NHL Projected Game-Winning Goals Today

Game-winning goals count in some Yahoo and ESPN category leagues. There is no individual game-winning-goal skill: a player's share of his goals that turn out to be winners barely repeats from one season to the next (correlation about 0.09). So this projection is simply projected goals times how many of his team's goals are expected to be game-winners, which comes from the team's projected wins. The best goal scorers on teams projected to win lead the list.

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Sunday, Oct 4

Sunday, October 4, 2026

Updated: 5:29 PM UTC(hourly)

5 games • 210 players

What counts as a GWG

the goal that puts the winning team one ahead of the loser's final total (the loser's final score + 1). Shootout winners are not game-winning goals.

The model

every win outside the shootout has exactly one game-winning goal. For each team we take its goalies' projected wins, remove the league's share of wins decided in a shootout, and divide by the team's projected goals. That gives the share of the team's goals expected to be game-winners. Each player's projected GWG is his projected goals times that share.

Why no player skill

across seasons a player's game-winners per goal correlate at only about 0.09 year to year: it is luck and team context, not a repeatable skill. Projections that rank "clutch" players higher would be chasing noise.

Track record

in our 2025-26 backtest the projection beat a naive current-season rate at every cutoff, and the top three deciles landed within 6% of the actual totals.

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Pro Tip: GWG follows goals and team wins. If you need the category, prioritise top goal scorers on strong teams rather than players with a hot GWG streak.

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

How the model works

Sorted by Projected Game Winning Goals

200 players

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Skaters100 of 200

Player	Team	Pos	Opp	Rost%	GWG^† ↓	G	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPG^†	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHG^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	FOW^†	FOL^†	FO%^†	TK^†	GV^†	+/-^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
Sam Reinhart	FLA	RW	@ ANA	99.5%	0.09	0.50	0.50	0.90	2.70	0.90	0.60	0.20	0.18	0.20	0.38	0.02	0.01	0.03	1.58	2.01	44.0%	0.31	0.97	-0.11	21:06	24.17	8.30
Cutter Gauthier	ANA	LW	vs FLA	98.2%	0.08	0.40	0.30	0.70	3.50	1.10	0.40	0.40	0.10	0.08	0.18	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.97	1.10	-	0.26	0.84	0.04	15:48	19.18	7.70
Leo Carlsson	ANA	C	vs FLA	94.2%	0.08	0.40	0.40	0.80	2.60	0.30	0.60	0.40	0.10	0.12	0.22	0.01	0.00	0.01	5.60	6.77	45.3%	0.31	0.88	0.04	17:42	20.94	7.50
Kyle Connor	WPG	LW	@ DET	99.2%	0.08	0.40	0.50	0.80	2.60	0.30	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.14	0.23	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.02	-	0.32	0.97	-0.08	21:06	22.34	7.40
Alex DeBrincat	DET	LW	vs WPG	99.7%	0.08	0.50	0.50	1.10	3.80	0.50	0.50	0.30	0.14	0.14	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.30	0.37	-	0.34	0.91	0.04	18:12	21.12	9.70
Jordan Eberle	SEA	RW	vs CGY	30.3%	0.06	0.40	0.40	0.80	2.30	0.60	0.60	0.40	0.10	0.11	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.21	-	0.29	0.83	0.34	17:42	21.38	6.90
Jared McCann	SEA	LW	vs CGY	71.6%	0.06	0.40	0.60	1.00	2.70	0.80	0.50	0.30	0.11	0.18	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59	0.70	-	0.27	0.86	0.32	16:54	21.78	8.00
Bobby McMann	SEA	LW	vs CGY	43.8%	0.06	0.40	0.30	0.70	2.90	2.30	0.50	0.50	0.06	0.04	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.13	0.13	-	0.24	0.72	0.32	15:12	19.37	6.90
Viktor Arvidsson	DET	RW	vs WPG	32.5%	0.06	0.40	0.50	0.90	3.20	0.40	0.50	0.50	0.09	0.11	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.19	-	0.23	0.73	0.03	14:36	17.99	8.10
Lucas Raymond	DET	RW	vs WPG	95.6%	0.06	0.40	0.70	1.10	2.70	0.60	0.30	0.30	0.10	0.21	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.02	-	0.31	0.95	0.04	18:48	22.26	8.30
Pavel Dorofeyev	NYR	RW	vs UTA	92.5%	0.06	0.30	0.30	0.60	2.50	0.30	0.50	0.30	0.09	0.10	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.03	-	0.27	0.79	-0.14	17:00	19.39	6.30
Mark Scheifele	WPG	C	@ DET	99.4%	0.06	0.30	0.50	0.90	1.70	0.50	0.50	0.60	0.07	0.14	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.25	7.85	48.0%	0.37	1.18	-0.08	20:54	21.32	6.90
Gabriel Vilardi	WPG	RW	@ DET	80.0%	0.06	0.30	0.30	0.60	1.50	0.30	0.50	0.30	0.08	0.09	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.75	0.76	-	0.27	0.88	-0.07	18:30	19.79	5.40
Dylan Guenther	UTA	RW	@ NYR	99.2%	0.05	0.40	0.40	0.80	2.80	1.00	0.40	0.30	0.12	0.13	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.40	-	0.28	0.87	0.20	17:18	21.55	7.80
Matthew Tkachuk	FLA	RW	@ ANA	99.7%	0.05	0.30	0.70	1.00	3.00	1.00	0.20	0.80	0.12	0.29	0.41	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.14	-	0.28	0.96	-0.09	18:18	20.44	8.40
Brady Tkachuk	FLA	LW	@ ANA	99.6%	0.05	0.30	0.40	0.70	3.90	2.30	0.30	1.10	0.10	0.15	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.55	2.32	52.4%	0.27	0.83	-0.09	17:48	24.22	8.10
Matthew Beniers	SEA	C	vs CGY	49.6%	0.05	0.30	0.50	0.90	2.00	0.60	1.00	0.30	0.07	0.12	0.19	0.01	0.00	0.01	6.45	6.94	48.2%	0.31	0.94	0.37	18:54	22.36	7.10
Matthew Samoskevich	SEA	LW	vs CGY	25.0%	0.05	0.30	0.30	0.50	2.50	2.10	0.50	0.40	0.04	0.04	0.08	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.49	0.58	-	0.22	0.68	0.30	13:54	17.51	5.50
Jack Eichel	LV	C	@ VAN	98.9%	0.05	0.50	1.00	1.50	3.80	0.50	0.70	0.20	0.13	0.37	0.50	0.02	0.01	0.03	7.72	8.35	48.0%	0.37	1.16	0.09	21:06	22.81	12.70
Brock Boeser	VAN	RW	vs LV	63.9%	0.05	0.30	0.40	0.70	2.00	0.70	0.40	0.10	0.07	0.12	0.20	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.65	0.84	-	0.28	0.98	-0.19	18:42	21.73	5.40
Jake Debrusk	VAN	RW	vs LV	48.8%	0.05	0.30	0.30	0.50	2.20	0.70	0.40	0.20	0.09	0.08	0.17	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.18	0.22	-	0.25	0.76	-0.17	16:48	21.43	4.90
Marco Rossi	VAN	C	vs LV	59.7%	0.05	0.30	0.40	0.70	1.50	0.70	0.50	0.30	0.06	0.10	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.01	5.56	5.79	49.0%	0.28	0.83	-0.18	17:36	20.49	5.30
Clayton Keller	UTA	LW	@ NYR	99.9%	0.04	0.30	0.60	0.90	2.20	0.10	0.40	0.40	0.07	0.20	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18	0.22	-	0.31	1.01	0.23	19:06	22.76	7.20
Nick Schmaltz	UTA	RW	@ NYR	93.8%	0.04	0.30	0.40	0.70	2.00	0.30	0.60	0.20	0.08	0.11	0.18	0.01	0.01	0.02	4.70	5.19	47.5%	0.36	0.97	0.23	19:12	23.47	6.20
Logan Cooley	UTA	C	@ NYR	93.9%	0.04	0.30	0.40	0.70	1.50	1.10	0.50	0.40	0.07	0.10	0.17	0.01	0.00	0.01	5.21	5.94	46.8%	0.32	0.92	0.21	17:42	22.18	5.80
Joel Farabee	CGY	LW	@ SEA	11.5%	0.04	0.20	0.20	0.30	1.60	0.70	0.50	0.60	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.30	0.36	-	0.27	0.77	-0.29	15:54	20.89	3.20
Morgan Frost	CGY	C	@ SEA	22.8%	0.04	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.70	0.80	0.50	0.30	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.05	5.77	55.0%	0.26	0.75	-0.26	15:36	20.44	3.40
Connor Zary	CGY	LW	@ SEA	10.5%	0.04	0.20	0.20	0.30	1.40	0.60	0.30	0.30	0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.28	1.44	-	0.23	0.76	-0.27	15:06	19.17	2.90
Matthew Coronato	CGY	RW	@ SEA	40.0%	0.04	0.20	0.30	0.50	2.20	0.40	0.30	0.40	0.05	0.07	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.08	1.33	-	0.27	0.81	-0.29	17:00	21.12	4.40
Matvei Gridin	CGY	RW	@ SEA	39.6%	0.04	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.90	0.30	0.50	0.20	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.24	-	0.24	0.77	-0.27	15:06	19.34	3.80
Mikael Granlund	ANA	C	vs FLA	52.1%	0.04	0.20	0.40	0.50	1.70	0.70	0.80	0.30	0.05	0.10	0.15	0.01	0.01	0.02	5.91	5.93	49.9%	0.31	0.96	0.05	19:12	22.71	4.90
J.T. Miller	NYR	C	vs UTA	91.8%	0.04	0.20	0.40	0.70	1.70	1.60	0.70	0.60	0.05	0.11	0.16	0.01	0.01	0.01	7.91	5.72	58.0%	0.31	1.01	-0.17	19:12	25.02	5.50
Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	vs UTA	98.3%	0.04	0.20	0.40	0.70	2.10	0.80	0.70	0.20	0.06	0.12	0.18	0.01	0.01	0.02	6.95	6.25	52.7%	0.35	1.07	-0.18	19:54	24.21	5.90
Alex Killorn	ANA	RW	vs FLA	5.1%	0.04	0.20	0.20	0.30	1.60	1.00	0.40	0.60	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.51	0.69	-	0.27	0.82	0.05	17:06	22.46	3.50
Eeli Tolvanen	NYR	LW	vs UTA	35.5%	0.04	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.30	1.90	1.10	0.30	0.04	0.04	0.08	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.05	-	0.23	0.71	-0.14	15:06	20.71	4.20
Alexis Lafreniere	NYR	RW	vs UTA	81.8%	0.04	0.20	0.30	0.60	1.70	0.90	0.50	0.30	0.05	0.08	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.29	-	0.30	0.85	-0.15	17:18	21.18	4.90
Will Cuylle	NYR	LW	vs UTA	63.6%	0.04	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.60	3.00	0.90	0.80	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.46	0.52	-	0.22	0.77	-0.15	15:30	21.24	4.60
Gabriel Perreault	NYR	RW	vs UTA	52.9%	0.04	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.30	0.40	0.60	0.20	0.03	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.10	-	0.24	0.75	-0.15	15:48	20.37	4.30
Sam Colangelo	ANA	RW	vs FLA	6.4%	0.04	0.20	0.20	0.30	1.20	2.40	0.70	0.10	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.18	0.21	-	0.19	0.59	0.03	11:54	16.24	3.20
Beckett Sennecke	ANA	RW	vs FLA	93.7%	0.04	0.20	0.40	0.60	2.30	1.30	0.40	0.80	0.04	0.09	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.04	-	0.30	0.97	0.05	17:24	21.05	5.20
Cole Perfetti	WPG	LW	@ DET	37.3%	0.04	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.70	0.80	0.40	0.30	0.05	0.08	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.23	-	0.25	0.75	-0.06	15:30	18.37	4.90
Isak Rosen	WPG	LW	@ DET	13.6%	0.04	0.20	0.10	0.30	1.10	0.40	0.40	0.10	0.04	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.05	-	0.17	0.54	-0.04	11:06	14.68	2.70
Mark Stone	LV	RW	@ VAN	93.4%	0.04	0.40	0.70	1.10	2.20	0.70	0.80	0.20	0.11	0.23	0.35	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.10	0.12	-	0.33	0.98	0.09	19:24	21.73	9.50
Tomas Hertl	LV	C	@ VAN	83.6%	0.04	0.40	0.40	0.80	2.80	1.60	0.70	0.40	0.14	0.14	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.04	6.29	56.1%	0.26	0.77	0.07	16:48	19.08	7.50
Mitch Marner	LV	RW	@ VAN	98.8%	0.04	0.40	0.90	1.30	2.20	0.40	0.60	0.30	0.10	0.30	0.40	0.02	0.02	0.03	1.49	2.00	42.7%	0.38	1.13	0.09	20:54	22.82	9.70
Sam Bennett	FLA	C	@ ANA	83.8%	0.03	0.20	0.40	0.60	2.60	1.50	0.50	0.90	0.06	0.13	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.01	6.33	6.87	48.0%	0.29	0.90	-0.10	17:48	21.44	5.90
Carter Verhaeghe	FLA	LW	@ ANA	72.1%	0.03	0.20	0.40	0.60	2.40	0.70	0.30	0.30	0.05	0.10	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59	0.70	-	0.30	0.86	-0.10	18:06	21.76	5.60
Eetu Luostarinen	FLA	LW	@ ANA	11.6%	0.03	0.20	0.30	0.40	1.40	1.40	0.70	0.30	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.01	0.01	0.03	1.25	1.39	-	0.25	0.73	-0.10	15:42	21.13	4.50
Anton Lundell	FLA	C	@ ANA	45.5%	0.03	0.20	0.40	0.60	2.20	1.00	0.50	0.40	0.06	0.14	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.03	7.87	7.20	52.2%	0.26	0.87	-0.10	17:30	22.23	5.90
Sandis Vilmanis	FLA	LW	@ ANA	6.4%	0.03	0.20	0.20	0.30	1.10	1.50	0.40	0.10	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.16	-	0.17	0.53	-0.07	10:30	14.23	3.00
Chandler Stephenson	SEA	C	vs CGY	16.9%	0.03	0.20	0.50	0.70	1.30	0.40	0.80	0.30	0.05	0.13	0.18	0.02	0.02	0.03	9.44	8.81	51.7%	0.34	0.90	0.38	19:12	24.17	5.30
Brandon Montour	SEA	D	vs CGY	82.8%	0.03	0.20	0.40	0.50	2.90	1.50	1.50	0.90	0.05	0.10	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.35	1.20	0.47	22:48	23.88	6.40
Vince Dunn	SEA	D	vs CGY	89.4%	0.03	0.20	0.50	0.70	2.30	0.50	1.30	0.90	0.06	0.19	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.32	1.13	0.43	21:48	24.19	6.80
Kaapo Kakko	SEA	RW	vs CGY	18.0%	0.03	0.20	0.40	0.70	1.40	0.60	0.30	0.40	0.04	0.08	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	0.40	-	0.24	0.74	0.30	14:48	19.81	5.10
Shane Wright	SEA	C	vs CGY	26.5%	0.03	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.50	0.80	1.00	0.20	0.04	0.07	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.53	4.48	44.1%	0.24	0.72	0.28	14:00	18.67	5.00
Berkly Catton	SEA	C	vs CGY	29.7%	0.03	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.60	0.20	0.60	0.60	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.31	1.39	-	0.23	0.63	0.27	13:06	17.29	3.90
Andrew Copp	DET	C	vs WPG	9.2%	0.03	0.20	0.40	0.60	1.60	0.50	0.70	0.30	0.03	0.07	0.11	0.02	0.01	0.03	6.39	5.68	53.0%	0.25	0.80	0.03	15:48	20.93	4.90
Elias Pettersson	VAN	C	vs LV	87.4%	0.03	0.20	0.50	0.80	1.70	1.10	1.20	0.20	0.05	0.15	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.02	8.71	9.39	48.1%	0.33	0.94	-0.19	18:54	23.03	6.30
Drew O'Connor	VAN	LW	vs LV	5.9%	0.03	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.40	0.80	0.50	0.30	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.65	0.72	-	0.24	0.71	-0.17	14:42	19.42	3.20
Paul Cotter	VAN	LW	vs LV	19.2%	0.03	0.20	0.10	0.30	0.90	2.30	0.30	0.30	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	1.07	1.13	-	0.19	0.58	-0.14	12:06	16.25	2.40
Liam Ohgren	VAN	LW	vs LV	16.9%	0.03	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.40	0.90	0.60	0.10	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.11	0.13	-	0.20	0.67	-0.15	12:54	16.87	3.40
Jonathan Lekkerimaki	VAN	RW	vs LV	24.9%	0.03	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.30	0.60	0.30	0.10	0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.02	-	0.21	0.60	-0.13	12:18	16.46	3.40
Linus Karlsson	VAN	RW	vs LV	10.6%	0.03	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.50	0.90	0.30	0.40	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.36	0.40	-	0.19	0.60	-0.13	12:18	17.64	3.40
Nate Danielson	DET	C	vs WPG	17.6%	0.03	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.60	0.40	0.40	0.30	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.63	3.00	46.7%	0.18	0.57	0.02	11:06	15.80	4.00
Emmitt Finnie	DET	LW	vs WPG	27.7%	0.03	0.20	0.30	0.50	1.80	1.90	0.50	0.10	0.03	0.05	0.08	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.69	0.74	-	0.25	0.78	0.03	15:30	20.07	4.40
Max Sasson	VAN	C	vs LV	4.9%	0.03	0.20	0.10	0.30	0.90	0.40	0.50	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	2.17	2.58	45.7%	0.19	0.58	-0.13	11:30	16.71	2.40
William Karlsson	LV	C	@ VAN	24.2%	0.03	0.30	0.30	0.60	2.10	0.40	0.80	0.20	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.03	7.62	5.81	56.7%	0.28	0.80	0.09	17:00	21.21	6.40
Ivan Barbashev	LV	LW	@ VAN	67.8%	0.03	0.30	0.50	0.80	1.70	2.00	0.50	0.30	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.34	-	0.26	0.88	0.09	16:30	20.04	6.50
Brett Howden	LV	LW	@ VAN	16.2%	0.03	0.30	0.30	0.50	1.60	1.80	0.50	0.70	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.02	3.85	3.74	50.7%	0.24	0.73	0.08	15:00	20.09	5.00
Victor Olofsson	LV	RW	@ VAN	13.9%	0.03	0.30	0.30	0.60	2.00	0.40	0.30	0.20	0.07	0.07	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.10	-	0.22	0.71	0.07	14:00	18.38	5.80
Vincent Trocheck	UTA	C	@ NYR	88.5%	0.03	0.20	0.30	0.60	1.60	3.10	0.80	0.50	0.04	0.08	0.12	0.01	0.01	0.02	9.76	7.38	56.9%	0.35	1.07	0.26	20:54	24.81	5.10
Anders Lee	UTA	LW	@ NYR	28.5%	0.03	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.90	1.50	0.40	0.40	0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59	0.64	-	0.24	0.78	0.20	16:12	20.29	4.30
Lawson Crouse	UTA	RW	@ NYR	35.8%	0.03	0.20	0.20	0.40	1.40	3.10	0.60	0.40	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.38	0.48	-	0.24	0.71	0.20	15:18	21.61	4.20
Michael Carcone	UTA	RW	@ NYR	5.0%	0.03	0.20	0.20	0.30	1.40	2.10	0.20	0.30	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.17	0.21	-	0.20	0.61	0.16	12:24	17.43	3.30
Mikael Backlund	CGY	C	@ SEA	13.7%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.30	2.00	0.50	0.30	0.30	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.02	9.05	9.11	49.8%	0.31	0.93	-0.35	18:18	24.39	3.70
Ryan Strome	CGY	C	@ SEA	4.0%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.20	0.50	0.30	0.80	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	4.83	5.80	45.5%	0.24	0.77	-0.28	15:18	20.06	2.70
Yegor Sharangovich	CGY	LW	@ SEA	7.8%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.60	0.30	0.30	0.10	0.01	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.95	1.08	-	0.26	0.79	-0.30	16:24	20.88	2.90
Brennan Othmann	CGY	LW	@ SEA	10.4%	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.80	2.00	0.30	0.60	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.10	-	0.16	0.48	-0.19	10:00	14.42	1.70
Simon Nemec	CGY	D	@ SEA	62.0%	0.02	0.10	0.30	0.40	1.50	0.40	1.10	0.50	0.02	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.28	0.99	-0.35	18:36	20.70	3.70
Samuel Honzek	CGY	LW	@ SEA	15.2%	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.20	1.10	1.80	0.30	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.23	0.27	-	0.19	0.61	-0.25	12:30	18.23	2.20
Adam Klapka	CGY	RW	@ SEA	8.9%	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.20	1.00	4.20	0.60	1.30	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.25	-	0.17	0.50	-0.20	10:18	14.43	2.20
Maxim Tsyplakov	CGY	RW	@ SEA	13.7%	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.90	1.80	0.30	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.21	0.26	-	0.21	0.66	-0.25	12:42	16.83	1.60
Zayne Parekh	CGY	D	@ SEA	68.5%	0.02	0.10	0.30	0.40	1.40	0.50	0.70	0.40	0.03	0.09	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.25	0.94	-0.30	17:12	21.47	3.20
Frank Vatrano	ANA	LW	vs FLA	6.4%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.80	2.00	0.70	0.80	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.17	0.20	-	0.24	0.73	0.04	15:24	20.89	3.40
Oliver Bjorkstrand	NYR	RW	vs UTA	19.6%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.40	1.30	0.80	0.50	0.20	0.03	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.11	-	0.23	0.64	-0.13	14:18	17.45	3.50
A.J. Greer	ANA	LW	vs FLA	7.5%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.20	3.10	0.50	1.80	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.17	0.22	-	0.16	0.55	0.03	10:42	14.87	3.10
Ryan Poehling	ANA	C	vs FLA	6.7%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.20	0.70	1.40	0.20	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	6.10	6.48	48.5%	0.23	0.69	0.04	14:24	19.94	4.20
Vladislav Gavrikov	NYR	D	vs UTA	41.0%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.00	0.50	1.70	0.50	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.30	1.21	-0.23	23:06	27.00	4.00
Adam Fox	NYR	D	vs UTA	99.0%	0.02	0.10	0.60	0.70	1.40	0.30	1.60	0.40	0.03	0.23	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.37	1.19	-0.21	23:18	26.99	7.00
Sean Durzi	NYR	D	vs UTA	38.3%	0.02	0.10	0.30	0.40	1.10	0.50	1.80	0.70	0.02	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.27	1.02	-0.19	19:36	25.02	4.30
Joe Veleno	NYR	C	vs UTA	4.1%	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.70	1.90	0.70	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	3.07	2.97	50.8%	0.20	0.56	-0.13	12:06	16.05	1.40
Matthew Rempe	NYR	RW	vs UTA	5.0%	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.60	2.50	0.40	1.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.20	-	0.13	0.39	-0.08	8:12	11.06	1.80
Tristan Luneau	ANA	D	vs FLA	30.8%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.20	1.30	0.90	1.20	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.27	1.01	0.06	19:18	21.35	3.60
Pavel Mintyukov	ANA	D	vs FLA	30.8%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.10	1.00	1.90	0.40	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.26	0.94	0.05	18:12	24.00	4.10
Nikita Nesterenko	ANA	LW	vs FLA	4.8%	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.30	1.00	2.50	0.40	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.43	0.44	-	0.18	0.55	0.03	11:30	16.03	2.40
Jackson LaCombe	ANA	D	vs FLA	97.6%	0.02	0.10	0.50	0.60	1.80	1.10	2.00	0.40	0.03	0.16	0.19	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.43	1.22	0.06	23:36	26.74	6.40
Tye Kartye	NYR	LW	vs UTA	7.2%	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.90	2.40	0.80	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.11	0.13	-	0.18	0.50	-0.11	11:00	15.67	2.30
Judd Caulfield	ANA	C	vs FLA	-	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.20	1.00	0.90	0.40	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	0.41	-	0.16	0.48	0.03	9:54	12.15	2.50
Jaroslav Chmelar	NYR	RW	vs UTA	3.2%	0.02	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.70	1.50	0.70	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.08	-	0.15	0.42	-0.09	9:06	12.78	2.00
Noah Laba	NYR	C	vs UTA	11.2%	0.02	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.90	1.20	0.70	0.50	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.01	4.41	4.46	49.7%	0.20	0.62	-0.14	13:24	19.25	2.90

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

GWG starts with goals

Game-winning goals are a slice of a player's goals. Check the goal projections first.

Goals Projections

Team wins drive the share

Teams projected to win more have more game-winning goals to hand out. Goalie win projections show which teams are favoured.

Goalie Win Projections

Power-play goals

Another goal-based category where the role, not a hot streak, decides who scores.

Power-Play Goals

Related Projections

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Frequently Asked Questions

Each player's projected goals (from LineupExperts) times his team's expected game-winners per goal: the team's projected non-shootout wins divided by its projected goals.

Not measurably. The share of a player's goals that are game-winners correlates at about 0.09 from one season to the next, so we do not reward past GWG totals. Goals and team wins drive the projection.

A team that wins less has fewer game-winning goals to hand out, so each of its goals is less likely to be the winner.

No. The NHL does not credit a game-winning goal for a shootout win, and the projection removes the league's share of shootout-decided wins.