Edgehalla

NHL Projected Shorthanded Assists for Today

Shorthanded assists are even rarer than shorthanded goals. These projections estimate the share of each player's projected assists that come on the penalty kill, from his recent penalty-kill minutes and a rate that is shrunk almost all the way to the league average. The ranking mostly tells you who kills penalties.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Updated (hourly)
2 games • 80 players

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

Shorthanded scoring is rare and streaky: even the leaders score only a few a season. These projections are driven mostly by penalty-kill ice time, with each team’s total held to the league’s shorthanded share of its projected goals and assists. How the model works

Sorted by Projected Short Handed Assists

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PlayerTeamPosOppRost%SHA† ↓GAnytime%APTSSOGHITBLKPIMPPG†PPA†PPP†SHG†SHP†GWG†FOW†FOL†FO%†TK†GV†+/-†TOISFT†FPTS
Tom WilsonWSHRWvs MTL94.2%0.020.4032.9%0.500.901.992.600.901.100.090.110.200.020.040.060.180.22-0.290.99-0.0219:4023.087.79
Alex TuchWSHRWvs MTL93.8%0.020.4032.8%0.400.802.530.901.200.500.060.070.130.020.040.050.770.93-0.410.92-0.0219:0924.648.09
Aliaksei ProtasWSHLWvs MTL52.3%0.020.2320.7%0.400.631.690.400.600.200.010.010.020.010.030.030.380.43-0.280.87-0.0216:0021.246.00
Jake EvansMTLC@ WSH4.9%0.010.1412.8%0.200.340.961.200.700.300.000.000.000.020.030.027.106.0853.9%0.260.72-0.0213:0819.863.12
Miro HeiskanenDALD@ COL98.1%0.010.1412.6%0.600.741.930.301.400.400.040.220.260.000.020.020.000.00-0.381.31-0.1826:0325.446.71
Boone JennerWSHCvs MTL23.1%0.010.2219.9%0.300.521.771.901.000.500.010.010.020.010.020.034.233.5254.6%0.250.82-0.0215:1321.165.53
Noah DobsonMTLD@ WSH93.8%0.010.1210.9%0.400.521.660.901.700.400.020.070.090.000.010.020.000.00-0.371.22-0.0320:0927.185.69
Phillip DanaultMTLC@ WSH4.9%0.010.098.5%0.200.291.160.800.500.300.000.010.010.010.020.017.506.4853.7%0.240.77-0.0215:0621.523.23
Devon ToewsCOLDvs DAL72.7%0.010.087.9%0.400.481.470.501.300.400.020.100.120.000.010.010.000.00-0.431.200.3822:5827.945.90
Cale MakarCOLDvs DAL100.0%0.010.2522.2%0.700.952.600.401.700.300.100.310.400.000.010.040.000.00-0.401.270.3725:0025.899.90
Alexandre CarrierMTLD@ WSH13.3%0.010.098.7%0.200.290.810.701.700.400.000.000.000.000.010.010.000.00-0.300.96-0.0318:1824.604.15
Arttu HyryDALC@ COL4.0%0.010.1412.7%0.100.141.231.500.400.100.000.000.000.020.030.024.913.9155.7%0.180.56-0.1013:0615.922.12
Parker KellyCOLLWvs DAL17.7%0.010.2320.3%0.200.431.152.000.900.400.000.000.010.020.030.041.531.9144.5%0.210.660.2212:5318.264.36
Brock NelsonCOLCvs DAL86.6%0.010.3327.8%0.300.631.850.400.800.400.070.070.140.020.030.068.518.4550.2%0.290.870.2918:3923.476.45
Josh MansonCOLDvs DAL36.0%0.010.077.0%0.300.271.312.001.401.000.000.010.010.000.010.010.000.00-0.250.980.3118:2322.964.74
Martin FehervaryWSHDvs MTL25.1%0.010.066.1%0.200.260.931.602.200.400.000.000.000.000.010.010.000.00-0.240.99-0.0322:0622.294.38
Esa LindellDALD@ COL31.8%0.010.065.6%0.200.260.830.401.900.200.000.020.020.000.010.010.000.00-0.321.21-0.1820:3424.294.34
Brent BurnsCOLDvs DAL46.7%0.010.1110.2%0.300.311.690.201.100.400.000.010.020.000.010.020.000.00-0.271.060.3518:1525.074.74
Artturi LehkonenCOLLWvs DAL75.9%0.010.3328.2%0.300.631.870.600.600.300.060.050.120.020.020.060.110.14-0.300.920.3119:3923.916.69
Alex NewhookMTLLW@ WSH24.6%0.010.2824.1%0.200.481.571.100.400.300.040.030.070.020.030.043.833.7950.3%0.230.73-0.0215:5219.724.15
Sam SteelDALC@ COL5.8%0.010.1816.2%0.200.481.260.800.400.300.010.010.010.010.020.021.871.8051.0%0.230.72-0.1216:2118.973.46
Kaiden GuhleMTLD@ WSH17.9%0.010.055.2%0.200.250.992.001.500.700.000.000.000.000.010.010.000.00-0.341.05-0.0318:3923.793.72
Nick SuzukiMTLC@ WSH99.9%0.010.4033.1%0.701.102.490.900.600.300.110.230.340.010.020.058.938.6950.7%0.341.09-0.0221:5722.409.01
Nicolas RoyCOLCvs DAL12.1%0.010.1211.1%0.200.320.890.900.600.500.010.010.020.010.010.024.984.5252.4%0.250.750.2412:0219.092.81
Zachary L'HeureuxNew team · 4 GP with COLCOLLWvs DAL11.2%0.010.109.8%0.100.201.202.500.601.000.000.000.010.010.020.020.080.09-0.190.600.2112:1816.882.82
Jakob ChychrunWSHDvs MTL99.0%0.010.3126.8%0.500.712.500.701.500.800.100.160.260.000.010.040.000.00-0.351.23-0.0325:0322.638.47
Timothy LiljegrenWSHDvs MTL4.8%0.010.054.9%0.200.250.940.901.800.400.000.010.010.000.010.010.000.00-0.261.01-0.0318:3723.173.30
Oskar BackDALLW@ COL0.2%0.010.087.8%0.100.280.720.400.500.100.000.000.000.010.010.010.650.66-0.200.57-0.1012:4616.372.29
Radek FaksaDALC@ COL0.1%0.010.055.3%0.100.250.741.200.600.300.000.000.000.010.010.014.344.0951.5%0.200.54-0.1010:2917.372.42
Vincent DesharnaisWSHDvs MTL4.2%0.010.032.5%0.100.130.731.901.600.800.000.000.000.000.010.000.000.00-0.220.94-0.0219:1020.653.05
Josh AndersonMTLRW@ WSH11.1%0.010.2018.0%0.100.301.301.800.401.100.000.000.000.020.020.030.220.23-0.210.66-0.0213:1618.943.19
Joel KivirantaNew team · 2 GP with DALDALLW@ COL0.1%0.010.109.9%0.100.200.901.300.400.200.000.000.000.010.010.010.150.17-0.180.59-0.0911:3016.902.73
Thomas HarleyDALD@ COL83.2%0.000.087.3%0.300.381.630.501.700.300.010.050.070.000.010.010.000.00-0.411.23-0.1823:5124.985.56
Brett KulakCOLDvs DAL4.3%0.000.021.6%0.200.220.950.301.500.300.000.010.010.000.000.000.000.00-0.260.990.3418:3823.213.60
Nathan MacKinnonCOLCvs DAL99.9%0.000.6044.9%0.901.503.280.600.500.600.180.280.460.000.010.118.888.8150.2%0.341.350.3220:4123.7112.88
Justin HryckowianDALC@ COL15.3%0.000.1614.6%0.200.261.131.600.500.400.020.020.040.010.010.022.351.9654.5%0.230.59-0.1014:1417.522.85
Justin SourdifWSHCvs MTL15.4%0.000.1615.1%0.300.461.221.300.500.400.010.020.030.000.010.023.934.3447.5%0.220.71-0.0213:2619.124.38
Anthony BeauvillierWSHRWvs MTL4.1%0.000.1311.8%0.200.331.271.100.500.200.000.010.010.000.010.020.380.43-0.210.62-0.0212:0618.003.75
Colin BlackwellDALRW@ COL0.1%0.000.065.8%0.100.160.821.400.400.400.000.000.000.000.010.011.842.0547.4%0.200.53-0.099:4715.991.66
Justin HollWSHDvs MTL0.1%0.000.000.0%0.100.100.601.101.300.400.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.220.77-0.0214:5418.132.30
Sam MalinskiCOLDvs DAL44.2%0.000.087.6%0.200.281.650.501.300.300.010.020.020.000.000.010.000.00-0.270.860.2917:4320.865.08
Arber XhekajMTLD@ WSH8.6%0.000.021.9%0.100.120.522.400.601.300.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.170.65-0.029:5415.631.41
Lane HutsonMTLD@ WSH99.0%0.000.1615.1%0.700.861.740.401.300.400.060.260.320.000.000.020.000.00-0.401.24-0.0325:4024.437.38
Tyler MyersDALD@ COL3.3%0.000.021.5%0.100.220.901.101.400.700.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.271.02-0.1614:5024.062.79
Kirby DachMTLC@ WSH10.5%0.000.1211.1%0.200.320.901.500.600.700.020.030.040.000.010.021.401.58-0.210.68-0.029:0017.422.81
Martin NecasCOLRWvs DAL99.9%0.000.4838.1%0.601.182.440.900.300.300.150.200.350.000.010.090.280.29-0.331.090.2821:3621.109.48
Roope HintzDALC@ COL83.0%0.000.2824.2%0.400.782.251.000.400.300.080.120.190.000.010.047.465.8556.0%0.250.85-0.1217:5121.076.86
Lian BichselDALD@ COL20.2%0.000.066.1%0.100.060.682.800.800.800.000.000.000.000.000.010.000.00-0.210.76-0.1215:4218.121.88
Fedor SvechkovCOLCvs DAL8.8%0.000.098.7%0.200.290.940.700.600.400.000.010.010.000.000.023.244.1244.1%0.200.630.2212:3515.822.45
Kyle CapobiancoDALD@ COL0.1%0.000.011.3%0.100.110.440.300.700.200.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.180.63-0.108:0214.721.88
Chris KreiderMTLLW@ WSH61.6%0.000.2521.8%0.300.551.601.100.300.300.070.090.170.000.010.030.290.35-0.260.77-0.0214:3521.144.47
Noah JuulsenNew team · 4 GP with COLCOLDvs DAL0.1%0.000.022.2%0.100.120.562.001.300.500.000.000.010.000.000.000.000.00-0.230.790.2513:1821.262.24
Nazem KadriCOLCvs DAL69.5%0.000.2017.8%0.400.602.600.600.500.500.050.130.190.000.000.035.906.6746.9%0.300.990.2820:0022.215.78
Dylan StromeWSHCvs MTL81.0%0.000.2018.2%0.600.801.790.200.700.400.050.170.220.000.000.038.937.2455.2%0.260.88-0.0217:2920.406.61
Juraj SlafkovskyMTLRW@ WSH97.5%0.000.3529.3%0.500.752.391.400.700.500.100.160.270.000.000.050.290.40-0.290.96-0.0218:5320.177.08
Jaden SchwartzCOLLWvs DAL30.3%0.000.2119.0%0.200.511.260.500.600.300.030.040.070.000.000.040.420.45-0.300.820.2712:5121.414.57
Alexandre TexierMTLLW@ WSH4.9%0.000.1312.6%0.300.431.421.100.300.400.020.050.070.000.000.020.090.12-0.210.59-0.0213:2216.624.01
Nils LundkvistDALD@ COL5.6%0.000.055.0%0.200.250.920.500.800.400.000.010.010.000.000.010.000.00-0.190.80-0.1216:5718.953.21
Gabriel LandeskogCOLLWvs DAL46.7%0.000.2118.6%0.300.612.051.400.600.700.050.070.120.000.000.042.171.8454.0%0.250.790.2517:1220.135.93
Ilya ProtasWSHLWvs MTL40.4%0.000.1110.6%0.300.411.210.600.500.300.020.070.090.000.000.024.175.1344.8%0.230.73-0.0213:0717.713.57
Cole CaufieldMTLLW@ WSH99.9%0.000.6447.5%0.400.943.010.600.200.200.190.140.330.000.000.090.110.13-0.280.83-0.0219:1920.959.16
Alex OvechkinWSHLWvs MTL92.2%0.000.2925.4%0.400.692.421.500.200.200.090.130.220.000.000.040.020.02-0.230.80-0.0215:2619.756.55
Cole HutsonWSHDvs MTL87.4%0.000.1514.1%0.500.651.651.000.800.500.040.140.170.000.000.020.000.00-0.261.00-0.0219:2822.966.02
Jordan KyrouWSHRWvs MTL69.0%0.000.1917.4%0.400.591.720.300.400.200.040.090.130.000.000.030.120.16-0.280.84-0.0213:0820.665.65
Mikko RantanenDALRW@ COL98.8%0.000.3428.7%0.701.042.300.700.400.900.090.230.320.000.000.050.900.99-0.351.08-0.1421:4121.718.13
Tyler SeguinDALRW@ COL18.2%0.000.2522.2%0.300.551.720.600.200.200.040.050.090.000.000.033.503.2352.0%0.230.75-0.1215:5319.855.11
Adam EngstromMTLD@ WSH6.4%0.000.021.9%0.100.120.790.500.600.300.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.260.99-0.0212:0825.392.32
Ryan LeonardWSHRWvs MTL67.2%0.000.2622.9%0.500.761.961.800.400.700.060.130.190.000.000.040.060.07-0.220.72-0.0214:2817.536.76
Ethen FrankWSHRWvs MTL0.1%0.000.1412.9%0.200.341.040.800.700.200.030.040.060.000.000.020.040.05-0.180.55-0.019:3415.964.03
Jason RobertsonDALLW@ COL99.1%0.000.4737.5%0.601.073.280.700.300.300.130.200.340.000.000.060.030.04-0.321.02-0.1321:1420.119.32
Jamie BennDALLW@ COL19.0%0.000.2119.1%0.300.511.161.300.300.700.020.040.060.000.000.031.381.39-0.210.69-0.1112:3619.733.77
Zachary BolducMTLLW@ WSH24.3%0.000.2018.2%0.200.401.452.000.400.300.040.040.070.000.000.030.180.22-0.200.74-0.0213:5715.974.21
Dylan McIlrathWSHDvs MTL0.1%0.000.011.4%0.000.010.401.800.300.700.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.130.47-0.019:1212.630.49
Owen BeckMTLC@ WSH8.0%0.000.087.3%0.100.180.931.600.500.300.000.000.000.000.000.012.212.0352.1%0.150.47-0.019:1512.742.16
Florian XhekajMTLLW@ WSH7.3%0.000.087.6%0.200.281.100.800.300.200.000.000.010.000.000.010.170.21-0.160.49-0.019:4812.732.37
T.J. HughesCOLRWvs DAL22.6%0.000.1311.8%0.200.331.780.700.400.300.060.100.160.000.000.021.391.51-0.170.500.1214:2911.522.96

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Start from total assists. Each player's goals come from Edgehalla's goal model tonight (LineupExperts for longer ranges); assists and ice time from LineupExperts. Our model splits those goals and assists between even strength, the power play and the penalty kill in proportion to the minutes the player has been getting in each situation (recent games weighted most) times his shrunk scoring rate per 60 minutes there.

Nearly pooled rates. Individual shorthanded assist rates barely repeat from season to season, so the model leans on the league average for the position, scaled by penalty-kill minutes.

Team check. Each team's projected shorthanded assists are scaled to the league's shorthanded share of that team's projected assists.

Variance warning

totals are small and noisy. In our backtest the top predicted deciles were off by more than 10% in both test seasons, so treat this page as a deployment guide.

💡
Pro Tip: Shorthanded assists are bonus production. Do not pick a player for them alone.

Shorthanded points

Goals and assists while shorthanded together.

Shorthanded Points

Shorthanded goals

The goal side of shorthanded scoring.

Shorthanded Goals

Penalty-kill deployment

Check who is killing penalties now.

Line Combinations

Related Projections

Frequently Asked Questions

LineupExperts' projected assists are split by strength using recent penalty-kill minutes times a shorthanded assist rate shrunk heavily toward the league average, then each team's total is scaled to the league shorthanded share of its projected assists.
Players with the most penalty-kill time, forwards and defensemen alike. The model has little player-specific signal beyond ice time.
Rarely. They are too infrequent and too noisy to chase; they reward owning regular penalty killers.
It beats a naive per-game rate comfortably, but its calibration at the top failed our ±10% bar in both backtest seasons. It is one of our least certain categories.

Projections by Category

Find projected leaders for specific stats

Scoring Projections

Goals, assists, and points leaders

Peripheral Stats

SOG, hits, blocks, ice time, giveaways and shifts

Faceoff & Physical

Faceoffs won, lost and FO%, PIM, takeaways and +/-

Goalie Projections

Starts, wins, losses, saves, SV% and GAA

Fantasy Points

Standard, DraftKings, and FanDuel

NHL Team Projections

Click a team to see today player projections