Draw Duel
Casey Cizikas faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYI · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
53.1%
90%: 50.8%–55.3% vs an average regular, on 1,919 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
54.7%
351 won of 642 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
58.8% / 49.5%
274 strong-side, 218 weak-side draws this season
Next game
3.6 FOW
2026-10-06 vs NYR: 7 draws at 52.4%, range 1–6
Where Cizikas wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 107 | 63 | 58.9% |
| OZ right | 67 | 29 | 43.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 24 | 13 | 54.2% |
| NZ right (att.) | 23 | 14 | 60.9% |
| Centre | 150 | 82 | 54.7% |
| NZ left (def.) | 28 | 17 | 60.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 21 | 12 | 57.1% |
| DZ left | 115 | 68 | 59.1% |
| DZ right | 107 | 53 | 49.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R44.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L44.9%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R45.3%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R45.8%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L45.9%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L46.1%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L65.3%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L65.0%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L64.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L62.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R62.2%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L62.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 53.3% 15 | 66.7% 9 | — 0 | 33.3% 6 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 6 | 57.1% 7 | 42.9% 7 | 66.7% 3 |
| 2025-26 | 54.7% 642 | 55.0% 596 | 100.0% 3 | 46.5% 43 | 52.9% 174 | 56.1% 246 | 54.5% 222 | 58.8% 274 | 49.5% 218 |
| 2024-25 | 55.2% 611 | 56.4% 576 | 50.0% 2 | 33.3% 33 | 60.2% 161 | 57.1% 224 | 49.6% 226 | 62.0% 279 | 44.0% 191 |
| 2023-24 | 53.4% 646 | 53.7% 525 | 100.0% 1 | 51.7% 120 | 56.8% 95 | 54.7% 234 | 51.4% 317 | 59.7% 258 | 44.7% 208 |
| Playoffs (all) | 20.0% 5 | 0.0% 4 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | 0.0% 3 | 100.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 3 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Couturier | 17–8 | 68.0% | 50.8% | 51.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Yanni Gourde | 7–13 | 35.0% | 55.2% | 54.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Dylan Strome | 10–8 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 51.6% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Lars Eller | 12–6 | 66.7% | 52.1% | 52.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Tage Thompson | 6–11 | 35.3% | 60.5% | 59.7% | unusual (z -2.1) |
| Erik Haula | 8–8 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 50.6% | normal luck (z -0.0) |
| Mason McTavish | 7–8 | 46.7% | 54.1% | 53.9% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Christian Dvorak | 8–6 | 57.1% | 50.0% | 50.2% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Sebastian Aho | 10–4 | 71.4% | 54.3% | 54.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Phillip Danault | 9–5 | 64.3% | 51.1% | 51.4% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Jordan Staal | 5–9 | 35.7% | 50.8% | 50.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Evgeni Malkin | 7–7 | 50.0% | 54.5% | 54.4% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs NJD | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-09-30 | @ TOR | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-14 | vs CAR | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-12 | vs MTL | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs OTT | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs TOR | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ CAR | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| 2026-04-03 | vs PHI | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | @ BUF | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| 2026-03-30 | vs PIT | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (47%), Mika Zibanejad (51%)3.6 FOW 1–6
- 2026-10-08 vs CHI likely opponents: Frank Nazar (58%), Anton Frondell (72%)4.4 FOW 2–7
- 2026-10-10 vs TBL likely opponents: Anthony Cirelli (58%), Brayden Point (58%)4.0 FOW 1–7
FAQ
What is Casey Cizikas's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Casey Cizikas's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Casey Cizikas win tonight?
When Casey Cizikas has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Casey Cizikas better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.