NHL Projected Game-Winning Goals This Week

Game-winning goals count in some Yahoo and ESPN category leagues. There is no individual game-winning-goal skill: a player's share of his goals that turn out to be winners barely repeats from one season to the next (correlation about 0.09). So this projection is simply projected goals times how many of his team's goals are expected to be game-winners, which comes from the team's projected wins. The best goal scorers on teams projected to win lead the list (Sep 28-Oct 4 (Week 1)). (Sep 28-Oct 4 (Week 1))

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Fantasy Week 1: Sep 28 - Oct 4(Mon-Sun)

Sunday, October 4, 2026

Updated: 4:35 PM UTC(hourly)

5 games • 685 players

What counts as a GWG

the goal that puts the winning team one ahead of the loser's final total (the loser's final score + 1). Shootout winners are not game-winning goals.

The model

every win outside the shootout has exactly one game-winning goal. For each team we take its goalies' projected wins, remove the league's share of wins decided in a shootout, and divide by the team's projected goals. That gives the share of the team's goals expected to be game-winners. Each player's projected GWG is his projected goals times that share.

Why no player skill

across seasons a player's game-winners per goal correlate at only about 0.09 year to year: it is luck and team context, not a repeatable skill. Projections that rank "clutch" players higher would be chasing noise.

Track record

in our 2025-26 backtest the projection beat a naive current-season rate at every cutoff, and the top three deciles landed within 6% of the actual totals.

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Pro Tip: GWG follows goals and team wins. If you need the category, prioritise top goal scorers on strong teams rather than players with a hot GWG streak.

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

How the model works

Sorted by Projected Game Winning Goals(Sep 28-Oct 4 (Week 1))

637 players

Show

Skaters100 of 637

Player	Team	Pos	Rost%	GWG^† ↓	G	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPG^†	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHG^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	FOW^†	FOL^†	FO%^†	TK^†	GV^†	+/-^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	99.9%	0.32	2.10	2.50	4.50	9.80	1.80	0.90	1.60	0.67	0.92	1.59	0.03	0.01	0.04	28.12	23.33	54.7%	1.05	3.64	-0.31	65:00	68.53	37.80
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	99.1%	0.30	1.50	1.50	2.90	13.80	1.70	3.80	0.70	0.37	0.41	0.78	0.05	0.02	0.07	27.92	20.86	57.2%	1.05	2.83	-0.32	62:12	70.90	33.30
Dylan Guenther	UTA	RW	99.2%	0.28	1.70	1.40	3.10	10.40	2.90	1.00	0.80	0.52	0.44	0.96	0.01	0.00	0.02	1.00	1.20	-	0.83	2.61	0.51	51:54	64.66	29.60
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	99.9%	0.28	1.80	3.70	5.50	11.00	2.20	1.10	1.70	0.51	1.48	2.00	0.07	0.04	0.11	17.33	17.47	49.8%	1.10	3.78	-0.34	68:48	69.84	43.20
Sam Reinhart	FLA	RW	99.5%	0.27	1.40	1.20	2.60	7.40	3.40	1.90	0.70	0.51	0.48	0.98	0.06	0.02	0.07	4.73	6.02	44.0%	0.94	2.90	-0.30	63:18	72.52	23.90
Pavel Dorofeyev	NYR	RW	92.5%	0.27	1.30	1.10	2.40	10.20	1.30	2.00	1.30	0.41	0.35	0.76	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.12	-	1.06	3.17	-0.40	67:54	77.43	25.80
William Nylander	TOR	RW	99.1%	0.24	1.20	1.70	3.00	10.50	0.50	1.10	0.60	0.30	0.49	0.80	0.01	0.01	0.02	1.82	2.27	-	0.99	2.93	-0.30	58:30	67.20	26.70
David Pastrnak	BOS	RW	99.8%	0.23	1.00	1.90	3.00	10.30	3.10	1.00	1.70	0.24	0.53	0.77	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.24	0.28	-	1.06	3.70	-0.52	61:06	64.17	26.40
Morgan Geekie	BOS	LW	95.9%	0.23	1.00	0.90	1.80	5.90	4.90	1.10	1.00	0.24	0.23	0.47	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.79	4.21	-	0.85	2.55	-0.44	51:42	56.97	17.10
Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	98.3%	0.20	1.00	1.70	2.70	8.80	3.70	2.60	0.90	0.28	0.52	0.80	0.04	0.03	0.08	27.85	25.04	52.7%	1.41	4.29	-0.49	79:42	96.98	24.40
Kirill Marchenko	TOR	RW	98.4%	0.20	1.00	1.30	2.30	9.70	1.90	1.50	1.00	0.27	0.41	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.27	0.32	-	1.04	2.97	-0.28	56:24	61.86	24.90
Jack Eichel	LV	C	98.9%	0.20	1.60	2.90	4.50	12.20	1.40	1.70	0.50	0.41	1.08	1.49	0.06	0.04	0.11	23.19	25.10	48.0%	1.11	3.48	0.28	63:24	68.52	38.50
Nick Schmaltz	UTA	RW	93.8%	0.20	1.20	1.50	2.70	7.40	0.90	1.40	0.50	0.30	0.41	0.71	0.06	0.03	0.08	14.14	15.60	47.5%	1.09	2.92	0.58	57:42	70.52	23.50
Matthew Tkachuk	FLA	RW	99.7%	0.19	1.00	1.80	2.90	8.20	3.70	0.80	2.80	0.40	0.76	1.16	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.36	0.43	-	0.84	2.89	-0.24	54:54	61.31	23.80
Brady Tkachuk	FLA	LW	99.6%	0.19	1.00	1.10	2.10	10.70	9.00	1.10	3.60	0.34	0.42	0.76	0.01	0.00	0.01	7.66	6.95	52.4%	0.82	2.48	-0.25	53:24	72.66	22.90
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	100.0%	0.19	1.30	2.40	3.70	10.00	1.20	1.10	0.80	0.37	0.75	1.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	17.36	17.04	50.5%	0.69	2.67	1.01	44:36	47.49	30.60
Porter Martone	PHI	RW	90.2%	0.19	1.10	1.20	2.30	7.20	5.20	1.00	1.70	0.21	0.25	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.42	-	0.82	2.70	0.05	50:12	62.47	21.60
J.T. Miller	NYR	C	91.8%	0.18	0.90	1.80	2.70	6.90	7.30	2.50	2.60	0.22	0.50	0.72	0.03	0.03	0.06	31.63	22.90	58.0%	1.26	4.06	-0.47	76:48	100.10	22.70
Alexis Lafreniere	NYR	RW	81.8%	0.18	0.90	1.40	2.20	7.30	4.10	1.90	1.40	0.22	0.36	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.90	1.15	-	1.19	3.39	-0.42	69:18	84.86	19.90
John-Jason Peterka	BOS	RW	75.5%	0.18	0.80	0.80	1.70	6.30	0.70	0.60	0.80	0.14	0.15	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.43	-	0.79	2.75	-0.46	51:24	63.71	15.50
Jared McCann	SEA	LW	71.6%	0.18	1.20	1.80	2.90	7.00	2.00	1.50	0.80	0.34	0.55	0.89	0.01	0.00	0.01	1.76	2.09	-	0.81	2.57	0.18	50:42	65.34	23.30
Bobby McMann	SEA	LW	43.8%	0.18	1.20	0.90	2.10	7.50	6.00	1.40	1.60	0.17	0.13	0.30	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.39	0.39	-	0.71	2.15	0.18	45:30	57.97	19.90
John Tavares	TOR	C	96.1%	0.18	0.90	1.40	2.30	8.50	2.20	1.30	1.00	0.25	0.39	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	28.49	22.06	56.4%	0.92	2.76	-0.27	54:42	63.87	20.30
Sebastian Aho	CAR	C	98.8%	0.18	1.20	1.70	2.90	9.60	2.40	1.00	2.30	0.41	0.65	1.06	0.05	0.04	0.09	23.71	21.94	51.9%	0.99	3.20	-0.20	60:30	69.37	26.20
Tage Thompson	BUF	C	99.9%	0.18	1.30	1.10	2.40	7.70	2.50	0.80	0.70	0.37	0.37	0.74	0.01	0.00	0.01	9.58	11.20	46.1%	0.62	1.82	0.86	38:12	46.14	20.90
Cole Caufield	MON	LW	99.9%	0.17	0.90	0.60	1.50	5.30	1.50	0.50	0.40	0.25	0.18	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.23	0.27	-	0.57	1.67	-0.03	36:30	41.78	14.40
Owen Tippett	PHI	RW	78.0%	0.17	1.00	0.80	1.80	7.50	7.10	2.40	0.90	0.20	0.17	0.38	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.43	0.54	-	0.82	2.50	0.05	49:24	64.57	18.30
Tyson Foerster	PHI	LW	41.7%	0.17	1.00	0.80	1.70	5.90	3.50	2.60	1.60	0.20	0.17	0.37	0.04	0.02	0.05	0.08	0.09	-	0.82	2.33	0.05	51:18	67.35	16.80
Alex DeBrincat	DET	LW	99.7%	0.17	0.90	0.90	1.80	6.70	1.10	1.00	0.60	0.25	0.25	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.60	0.74	-	0.69	1.81	0.06	36:24	42.24	16.90
Clayton Keller	UTA	LW	99.9%	0.16	1.00	2.50	3.50	8.10	0.40	1.00	1.10	0.24	0.85	1.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54	0.66	-	0.92	3.04	0.57	57:18	68.29	27.50
Logan Cooley	UTA	C	93.9%	0.16	1.00	1.80	2.80	5.80	3.40	1.20	1.10	0.23	0.47	0.70	0.02	0.02	0.04	15.67	17.84	46.8%	0.95	2.78	0.55	53:12	66.65	21.80
Jordan Eberle	SEA	RW	30.3%	0.16	1.10	1.30	2.40	5.80	1.60	1.70	1.10	0.28	0.36	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.52	0.64	-	0.86	2.49	0.19	53:12	64.26	20.10
Eeli Tolvanen	NYR	LW	35.5%	0.16	0.80	0.70	1.40	5.60	8.60	4.10	1.30	0.15	0.15	0.30	0.03	0.01	0.04	0.16	0.20	-	0.92	2.84	-0.39	60:18	82.71	16.90
Will Cuylle	NYR	LW	63.6%	0.16	0.80	0.80	1.60	6.60	13.60	3.10	3.00	0.13	0.15	0.27	0.04	0.02	0.06	1.83	2.09	-	0.86	3.08	-0.41	62:00	84.97	18.50
Gabriel Perreault	NYR	RW	52.9%	0.16	0.80	1.10	1.90	5.30	1.90	2.00	0.80	0.11	0.18	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	0.40	-	0.96	3.00	-0.42	63:06	81.35	17.30
Kirill Kaprizov	MIN	LW	98.2%	0.16	1.00	1.00	2.00	7.70	1.30	0.70	0.60	0.31	0.32	0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.08	-	0.68	2.36	0.10	44:42	42.39	20.60
Cutter Gauthier	ANA	LW	98.2%	0.16	0.90	0.60	1.50	6.50	1.90	0.80	0.70	0.23	0.16	0.39	0.01	0.00	0.01	1.92	2.18	-	0.52	1.66	-0.05	31:30	38.24	15.00
Matthew Coronato	CGY	RW	40.0%	0.16	0.80	0.80	1.60	7.50	1.20	0.80	1.30	0.18	0.19	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.25	4.00	-	0.80	2.43	-0.78	51:06	63.47	14.90
Jason Robertson	DAL	LW	99.6%	0.16	0.70	1.00	1.80	7.60	1.20	0.80	0.60	0.25	0.40	0.65	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.09	-	0.60	2.01	-0.16	38:06	40.04	17.60
Wyatt Johnston	DAL	C	99.9%	0.16	0.70	0.90	1.60	6.10	1.20	1.40	0.60	0.24	0.31	0.55	0.01	0.01	0.02	10.29	10.58	49.3%	0.62	1.80	-0.17	39:48	43.58	15.50
Martin Necas	COL	RW	100.0%	0.16	1.10	1.80	2.90	6.20	1.70	0.70	0.60	0.32	0.58	0.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.61	0.64	-	0.65	2.20	0.90	40:12	42.42	22.60
Evan Bouchard	EDM	D	99.9%	0.15	1.00	2.40	3.40	9.10	1.50	3.70	1.30	0.39	1.09	1.48	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	-	1.09	3.94	-0.36	73:30	77.72	32.50
Vasily Podkolzin	EDM	LW	69.7%	0.15	1.00	0.90	1.80	5.90	10.30	1.90	2.20	0.22	0.21	0.43	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.93	1.28	-	0.69	2.00	-0.22	42:30	53.81	18.50
Sam Bennett	FLA	C	83.8%	0.15	0.80	1.10	1.80	7.10	5.70	1.50	2.80	0.24	0.35	0.59	0.01	0.01	0.02	19.04	20.65	48.0%	0.86	2.69	-0.27	53:30	64.44	16.80
Travis Konecny	PHI	RW	91.6%	0.15	0.90	1.70	2.60	5.90	4.80	1.70	2.30	0.18	0.40	0.58	0.02	0.02	0.04	1.13	1.41	-	0.88	3.09	0.06	58:42	73.34	19.70
Matvei Michkov	PHI	RW	85.6%	0.15	0.90	1.30	2.20	5.90	1.30	1.10	2.20	0.19	0.29	0.48	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.40	0.47	-	0.78	2.56	0.04	46:42	60.78	16.80
Tyler Bertuzzi	CHI	LW	62.0%	0.15	0.90	0.70	1.70	4.80	1.80	0.90	1.20	0.25	0.20	0.45	0.01	0.00	0.01	1.53	1.82	-	0.80	2.62	-0.68	51:48	56.68	13.30
Anton Frondell	CHI	C	71.6%	0.15	0.90	1.10	2.00	5.90	1.60	1.80	0.60	0.27	0.35	0.62	0.01	0.01	0.02	10.61	14.42	42.4%	0.77	2.22	-0.60	47:06	54.02	17.80
Macklin Celebrini	SJ	C	99.8%	0.15	1.10	1.80	2.90	7.00	1.40	1.70	1.20	0.29	0.60	0.89	0.02	0.01	0.03	14.84	15.51	48.9%	0.75	2.42	0.08	41:30	42.06	23.20
Jack Hughes	NJ	C	99.8%	0.15	0.90	1.30	2.10	9.20	0.20	0.90	0.30	0.22	0.40	0.62	0.01	0.01	0.02	6.35	9.59	39.8%	0.75	2.50	-0.18	42:30	43.97	21.70
Matthew Beniers	SEA	C	49.6%	0.15	1.00	1.60	2.60	5.20	1.50	2.90	0.80	0.23	0.38	0.61	0.02	0.02	0.04	19.31	20.77	48.2%	0.92	2.81	0.21	56:36	66.96	20.80
Mark Stone	LV	RW	93.4%	0.15	1.20	2.20	3.30	7.10	2.00	1.90	0.50	0.34	0.73	1.07	0.04	0.03	0.07	0.30	0.37	-	0.99	2.92	0.26	58:06	65.08	28.40
Tomas Hertl	LV	C	83.6%	0.15	1.20	1.10	2.30	8.90	4.50	1.80	0.90	0.41	0.37	0.78	0.01	0.00	0.01	24.08	18.83	56.1%	0.77	2.31	0.21	50:18	57.14	22.60
Anders Lee	UTA	LW	28.5%	0.15	0.90	0.60	1.50	7.10	4.60	1.10	1.20	0.16	0.11	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.76	1.94	-	0.71	2.34	0.52	48:42	60.99	15.80
Bo Horvat	NYI	C	90.2%	0.15	0.90	0.80	1.70	6.50	1.90	1.30	0.70	0.28	0.27	0.54	0.04	0.02	0.06	19.18	15.50	55.3%	0.63	2.09	0.51	41:06	46.20	16.80
Leo Carlsson	ANA	C	94.2%	0.14	0.80	0.90	1.70	4.90	0.50	1.10	0.60	0.21	0.27	0.48	0.02	0.01	0.03	11.19	13.54	45.3%	0.61	1.76	-0.05	35:24	41.89	14.80
Artemi Panarin	LA	LW	97.0%	0.14	0.80	1.20	2.00	6.10	0.30	0.30	0.40	0.23	0.40	0.63	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.02	-	0.64	2.15	0.11	40:42	44.53	16.00
Adrian Kempe	LA	RW	96.7%	0.14	0.80	0.80	1.60	6.30	2.90	0.70	1.30	0.21	0.23	0.45	0.01	0.01	0.02	1.24	1.65	-	0.60	1.85	0.11	38:48	44.50	16.00
Nikita Kucherov	TB	RW	99.9%	0.14	0.80	1.60	2.30	6.30	1.00	0.80	1.10	0.29	0.71	1.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.04	-	0.68	2.47	0.36	42:06	44.24	20.50
Elias Lindholm	BOS	C	43.3%	0.14	0.60	0.90	1.40	4.90	2.40	2.20	0.80	0.11	0.20	0.31	0.02	0.01	0.03	27.93	23.03	54.8%	0.83	2.62	-0.48	54:06	66.46	14.40
Pavel Zacha	BOS	C	77.8%	0.14	0.60	0.90	1.50	4.70	2.60	1.00	0.60	0.13	0.21	0.35	0.02	0.01	0.03	19.71	17.53	52.9%	0.83	2.62	-0.47	54:00	64.47	13.30
Mitch Marner	LV	RW	98.8%	0.14	1.10	2.70	3.80	7.20	1.30	1.60	0.60	0.29	0.90	1.18	0.05	0.05	0.10	4.48	6.00	42.7%	1.15	3.40	0.28	62:42	68.45	29.20
Trevor Zegras	PHI	LW	85.7%	0.13	0.80	1.50	2.40	5.50	1.90	1.30	2.10	0.18	0.38	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.90	8.40	41.3%	0.85	2.77	0.05	54:12	63.70	18.20
Filip Forsberg	NSH	LW	99.1%	0.13	0.60	0.70	1.40	5.60	2.70	0.90	0.90	0.17	0.22	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.31	0.38	-	0.71	2.03	-0.11	37:48	43.78	13.20
Steven Stamkos	NSH	C	93.6%	0.13	0.60	0.60	1.20	4.70	1.80	0.80	1.10	0.19	0.19	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	8.21	6.90	54.3%	0.57	1.73	-0.10	36:06	41.96	10.70
Andrei Svechnikov	CAR	LW	97.0%	0.13	0.90	1.40	2.40	9.80	7.20	0.90	3.00	0.33	0.57	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.35	0.42	-	0.86	2.69	-0.16	52:00	61.63	22.70
Carter Verhaeghe	FLA	LW	72.1%	0.13	0.70	1.00	1.80	6.70	2.50	0.90	1.10	0.17	0.25	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.76	2.10	-	0.90	2.58	-0.28	54:12	65.17	15.80
Vincent Trocheck	UTA	C	88.5%	0.13	0.80	1.40	2.20	6.20	9.40	1.90	1.50	0.17	0.36	0.53	0.05	0.03	0.08	29.27	22.15	56.9%	1.04	3.20	0.65	62:42	74.44	18.90
Artturi Lehkonen	COL	LW	57.0%	0.13	0.90	0.80	1.70	4.70	1.20	1.20	0.50	0.18	0.16	0.34	0.05	0.02	0.07	0.23	0.29	-	0.58	1.80	0.95	39:00	47.46	16.00
Adam Fantilli	CLB	C	92.0%	0.13	0.80	0.90	1.80	4.40	3.00	1.50	0.80	0.17	0.22	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.01	13.13	13.34	49.6%	0.61	1.86	0.02	36:30	40.46	14.80
Brayden Point	TB	C	95.2%	0.12	0.70	0.80	1.50	4.80	0.50	1.00	0.50	0.26	0.31	0.57	0.01	0.00	0.01	10.28	11.53	47.1%	0.58	1.77	0.33	38:24	42.78	14.30
Brandon Hagel	TB	LW	99.1%	0.12	0.70	1.00	1.70	5.90	1.50	1.10	1.50	0.19	0.30	0.48	0.04	0.02	0.06	0.70	0.89	-	0.75	2.06	0.39	41:12	47.71	17.00
Joel Farabee	CGY	LW	11.5%	0.12	0.60	0.50	1.10	5.30	2.20	1.60	1.80	0.07	0.07	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.07	0.89	1.07	-	0.80	2.32	-0.79	47:48	62.81	10.60
Morgan Frost	CGY	C	22.8%	0.12	0.60	0.70	1.20	5.70	2.60	1.50	1.00	0.14	0.18	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	21.11	17.28	55.0%	0.79	2.26	-0.71	46:42	61.20	11.50
Matvei Gridin	CGY	RW	39.6%	0.12	0.60	1.00	1.60	6.20	1.00	1.50	0.50	0.11	0.21	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59	0.73	-	0.71	2.30	-0.71	45:18	58.03	12.80
Matthew Samoskevich	SEA	LW	25.0%	0.12	0.80	0.90	1.60	6.50	5.30	1.60	1.20	0.10	0.12	0.22	0.02	0.01	0.02	1.46	1.73	-	0.67	2.04	0.16	41:36	52.42	15.80
Jack Roslovic	TOR	RW	33.6%	0.12	0.60	0.80	1.40	6.30	1.10	1.00	0.50	0.11	0.17	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	6.03	5.43	52.6%	0.67	2.19	-0.23	43:48	53.02	13.20
Gavin McKenna	TOR	LW	94.3%	0.12	0.60	1.30	2.00	7.00	0.50	0.90	1.10	0.18	0.40	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.16	0.19	-	0.74	2.25	-0.21	44:18	50.47	16.90
Alex Bump	PHI	LW	15.3%	0.12	0.70	0.60	1.30	4.10	3.30	1.40	0.70	0.11	0.10	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.17	0.20	-	0.68	1.94	0.04	38:42	50.84	11.90
Nikolaj Ehlers	CAR	LW	92.9%	0.12	0.80	1.40	2.20	9.60	1.20	1.10	0.70	0.28	0.56	0.85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.46	0.57	-	0.79	2.54	-0.16	49:48	58.23	22.50
Jackson Blake	CAR	RW	68.5%	0.12	0.80	1.20	2.00	7.90	0.60	1.60	1.40	0.30	0.51	0.82	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.23	0.29	-	0.83	2.54	-0.14	47:24	53.40	19.60
Dylan Holloway	STL	LW	95.1%	0.12	0.60	0.80	1.40	5.10	3.70	1.30	0.70	0.15	0.21	0.35	0.01	0.00	0.01	1.06	1.25	-	0.52	1.58	-0.27	33:06	39.84	14.30
Jimmy Snuggerud	STL	RW	79.6%	0.12	0.60	0.70	1.30	5.00	1.70	1.10	0.60	0.14	0.17	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.23	-	0.56	1.70	-0.27	33:30	41.45	13.30
Frank Nazar	CHI	C	54.0%	0.12	0.70	1.10	1.80	5.20	1.40	1.80	1.00	0.17	0.29	0.46	0.04	0.02	0.06	16.66	18.25	47.7%	0.90	2.68	-0.70	51:54	62.48	14.10
Roman Kantserov	CHI	RW	57.5%	0.12	0.70	0.80	1.60	4.40	1.50	0.80	1.20	0.19	0.23	0.42	0.02	0.01	0.03	13.12	16.55	44.2%	0.76	2.15	-0.60	45:36	54.84	13.00
Alex Tuch	WAS	RW	93.9%	0.12	0.70	0.60	1.30	3.80	2.00	2.60	1.40	0.09	0.09	0.18	0.06	0.03	0.08	1.52	1.90	-	0.72	1.81	0.49	38:18	50.41	13.60
Timo Meier	NJ	LW	81.8%	0.12	0.70	0.50	1.20	8.00	2.80	1.30	0.70	0.13	0.10	0.23	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.24	1.50	-	0.63	1.86	-0.16	36:36	42.54	14.80
Nico Hischier	NJ	C	97.3%	0.12	0.70	0.80	1.50	6.20	1.00	1.40	0.40	0.19	0.24	0.44	0.04	0.02	0.06	24.53	19.90	55.2%	0.65	1.91	-0.17	41:12	47.89	15.40
Brock Nelson	COL	C	87.7%	0.12	0.80	0.90	1.70	4.90	0.70	1.50	0.60	0.22	0.29	0.51	0.06	0.03	0.09	16.86	16.81	50.1%	0.60	1.76	0.88	38:06	46.66	15.70
Lawson Crouse	UTA	RW	35.8%	0.11	0.70	0.90	1.60	5.30	9.20	1.50	1.30	0.08	0.12	0.20	0.07	0.04	0.12	1.14	1.44	-	0.73	2.13	0.52	46:00	64.98	15.40
Michael Carcone	UTA	RW	5.0%	0.11	0.70	0.70	1.30	5.40	6.30	0.50	1.00	0.10	0.11	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.52	0.62	-	0.59	1.82	0.40	37:06	52.14	12.50
Fraser Minten	BOS	C	47.3%	0.11	0.50	0.60	1.10	4.40	5.70	1.50	0.50	0.05	0.06	0.11	0.04	0.02	0.05	14.39	14.74	49.4%	0.78	2.14	-0.43	45:24	58.01	12.50
James Hagens	BOS	C	50.5%	0.11	0.50	0.70	1.20	5.00	1.70	0.90	0.70	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.93	1.92	-	0.79	2.33	-0.46	46:30	56.54	11.50
Anton Lundell	FLA	C	45.5%	0.11	0.60	1.00	1.60	6.00	4.00	1.70	1.30	0.18	0.35	0.53	0.04	0.03	0.07	23.60	21.59	52.2%	0.79	2.60	-0.26	52:30	66.68	16.80
Mikko Rantanen	DAL	RW	98.7%	0.11	0.50	1.20	1.80	5.10	1.20	1.00	1.40	0.16	0.48	0.65	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.73	1.94	-	0.73	2.17	-0.18	42:18	43.92	15.00
Roope Hintz	DAL	C	84.1%	0.11	0.50	0.80	1.30	4.90	1.90	0.80	0.50	0.15	0.28	0.43	0.01	0.01	0.01	14.12	11.59	54.9%	0.50	1.67	-0.15	34:12	42.54	13.10
Nick Suzuki	MON	C	100.0%	0.11	0.60	1.20	1.80	3.80	2.00	1.20	0.50	0.15	0.39	0.54	0.01	0.01	0.02	17.44	16.89	50.8%	0.70	2.04	-0.03	41:18	44.42	15.60
Rickard Rakell	PIT	LW	82.7%	0.11	0.80	0.90	1.80	6.10	2.00	1.30	0.30	0.22	0.28	0.50	0.03	0.01	0.04	2.35	3.26	-	0.63	1.81	0.42	38:18	44.28	16.20
Sidney Crosby	PIT	C	99.9%	0.11	0.80	1.60	2.40	6.00	1.50	0.80	0.80	0.20	0.44	0.65	0.00	0.00	0.00	23.40	19.41	54.7%	0.65	1.97	0.45	39:48	45.75	18.10
Evgeni Malkin	PIT	C	82.4%	0.11	0.80	1.40	2.20	5.40	0.60	0.70	1.40	0.21	0.43	0.64	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.26	5.84	47.4%	0.63	1.94	0.39	35:30	39.95	17.20

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

GWG starts with goals

Game-winning goals are a slice of a player's goals. Check the goal projections first.

Goals Projections

Team wins drive the share

Teams projected to win more have more game-winning goals to hand out. Goalie win projections show which teams are favoured.

Goalie Win Projections

Power-play goals

Another goal-based category where the role, not a hot streak, decides who scores.

Power-Play Goals

Related Projections

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Frequently Asked Questions

Each player's projected goals (from LineupExperts) times his team's expected game-winners per goal: the team's projected non-shootout wins divided by its projected goals.

Not measurably. The share of a player's goals that are game-winners correlates at about 0.09 from one season to the next, so we do not reward past GWG totals. Goals and team wins drive the projection.

A team that wins less has fewer game-winning goals to hand out, so each of its goals is less likely to be the winner.

No. The NHL does not credit a game-winning goal for a shootout win, and the projection removes the league's share of shootout-decided wins.