Edgehalla

NHL Projected Power Play Assists - Rest of Season

Power-play assists pile up for the players who run the man advantage, often a top defenseman or a playmaking forward. These projections estimate how many of each player's projected assists come on the power play, from his recent power-play minutes and his shrunk assist rate there.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Updated (hourly)
2 games • 798 players
💡

Forward-looking projections only

ROS stats represent expected future production—they don't include any stats already accumulated this season.

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

How the model works

Sorted by Projected Power Play Assists

726 players
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Skaters100 of 726

PlayerTeamPosRost%PPA† ↓GAPTSSOGHITBLKPIMPPG†PPP†SHG†SHA†SHP†GWG†FOW†FOL†FO%†TK†GV†+/-†TOISFT†FPTS
Connor McDavidEDMC99.7%40.2141.0098.00139.00256.0054.0030.0037.0011.2251.441.731.303.035.42451.92462.3649.4%29.1596.766.481794:001863.551068.00
Nikita KucherovTBLRW99.7%35.1335.0080.00115.00229.0029.0030.0037.0011.9047.030.140.130.274.602.082.43-25.77101.308.121639:001677.93891.00
Quinn HughesMIND99.9%32.1616.0077.0093.00198.0011.0069.0024.005.3537.510.010.080.093.040.000.00-31.28108.59-5.742076:001817.46744.00
Evan BouchardEDMD99.9%29.4025.0064.0089.00216.0034.0094.0026.009.5138.900.260.781.053.310.000.00-30.19104.817.011913:002066.32835.00
Matthew TkachukFLARW98.5%29.2429.0059.0087.00202.00106.0016.0074.0011.1440.380.320.260.573.887.058.50-23.7273.981.841438:001612.74675.00
Clayton KellerUTALW99.9%28.5021.0063.0084.00197.0016.0032.0036.006.8835.380.120.140.262.8111.6014.25-22.5180.574.721446:001715.76658.00
Jack EichelVGKC99.9%28.5034.0064.0098.00259.0028.0048.0017.0010.0438.541.481.482.965.27573.45637.8847.3%27.8689.53-2.151606:001684.17865.00
Cale MakarCOLD100.0%26.8524.0061.0085.00209.0033.00115.0020.009.2636.110.270.841.123.580.000.00-29.7794.7816.601872:001938.89798.00
Nathan MacKinnonCOLC99.9%25.0143.0079.00121.00340.0049.0037.0042.0012.6837.690.340.310.656.42693.11687.2350.2%26.19104.9615.001732:001849.601029.00
Adam FoxNYRD99.0%24.997.0063.0071.00114.0036.00117.0037.002.4627.450.050.710.760.770.000.00-29.3890.9018.701743:001981.58599.00
Mikhail SergachevUTAD98.3%24.6713.0055.0068.00157.0053.00120.0046.005.0629.740.261.211.471.740.000.00-29.8699.316.561850:002254.64631.00
Leon DraisaitlEDMC99.7%23.3544.0066.00110.00235.0042.0024.0033.0013.5636.910.520.320.845.82706.75567.5955.5%25.6398.806.001683:001818.12908.00
Erik KarlssonPITD95.0%23.288.0055.0063.00158.0020.0063.0016.002.8826.170.100.700.800.810.000.00-25.9099.587.091808:001863.90508.00
Seth JonesFLAD75.6%21.539.0043.0052.00169.0081.0084.0026.003.9125.440.140.740.891.200.000.00-28.7198.582.721914:002105.05495.00
Lane HutsonMTLD99.0%21.469.0057.0065.00128.0028.00119.0033.003.2124.680.030.200.231.510.000.00-31.4196.956.251870:001903.52568.00
Jack HughesNJDC99.4%20.9434.0060.0094.00302.007.0041.0014.008.1929.120.660.551.214.38254.36389.4339.5%29.48102.66-7.101652:001682.77848.00
Mark StoneVGKRW94.7%20.9125.0049.0074.00158.0057.0057.0020.007.9228.821.200.731.933.877.259.02-24.1171.75-1.961470:001622.74660.00
Mitch MarnerVGKRW98.9%20.9023.0055.0078.00168.0031.0047.0019.007.1428.050.820.851.673.5695.74128.45-31.9093.46-2.121575:001699.42623.00
Roman JosiNSHD98.3%20.7815.0047.0062.00192.0036.00125.0033.005.2826.060.220.520.742.400.000.00-26.56103.01-11.801954:002083.09602.00
Tim StutzleOTTC99.7%20.2335.0053.0088.00176.00131.0048.0031.0011.0331.272.371.273.655.66340.83306.9152.6%26.4083.214.961591:002010.03713.00
Leo CarlssonANAC94.9%20.2336.0049.0084.00204.0016.0041.0024.0010.7330.960.710.331.034.29427.51516.7545.3%22.5768.51-5.251405:001635.32705.00
Sebastian AhoCARC99.7%20.0036.0053.0089.00213.0051.0030.0055.0012.5032.501.651.583.224.83610.19559.2952.2%22.8582.646.991523:001746.82752.00
Logan CooleyUTAC94.1%19.2018.0046.0064.00124.0080.0042.0033.005.7224.920.590.551.142.41405.34460.5546.8%23.7972.584.591389:001707.76514.00
Nick SuzukiMTLC99.9%19.1930.0057.0087.00177.0069.0059.0023.008.0927.280.640.511.155.02692.93673.8850.7%26.5084.755.311629:001737.69723.00
John CarlsonTBLD97.9%19.0114.0046.0060.00176.0040.00113.0026.005.7524.760.090.400.501.840.310.38-28.2797.269.641808:001891.83589.00
David PastrnakBOSRW99.8%18.8932.0063.0095.00284.0089.0024.0044.008.5627.450.150.120.284.496.207.33-25.07101.507.941548:001595.31789.00
Mikko RantanenDALRW98.8%18.8727.0057.0084.00178.0054.0038.0071.006.9325.800.060.050.113.9570.1777.28-27.3683.922.681639:001694.74661.00
Jackson LaCombeANAD97.5%18.7510.0047.0057.00141.0070.00131.0026.003.6622.410.170.831.001.190.080.10-34.9098.40-7.421869:002121.34538.00
Jesper BrattNJDRW95.1%18.6420.0054.0074.00176.0075.0027.0011.005.3524.000.500.671.172.583.594.36-23.5981.72-6.251473:001737.01574.00
Darren RaddyshTORD97.3%18.549.0042.0051.00182.0057.0095.0041.003.7922.330.070.370.441.140.000.00-21.2685.262.631622:001735.64501.00
Martin NecasCOLRW99.9%18.4135.0055.0090.00214.0075.0022.0022.0011.1929.600.270.210.485.2221.7122.44-25.8585.1413.301575:001645.09745.00
Jake GuentzelTBLLW99.5%18.2932.0044.0076.00205.0038.0039.0033.0011.7330.020.800.501.304.20198.27211.5448.4%23.8876.037.791581:001729.10666.00
Shayne GostisbehereCARD95.5%18.2613.0035.0048.00150.0034.0066.0027.006.2324.480.010.050.061.740.000.00-22.4773.516.421422:001604.10506.00
Jackson BlakeCARRW80.8%18.2418.0041.0060.00177.0015.0033.0034.006.3624.600.090.090.182.415.897.42-22.6465.755.391240:001367.99536.00
Macklin CelebriniSJSC100.0%18.2338.0059.0097.00265.0045.0054.0038.008.8427.060.510.390.904.28557.18574.8349.2%29.0995.85-17.491552:001579.29796.00
Zach WerenskiCBJD99.6%17.9717.0057.0074.00265.0023.00128.0020.004.6622.630.260.971.222.330.000.00-32.56116.124.662130:002160.08773.00
Rasmus DahlinBUFD99.5%17.5218.0048.0066.00194.0076.0098.0059.006.2223.740.100.260.353.190.000.00-27.0897.293.781786:001995.84641.00
Miro HeiskanenDALD98.1%17.528.0048.0056.00148.0027.00125.0033.002.4419.960.211.181.391.170.000.00-29.83102.083.461996:001983.27554.00
Matthew SchaeferNYID99.9%17.4216.0045.0061.00239.0041.0097.0033.005.7623.180.060.230.291.930.000.00-35.93102.130.311935:002087.73652.00
Lucas RaymondDETRW94.3%17.3421.0046.0067.00187.0040.0026.0024.005.9323.270.260.220.482.351.231.46-26.1773.25-8.791483:001738.45540.00
William NylanderTORRW99.0%17.3041.0056.0097.00237.0015.0026.0015.0011.6828.980.330.190.525.1948.3261.82-28.2473.332.511524:001709.36754.00
Nikolaj EhlersCARLW89.4%16.8116.0039.0055.00189.0025.0022.0011.005.5222.330.020.020.032.149.8612.21-19.4870.425.561251:001464.27488.00
Moritz SeiderDETD98.9%16.607.0040.0047.00162.00148.00174.0042.002.3918.990.110.640.750.780.000.00-28.17100.42-12.381978:002224.71576.00
Jason RobertsonDALLW99.1%16.5836.0049.0085.00262.0054.0029.0024.0010.2826.860.010.010.025.262.623.12-24.7979.742.391487:001565.84745.00
Andrei SvechnikovCARLW97.7%16.3935.0040.0075.00216.00161.0020.0062.0013.7030.100.040.020.064.698.3110.19-22.0872.105.821316:001538.03668.00
Brandt ClarkeLAKD94.7%15.9010.0042.0052.00183.0025.00156.0070.003.2719.170.020.120.141.320.000.00-22.8879.158.081432:001625.35582.00
Mathew BarzalNYIRW81.4%15.7519.0053.0072.00180.0033.0049.0035.004.7220.460.010.020.032.29202.06259.3343.8%28.0179.300.251566:001628.88607.00
Brandon HagelTBLLW99.3%15.7440.0047.0087.00237.0053.0053.0053.0011.6227.362.141.263.405.2524.6230.51-30.3577.378.491612:001842.96770.00
Charlie McAvoyBOSD95.5%15.7010.0043.0053.00124.0095.00138.0064.003.1918.890.241.041.281.400.000.00-26.7792.629.571797:002011.81520.00
Auston MatthewsTORC99.1%15.6347.0052.00100.00299.0052.0089.0016.0012.8828.511.350.642.005.95725.82543.0457.2%28.6773.812.701621:001786.79940.00
Connor BedardCHIC97.2%15.4829.0050.0079.00235.0038.0031.0050.007.5523.020.040.030.063.40320.98370.7446.4%25.9780.69-16.951521:001622.79618.00
Artemi PanarinLAKLW97.4%15.4334.0048.0082.00234.0019.0012.0023.009.2524.680.120.090.224.500.670.78-23.9384.478.761617:001735.75629.00
Dylan GuentherUTARW99.3%14.9239.0035.0074.00256.0054.0024.0020.0015.0429.960.310.120.435.2121.4525.84-20.6567.634.251327:001635.04717.00
Mika ZibanejadNYRC98.2%14.8922.0046.0068.00192.0095.0056.0017.006.3521.241.140.841.982.43545.32478.0753.3%26.2382.7716.011532:001843.84578.00
Filip HronekVAND93.2%14.625.0043.0049.00116.00117.00126.0027.001.3715.990.101.061.160.710.080.10-27.5596.95-11.511852:002116.58450.00
Mikael GranlundANAC63.7%14.3617.0041.0058.00146.0039.0057.0019.005.0419.401.010.961.972.02470.32493.9848.8%23.6175.22-5.741504:001818.70492.00
J.T. MillerNYRC90.1%14.0219.0046.0066.00145.00144.0042.0048.004.8518.870.680.791.472.10613.80439.9558.2%22.0577.3615.221444:001874.78519.00
Mark ScheifeleWPGC98.7%13.9830.0053.0083.00164.0038.0043.0042.006.6920.670.210.170.377.44563.10620.0847.6%26.6591.13-0.301625:001664.07630.00
Elias PetterssonVANC93.4%13.9316.0045.0062.00144.00125.0086.0012.004.1018.030.700.881.582.26649.19722.8147.3%26.1969.61-8.511446:001737.58523.00
Kirill MarchenkoTORRW98.0%13.6925.0041.0066.00206.0066.0035.0042.006.9020.590.050.030.083.175.997.18-25.8973.972.381451:001583.63601.00
Josh MorrisseyWPGD98.3%13.6311.0042.0053.00159.0037.00106.0030.002.9616.600.070.310.392.730.000.00-22.9095.00-0.351809:002061.59532.00
Aleksander BarkovFLAC90.2%13.5315.0041.0057.00129.0065.0041.0015.004.5818.110.510.340.852.01486.05422.3953.5%18.7655.171.651174:001447.99459.00
Wyatt JohnstonDALC99.8%13.3830.0043.0073.00203.0050.0050.0025.008.9822.360.490.280.774.39389.22401.0649.3%23.4768.162.481523:001642.55636.00
Mats ZuccarelloNew team · 3 GP with LAKLAKRW40.8%13.3617.0040.0058.00137.0022.0032.0024.004.7518.110.010.010.012.2527.8133.17-21.8576.237.771452:001479.28460.00
Ryan Nugent-HopkinsEDMLW74.3%13.1714.0039.0053.00141.0025.0033.0020.004.1217.300.450.591.031.85200.92211.0548.8%21.4663.085.011403:001599.79441.00
Filip ForsbergNSHLW99.1%13.1129.0039.0067.00231.00112.0038.0034.008.6121.720.110.050.164.6411.8815.45-30.0587.78-8.531491:001734.41597.00
Ryan O'ReillyNSHC81.0%13.0922.0040.0061.00139.0020.0065.0025.006.2819.361.581.322.903.52710.59591.9054.6%28.0568.66-9.151566:001854.03488.00
Luke HughesNJDD83.0%13.0210.0036.0045.00173.0019.0057.0032.003.2016.220.110.480.591.290.090.12-30.1492.53-7.701739:001881.74425.00
Kirill KaprizovMINLW98.3%12.9356.0046.00102.00257.0042.0032.0022.0015.9428.860.110.050.1610.635.116.32-23.6387.65-4.591701:001612.23907.00
Brayden PointTBLC94.1%12.8231.0037.0068.00188.0014.0036.0015.0010.6823.500.140.080.224.07396.27442.6847.2%23.1764.547.401495:001628.49602.00
Luke EvangelistaNJDRW70.4%12.8018.0037.0055.00173.0024.0026.0030.005.5818.370.020.020.042.320.780.93-18.9157.42-4.711164:001306.90463.00
Dylan StromeWSHC81.0%12.5218.0043.0061.00132.0014.0050.0033.004.3416.850.080.090.172.27695.84563.9355.2%19.9368.4611.671371:001589.12497.00
Juraj SlafkovskyMTLRW97.5%12.3423.0038.0061.00181.00112.0065.0048.006.9019.240.120.090.203.8522.7531.14-22.8574.374.561431:001568.62553.00
Kyle ConnorWPGLW98.9%12.3042.0046.0088.00267.0025.0028.0014.0010.5122.811.450.712.1610.411.201.43-25.3676.68-0.301638:001743.83776.00
Nick SchmaltzUTARW97.1%12.2536.0037.0073.00202.0028.0042.0019.0013.1525.401.450.692.144.81348.65393.8547.0%28.6872.254.891467:001806.10630.00
Drake BathersonOTTRW96.7%12.1627.0034.0061.00171.00130.0024.0041.009.3421.500.120.070.194.3711.9513.77-23.0165.644.141364:001806.46513.00
Jake SandersonOTTD96.8%12.1612.0039.0050.00166.0034.00134.0012.003.3315.490.170.680.851.940.000.00-28.2993.096.301809:002191.65556.00
Brady TkachukFLALW98.9%12.1430.0029.0059.00265.00239.0022.0090.0011.2823.420.350.150.504.01205.21188.5952.1%20.5764.431.811357:001803.67588.00
Zachary BensonBUFLW53.2%11.9012.0036.0048.00145.0072.0034.0051.003.4615.360.660.791.462.1216.2320.28-19.8360.902.541281:001606.24422.00
Sidney CrosbyPITC98.7%11.8226.0041.0067.00193.0067.0034.0028.007.0318.850.020.010.032.64902.24742.9254.8%23.9481.005.861531:001749.11515.00
Dylan CozensOTTC85.2%11.8117.0031.0047.00182.00203.0032.0040.005.5317.340.180.150.332.75445.55403.5452.5%20.0462.954.121346:001764.06447.00
Nazem KadriCOLC69.5%11.6520.0035.0055.00215.0048.0035.0033.005.3817.030.150.120.272.98458.36518.5846.9%23.6777.0012.961485:001726.72502.00
Tage ThompsonBUFC99.5%11.6542.0034.0076.00283.0072.0042.0036.0012.5824.230.590.190.787.43383.17453.0945.8%25.1873.672.941486:001807.89752.00
Vince DunnSEAD91.3%11.4715.0034.0049.00152.0031.0091.0055.004.5115.990.150.360.512.300.000.00-22.8085.870.401703:001890.37477.00
Evgeni MalkinPITC85.2%11.3726.0036.0061.00177.0026.0026.0053.007.6319.000.010.000.012.64168.14183.2547.9%23.4775.085.241380:001520.95525.00
Steven StamkosNSHC94.5%11.3730.0030.0060.00188.0080.0034.0039.0010.4321.800.090.030.124.80304.08257.3554.2%23.0067.16-7.971421:001635.27511.00
Will SmithSJSRW94.5%11.3526.0041.0067.00182.0020.0020.0017.006.7318.080.210.100.302.9356.0263.97-19.8769.44-14.851346:001472.38517.00
Chandler StephensonSEAC24.0%11.3513.0041.0054.0077.0018.0040.0032.002.7114.060.590.871.461.99745.51665.3152.8%31.7767.880.331451:001857.45369.00
Sam ReinhartFLARW97.3%11.3442.0028.0069.00208.0088.0045.0016.0016.9028.241.420.441.865.62152.73182.9545.5%23.3574.572.151619:001816.26648.00
Thomas ChabotOTTD87.9%11.219.0030.0039.00164.0053.00168.0033.003.1714.380.150.620.771.460.000.00-30.0696.516.241873:002193.01566.00
Alex DeBrincatDETLW98.7%11.2137.0037.0074.00260.0042.0040.0026.0011.7923.000.220.100.324.1522.3127.26-26.2572.88-8.451440:001646.78702.00
Ivan DemidovMTLRW89.6%11.1720.0036.0056.00125.0029.0022.0030.005.6316.800.080.070.153.350.430.51-17.2253.923.471081:001267.83432.00
Robert ThomasSTLC85.3%11.1720.0050.0071.00137.0014.0047.0028.003.7814.950.880.951.832.80727.83661.4152.4%25.5885.902.891527:001907.59559.00
Travis KonecnyPHIRW87.5%11.0120.0040.0060.00156.00102.0036.0052.004.5615.570.330.270.612.4227.4733.18-20.4277.21-10.231415:001770.55465.00
Matthew BoldyMINRW100.0%11.0132.0035.0068.00264.0068.0066.0038.008.7819.791.280.631.906.0757.8970.88-30.6979.02-4.271607:001586.58723.00
Roope HintzDALC83.0%10.9026.0037.0063.00174.0078.0033.0023.007.1218.030.380.220.593.80581.58456.4856.0%19.3366.122.181334:001644.01579.00
Gabriel VilardiWPGRW73.9%10.6524.0033.0057.00147.0020.0041.0023.006.4317.080.010.010.025.9568.5971.22-21.8264.82-0.261427:001512.94482.00
John TavaresTORC95.0%10.6526.0034.0061.00184.0068.0030.0030.007.5018.150.020.010.033.29705.58537.7056.8%21.3769.482.201343:001560.44501.00
Bowen ByramCHID88.8%10.5810.0036.0047.00111.0052.00101.0044.002.6813.260.120.540.671.170.000.00-23.2586.58-20.171689:001940.89429.00
Beckett SenneckeANARW95.4%10.5327.0036.0063.00200.0090.0029.0061.007.2117.750.080.040.123.213.163.76-23.9279.80-5.381392:001625.46524.00

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Start from total assists. Each player's goals come from Edgehalla's goal model this season (LineupExperts for longer ranges); assists and ice time from LineupExperts. Our model splits those goals and assists between even strength, the power play and the penalty kill in proportion to the minutes the player has been getting in each situation (recent games weighted most) times his shrunk scoring rate per 60 minutes there. Projected power-play plus shorthanded assists never exceed projected assists.

What moves a player up

- Power-play minutes per game, recent games weighted most - Power-play assist rate per 60 minutes, shrunk toward the league average for forwards or defensemen - Total assists from LineupExperts

What it does not use

opponent penalty-kill quality or unit-by-unit tracking.

💡
Pro Tip: Defensemen who quarterback a power play often project for more PPA than their goal totals suggest. Pair them with the PPG leaders on the same team.

Power-play quarterbacks

Defensemen with heavy power-play minutes lead this list more often than their point totals suggest.

Defensemen Projections

Power-play points

Power-play goals plus power-play assists in one ranking.

Power Play Points

Power-play goals

The finishing side of the same power plays.

Power Play Goals

Related Projections

Frequently Asked Questions

LineupExperts' projected assists are split by strength in proportion to the player's recent power-play, penalty-kill and even-strength minutes times his shrunk assists-per-60 rate in each situation. The power-play share is the PPA projection.
It depends on deployment. A defenseman on the top unit plays nearly every power-play second, so his share of assists on the man advantage is high. The model reads that from his minutes, not from his position alone.
If he plays little power-play time, most of his assists are projected at even strength. Power-play minutes are the main driver of the split.
In our 2024-25 and 2025-26 backtests the PPA split beat a naive per-game rate at every cutoff, and the top three deciles of predictions landed within 10% of actual totals.

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