Edgehalla

NHL Projected Faceoffs Lost - Rest of Season

Some points leagues take points away for faceoffs lost. This projection is projected faceoffs taken minus projected faceoffs won. The list opens with the centers projected to lose the most draws, which means the highest-volume centers: they lose the most even when they win most of their draws.

Season Outlook: Oct 4 through Apr 10, 2027
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Updated: 4:37 PM UTC(hourly)
5 games • 171 players

Volume

faceoffs taken per 60 minutes from the player's own recent history, times LineupExperts' projected ice time.

Win rate

faceoff percentage shrunk toward 50.5% with the weight of about 96 faceoffs.

Faceoffs lost = faceoffs taken − projected faceoffs won.

Track record

over the rest of a season the projection is well calibrated (top three deciles within 8% of actual totals), but in one one-week window of our backtest it did slightly worse than a naive per-game rate, so treat single-week numbers as rough.

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Pro Tip: In leagues that score FOW and FOL, net faceoffs (won minus lost) is what matters: a high-volume center above 50% still nets positive.
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Forward-looking projections only

ROS stats represent expected future production—they don't include any stats already accumulated this season.

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

How the model works

Sorted by Projected Faceoffs Lost

171 players
Show

Skaters100 of 171

PlayerTeamPosRost%FOL† ↓GAPTSSOGHITBLKPIMPPG†PPA†PPP†SHG†SHA†SHP†GWG†FOW†FO%†TK†GV†+/-†TOISFT†FPTS
Joel Eriksson EkMINC81.6%843.4222.0031.0053.00231.00128.0046.0038.006.9010.5317.430.730.541.273.80805.6848.9%25.0972.98-5.481609:001704.14591.00
Nico HischierNJC97.3%815.3628.0036.0064.00210.0051.0062.0021.007.7910.9018.691.480.902.383.551005.1155.2%26.8078.10-5.581688:001962.20612.00
Sidney CrosbyPITC99.9%794.9927.0053.0080.00203.0075.0034.0039.006.8414.6921.530.030.020.053.27958.4854.7%26.6180.798.041630:001873.87622.00
Elias PetterssonVANC87.4%761.3619.0042.0061.00155.0099.0099.0017.005.0612.4017.460.840.731.572.67706.0848.1%26.7876.19-14.351533:001868.24524.00
Dylan LarkinDETC96.3%761.2932.0036.0068.00245.0049.0034.0046.008.6810.3319.011.400.632.034.21854.4252.9%25.5979.08-10.471633:001937.73624.00
Mikael BacklundCGYC13.7%748.1013.0019.0032.00182.0034.0032.0021.001.071.772.831.140.922.051.81742.6649.8%25.6976.61-18.651502:002001.92360.00
Jordan StaalCARC20.0%732.6814.0018.0032.00117.00166.0050.0026.002.042.804.840.990.641.642.01873.5754.4%19.8759.350.471310:001861.25332.00
Chandler StephensonSEAC16.9%724.0416.0033.0049.0093.0025.0052.0019.003.778.8412.611.151.042.192.37775.6051.7%27.7673.71-5.781578:001986.20365.00
Nathan MacKinnonCOLC100.0%698.9944.0082.00126.00367.0057.0043.0035.0012.5925.6338.230.060.050.109.02712.4650.5%28.38109.5225.591830:001948.601088.00
Nick SuzukiMONC100.0%692.7031.0061.0092.00183.0072.0060.0023.007.8719.7727.640.620.461.084.28715.3650.8%28.6583.683.531694:001822.15767.00
Alexander WennbergSJC24.9%690.3512.0030.0042.0092.0031.0088.0016.003.348.9412.280.750.691.441.40629.9947.7%27.2570.06-5.651593:001830.63339.00
Brock NelsonCOLC87.7%689.2528.0031.0059.00179.0034.0056.0025.007.779.8717.641.660.912.575.74691.0450.1%24.4672.1722.271562:001912.93558.00
Jack EichelLVC98.9%686.4336.0066.00101.00285.0034.0051.0016.009.3324.5233.851.420.962.385.54634.3248.0%30.3595.28-6.451734:001874.15895.00
Sean MonahanCLBC18.7%681.9716.0026.0042.00130.0043.0041.0012.002.805.147.940.980.611.592.10728.1851.6%24.0470.381.711464:001870.55398.00
Robert ThomasSTLC92.8%670.5023.0054.0077.00145.0012.0048.0029.005.2314.6019.841.281.122.402.83742.7852.6%27.6387.801.761607:001975.82614.00
Anthony CirelliTBC51.1%664.4721.0029.0050.00148.0056.0065.0038.003.435.148.571.511.022.542.84635.0448.9%24.4671.8711.701486:001914.83501.00
Mark ScheifeleWPGC99.4%636.4533.0053.0087.00175.0041.0049.0050.007.9814.5222.490.250.170.426.00588.1948.0%29.8495.982.201695:001729.31670.00
Macklin CelebriniSJC99.8%635.2740.0069.00108.00292.0048.0061.0041.0010.5723.0933.660.620.471.094.67608.0648.9%30.8598.95-6.051700:001722.86884.00
Bo HorvatNYIC90.2%634.9536.0033.0070.00262.0071.0045.0036.0011.0510.9622.011.801.052.854.61785.9855.3%25.8985.76-1.351684:001893.10672.00
Leon DraisaitlEDMC99.9%629.8446.0064.00110.00243.0041.0024.0037.0014.6823.6638.340.470.250.725.73759.1954.7%28.4598.34-3.161755:001850.18908.00
Ryan McLeodBUFC26.1%628.8512.0032.0045.0092.0018.0032.0016.001.916.158.051.281.162.441.92598.4048.8%24.0972.344.391365:001877.89332.00
Elias LindholmBOSC43.3%622.0119.0029.0048.00141.0059.0065.0027.003.636.4110.050.660.361.022.71754.2454.8%22.4970.802.671461:001794.82448.00
Ryan O'ReillyNSHC84.3%616.8821.0042.0063.00150.0021.0065.0021.005.4212.7918.211.761.072.843.14743.1754.6%30.3574.03-17.471630:001935.89513.00
Vincent TrocheckUTAC88.5%605.5321.0036.0057.00164.00213.0065.0051.004.439.1913.621.210.771.983.37800.1856.9%28.4287.527.761714:002035.06504.00
John TavaresTORC96.1%595.2828.0038.0066.00199.0075.0034.0033.007.6410.6318.280.010.010.024.04768.8956.4%24.7474.564.701476:001723.33542.00
Sebastian AhoCARC98.8%592.4633.0048.0081.00216.0056.0024.0051.0011.1818.4729.651.371.032.404.73640.4651.9%26.6586.330.501634:001873.63681.00
Anton LundellFLAC45.5%590.5217.0029.0046.00170.00105.0046.0040.005.1710.1715.331.230.962.192.16645.4652.2%21.6771.083.681436:001823.95467.00
Quinton ByfieldLAC86.1%587.7629.0037.0066.00197.0068.0042.0044.006.489.1715.651.150.841.993.74512.7546.6%32.3077.4112.081597:001903.82565.00
Nazem KadriCOLC70.5%585.6923.0039.0062.00224.0051.0035.0037.005.6112.0417.640.040.030.074.72530.1847.5%24.2676.4822.221555:001842.47542.00
Dylan StromeWASC82.7%582.0521.0044.0065.00136.0017.0052.0033.005.2313.3918.620.050.050.103.04749.2856.3%22.4172.6015.041449:001695.96523.00
Pierre-Luc DuboisWASC42.3%572.3916.0037.0052.00123.0070.0046.0070.003.298.0611.350.080.050.132.31555.3249.2%21.5668.1915.031394:001777.84448.00
Ryan HartmanMINC39.7%569.0018.0024.0042.00185.0071.0078.0073.003.024.087.090.020.010.033.11481.8745.9%21.5067.20-5.041314:001444.35447.00
Matthew BeniersSEAC49.6%567.3223.0036.0059.00147.0040.0066.0019.005.298.6413.930.530.330.873.41527.5748.2%25.1376.84-5.671546:001829.11501.00
Sam BennettFLAC83.8%564.4422.0030.0052.00200.00149.0041.0087.006.589.6516.230.340.210.552.80520.2248.0%23.4473.593.731462:001761.00475.00
Auston MatthewsTORC99.1%562.6345.0042.0087.00321.0056.00100.0022.0011.1511.3622.511.460.592.056.49753.1557.2%28.3476.485.431678:001912.66881.00
Leo CarlssonANAC94.2%562.3340.0045.0085.00235.0017.0040.0026.0010.3813.4723.841.070.461.545.26464.8245.3%25.5073.07-5.941470:001739.36723.00
Noah CatesPHIC18.4%556.5316.0022.0038.00120.0093.0049.0023.002.734.287.011.280.701.982.06464.6245.5%22.0658.254.541290:001805.07377.00
Joshua NorrisBUFC38.9%551.3221.0032.0053.00132.0062.0050.0047.005.619.3714.980.310.150.463.35575.3551.1%22.0364.434.151413:001872.92466.00
Adam LowryWPGC5.7%548.439.0017.0026.0092.00156.0054.0039.000.090.190.290.620.531.151.64623.3953.2%20.7556.091.881226:001743.11267.00
Sean CouturierPHIC9.2%548.3011.0021.0031.00117.0080.0039.0031.000.691.502.190.990.801.791.42645.4354.1%23.3966.485.191374:001818.98290.00
Charlie CoyleCLBC49.4%547.5916.0036.0052.00127.00105.0056.0016.003.489.1512.631.181.062.252.10554.5150.3%25.9865.881.621430:001808.27436.00
Adam FantilliCLBC92.0%547.2932.0037.0069.00227.00143.0057.0031.006.948.8515.790.160.070.234.21538.5549.6%25.0076.411.681497:001659.33624.00
Nic DowdLVC3.2%546.579.0014.0022.0068.00140.0059.0058.000.050.090.141.040.641.681.39531.6849.3%19.3356.14-5.341188:001650.57221.00
Jason DickinsonEDMC3.2%540.938.0012.0020.0080.00117.0064.0035.000.080.140.221.170.801.971.00532.3949.6%18.5555.85-2.601178:001608.61207.00
Phillip DanaultMONC4.9%535.318.0018.0026.0093.0067.0051.0026.000.411.051.460.700.731.431.10612.1153.3%20.6765.693.271361:001717.53279.00
J.T. CompherDETC4.0%532.8010.0015.0024.0094.0024.0060.0026.000.580.991.570.740.471.211.31509.5348.9%19.2960.49-9.671308:001739.83243.00
Ryan PoehlingANAC6.7%525.0611.0024.0035.00109.0046.0097.0014.000.350.881.231.051.032.081.45494.3148.5%18.3956.21-5.581167:001615.75360.00
Aleksander BarkovFLAC97.0%517.0119.0051.0069.00157.0080.0051.0018.005.8116.8322.640.560.340.902.42594.9453.5%22.9667.533.651437:001772.37562.00
Tomas HertlLVC83.6%514.4427.0026.0053.00209.00111.0052.0027.009.228.8618.080.130.050.184.16657.6856.1%20.9863.01-4.881374:001560.73532.00
Jean-Gabriel PageauNYIC12.4%509.4911.0022.0032.00101.00131.0056.009.000.350.821.181.061.202.271.41689.1657.5%21.0362.86-1.311338:001809.23298.00
Mika ZibanejadNYRC98.3%507.4424.0043.0067.00214.0081.0049.0017.006.7513.0619.811.090.891.994.35564.3152.7%28.6086.890.981615:001965.08575.00
Christian DvorakPHIC15.9%504.1116.0028.0044.00136.0045.0059.0023.002.444.627.061.000.771.772.06592.8154.0%21.9265.614.881369:001771.03399.00
Kevin StenlundUTAC0.1%496.258.0013.0021.0074.0049.0061.0036.000.350.651.001.040.781.811.29598.9454.7%18.4856.605.881151:001677.95217.00
Michael McCarronMINC7.3%493.108.0011.0019.00117.00200.0069.0092.000.130.210.350.700.511.211.38544.2052.5%19.1952.32-4.871149:001535.75237.00
Frank NazarCHIC54.0%492.9620.0031.0051.00175.0046.0051.0033.004.788.2913.071.180.731.902.40449.9647.7%24.2372.43-14.091402:001687.89426.00
Jake EvansMONC5.7%488.3110.0016.0026.0085.00108.0061.0023.000.040.070.101.370.962.321.38578.2554.2%20.9760.973.151275:001623.72271.00
Logan CooleyUTAC93.9%487.9626.0045.0071.00155.0078.0039.0037.005.9411.7117.650.610.401.024.18428.6646.8%26.0475.936.531455:001822.95569.00
Erik HaulaLAC11.8%486.7914.0020.0034.00143.00108.0047.0052.002.644.326.960.860.941.801.80461.4648.7%19.5961.0810.111295:001777.69321.00
William KarlssonLVC24.2%476.1917.0023.0040.00161.0030.0060.0016.001.822.744.571.330.692.022.62624.2656.7%22.9165.80-5.881393:001738.21459.00
Ryan StromeCGYC4.0%475.3613.0019.0032.00112.0036.0027.0054.001.572.524.090.250.150.401.81396.2545.5%19.4463.30-15.131255:001645.84273.00
Roope HintzDALC84.1%474.7226.0038.0065.00180.0085.0034.0026.008.0212.9620.980.460.250.713.92578.5954.9%20.5568.27-1.771401:001742.47579.00
Brayden PointTBC95.2%473.3733.0041.0074.00194.0016.0040.0017.0012.3215.7228.040.250.140.394.46422.0447.1%23.7872.6810.221576:001755.84656.00
Pavel ZachaBOSC77.8%472.9119.0031.0050.00136.0064.0029.0019.004.187.3511.530.690.401.092.71531.8152.9%22.3570.672.611457:001739.52417.00
Morgan FrostCGYC22.8%472.5217.0023.0040.00160.0061.0052.0023.004.065.899.950.040.020.062.37577.2355.0%21.6861.74-14.111277:001673.49360.00
Connor McDavidEDMC99.9%471.6441.0096.00137.00273.0050.0031.0038.0011.6838.5250.201.340.922.265.11467.7049.8%29.61102.04-3.391857:001884.991050.00
Frederick GaudreauSEAC0.2%469.329.0014.0023.0094.0039.0061.0010.000.240.430.661.060.681.741.33408.8246.6%21.7458.45-5.441285:001717.73255.00
Marco RossiVANC59.7%469.1923.0034.0057.00133.0066.0046.0031.004.788.7213.510.400.230.633.24450.6449.0%22.6567.43-13.721426:001660.54440.00
Mikael GranlundANAC52.1%467.3016.0036.0052.00146.0046.0055.0022.003.839.1312.960.770.701.472.10465.4949.9%24.4575.74-6.291513:001789.89444.00
J.T. MillerNYRC91.8%463.9523.0045.0068.00169.00162.0047.0050.005.5612.5418.100.740.721.464.17640.8458.0%25.4982.210.951556:002028.05536.00
Mason McTavishSTLC51.2%462.3622.0026.0048.00169.0092.0034.0047.005.286.5311.810.060.030.082.71442.3448.9%20.2564.521.401296:001625.54432.00
Andrew CoppDETC9.2%460.9311.0028.0038.00112.0036.0058.0022.001.725.166.880.790.831.621.45519.2153.0%20.6164.62-8.891283:001699.41350.00
Teddy BluegerTORC4.8%459.978.0019.0027.0091.00113.0045.0038.000.090.260.351.921.243.161.15436.7848.7%18.6758.594.531186:001609.28225.00
Ryan GreeneCHIC10.4%459.8813.0019.0032.00108.0050.0044.0014.001.292.143.430.890.531.421.56360.0343.9%21.0964.99-15.031348:001774.80281.00
Tage ThompsonBUFC99.9%459.6344.0036.0080.00279.0087.0039.0038.0012.6711.9424.610.260.080.347.02393.0846.1%25.4174.824.511568:001893.98743.00
Barrett HaytonUTAC11.2%459.5012.0019.0031.00145.0040.0038.0055.002.143.565.700.160.110.271.93513.4152.8%19.7360.555.931275:001744.22327.00
Danila YurovMINC32.3%459.1813.0022.0036.0098.0074.0050.0030.001.222.473.690.170.130.302.25329.5241.8%17.2152.58-4.321073:001298.23307.00
Jiri KulichBUFC25.7%451.7423.0020.0043.00160.0058.0051.0023.003.233.026.250.030.010.043.67390.1546.3%19.2158.903.961220:001764.06405.00
Dalibor DvorskySTLC28.1%443.7117.0013.0030.00119.0085.0040.0031.003.702.966.660.000.000.012.09374.3645.8%17.3854.961.271154:001514.11301.00
Cody GlassNJC4.9%441.6211.0012.0023.00123.0055.0046.0031.000.500.611.110.430.210.641.40492.8852.7%16.6352.43-4.271102:001568.05261.00
Brayden SchennNYIC28.0%438.3820.0029.0049.00137.00187.0045.0053.004.977.6512.610.050.030.092.56490.0852.8%21.5664.28-1.171402:001737.57406.00
Dylan CozensOTTC90.3%436.7525.0037.0061.00214.00212.0029.0050.007.3511.8719.220.070.040.113.57473.1252.0%22.1566.44-0.701419:001909.12537.00
Nick PaulTORC8.1%436.3515.0015.0031.00116.00114.0036.0035.002.743.035.770.810.491.302.16446.5550.6%19.2158.074.231244:001585.66284.00
Wyatt JohnstonDALC99.9%433.1835.0043.0078.00223.0053.0055.0029.0012.1014.8826.970.630.310.945.27421.2449.3%25.3673.65-2.051630:001784.75677.00
Shane PintoOTTC37.1%423.4824.0026.0051.00173.0093.0058.0036.004.044.608.641.940.992.933.42443.9151.2%24.1167.69-0.791446:002018.46492.00
Logan StankovenCARC67.1%418.4221.0025.0046.00175.0050.0026.0018.004.896.2911.180.420.230.653.01348.9245.5%21.0658.230.421270:001520.74440.00
Kai UchaczLVC0.0%417.634.005.008.0061.00134.0031.0037.000.170.240.410.110.060.170.62420.5250.2%18.8557.47-5.151172:001546.50120.00
Pius SuterSTLC4.1%406.1417.0018.0034.00113.0056.0032.0018.001.611.973.571.450.642.092.09359.7847.0%20.9062.871.631349:001805.93332.00
Mark JankowskiCARC0.2%404.0812.0010.0022.0075.0045.0046.0022.001.000.961.960.860.541.391.72402.5149.9%14.8047.000.35952:001363.82233.00
Fraser MintenBOSC47.3%397.7517.0021.0038.00126.00140.0044.0016.001.572.173.741.320.641.972.42388.1849.4%21.1557.712.401225:001565.36381.00
Nicolas RoyCOLC4.9%395.9816.0019.0035.00105.0079.0043.0036.001.762.284.040.960.591.553.28407.6150.7%20.5160.3218.861185:001598.14313.00
Jack DruryNSHC5.6%395.129.0016.0026.00100.0052.0063.0034.000.210.430.641.110.661.771.34506.1256.2%18.0950.86-13.941103:001511.60298.00
Evan RodriguesNJC8.3%393.2210.0019.0030.00179.0093.0028.0037.001.984.186.160.530.420.941.27375.6848.9%22.7060.98-4.541305:001667.46313.00
Jack HughesNJC99.8%393.0038.0057.0095.00315.009.0039.0016.009.4417.3626.810.510.320.824.82260.2239.8%30.85102.41-5.801741:001801.20857.00
Anton FrondellCHIC71.6%389.1825.0032.0057.00198.0052.0051.0022.007.4910.3217.820.450.250.703.00286.3942.4%20.7859.92-12.061271:001457.73533.00
Scott LaughtonLAC5.6%389.1612.0013.0026.00122.00156.0054.0041.000.440.561.001.250.902.141.55477.0355.1%18.8561.0310.231188:001716.52266.00
Tim WasheANAC4.0%383.375.006.0011.0071.00181.0050.0031.000.010.020.030.870.471.340.66457.1854.4%16.0544.86-4.72972:001434.58142.00
Filip ChytilVANC6.4%378.6519.0017.0035.00161.0025.0022.0026.002.502.444.940.020.010.032.67366.9449.2%18.1554.85-11.291110:001373.18319.00
Lars EllerFLAC0.2%375.478.0012.0020.0081.0056.0039.0020.000.450.911.360.850.521.371.02406.2052.0%15.8750.693.111010:001508.84213.00
Shane WrightSEAC26.5%367.9416.0019.0035.00108.0053.0066.0013.003.454.417.860.020.010.032.37290.1144.1%19.5258.85-4.261151:001534.87357.00
Justin SourdifWASC17.0%367.9317.0021.0038.00109.0096.0038.0039.001.712.213.930.160.090.252.46327.1947.1%19.5058.8313.921197:001543.85368.00

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Faceoffs won

The other half of the draw: volume times win rate.

Faceoffs Won Projections

Faceoff percentage

The shrunk win rate behind both projections.

Faceoff Percentage

Related Projections

Frequently Asked Questions

Faceoffs lost scale with how many draws a player takes. A top-line center taking 20 a night loses more than a fourth-liner taking 6, even at a better percentage.
Over the rest of a season they are well calibrated. Over a single week they are noisier: in one weekly window of our backtest a naive per-game rate did slightly better.
Those centers cost the most in leagues that penalise lost faceoffs, and they are mostly the busiest centers. A fewest-first list would be topped by players who barely take draws. Click the column to flip it.

Projections by Category

Find projected leaders for specific stats

Scoring Projections

Goals, assists, and points leaders

Peripheral Stats

SOG, hits, blocks, ice time, giveaways and shifts

Faceoff & Physical

Faceoffs won, lost and FO%, PIM, takeaways and +/-

Goalie Projections

Starts, wins, losses, saves, SV% and GAA

Fantasy Points

Standard, DraftKings, and FanDuel

NHL Team Projections

Click a team to see rest of season player projections

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