Edgehalla

NHL Projected Giveaways - Rest of Season

A few leagues subtract points for giveaways. Our projection multiplies each player's giveaway rate per 60 minutes, adjusted for home-rink scorer bias and shrunk toward his position's average, by LineupExperts' projected ice time. The list opens with the players projected to commit the most giveaways: usually puck-carrying defensemen with big minutes.

Season Outlook: Oct 4 through Apr 10, 2027
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Updated: 4:37 PM UTC(hourly)
5 games • 791 players

Rate

giveaways per 60 minutes over this season and (weighted less) the last two. Home-game counts are divided by that rink's scorer factor, because some arenas record far more giveaways than others.

Shrinkage

the rate is pulled toward the position average with the weight of about 415 minutes for forwards and 910 for defensemen, so a hot or cold week moves it only a little.

Projected giveaways = rate × projected ice time ÷ 60.

Recording change

from 2024-25 the NHL's scorers record roughly twice as many giveaways as before, so compare players within a season, not across eras.

Track record

in our 2025-26 backtest the projection beat a naive per-game rate at every cutoff, with the top three deciles within 3% of actual totals.

💡
Pro Tip: Giveaways follow puck touches. The defensemen who lead in giveaways usually lead in assists and ice time too: the penalty rarely outweighs what they add.
💡

Forward-looking projections only

ROS stats represent expected future production—they don't include any stats already accumulated this season.

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

How the model works

Sorted by Projected Giveaways

719 players
Show

Skaters100 of 719

PlayerTeamPosRost%GV† ↓GAPTSSOGHITBLKPIMPPG†PPA†PPP†SHG†SHA†SHP†GWG†FOW†FOL†FO%†TK†+/-†TOISFT†FPTS
Zach WerenskiCLBD99.6%118.3519.0059.0079.00282.0026.00123.0023.005.3819.5524.940.250.791.042.500.000.00-36.422.552202:002184.48802.00
Quinn HughesMIND99.6%115.1816.0077.0093.00216.0011.0086.0033.005.9334.0239.950.010.060.072.760.000.00-32.17-7.792194:001926.57775.00
Nathan MacKinnonCOLC100.0%109.5244.0082.00126.00367.0057.0043.0035.0012.5925.6338.230.060.050.109.02712.46698.9950.5%28.3825.591830:001948.601088.00
Travis SanheimPHID67.3%108.918.0027.0035.00110.0057.00154.0028.000.802.853.650.271.021.291.030.000.00-29.367.511981:002452.96416.00
Miro HeiskanenDALD99.4%107.148.0049.0057.00163.0025.00136.0030.002.9020.5823.480.170.951.111.200.000.00-32.76-2.842111:002083.77570.00
Evan BouchardEDMD99.9%106.5323.0062.0085.00227.0033.00101.0029.009.0628.1337.190.220.660.882.870.000.00-29.38-3.671985:002099.08801.00
John CarlsonTBD99.0%105.9412.0051.0064.00175.0036.00121.0026.004.7121.5226.240.170.820.991.620.380.47-32.3613.991933:002054.49609.00
Roman JosiNSHD98.0%105.8818.0046.0063.00207.0038.00126.0034.006.2317.9424.170.250.480.732.690.000.00-28.97-22.442051:002184.67605.00
Mikhail SergachevUTAD98.3%105.5711.0051.0062.00162.0054.00132.0043.003.4918.2721.760.261.321.581.770.000.00-31.319.252016:002436.73595.00
Rasmus DahlinBUFD99.8%105.1720.0054.0074.00212.0089.0091.0067.007.2420.9728.210.120.290.413.190.000.00-29.876.001993:002268.82692.00
Cale MakarCOLD99.8%105.0024.0067.0091.00227.0040.00129.0019.008.8228.7637.580.300.921.224.920.000.00-33.4529.702064:002163.45869.00
Mike MathesonMOND84.6%104.515.0025.0030.00126.0061.00158.0044.000.191.051.250.221.261.480.690.000.00-30.024.962025:002188.19401.00
MacKenzie WeegarUTAD92.5%104.085.0024.0029.00144.00180.00171.0058.000.985.136.110.080.420.500.800.110.13-29.189.211900:002578.77424.00
Josh MorrisseyWPGD98.9%104.0712.0046.0058.00173.0042.00118.0032.003.7015.6819.380.070.270.342.180.000.00-26.562.702019:002276.55587.00
Erik KarlssonPITD95.1%103.8512.0053.0065.00181.0024.0080.0023.004.2321.8926.130.210.971.171.450.000.00-30.379.621922:001987.76567.00
Matthew SchaeferNYID99.7%103.6718.0044.0062.00240.0039.00103.0038.006.6916.5423.240.100.290.382.300.000.00-30.68-1.712025:002194.38672.00
Moritz SeiderDETD99.7%103.538.0042.0050.00169.00148.00175.0046.002.3814.7017.080.140.700.831.050.000.00-30.06-13.722033:002289.87596.00
Seth JonesFLAD79.8%103.479.0033.0042.00160.0085.0098.0031.003.8714.7818.650.130.530.661.140.000.00-30.105.232020:002255.36444.00
Jack HughesNJC99.8%102.4138.0057.0095.00315.009.0039.0016.009.4417.3626.810.510.320.824.82260.22393.0039.8%30.85-5.801741:001801.20857.00
Connor McDavidEDMC99.9%102.0441.0096.00137.00273.0050.0031.0038.0011.6838.5250.201.340.922.265.11467.70471.6449.8%29.61-3.391857:001884.991050.00
Thomas HarleyDALD88.2%101.8811.0028.0039.00149.0045.00150.0027.002.456.779.210.130.340.471.660.000.00-31.85-2.801934:002107.15493.00
Shea TheodoreLVD91.5%101.5710.0049.0058.00168.005.0096.0026.002.4113.1015.500.160.780.951.540.000.00-27.90-7.691881:002295.71567.00
Nikita KucherovTBRW99.9%101.3340.0080.00120.00254.0033.0033.0042.0014.6635.7050.360.270.200.475.401.301.55-27.9811.231724:001811.77949.00
Filip HronekVAND90.8%101.148.0045.0052.00131.00123.00113.0038.001.9412.9414.880.191.141.331.130.100.12-28.23-19.891968:002255.20471.00
Jake SandersonOTTD98.6%100.9713.0042.0055.00180.0036.00145.0013.004.3815.7220.100.311.081.391.850.000.00-30.72-1.031958:002368.52601.00
Lane HutsonMOND99.5%100.778.0061.0069.00128.0032.00131.0033.002.4721.4423.910.030.210.231.100.000.00-31.654.171942:002014.83599.00
Rasmus AnderssonLVD93.7%100.399.0026.0034.00159.0032.00149.0057.001.875.587.450.170.480.651.390.000.00-27.05-7.991917:002660.41419.00
Drew DoughtyLAD22.3%100.377.0025.0032.00104.0064.00100.0052.001.515.617.110.080.410.490.900.000.00-26.2115.661941:002200.04345.00
Ivan ProvorovCLBD36.1%100.175.0022.0027.00123.0028.00125.0028.000.673.193.870.140.630.770.660.000.00-27.532.371903:001999.14384.00
David PastrnakBOSRW99.8%100.0135.0064.00100.00297.0076.0028.0052.008.3517.9926.340.060.040.104.996.507.54-28.622.901650:001733.00823.00
Noah DobsonMOND97.5%99.7510.0034.0044.00170.0064.00176.0038.001.836.648.470.220.851.071.380.000.00-30.534.341875:002234.55517.00
Brock FaberMIND94.5%99.3510.0028.0038.00153.0034.00134.0032.001.223.925.130.160.630.791.730.000.00-29.63-7.931936:002070.49483.00
Kris LetangPITD46.7%98.994.0030.0034.00124.00107.00101.0044.000.726.026.730.040.360.400.480.000.00-28.6710.091844:001964.14362.00
Macklin CelebriniSJC99.8%98.9540.0069.00108.00292.0048.0061.0041.0010.5723.0933.660.620.471.094.67608.06635.2748.9%30.85-6.051700:001722.86884.00
Thomas ChabotOTTD82.8%98.859.0032.0041.00162.0056.00146.0031.002.378.9211.290.130.530.661.280.000.00-29.43-1.041921:002326.89511.00
Esa LindellDALD37.2%98.615.0023.0027.0089.0042.00170.0020.000.512.452.960.190.941.130.750.000.00-27.42-2.871874:001969.73419.00
Brandon MontourSEAD82.8%98.4912.0026.0037.00212.00107.0099.0059.002.926.719.630.070.160.231.780.000.00-28.93-7.271872:001960.46438.00
Vladislav GavrikovNYRD41.0%98.465.0022.0027.00104.0051.00111.0035.000.522.392.910.120.670.800.910.000.00-24.571.301873:002189.28343.00
Devon ToewsCOLD61.5%98.385.0036.0041.00129.0041.0097.0031.000.937.748.670.100.810.901.030.000.00-29.4730.771939:002305.71464.00
Leon DraisaitlEDMC99.9%98.3446.0064.00110.00243.0041.0024.0037.0014.6823.6638.340.470.250.725.73759.19629.8454.7%28.45-3.161755:001850.18908.00
Jackson LaCombeANAD97.6%97.3710.0048.0058.00158.0073.00134.0026.002.9915.5518.540.140.690.821.310.100.12-34.42-8.071885:002136.12554.00
Colton ParaykoSTLD37.4%96.915.0018.0023.00126.00103.00176.0019.000.130.480.610.140.500.650.620.000.00-29.002.371871:002312.83399.00
Kirill KaprizovMINLW98.2%96.8351.0051.00101.00287.0052.0032.0031.0015.9116.2132.110.020.010.048.812.713.31-27.84-6.301831:001736.44915.00
Luke HughesNJD84.4%96.8311.0039.0050.00182.0022.0064.0033.003.2412.7616.010.130.490.621.400.120.14-30.18-6.351814:001982.01473.00
Adam FoxNYRD99.0%96.4410.0063.0073.00140.0035.00109.0032.003.2123.6826.900.060.420.481.810.000.00-30.231.181886:002184.46624.00
Brady SkjeiNSHD18.4%96.385.0022.0027.00119.0064.0089.0038.000.612.903.510.220.791.010.750.000.00-27.98-22.251812:002170.10301.00
Mark ScheifeleWPGC99.4%95.9833.0053.0087.00175.0041.0049.0050.007.9814.5222.490.250.170.426.00588.19636.4548.0%29.842.201695:001729.31670.00
Noah HanifinLVD52.7%95.7110.0025.0035.00159.0041.00123.0016.000.832.383.210.200.510.711.540.000.00-28.31-7.941813:002268.46451.00
Dougie HamiltonNJD84.3%95.6312.0029.0041.00238.0091.0093.0046.003.248.4011.640.180.490.671.520.000.00-23.97-6.141723:002040.96509.00
Jakob ChychrunWASD99.1%95.4223.0035.0058.00208.0061.00115.0063.007.6611.4919.150.080.150.233.330.000.00-29.1619.731832:001819.67660.00
Philip BrobergSTLD66.2%95.297.0033.0040.00114.0041.00104.0019.000.984.875.850.231.051.270.860.000.00-25.142.171779:002087.11431.00
Jack EichelLVC98.9%95.2836.0066.00101.00285.0034.0051.0016.009.3324.5233.851.420.962.385.54634.32686.4348.0%30.35-6.451734:001874.15895.00
Aaron EkbladFLAD49.6%95.145.0029.0033.00116.00105.00101.0065.001.529.6211.130.120.790.910.640.390.48-25.795.281878:002309.67381.00
Alexander RomanovNYID15.4%94.794.0016.0019.00115.00170.00177.0025.000.040.180.230.150.660.810.510.000.00-26.98-1.771775:002161.92379.00
Mattias EkholmEDMD77.1%93.875.0028.0032.00131.0064.00111.0030.000.352.182.540.090.580.670.620.000.00-24.79-3.751728:002076.48432.00
Jacob TroubaSJD76.1%93.855.0021.0026.00146.00156.00172.0052.000.421.872.290.200.770.970.580.000.00-24.77-7.481790:002198.27418.00
Alex VlasicCHID9.0%93.472.0013.0016.0085.0039.00128.0019.000.010.100.120.070.530.600.240.000.00-27.91-21.181791:002120.06234.00
Victor HedmanTBD92.7%93.4610.0031.0041.00162.0055.00129.0036.002.568.6411.200.100.410.511.350.000.00-25.2014.021784:002130.69504.00
Mitch MarnerLVRW98.8%93.0325.0061.0086.00169.0031.0046.0019.006.5220.2126.731.151.102.253.85122.41164.2342.7%31.50-6.421715:001872.34680.00
Vince DunnSEAD89.4%92.8115.0035.0050.00168.0037.0088.0060.004.7413.1117.850.010.030.042.220.000.00-26.43-6.641791:001987.22476.00
Neal PionkWPGD32.3%92.766.0022.0027.00134.00164.00114.0054.001.094.175.260.150.570.721.090.000.00-25.492.591802:002217.77390.00
Hampus LindholmBOSD16.7%92.727.0024.0031.00112.0023.00114.0054.001.124.055.160.220.680.901.000.000.00-27.053.421753:002123.01367.00
K'Andre MillerCARD64.0%92.638.0029.0037.00126.00115.00104.0048.001.826.888.700.160.710.871.150.360.44-31.460.651810:002173.72393.00
Charlie McAvoyBOSD96.5%92.419.0042.0052.00123.0094.00136.0064.002.8715.4018.270.281.111.391.280.000.00-26.893.201772:001987.69513.00
Simon EdvinssonDETD42.3%92.348.0019.0028.0096.00102.00155.0071.000.260.680.950.140.380.521.050.000.00-26.13-13.331761:002112.87393.00
Cameron YorkPHID20.5%92.246.0025.0032.0095.0041.00153.0031.001.366.097.450.180.760.950.770.000.00-24.186.381772:002285.42382.00
Kevin BahlCGYD4.8%92.183.0013.0016.0067.00121.00109.0067.000.090.440.530.090.460.550.420.000.00-28.99-22.991781:002428.69231.00
Darnell NurseSJD68.8%91.696.0019.0026.00166.00150.00158.0089.000.230.791.020.120.360.470.700.000.00-25.03-7.441756:002138.45427.00
Gustav ForslingFLAD41.5%91.689.0021.0030.00153.0066.0099.0039.001.162.924.080.300.781.071.140.000.00-27.695.741880:002246.11421.00
Justin FaulkDETD55.0%91.628.0021.0029.00148.0077.00126.0036.001.785.046.810.110.320.441.050.000.00-26.27-12.651806:002211.22389.00
Marcus PetterssonNYRD6.6%91.573.0016.0019.0073.0081.00141.0045.000.080.440.520.090.570.660.540.000.00-25.651.251750:002058.49279.00
Owen PowerBUFD53.4%91.188.0033.0040.00122.0029.00103.0018.001.114.785.890.170.750.921.280.000.00-24.666.021777:002127.55399.00
Jake McCabeTORD34.0%91.084.0022.0025.0078.00123.00167.0066.000.140.830.970.160.991.150.580.000.00-24.796.691760:002365.61371.00
Jaccob SlavinCARD16.1%90.974.0018.0022.00123.0024.00125.008.000.050.270.320.110.630.740.570.000.00-30.550.701789:002127.78376.00
Bowen ByramCHID96.2%90.9212.0041.0053.00120.0057.00106.0044.002.8110.2213.030.160.590.751.440.000.00-25.08-19.251789:002093.24479.00
Dylan DeMeloWPGD5.7%90.812.0016.0018.0073.00111.00103.0033.000.030.240.270.050.450.500.360.000.00-25.792.671746:002202.32275.00
Dmitry OrlovSJD34.9%90.595.0030.0035.0099.00112.0074.0035.001.288.8510.130.050.240.290.580.000.00-23.50-6.501686:001881.61315.00
Mattias SamuelssonBUFD79.0%90.338.0024.0032.0099.00137.00149.0039.000.050.160.210.260.811.071.280.000.00-23.176.241753:002074.63422.00
Morgan RiellyTORD75.7%90.248.0031.0039.00135.0039.00115.0025.002.129.1511.270.080.350.431.150.000.00-25.105.941732:002307.87397.00
Martin NecasCOLRW100.0%90.0036.0062.0098.00229.0080.0026.0025.0010.4019.8730.270.010.010.027.3824.8526.15-26.6822.691647:001738.00807.00
Mikko RantanenDALRW98.7%89.2227.0060.0087.00187.0055.0039.0074.008.8824.0632.940.010.000.014.0770.8579.69-29.91-2.131736:001802.64668.00
Parker WotherspoonLVD20.2%89.221.0016.0017.0067.00145.00106.0045.000.020.310.330.030.530.560.150.000.00-23.92-7.071578:001791.46223.00
Mario FerraroWPGD14.6%89.074.0014.0018.0091.00131.00149.0040.000.080.320.400.140.520.660.730.000.00-27.052.631719:001846.16283.00
John MarinoUTAD17.7%88.923.0028.0031.0060.0028.0077.0022.000.171.731.900.060.590.650.480.000.00-23.968.661687:002281.80319.00
Jonas BrodinMIND5.0%88.895.0016.0021.00100.0021.00164.0022.000.090.320.410.110.490.600.860.000.00-25.63-7.501766:002054.51387.00
Artemi PanarinLALW97.0%88.1235.0054.0090.00240.0012.0014.0017.009.9318.1928.120.140.110.254.510.780.92-26.3411.881670:001826.99682.00
Brett PesceNJD0.3%88.112.0014.0016.00106.0026.00135.0023.000.020.170.190.120.800.920.250.000.00-27.22-6.841725:002051.50286.00
Jake WalmanEDMD32.6%88.019.0019.0028.00144.0035.00142.0030.001.623.635.250.070.170.251.120.000.00-24.75-3.421649:002105.59397.00
Niko MikkolaFLAD4.9%87.864.0012.0016.00100.00141.0099.0065.000.120.390.510.110.390.500.510.000.00-24.735.231655:002170.41276.00
Robert ThomasSTLC92.8%87.8023.0054.0077.00145.0012.0048.0029.005.2314.6019.841.281.122.402.83742.78670.5052.6%27.631.761607:001975.82614.00
Nikita ZadorovBOSD39.0%87.724.0018.0022.00103.00211.00104.00136.000.030.150.190.140.580.720.570.000.00-25.043.451671:002032.27330.00
Ryan PulockNYID10.4%87.683.0019.0023.0091.0063.00151.0016.000.050.330.380.090.740.830.380.000.00-25.59-1.711713:002296.27342.00
Vincent TrocheckUTAC88.5%87.5221.0036.0057.00164.00213.0065.0051.004.439.1913.621.210.771.983.37800.18605.5356.9%28.427.761714:002035.06504.00
Anthony DeAngeloNYID23.5%87.497.0027.0034.00152.0033.0077.0041.001.425.957.380.000.020.020.900.000.00-23.22-1.521649:002008.62359.00
Artyom LevshunovCHID45.1%87.463.0020.0023.00105.00104.0088.0046.000.705.145.830.030.230.260.360.000.00-25.70-17.301608:001812.23240.00
Adam PelechNYID3.2%87.112.0018.0021.00112.0076.00121.0043.000.070.660.730.060.630.690.260.000.00-26.31-1.711723:002265.84330.00
Brent BurnsCOLD49.9%87.008.0022.0030.00150.0020.0083.0031.000.661.952.610.220.730.951.640.000.00-22.8827.001632:002095.73396.00
Cam FowlerSTLD13.6%86.984.0023.0027.0093.009.0088.0018.001.026.377.390.060.360.430.490.000.00-23.762.021760:002178.56312.00
Ben ChiarotDETD13.3%86.954.009.0013.0099.00158.00152.0063.000.050.130.190.090.220.320.530.000.00-24.49-13.011707:002130.66277.00
Mika ZibanejadNYRC98.3%86.8924.0043.0067.00214.0081.0049.0017.006.7513.0619.811.090.891.994.35564.31507.4452.7%28.600.981615:001965.08575.00

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Takeaways

The positive side of puck battles, projected the same way.

Takeaway Projections

Puck-moving defensemen

The players with the most giveaways are often the ones driving offence from the back.

Defensemen Projections

Related Projections

Frequently Asked Questions

Each player's rink-adjusted giveaway rate per 60 minutes (recent seasons weighted, shrunk toward the position average) times LineupExperts' projected ice time.
From 2024-25 the NHL records roughly twice as many giveaways a season as it did before. The projection uses recent rates, so it already reflects the new recording.
Those are the players who cost the most in leagues that subtract for giveaways. Players with few projected minutes give the puck away least simply because they barely play, so a fewest-first list is not useful. Click the column to flip it.

Projections by Category

Find projected leaders for specific stats

Scoring Projections

Goals, assists, and points leaders

Peripheral Stats

SOG, hits, blocks, ice time, giveaways and shifts

Faceoff & Physical

Faceoffs won, lost and FO%, PIM, takeaways and +/-

Goalie Projections

Starts, wins, losses, saves, SV% and GAA

Fantasy Points

Standard, DraftKings, and FanDuel

NHL Team Projections

Click a team to see rest of season player projections

Related Fantasy Hockey Tools