittelstadt | 2–5 | 28.6% | 50.3% | 50.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Jake Evans | 3–4 | 42.9% | 43.2% | 43.2% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Marco Kasper | 5–2 | 71.4% | 49.0% | 49.3% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | vs UTA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | @ FLA | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-29 | @ CAR | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2025-04-27 | vs CAR | 4 | 10 | 40.0% |
| 2025-04-25 | vs CAR | 4 | 11 | 36.4% |
| 2025-04-22 | @ CAR | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2025-04-20 | @ CAR | 6 | 11 | 54.5% |
| 2025-04-16 | vs DET | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
| 2025-04-13 | vs NYI | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2025-04-08 | vs BOS | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Justin Dowling's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Justin Dowling's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Justin Dowling win tonight?
When Justin Dowling has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Justin Dowling better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.