NHL Projected Game-Winning Goals - Rest of Season
Game-winning goals count in some Yahoo and ESPN category leagues. There is no individual game-winning-goal skill: a player's share of his goals that turn out to be winners barely repeats from one season to the next (correlation about 0.09). So this projection is simply projected goals times how many of his team's goals are expected to be game-winners, which comes from the team's projected wins. The best goal scorers on teams projected to win lead the list.
Season Outlook: Oct 4 through Apr 10, 2027
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Updated: 4:35 PM UTC(hourly)
5 games • 791 players
What counts as a GWG
the goal that puts the winning team one ahead of the loser's final total (the loser's final score + 1). Shootout winners are not game-winning goals.
The model
every win outside the shootout has exactly one game-winning goal. For each team we take its goalies' projected wins, remove the league's share of wins decided in a shootout, and divide by the team's projected goals. That gives the share of the team's goals expected to be game-winners. Each player's projected GWG is his projected goals times that share.
Why no player skill
across seasons a player's game-winners per goal correlate at only about 0.09 year to year: it is luck and team context, not a repeatable skill. Projections that rank "clutch" players higher would be chasing noise.
Track record
in our 2025-26 backtest the projection beat a naive current-season rate at every cutoff, and the top three deciles landed within 6% of the actual totals.
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Pro Tip: GWG follows goals and team wins. If you need the category, prioritise top goal scorers on strong teams rather than players with a hot GWG streak.
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Forward-looking projections only
ROS stats represent expected future production—they don't include any stats already accumulated this season.
Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.
Sorted by Projected Game Winning Goals
719 playersShow
Skaters100 of 719
| Player | Team | Pos | Rost% | GWG† ↓ | G | A | PTS | SOG | HIT | BLK | PIM | PPG† | PPA† | PPP† | SHG† | SHA† | SHP† | FOW† | FOL† | FO%† | TK† | GV† | +/-† | TOI | SFT† | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon | COL | C | 100.0% | 9.02 | 44.00 | 82.00 | 126.00 | 367.00 | 57.00 | 43.00 | 35.00 | 12.59 | 25.63 | 38.23 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 712.46 | 698.99 | 50.5% | 28.38 | 109.52 | 25.59 | 1830:00 | 1948.60 | 1088.00 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | MIN | LW | 98.2% | 8.81 | 51.00 | 51.00 | 101.00 | 287.00 | 52.00 | 32.00 | 31.00 | 15.91 | 16.21 | 32.11 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 2.71 | 3.31 | - | 27.84 | 96.83 | -6.30 | 1831:00 | 1736.44 | 915.00 |
| Martin Necas | COL | RW | 100.0% | 7.38 | 36.00 | 62.00 | 98.00 | 229.00 | 80.00 | 26.00 | 25.00 | 10.40 | 19.87 | 30.27 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 24.85 | 26.15 | - | 26.68 | 90.00 | 22.69 | 1647:00 | 1738.00 | 807.00 |
| Dylan Guenther | UTA | RW | 99.2% | 7.07 | 44.00 | 36.00 | 80.00 | 278.00 | 65.00 | 34.00 | 28.00 | 13.42 | 11.33 | 24.75 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.42 | 27.27 | 32.84 | - | 22.71 | 71.21 | 6.08 | 1418:00 | 1766.56 | 773.00 |
| Tage Thompson | BUF | C | 99.9% | 7.02 | 44.00 | 36.00 | 80.00 | 279.00 | 87.00 | 39.00 | 38.00 | 12.67 | 11.94 | 24.61 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.34 | 393.08 | 459.63 | 46.1% | 25.41 | 74.82 | 4.51 | 1568:00 | 1893.98 | 743.00 |
| Kyle Connor | WPG | LW | 99.2% | 6.55 | 36.00 | 49.00 | 85.00 | 259.00 | 24.00 | 26.00 | 16.00 | 8.84 | 13.37 | 22.21 | 1.03 | 0.56 | 1.60 | 1.43 | 1.71 | - | 25.90 | 78.10 | 2.23 | 1705:00 | 1805.05 | 727.00 |
| Auston Matthews | TOR | C | 99.1% | 6.49 | 45.00 | 42.00 | 87.00 | 321.00 | 56.00 | 100.00 | 22.00 | 11.15 | 11.36 | 22.51 | 1.46 | 0.59 | 2.05 | 753.15 | 562.63 | 57.2% | 28.34 | 76.48 | 5.43 | 1678:00 | 1912.66 | 881.00 |
| Matthew Boldy | MIN | RW | 99.5% | 6.39 | 37.00 | 45.00 | 82.00 | 272.00 | 61.00 | 60.00 | 41.00 | 11.80 | 16.56 | 28.36 | 1.44 | 0.78 | 2.22 | 59.35 | 71.88 | - | 29.15 | 85.39 | -5.78 | 1699:00 | 1688.30 | 784.00 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | NYR | RW | 92.5% | 6.16 | 34.00 | 27.00 | 60.00 | 249.00 | 29.00 | 37.00 | 25.00 | 10.60 | 8.66 | 19.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.07 | 2.50 | - | 21.53 | 64.18 | 0.80 | 1374:00 | 1566.77 | 609.00 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | COL | LW | 57.0% | 6.15 | 30.00 | 28.00 | 58.00 | 174.00 | 54.00 | 46.00 | 23.00 | 6.14 | 5.58 | 11.71 | 1.32 | 0.60 | 1.92 | 9.37 | 11.76 | - | 23.65 | 73.76 | 23.99 | 1597:00 | 1943.40 | 583.00 |
| Cole Caufield | MON | LW | 99.9% | 6.07 | 44.00 | 32.00 | 76.00 | 255.00 | 56.00 | 23.00 | 17.00 | 12.01 | 9.73 | 21.75 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 9.22 | 10.96 | - | 23.54 | 68.39 | 3.06 | 1495:00 | 1711.16 | 711.00 |
| Mark Scheifele | WPG | C | 99.4% | 6.00 | 33.00 | 53.00 | 87.00 | 175.00 | 41.00 | 49.00 | 50.00 | 7.98 | 14.52 | 22.49 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.42 | 588.19 | 636.45 | 48.0% | 29.84 | 95.98 | 2.20 | 1695:00 | 1729.31 | 670.00 |
| Brock Nelson | COL | C | 87.7% | 5.74 | 28.00 | 31.00 | 59.00 | 179.00 | 34.00 | 56.00 | 25.00 | 7.77 | 9.87 | 17.64 | 1.66 | 0.91 | 2.57 | 691.04 | 689.25 | 50.1% | 24.46 | 72.17 | 22.27 | 1562:00 | 1912.93 | 558.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl | EDM | C | 99.9% | 5.73 | 46.00 | 64.00 | 110.00 | 243.00 | 41.00 | 24.00 | 37.00 | 14.68 | 23.66 | 38.34 | 0.47 | 0.25 | 0.72 | 759.19 | 629.84 | 54.7% | 28.45 | 98.34 | -3.16 | 1755:00 | 1850.18 | 908.00 |
| Jason Robertson | DAL | LW | 99.6% | 5.57 | 37.00 | 50.00 | 87.00 | 276.00 | 53.00 | 33.00 | 28.00 | 13.16 | 20.10 | 33.26 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 3.15 | 3.75 | - | 24.40 | 82.53 | -1.89 | 1562:00 | 1641.48 | 771.00 |
| Jack Eichel | LV | C | 98.9% | 5.54 | 36.00 | 66.00 | 101.00 | 285.00 | 34.00 | 51.00 | 16.00 | 9.33 | 24.52 | 33.85 | 1.42 | 0.96 | 2.38 | 634.32 | 686.43 | 48.0% | 30.35 | 95.28 | -6.45 | 1734:00 | 1874.15 | 895.00 |
| Cutter Gauthier | ANA | LW | 98.2% | 5.52 | 42.00 | 30.00 | 72.00 | 302.00 | 70.00 | 29.00 | 26.00 | 10.67 | 7.94 | 18.61 | 0.46 | 0.13 | 0.59 | 76.96 | 87.35 | - | 20.82 | 66.60 | -5.16 | 1260:00 | 1529.49 | 708.00 |
| William Nylander | TOR | RW | 99.1% | 5.48 | 38.00 | 48.00 | 86.00 | 246.00 | 18.00 | 30.00 | 21.00 | 9.62 | 13.90 | 23.52 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.47 | 49.19 | 61.17 | - | 26.78 | 78.99 | 5.08 | 1578:00 | 1812.65 | 714.00 |
| Nikita Kucherov | TB | RW | 99.9% | 5.40 | 40.00 | 80.00 | 120.00 | 254.00 | 33.00 | 33.00 | 42.00 | 14.66 | 35.70 | 50.36 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.47 | 1.30 | 1.55 | - | 27.98 | 101.33 | 11.23 | 1724:00 | 1811.77 | 949.00 |
| Gabriel Vilardi | WPG | RW | 80.0% | 5.27 | 29.00 | 35.00 | 64.00 | 159.00 | 24.00 | 46.00 | 24.00 | 7.93 | 10.58 | 18.51 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 62.02 | 62.91 | - | 22.65 | 73.62 | 1.96 | 1539:00 | 1646.28 | 539.00 |
| Wyatt Johnston | DAL | C | 99.9% | 5.27 | 35.00 | 43.00 | 78.00 | 223.00 | 53.00 | 55.00 | 29.00 | 12.10 | 14.88 | 26.97 | 0.63 | 0.31 | 0.94 | 421.24 | 433.18 | 49.3% | 25.36 | 73.65 | -2.05 | 1630:00 | 1784.75 | 677.00 |
| Leo Carlsson | ANA | C | 94.2% | 5.26 | 40.00 | 45.00 | 85.00 | 235.00 | 17.00 | 40.00 | 26.00 | 10.38 | 13.47 | 23.84 | 1.07 | 0.46 | 1.54 | 464.82 | 562.33 | 45.3% | 25.50 | 73.07 | -5.94 | 1470:00 | 1739.36 | 723.00 |
| Sam Reinhart | FLA | RW | 99.5% | 5.21 | 41.00 | 34.00 | 75.00 | 208.00 | 90.00 | 53.00 | 22.00 | 14.88 | 13.48 | 28.36 | 1.66 | 0.56 | 2.22 | 129.34 | 164.75 | 44.0% | 25.60 | 79.37 | 4.21 | 1731:00 | 1983.11 | 669.00 |
| Nick Schmaltz | UTA | RW | 93.8% | 5.14 | 32.00 | 38.00 | 70.00 | 198.00 | 21.00 | 48.00 | 18.00 | 8.08 | 10.29 | 18.36 | 1.48 | 0.69 | 2.17 | 386.19 | 426.20 | 47.5% | 29.82 | 79.65 | 6.97 | 1576:00 | 1926.15 | 617.00 |
| Brandon Hagel | TB | LW | 99.1% | 5.13 | 38.00 | 50.00 | 88.00 | 238.00 | 53.00 | 47.00 | 57.00 | 10.13 | 14.83 | 24.96 | 1.85 | 1.09 | 2.94 | 28.86 | 36.44 | - | 30.55 | 84.39 | 12.23 | 1689:00 | 1955.74 | 772.00 |
| Connor McDavid | EDM | C | 99.9% | 5.11 | 41.00 | 96.00 | 137.00 | 273.00 | 50.00 | 31.00 | 38.00 | 11.68 | 38.52 | 50.20 | 1.34 | 0.92 | 2.26 | 467.70 | 471.64 | 49.8% | 29.61 | 102.04 | -3.39 | 1857:00 | 1884.99 | 1050.00 |
| David Pastrnak | BOS | RW | 99.8% | 4.99 | 35.00 | 64.00 | 100.00 | 297.00 | 76.00 | 28.00 | 52.00 | 8.35 | 17.99 | 26.34 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 6.50 | 7.54 | - | 28.62 | 100.01 | 2.90 | 1650:00 | 1733.00 | 823.00 |
| Filip Forsberg | NSH | LW | 99.1% | 4.93 | 33.00 | 37.00 | 70.00 | 240.00 | 124.00 | 37.00 | 35.00 | 9.53 | 11.73 | 21.25 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 12.52 | 15.76 | - | 29.07 | 83.26 | -16.17 | 1550:00 | 1795.17 | 615.00 |
| Cale Makar | COL | D | 99.8% | 4.92 | 24.00 | 67.00 | 91.00 | 227.00 | 40.00 | 129.00 | 19.00 | 8.82 | 28.76 | 37.58 | 0.30 | 0.92 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | 33.45 | 105.00 | 29.70 | 2064:00 | 2163.45 | 869.00 |
| Jack Hughes | NJ | C | 99.8% | 4.82 | 38.00 | 57.00 | 95.00 | 315.00 | 9.00 | 39.00 | 16.00 | 9.44 | 17.36 | 26.81 | 0.51 | 0.32 | 0.82 | 260.22 | 393.00 | 39.8% | 30.85 | 102.41 | -5.80 | 1741:00 | 1801.20 | 857.00 |
| Sebastian Aho | CAR | C | 98.8% | 4.73 | 33.00 | 48.00 | 81.00 | 216.00 | 56.00 | 24.00 | 51.00 | 11.18 | 18.47 | 29.65 | 1.37 | 1.03 | 2.40 | 640.46 | 592.46 | 51.9% | 26.65 | 86.33 | 0.50 | 1634:00 | 1873.63 | 681.00 |
| Alex DeBrincat | DET | LW | 99.7% | 4.73 | 36.00 | 36.00 | 72.00 | 261.00 | 36.00 | 40.00 | 23.00 | 9.90 | 9.95 | 19.85 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 24.41 | 29.93 | - | 27.82 | 73.44 | -9.37 | 1474:00 | 1710.32 | 675.00 |
| Nazem Kadri | COL | C | 70.5% | 4.72 | 23.00 | 39.00 | 62.00 | 224.00 | 51.00 | 35.00 | 37.00 | 5.61 | 12.04 | 17.64 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 530.18 | 585.69 | 47.5% | 24.26 | 76.48 | 22.22 | 1555:00 | 1842.47 | 542.00 |
| Morgan Geekie | BOS | LW | 95.9% | 4.71 | 33.00 | 28.00 | 61.00 | 170.00 | 120.00 | 32.00 | 31.00 | 7.99 | 7.20 | 15.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 102.39 | 113.66 | - | 22.80 | 68.77 | 2.45 | 1395:00 | 1537.22 | 536.00 |
| Macklin Celebrini | SJ | C | 99.8% | 4.67 | 40.00 | 69.00 | 108.00 | 292.00 | 48.00 | 61.00 | 41.00 | 10.57 | 23.09 | 33.66 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 1.09 | 608.06 | 635.27 | 48.9% | 30.85 | 98.95 | -6.05 | 1700:00 | 1722.86 | 884.00 |
| Steven Stamkos | NSH | C | 93.6% | 4.63 | 31.00 | 29.00 | 59.00 | 204.00 | 85.00 | 33.00 | 45.00 | 9.64 | 9.31 | 18.95 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 336.65 | 283.12 | 54.3% | 23.51 | 70.87 | -15.22 | 1481:00 | 1721.50 | 503.00 |
| Bo Horvat | NYI | C | 90.2% | 4.61 | 36.00 | 33.00 | 70.00 | 262.00 | 71.00 | 45.00 | 36.00 | 11.05 | 10.96 | 22.01 | 1.80 | 1.05 | 2.85 | 785.98 | 634.95 | 55.3% | 25.89 | 85.76 | -1.35 | 1684:00 | 1893.10 | 672.00 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | COL | LW | 50.2% | 4.51 | 22.00 | 31.00 | 53.00 | 177.00 | 114.00 | 46.00 | 59.00 | 5.27 | 7.83 | 13.10 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 197.65 | 170.40 | 53.7% | 21.88 | 65.09 | 19.79 | 1384:00 | 1681.06 | 530.00 |
| Artemi Panarin | LA | LW | 97.0% | 4.51 | 35.00 | 54.00 | 90.00 | 240.00 | 12.00 | 14.00 | 17.00 | 9.93 | 18.19 | 28.12 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.78 | 0.92 | - | 26.34 | 88.12 | 11.88 | 1670:00 | 1826.99 | 682.00 |
| Alex Tuch | WAS | RW | 93.9% | 4.48 | 31.00 | 30.00 | 62.00 | 193.00 | 78.00 | 90.00 | 48.00 | 4.16 | 4.36 | 8.51 | 2.60 | 1.25 | 3.85 | 62.22 | 77.81 | - | 29.54 | 74.32 | 17.97 | 1571:00 | 2067.86 | 631.00 |
| Kirill Marchenko | TOR | RW | 98.4% | 4.47 | 31.00 | 37.00 | 68.00 | 226.00 | 65.00 | 41.00 | 32.00 | 8.29 | 11.54 | 19.83 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 7.27 | 8.72 | - | 27.95 | 80.10 | 4.81 | 1522:00 | 1669.29 | 653.00 |
| Jake Guentzel | TB | LW | 100.0% | 4.46 | 33.00 | 49.00 | 82.00 | 215.00 | 36.00 | 43.00 | 37.00 | 12.43 | 21.21 | 33.64 | 1.10 | 0.64 | 1.74 | 220.38 | 227.68 | 49.2% | 26.98 | 79.68 | 10.83 | 1664:00 | 1789.97 | 714.00 |
| Brayden Point | TB | C | 95.2% | 4.46 | 33.00 | 41.00 | 74.00 | 194.00 | 16.00 | 40.00 | 17.00 | 12.32 | 15.72 | 28.04 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.39 | 422.04 | 473.37 | 47.1% | 23.78 | 72.68 | 10.22 | 1576:00 | 1755.84 | 656.00 |
| Adrian Kempe | LA | RW | 96.7% | 4.38 | 34.00 | 39.00 | 73.00 | 248.00 | 115.00 | 34.00 | 52.00 | 9.13 | 11.39 | 20.52 | 0.48 | 0.32 | 0.80 | 50.93 | 67.85 | - | 24.81 | 76.08 | 11.51 | 1592:00 | 1825.72 | 669.00 |
| Zach Hyman | EDM | RW | 97.8% | 4.36 | 35.00 | 24.00 | 59.00 | 199.00 | 68.00 | 25.00 | 33.00 | 10.56 | 7.29 | 17.85 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 1.33 | 1.58 | - | 20.35 | 60.82 | -2.51 | 1405:00 | 1491.13 | 573.00 |
| Mika Zibanejad | NYR | C | 98.3% | 4.35 | 24.00 | 43.00 | 67.00 | 214.00 | 81.00 | 49.00 | 17.00 | 6.75 | 13.06 | 19.81 | 1.09 | 0.89 | 1.99 | 564.31 | 507.44 | 52.7% | 28.60 | 86.89 | 0.98 | 1615:00 | 1965.08 | 575.00 |
| Tim Stutzle | OTT | C | 99.5% | 4.28 | 30.00 | 51.00 | 81.00 | 204.00 | 126.00 | 45.00 | 37.00 | 8.20 | 16.93 | 25.13 | 1.68 | 1.10 | 2.78 | 312.97 | 292.90 | 51.7% | 28.47 | 84.56 | -0.84 | 1675:00 | 2108.78 | 678.00 |
| Nick Suzuki | MON | C | 100.0% | 4.28 | 31.00 | 61.00 | 92.00 | 183.00 | 72.00 | 60.00 | 23.00 | 7.87 | 19.77 | 27.64 | 0.62 | 0.46 | 1.08 | 715.36 | 692.70 | 50.8% | 28.65 | 83.68 | 3.53 | 1694:00 | 1822.15 | 767.00 |
| Adam Fantilli | CLB | C | 92.0% | 4.21 | 32.00 | 37.00 | 69.00 | 227.00 | 143.00 | 57.00 | 31.00 | 6.94 | 8.85 | 15.79 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 538.55 | 547.29 | 49.6% | 25.00 | 76.41 | 1.68 | 1497:00 | 1659.33 | 624.00 |
| Dylan Larkin | DET | C | 96.3% | 4.21 | 32.00 | 36.00 | 68.00 | 245.00 | 49.00 | 34.00 | 46.00 | 8.68 | 10.33 | 19.01 | 1.40 | 0.63 | 2.03 | 854.42 | 761.29 | 52.9% | 25.59 | 79.08 | -10.47 | 1633:00 | 1937.73 | 624.00 |
| Clayton Keller | UTA | LW | 99.9% | 4.18 | 26.00 | 63.00 | 88.00 | 216.00 | 9.00 | 34.00 | 37.00 | 6.35 | 21.29 | 27.64 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 14.70 | 18.06 | - | 25.17 | 83.02 | 6.86 | 1567:00 | 1867.50 | 711.00 |
| Logan Cooley | UTA | C | 93.9% | 4.18 | 26.00 | 45.00 | 71.00 | 155.00 | 78.00 | 39.00 | 37.00 | 5.94 | 11.71 | 17.65 | 0.61 | 0.40 | 1.02 | 428.66 | 487.96 | 46.8% | 26.04 | 75.93 | 6.53 | 1455:00 | 1822.95 | 569.00 |
| J.T. Miller | NYR | C | 91.8% | 4.17 | 23.00 | 45.00 | 68.00 | 169.00 | 162.00 | 47.00 | 50.00 | 5.56 | 12.54 | 18.10 | 0.74 | 0.72 | 1.46 | 640.84 | 463.95 | 58.0% | 25.49 | 82.21 | 0.95 | 1556:00 | 2028.05 | 536.00 |
| Tomas Hertl | LV | C | 83.6% | 4.16 | 27.00 | 26.00 | 53.00 | 209.00 | 111.00 | 52.00 | 27.00 | 9.22 | 8.86 | 18.08 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 657.68 | 514.44 | 56.1% | 20.98 | 63.01 | -4.88 | 1374:00 | 1560.73 | 532.00 |
| Bobby McMann | SEA | LW | 43.8% | 4.15 | 28.00 | 20.00 | 48.00 | 210.00 | 160.00 | 32.00 | 36.00 | 3.87 | 2.91 | 6.79 | 0.25 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 10.63 | 10.74 | - | 19.50 | 58.83 | -4.89 | 1243:00 | 1583.79 | 494.00 |
| Mikko Rantanen | DAL | RW | 98.7% | 4.07 | 27.00 | 60.00 | 87.00 | 187.00 | 55.00 | 39.00 | 74.00 | 8.88 | 24.06 | 32.94 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 70.85 | 79.69 | - | 29.91 | 89.22 | -2.13 | 1736:00 | 1802.64 | 668.00 |
| Alex Ovechkin | WAS | LW | 96.2% | 4.05 | 28.00 | 30.00 | 58.00 | 220.00 | 126.00 | 17.00 | 19.00 | 9.22 | 10.80 | 20.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 1.97 | 2.33 | - | 20.32 | 68.49 | 13.64 | 1426:00 | 1648.91 | 547.00 |
| John Tavares | TOR | C | 96.1% | 4.04 | 28.00 | 38.00 | 66.00 | 199.00 | 75.00 | 34.00 | 33.00 | 7.64 | 10.63 | 18.28 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 768.89 | 595.28 | 56.4% | 24.74 | 74.56 | 4.70 | 1476:00 | 1723.33 | 542.00 |
| Mark Stone | LV | RW | 93.4% | 4.00 | 26.00 | 50.00 | 76.00 | 166.00 | 50.00 | 57.00 | 14.00 | 7.41 | 16.66 | 24.07 | 0.89 | 0.66 | 1.54 | 8.30 | 10.13 | - | 27.13 | 79.86 | -5.85 | 1587:00 | 1777.67 | 665.00 |
| John-Jason Peterka | BOS | RW | 75.5% | 3.99 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 56.00 | 182.00 | 18.00 | 17.00 | 24.00 | 4.98 | 5.21 | 10.20 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 9.48 | 11.71 | - | 21.42 | 74.30 | 2.54 | 1387:00 | 1719.30 | 484.00 |
| Alexis Lafreniere | NYR | RW | 81.8% | 3.99 | 22.00 | 35.00 | 57.00 | 177.00 | 91.00 | 35.00 | 27.00 | 5.47 | 8.90 | 14.38 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 18.11 | 23.21 | - | 24.14 | 68.50 | 0.85 | 1402:00 | 1716.83 | 476.00 |
| Roope Hintz | DAL | C | 84.1% | 3.92 | 26.00 | 38.00 | 65.00 | 180.00 | 85.00 | 34.00 | 26.00 | 8.02 | 12.96 | 20.98 | 0.46 | 0.25 | 0.71 | 578.59 | 474.72 | 54.9% | 20.55 | 68.27 | -1.77 | 1401:00 | 1742.47 | 579.00 |
| Jared McCann | SEA | LW | 71.6% | 3.86 | 26.00 | 40.00 | 67.00 | 198.00 | 53.00 | 35.00 | 18.00 | 7.45 | 12.50 | 19.95 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 0.33 | 48.03 | 57.11 | - | 22.25 | 70.09 | -4.83 | 1385:00 | 1784.84 | 569.00 |
| Drake Batherson | OTT | RW | 97.1% | 3.85 | 27.00 | 41.00 | 67.00 | 187.00 | 121.00 | 27.00 | 33.00 | 7.75 | 13.01 | 20.76 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 12.16 | 13.80 | - | 23.84 | 70.91 | -0.73 | 1478:00 | 1944.90 | 547.00 |
| Mitch Marner | LV | RW | 98.8% | 3.85 | 25.00 | 61.00 | 86.00 | 169.00 | 31.00 | 46.00 | 19.00 | 6.52 | 20.21 | 26.73 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 2.25 | 122.41 | 164.23 | 42.7% | 31.50 | 93.03 | -6.42 | 1715:00 | 1872.34 | 680.00 |
| Jack Quinn | BUF | RW | 44.9% | 3.83 | 24.00 | 29.00 | 52.00 | 196.00 | 53.00 | 25.00 | 16.00 | 6.39 | 8.44 | 14.83 | 0.37 | 0.16 | 0.54 | 5.09 | 6.23 | - | 19.18 | 64.18 | 3.76 | 1278:00 | 1627.81 | 468.00 |
| Josh Doan | BUF | RW | 61.4% | 3.83 | 24.00 | 30.00 | 55.00 | 177.00 | 87.00 | 34.00 | 25.00 | 7.46 | 9.71 | 17.17 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 17.96 | 22.40 | - | 24.57 | 61.19 | 3.55 | 1251:00 | 1638.03 | 500.00 |
| Cole Perfetti | WPG | LW | 37.3% | 3.82 | 21.00 | 33.00 | 54.00 | 180.00 | 67.00 | 43.00 | 22.00 | 5.16 | 9.15 | 14.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 17.85 | 19.19 | - | 21.03 | 62.16 | 1.65 | 1282:00 | 1519.10 | 491.00 |
| Will Cuylle | NYR | LW | 63.6% | 3.80 | 21.00 | 21.00 | 41.00 | 161.00 | 300.00 | 58.00 | 59.00 | 3.30 | 3.90 | 7.21 | 1.09 | 0.51 | 1.59 | 37.13 | 42.40 | - | 17.47 | 62.40 | 0.82 | 1255:00 | 1719.95 | 430.00 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | MIN | C | 81.6% | 3.80 | 22.00 | 31.00 | 53.00 | 231.00 | 128.00 | 46.00 | 38.00 | 6.90 | 10.53 | 17.43 | 0.73 | 0.54 | 1.27 | 805.68 | 843.42 | 48.9% | 25.09 | 72.98 | -5.48 | 1609:00 | 1704.14 | 591.00 |
| Brock Boeser | VAN | RW | 63.9% | 3.80 | 27.00 | 29.00 | 56.00 | 176.00 | 62.00 | 30.00 | 11.00 | 6.69 | 9.02 | 15.71 | 0.54 | 0.21 | 0.75 | 52.96 | 67.97 | - | 22.51 | 79.24 | -14.10 | 1513:00 | 1758.22 | 456.00 |
| Tom Wilson | WAS | RW | 94.3% | 3.76 | 26.00 | 32.00 | 57.00 | 163.00 | 212.00 | 72.00 | 109.00 | 6.05 | 8.00 | 14.05 | 1.77 | 1.05 | 2.81 | 17.52 | 21.36 | - | 23.94 | 80.53 | 16.63 | 1560:00 | 1883.71 | 562.00 |
| Aliaksei Protas | WAS | LW | 59.3% | 3.76 | 26.00 | 29.00 | 55.00 | 164.00 | 31.00 | 43.00 | 22.00 | 1.49 | 1.93 | 3.41 | 2.19 | 1.19 | 3.38 | 30.28 | 35.80 | - | 23.16 | 71.70 | 16.97 | 1417:00 | 1789.71 | 510.00 |
| Quinton Byfield | LA | C | 86.1% | 3.74 | 29.00 | 37.00 | 66.00 | 197.00 | 68.00 | 42.00 | 44.00 | 6.48 | 9.17 | 15.65 | 1.15 | 0.84 | 1.99 | 512.75 | 587.76 | 46.6% | 32.30 | 77.41 | 12.08 | 1597:00 | 1903.82 | 565.00 |
| Jordan Eberle | SEA | RW | 30.3% | 3.71 | 25.00 | 29.00 | 55.00 | 164.00 | 44.00 | 38.00 | 26.00 | 6.41 | 8.03 | 14.44 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 14.30 | 17.45 | - | 23.45 | 67.95 | -5.24 | 1454:00 | 1756.35 | 492.00 |
| Anders Lee | UTA | LW | 28.5% | 3.70 | 23.00 | 16.00 | 39.00 | 190.00 | 104.00 | 37.00 | 41.00 | 4.07 | 2.94 | 7.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 48.15 | 52.95 | - | 19.37 | 63.86 | 6.19 | 1330:00 | 1665.55 | 423.00 |
| Dylan Holloway | STL | LW | 95.1% | 3.69 | 30.00 | 41.00 | 72.00 | 223.00 | 183.00 | 57.00 | 26.00 | 7.34 | 10.66 | 18.01 | 0.33 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 43.60 | 51.28 | - | 21.20 | 64.61 | 1.46 | 1357:00 | 1633.28 | 658.00 |
| Matthew Tkachuk | FLA | RW | 99.7% | 3.69 | 29.00 | 51.00 | 81.00 | 231.00 | 98.00 | 21.00 | 86.00 | 11.59 | 21.45 | 33.04 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 9.78 | 11.80 | - | 23.04 | 78.91 | 3.43 | 1501:00 | 1676.14 | 665.00 |
| Brady Tkachuk | FLA | LW | 99.6% | 3.69 | 29.00 | 32.00 | 61.00 | 301.00 | 236.00 | 29.00 | 113.00 | 9.92 | 12.24 | 22.17 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.22 | 209.31 | 190.03 | 52.4% | 22.44 | 67.89 | 3.57 | 1460:00 | 1986.60 | 640.00 |
| Matthew Knies | CLB | LW | 94.6% | 3.68 | 28.00 | 41.00 | 69.00 | 164.00 | 162.00 | 38.00 | 38.00 | 6.62 | 10.34 | 16.96 | 0.77 | 0.43 | 1.20 | 2.51 | 3.02 | - | 25.52 | 73.13 | 1.70 | 1519:00 | 1806.66 | 533.00 |
| Jiri Kulich | BUF | C | 25.7% | 3.67 | 23.00 | 20.00 | 43.00 | 160.00 | 58.00 | 51.00 | 23.00 | 3.23 | 3.02 | 6.25 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 390.15 | 451.74 | 46.3% | 19.21 | 58.90 | 3.96 | 1220:00 | 1764.06 | 405.00 |
| Bryan Rust | PIT | RW | 85.3% | 3.63 | 30.00 | 34.00 | 64.00 | 203.00 | 45.00 | 68.00 | 24.00 | 8.06 | 10.65 | 18.72 | 1.57 | 0.81 | 2.37 | 7.99 | 9.93 | - | 23.70 | 79.59 | 7.77 | 1593:00 | 1888.10 | 579.00 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | NYR | LW | 35.5% | 3.62 | 20.00 | 17.00 | 37.00 | 136.00 | 190.00 | 76.00 | 25.00 | 3.79 | 3.66 | 7.46 | 0.75 | 0.29 | 1.04 | 3.33 | 4.07 | - | 18.71 | 57.56 | 0.78 | 1222:00 | 1676.06 | 391.00 |
| Gabriel Perreault | NYR | RW | 52.9% | 3.62 | 20.00 | 29.00 | 49.00 | 129.00 | 42.00 | 37.00 | 16.00 | 2.77 | 4.61 | 7.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.88 | 8.08 | - | 19.50 | 60.84 | 0.84 | 1278:00 | 1647.72 | 409.00 |
| Will Smith | SJ | RW | 94.9% | 3.62 | 31.00 | 46.00 | 76.00 | 198.00 | 21.00 | 17.00 | 16.00 | 9.39 | 14.24 | 23.63 | 0.27 | 0.11 | 0.38 | 41.91 | 48.15 | - | 21.15 | 74.86 | -4.88 | 1404:00 | 1544.53 | 593.00 |
| Jordan Kyrou | WAS | RW | 79.9% | 3.61 | 25.00 | 32.00 | 57.00 | 212.00 | 23.00 | 31.00 | 15.00 | 4.82 | 7.01 | 11.83 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 8.01 | 10.01 | - | 22.30 | 66.88 | 14.77 | 1359:00 | 1740.37 | 530.00 |
| Ryan Leonard | WAS | RW | 65.8% | 3.61 | 25.00 | 27.00 | 53.00 | 174.00 | 145.00 | 29.00 | 49.00 | 5.53 | 6.70 | 12.24 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 5.52 | 6.42 | - | 17.88 | 58.67 | 12.15 | 1145:00 | 1437.65 | 483.00 |
| Porter Martone | PHI | RW | 90.2% | 3.61 | 28.00 | 32.00 | 61.00 | 212.00 | 120.00 | 23.00 | 43.00 | 5.43 | 6.69 | 12.12 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 9.57 | 11.34 | - | 22.14 | 72.77 | 4.65 | 1354:00 | 1684.98 | 606.00 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | CAR | LW | 97.0% | 3.58 | 25.00 | 42.00 | 67.00 | 220.00 | 168.00 | 23.00 | 67.00 | 9.06 | 17.26 | 26.32 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 9.47 | 11.41 | - | 23.27 | 72.63 | 0.42 | 1403:00 | 1662.83 | 583.00 |
| Dylan Cozens | OTT | C | 90.3% | 3.57 | 25.00 | 37.00 | 61.00 | 214.00 | 212.00 | 29.00 | 50.00 | 7.35 | 11.87 | 19.22 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 473.12 | 436.75 | 52.0% | 22.15 | 66.44 | -0.70 | 1419:00 | 1909.12 | 537.00 |
| Timo Meier | NJ | LW | 81.8% | 3.55 | 28.00 | 24.00 | 52.00 | 272.00 | 142.00 | 57.00 | 37.00 | 5.27 | 4.70 | 9.97 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 50.80 | 61.36 | - | 25.75 | 76.14 | -5.27 | 1500:00 | 1743.26 | 574.00 |
| Nico Hischier | NJ | C | 97.3% | 3.55 | 28.00 | 36.00 | 64.00 | 210.00 | 51.00 | 62.00 | 21.00 | 7.79 | 10.90 | 18.69 | 1.48 | 0.90 | 2.38 | 1005.11 | 815.36 | 55.2% | 26.80 | 78.10 | -5.58 | 1688:00 | 1962.20 | 612.00 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | CLB | RW | 60.0% | 3.55 | 27.00 | 31.00 | 58.00 | 191.00 | 74.00 | 35.00 | 21.00 | 4.26 | 5.82 | 10.08 | 1.38 | 0.61 | 1.99 | 2.92 | 3.44 | - | 24.35 | 72.14 | 1.78 | 1510:00 | 1946.86 | 535.00 |
| Viktor Arvidsson | DET | RW | 32.5% | 3.55 | 27.00 | 35.00 | 61.00 | 228.00 | 32.00 | 40.00 | 32.00 | 5.79 | 8.04 | 13.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.68 | 16.06 | - | 19.05 | 60.25 | -7.97 | 1208:00 | 1488.28 | 584.00 |
| Rickard Rakell | PIT | LW | 82.7% | 3.51 | 29.00 | 31.00 | 60.00 | 208.00 | 105.00 | 54.00 | 17.00 | 7.95 | 9.77 | 17.72 | 0.81 | 0.39 | 1.20 | 96.55 | 133.77 | - | 25.94 | 74.18 | 7.61 | 1572:00 | 1817.47 | 561.00 |
| Matthew Coronato | CGY | RW | 40.0% | 3.49 | 25.00 | 26.00 | 50.00 | 207.00 | 29.00 | 28.00 | 29.00 | 5.64 | 6.31 | 11.94 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 88.91 | 109.35 | - | 21.98 | 66.59 | -15.61 | 1398:00 | 1736.48 | 452.00 |
| Owen Tippett | PHI | RW | 78.0% | 3.48 | 27.00 | 21.00 | 48.00 | 221.00 | 163.00 | 54.00 | 23.00 | 5.45 | 4.56 | 10.02 | 0.43 | 0.12 | 0.55 | 11.66 | 14.57 | - | 22.26 | 67.55 | 4.55 | 1334:00 | 1743.61 | 497.00 |
| Blake Coleman | MIN | RW | 38.2% | 3.46 | 20.00 | 21.00 | 41.00 | 193.00 | 161.00 | 53.00 | 52.00 | 2.60 | 2.89 | 5.49 | 1.24 | 0.63 | 1.88 | 22.71 | 27.50 | - | 25.35 | 72.37 | -5.63 | 1422:00 | 1917.12 | 448.00 |
| Chris Kreider | MON | LW | 62.4% | 3.45 | 25.00 | 25.00 | 50.00 | 148.00 | 88.00 | 23.00 | 28.00 | 6.74 | 7.16 | 13.90 | 0.51 | 0.21 | 0.72 | 24.32 | 30.86 | - | 22.49 | 67.79 | 2.85 | 1391:00 | 1760.53 | 427.00 |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | STL | RW | 79.6% | 3.45 | 28.00 | 37.00 | 65.00 | 216.00 | 83.00 | 48.00 | 23.00 | 6.71 | 9.24 | 15.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.87 | 9.62 | - | 22.76 | 69.51 | 1.48 | 1373:00 | 1698.63 | 613.00 |
† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works
GWG starts with goals
Game-winning goals are a slice of a player's goals. Check the goal projections first.
Goals ProjectionsTeam wins drive the share
Teams projected to win more have more game-winning goals to hand out. Goalie win projections show which teams are favoured.
Goalie Win ProjectionsPower-play goals
Another goal-based category where the role, not a hot streak, decides who scores.
Power-Play GoalsRelated Projections
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Frequently Asked Questions
Each player's projected goals (from LineupExperts) times his team's expected game-winners per goal: the team's projected non-shootout wins divided by its projected goals.
Not measurably. The share of a player's goals that are game-winners correlates at about 0.09 from one season to the next, so we do not reward past GWG totals. Goals and team wins drive the projection.
A team that wins less has fewer game-winning goals to hand out, so each of its goals is less likely to be the winner.
No. The NHL does not credit a game-winning goal for a shootout win, and the projection removes the league's share of shootout-decided wins.
Projections by Category
Find projected leaders for specific stats
By Position
All players at each positionScoring Projections
Goals, assists, and points leaders
Peripheral Stats
SOG, hits, blocks, ice time, giveaways and shifts
Special Teams
Power-play and shorthanded goals, assists and points
Faceoff & Physical
Faceoffs won, lost and FO%, PIM, takeaways and +/-
Goalie Projections
Starts, wins, losses, saves, SV% and GAA
Fantasy Points
Standard, DraftKings, and FanDuel
NHL Team Projections
Click a team to see rest of season player projections
