NHL Projected Shorthanded Goals This Week

Shorthanded goals are rare: about 3% of all goals. These projections estimate each player's share of his projected goals that come while killing a penalty. The ranking is driven mostly by penalty-kill ice time times a mostly league-level scoring rate, so treat it as a guide to who is on the ice shorthanded, not a prediction of who will score (Oct 12-18 (Week 3)). (Oct 12-18 (Week 3))

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Updated 7:27 PM ET(hourly)

2 games • 691 players

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

Shorthanded scoring is rare and streaky: even the leaders score only a few a season. These projections are driven mostly by penalty-kill ice time, with each team’s total held to the league’s shorthanded share of its projected goals and assists. How the model works

Sorted by Projected Short Handed Goals(Oct 12-18 (Week 3))

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Player	Team	Pos	Rost%	SHG^† ↓	G	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPG^†	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	GWG^†	FOW^†	FOL^†	FO%^†	TK^†	GV^†	+/-^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
Tim Stutzle	OTT	C	99.7%	0.11	1.80	2.80	4.60	9.10	6.50	2.40	1.50	0.57	1.06	1.63	0.07	0.18	0.45	17.78	16.01	52.6%	1.38	4.34	0.07	83:00	104.86	37.20
Matthew Boldy	MIN	RW	100.0%	0.09	1.70	1.90	3.60	13.60	3.40	3.60	1.90	0.46	0.59	1.06	0.04	0.13	0.35	3.03	3.70	-	1.60	4.13	-0.48	84:00	82.93	38.10
Sam Reinhart	FLA	RW	97.3%	0.08	2.40	1.60	4.00	11.40	4.40	2.10	0.80	0.97	0.65	1.62	0.02	0.11	0.51	7.92	9.49	45.5%	1.21	3.87	0.02	84:00	94.23	36.40
Brandon Hagel	TBL	LW	99.3%	0.08	1.50	1.80	3.30	9.80	2.20	1.90	2.10	0.44	0.60	1.04	0.05	0.13	0.15	0.95	1.17	-	1.17	2.98	0.35	62:00	70.88	30.00
Alex Tuch	WSH	RW	93.8%	0.08	1.10	1.10	2.20	6.80	2.80	3.60	1.50	0.18	0.19	0.37	0.04	0.12	0.10	2.31	2.79	-	1.22	2.75	0.66	57:48	73.80	22.70
Jack Eichel	VGK	C	99.9%	0.07	1.80	3.10	4.90	14.60	1.40	2.60	0.80	0.53	1.37	1.90	0.08	0.15	0.48	30.35	33.76	47.3%	1.47	4.74	-0.03	85:00	89.14	45.10
Blake Coleman	MIN	RW	41.3%	0.07	0.90	1.00	1.90	8.90	8.20	2.90	3.30	0.13	0.15	0.28	0.03	0.10	0.18	1.11	1.39	-	1.14	3.74	-0.44	68:36	89.10	21.00
Tom Wilson	WSH	RW	94.2%	0.07	1.10	1.20	2.30	5.80	8.00	2.90	3.40	0.24	0.27	0.51	0.04	0.11	0.10	0.55	0.67	-	0.86	2.97	0.64	57:36	69.25	21.70
Pius Suter	STL	C	4.1%	0.07	0.60	0.50	1.10	4.10	1.80	1.00	0.50	0.04	0.04	0.07	0.02	0.09	0.09	13.74	14.90	48.0%	0.71	2.30	0.16	48:30	65.38	11.50
Shane Pinto	OTT	C	43.7%	0.07	1.10	1.70	2.90	7.80	4.90	2.70	2.10	0.27	0.48	0.75	0.06	0.12	0.27	24.02	23.22	50.8%	1.29	3.50	0.07	75:24	103.61	25.60
Ryan O'Reilly	NSH	C	81.0%	0.06	0.90	1.60	2.50	5.20	0.70	2.60	1.00	0.26	0.52	0.78	0.05	0.12	0.13	27.36	22.79	54.6%	1.08	2.64	-0.10	60:18	71.39	19.20
Nico Hischier	NJD	C	95.3%	0.06	1.40	1.70	3.10	10.10	2.40	3.00	1.00	0.43	0.53	0.96	0.04	0.11	0.16	47.93	39.39	54.9%	1.27	3.69	-0.12	81:54	93.72	29.70
Aliaksei Protas	WSH	LW	52.3%	0.06	0.90	1.10	2.00	5.50	1.10	1.80	0.70	0.03	0.04	0.06	0.04	0.10	0.08	1.13	1.29	-	0.83	2.60	0.64	51:24	63.83	17.70
Anton Lundell	FLA	C	42.0%	0.06	0.90	1.40	2.20	9.30	5.30	1.90	1.80	0.26	0.45	0.71	0.04	0.11	0.19	31.15	29.17	51.6%	1.00	3.66	0.02	70:42	89.99	22.40
Fraser Minten	BOS	C	45.7%	0.06	1.00	0.90	1.80	5.30	4.40	1.40	0.60	0.13	0.12	0.25	0.03	0.09	0.10	14.38	15.52	48.1%	0.81	2.09	0.51	45:54	58.05	17.40
Mark Jankowski	CAR	C	9.0%	0.06	1.00	0.40	1.50	3.80	2.00	1.60	0.50	0.13	0.06	0.19	0.01	0.08	0.20	16.11	16.67	49.1%	0.54	1.91	-0.01	37:30	52.40	13.30
Justin Danforth	BUF	C	0.0%	0.06	0.50	0.60	1.20	4.90	6.20	2.90	1.20	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.10	0.09	19.85	21.24	48.3%	0.91	2.68	0.29	56:12	88.02	12.20
Bryan Rust	PIT	RW	82.9%	0.06	1.10	1.20	2.20	7.10	1.60	2.30	0.90	0.22	0.28	0.50	0.03	0.09	0.10	0.26	0.33	-	0.88	2.88	0.34	59:30	70.67	19.90
Ryan McLeod	BUF	C	21.6%	0.06	0.70	1.20	1.90	4.10	0.80	1.60	0.80	0.12	0.24	0.35	0.04	0.10	0.13	28.77	29.02	49.8%	1.08	3.54	0.30	65:24	90.77	13.60
Frederick Gaudreau	SEA	C	7.0%	0.06	0.60	0.50	1.10	3.10	1.50	2.40	0.30	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.08	0.13	15.62	17.70	46.9%	0.78	2.14	0.28	47:12	63.66	11.40
Will Cuylle	NYR	LW	64.5%	0.06	1.00	0.90	1.90	6.10	12.10	1.80	1.70	0.16	0.18	0.33	0.02	0.08	0.08	2.01	2.20	-	0.62	2.23	1.09	47:12	64.80	18.40
Dylan Larkin	DET	C	95.1%	0.06	1.40	1.60	2.90	9.70	1.80	1.40	1.60	0.40	0.50	0.91	0.03	0.09	0.17	31.59	28.27	52.8%	0.94	3.24	0.06	60:36	72.00	25.90
Lawson Crouse	UTA	RW	32.8%	0.06	0.70	0.60	1.30	5.40	8.30	1.80	1.60	0.06	0.06	0.12	0.03	0.09	0.07	1.00	1.28	-	0.72	2.13	-0.02	46:06	65.82	14.60
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	99.1%	0.06	1.90	2.10	4.00	11.20	2.00	3.70	0.70	0.52	0.63	1.15	0.03	0.09	0.35	28.39	21.24	57.2%	1.12	2.89	-0.15	63:24	69.88	37.40
Sebastian Aho	CAR	C	99.7%	0.06	1.30	2.30	3.60	8.70	2.20	1.20	2.00	0.45	0.87	1.32	0.07	0.12	0.25	24.12	22.11	52.2%	0.90	3.27	-0.02	60:12	69.05	29.80
Nick Paul	TOR	C	8.1%	0.06	0.60	0.70	1.30	3.80	4.60	2.00	1.50	0.09	0.12	0.20	0.03	0.09	0.11	15.49	16.06	49.1%	0.71	2.09	-0.12	46:24	59.42	10.80
Anthony Cirelli	TBL	C	46.0%	0.06	0.80	1.00	1.80	5.70	2.20	2.20	1.60	0.13	0.18	0.31	0.04	0.10	0.08	23.67	24.85	48.8%	0.87	2.66	0.34	54:12	70.43	18.20
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	99.7%	0.06	1.50	3.60	5.10	8.80	1.90	1.30	1.50	0.41	1.48	1.89	0.05	0.10	0.25	17.41	17.81	49.4%	1.12	3.73	-0.40	69:06	71.78	39.50
Mark Stone	VGK	RW	94.7%	0.06	1.30	2.60	3.90	8.90	2.70	3.10	1.00	0.41	1.11	1.52	0.04	0.10	0.34	0.38	0.48	-	1.27	3.78	-0.03	77:30	85.55	34.80
Tye Kartye	NYR	LW	8.1%	0.06	0.60	0.80	1.40	3.40	8.40	1.70	1.70	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.09	0.05	0.32	0.40	-	0.55	1.60	0.92	36:18	52.13	11.60
Josh Anderson	MTL	RW	11.1%	0.05	0.60	0.40	1.00	3.80	6.10	1.40	3.70	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.07	0.09	0.66	0.69	-	0.64	1.99	0.43	42:42	56.96	10.30
William Karlsson	VGK	C	19.3%	0.05	1.00	1.00	2.00	8.30	1.00	2.90	0.50	0.13	0.14	0.28	0.03	0.08	0.26	32.04	23.07	58.1%	1.09	3.04	-0.03	68:36	82.15	22.10
Collin Graf	SJS	LW	24.5%	0.05	0.60	0.60	1.20	4.40	3.10	1.60	0.60	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.08	0.09	0.89	1.22	-	0.79	2.14	-0.64	48:12	58.92	11.20
Brock Nelson	COL	C	86.6%	0.05	0.90	0.90	1.80	6.30	1.30	2.30	1.00	0.19	0.22	0.41	0.03	0.08	0.16	25.59	25.39	50.2%	0.88	2.63	0.47	56:48	70.53	18.70
Kyle Connor	WPG	LW	98.9%	0.05	1.60	1.70	3.30	10.30	1.00	1.00	0.50	0.40	0.45	0.85	0.03	0.08	0.38	0.05	0.06	-	0.98	2.95	0.12	63:06	67.18	29.20
Connor Dewar	PIT	LW	3.4%	0.05	0.40	0.50	0.90	4.00	4.80	1.60	0.90	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.09	0.04	2.12	2.29	-	0.61	1.80	0.25	39:18	53.58	10.10
Bo Horvat	NYI	C	92.4%	0.05	1.40	1.20	2.60	10.10	3.20	1.40	1.20	0.43	0.37	0.79	0.03	0.09	0.16	28.48	22.51	55.9%	0.92	3.12	-0.04	61:06	69.85	25.90
Jake Evans	MTL	C	4.9%	0.05	0.40	0.60	1.00	3.00	4.10	2.30	0.90	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.09	0.06	21.25	18.19	53.9%	0.79	2.15	0.46	46:06	59.46	9.40
Alexander Kerfoot	NSH	LW	3.2%	0.05	0.50	0.80	1.20	2.90	2.20	2.40	0.90	0.06	0.12	0.18	0.03	0.08	0.07	8.07	7.80	50.8%	0.78	2.21	-0.08	44:36	63.35	10.40
Brett Howden	VGK	LW	14.6%	0.05	1.00	1.00	2.10	6.30	5.50	1.90	2.10	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.03	0.08	0.26	13.42	12.96	50.9%	0.88	2.97	-0.03	60:30	79.02	19.50
Alex Newhook	MTL	LW	24.6%	0.05	0.70	0.80	1.50	4.10	3.70	1.40	1.00	0.10	0.13	0.23	0.03	0.08	0.10	11.50	11.36	50.3%	0.68	2.18	0.43	46:12	59.17	12.40
Dawson Mercer	NJD	RW	21.7%	0.05	0.70	1.00	1.70	7.80	1.50	2.20	1.10	0.06	0.09	0.15	0.03	0.08	0.08	5.23	6.59	-	1.19	3.32	-0.12	70:42	85.52	17.10
Nick Schmaltz	UTA	RW	97.1%	0.05	1.30	1.50	2.80	8.00	1.30	1.60	0.70	0.47	0.49	0.97	0.03	0.07	0.13	13.64	15.41	47.0%	1.12	2.83	-0.03	57:24	70.67	24.30
Arttu Hyry	DAL	C	4.0%	0.05	0.20	0.20	0.50	3.50	4.90	1.20	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.07	0.03	14.78	11.76	55.7%	0.54	1.68	0.06	35:48	47.90	6.20
Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	98.2%	0.05	0.90	2.00	2.80	7.10	3.90	2.30	0.60	0.26	0.64	0.90	0.04	0.08	0.07	21.64	18.97	53.3%	1.04	3.28	1.28	60:48	73.18	23.20
Christian Dvorak	PHI	C	13.4%	0.05	0.70	0.80	1.50	4.90	2.30	1.90	0.90	0.10	0.13	0.23	0.03	0.07	0.09	21.91	19.02	53.5%	0.83	2.31	-0.47	50:36	66.21	13.30
Frank Nazar	CHI	C	49.4%	0.05	0.80	1.10	1.90	6.60	1.70	1.90	1.20	0.17	0.27	0.44	0.03	0.08	0.08	16.84	18.54	47.6%	0.90	2.85	-0.68	52:24	63.30	15.70
Ben Meyers	SEA	C	5.8%	0.05	0.30	0.70	1.00	2.70	3.50	1.00	0.90	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.08	0.06	8.46	8.15	50.9%	0.54	1.63	0.20	34:48	52.10	7.30
Artturi Lehkonen	COL	LW	75.9%	0.04	0.90	0.80	1.80	5.60	1.90	1.70	0.80	0.17	0.14	0.31	0.02	0.07	0.16	0.33	0.42	-	0.89	2.77	0.49	58:12	71.72	19.40
Boone Jenner	WSH	C	23.1%	0.04	0.70	0.80	1.50	6.10	5.90	3.20	1.40	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.03	0.07	0.06	12.71	10.58	54.6%	0.76	2.45	0.61	49:36	63.62	16.90
Colton Sissons	TOR	C	3.3%	0.04	0.30	0.20	0.50	3.20	5.40	1.90	0.80	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.06	0.06	15.30	12.55	54.9%	0.69	1.99	-0.12	42:12	59.22	6.90
Ilya Mikheyev	TBL	RW	7.5%	0.04	0.60	0.60	1.20	4.90	1.70	0.80	0.50	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.07	0.06	0.14	0.18	-	0.77	2.37	0.33	48:06	60.94	11.30
Tyson Foerster	PHI	LW	35.9%	0.04	0.80	0.60	1.40	6.90	3.90	2.20	1.80	0.19	0.15	0.34	0.01	0.06	0.10	0.06	0.07	-	0.76	2.26	-0.44	51:36	67.23	14.10
Simon Holmstrom	NYI	RW	14.8%	0.04	0.70	0.80	1.50	4.30	0.80	1.70	0.40	0.10	0.13	0.23	0.04	0.08	0.08	0.21	0.26	-	0.83	2.38	-0.03	49:42	65.49	13.30
Logan Stankoven	CAR	C	80.3%	0.04	1.00	0.90	1.90	6.80	1.60	1.30	0.60	0.19	0.18	0.36	0.02	0.06	0.20	13.19	16.04	45.1%	0.77	2.22	-0.02	48:00	57.60	19.10
Teuvo Teravainen	CHI	LW	11.0%	0.04	0.50	1.00	1.50	3.60	0.70	1.30	0.30	0.06	0.15	0.22	0.04	0.08	0.05	2.06	2.36	-	0.79	2.58	-0.70	51:00	65.11	11.00
Vincent Trocheck	UTA	C	84.8%	0.04	0.90	1.00	1.80	6.10	8.80	2.00	2.10	0.17	0.22	0.39	0.02	0.06	0.09	27.69	21.08	56.8%	0.92	3.05	-0.03	59:54	75.08	16.60
Joel Eriksson Ek	MIN	C	77.8%	0.04	1.00	1.40	2.40	11.50	5.60	2.50	1.40	0.26	0.42	0.68	0.03	0.07	0.20	38.85	39.51	49.6%	1.24	3.48	-0.46	78:42	82.01	29.40
Cole Koepke	WPG	LW	0.0%	0.04	0.30	0.30	0.60	3.60	7.60	1.00	0.60	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.07	0.07	0.05	0.06	-	0.52	1.60	0.07	32:30	46.26	7.20
Ty Dellandrea	SJS	C	0.1%	0.04	0.20	0.40	0.60	3.10	6.80	1.90	1.70	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.08	0.03	14.02	13.73	50.5%	0.61	1.81	-0.51	38:06	49.54	5.10
Alex Formenton	EDM	LW	8.9%	0.04	0.50	0.40	0.90	4.90	3.90	1.50	2.00	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.07	0.08	0.27	0.33	-	0.66	2.02	-0.30	44:36	68.58	10.60
Marat Khusnutdinov	BOS	LW	10.5%	0.04	0.50	0.60	1.10	2.90	1.90	1.30	0.40	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.02	0.06	0.05	3.30	3.58	-	0.64	1.99	0.47	40:24	52.49	10.60
Emil Heineman	NYI	LW	29.3%	0.04	0.70	0.50	1.20	6.30	8.90	1.60	0.80	0.08	0.06	0.13	0.01	0.05	0.08	0.33	0.42	-	0.65	1.94	-0.03	43:00	54.98	13.40
Cole Smith	CHI	LW	0.1%	0.04	0.30	0.30	0.70	3.00	7.60	0.80	2.10	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.06	0.03	0.44	0.56	-	0.65	1.85	-0.61	41:00	57.28	6.40
Michael McCarron	MIN	C	10.7%	0.04	0.30	0.60	0.90	5.10	9.30	4.30	3.60	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.08	0.06	26.43	24.37	52.0%	0.92	2.61	-0.39	56:12	71.90	12.40
Teddy Blueger	TOR	C	3.2%	0.04	0.20	0.50	0.70	2.80	3.70	1.50	1.50	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.08	0.04	15.20	15.74	49.1%	0.69	2.07	-0.12	41:42	56.50	6.90
Mitch Marner	VGK	RW	98.9%	0.04	1.20	2.90	4.10	9.20	1.50	2.60	0.90	0.37	1.10	1.48	0.05	0.09	0.32	5.03	6.74	-	1.67	4.91	-0.03	82:42	89.23	32.60
Pavel Buchnevich	STL	RW	31.5%	0.04	0.60	1.00	1.60	5.00	1.10	1.20	0.70	0.11	0.24	0.35	0.04	0.08	0.09	3.40	4.80	-	0.88	2.72	0.16	55:24	70.03	14.60
Eetu Luostarinen	FLA	LW	14.3%	0.04	0.60	0.80	1.40	5.50	7.20	3.00	2.10	0.12	0.16	0.28	0.03	0.06	0.13	4.72	5.30	-	0.95	3.08	0.02	64:00	84.62	16.00
Jack Drury	NSH	C	4.8%	0.04	0.30	0.60	1.00	3.80	1.90	2.50	1.30	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.07	0.04	18.72	15.51	54.7%	0.73	1.85	-0.08	41:30	55.75	11.10
Tim Washe	ANA	C	8.5%	0.04	0.20	0.20	0.40	2.00	5.60	1.70	0.80	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.06	0.03	12.60	11.00	53.4%	0.39	1.16	-0.07	25:30	36.81	4.60
Benjamin Kindel	PIT	RW	49.9%	0.04	0.70	0.70	1.40	5.80	1.10	1.80	0.50	0.22	0.23	0.45	0.02	0.06	0.07	11.49	13.45	46.1%	0.79	2.50	0.24	46:06	55.19	13.80
Parker Kelly	COL	LW	17.7%	0.04	0.40	0.60	1.00	3.30	6.10	2.50	1.10	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.07	0.07	4.60	5.73	44.5%	0.63	1.99	0.35	38:06	54.77	10.80
Connor Brown	NJD	RW	5.8%	0.04	0.50	0.80	1.20	3.80	0.80	1.20	0.50	0.08	0.15	0.23	0.03	0.07	0.06	0.33	0.41	-	0.50	1.48	-0.05	30:42	36.01	11.20
Joel Armia	LAK	RW	3.3%	0.04	0.40	0.30	0.60	2.80	2.50	1.10	0.60	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.10	0.93	1.21	-	0.50	1.38	-0.11	28:06	38.46	6.70
Blake Lizotte	PIT	C	0.2%	0.04	0.30	0.80	1.10	3.00	2.70	1.70	1.40	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.09	0.03	13.00	14.08	48.0%	0.59	2.00	0.25	39:30	55.58	9.50
Joel Farabee	CGY	LW	11.4%	0.04	0.50	0.70	1.20	5.30	1.60	1.80	1.30	0.08	0.15	0.23	0.02	0.06	0.05	1.07	1.33	-	0.83	2.39	-1.55	48:42	62.98	11.10
Sam Steel	DAL	C	5.8%	0.04	0.40	0.80	1.20	3.70	2.60	1.20	0.80	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.06	0.06	5.63	5.42	51.0%	0.68	2.18	0.07	45:24	57.05	9.90
Mikael Backlund	CGY	C	12.0%	0.04	0.40	0.60	1.10	6.70	1.20	1.20	0.70	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.07	0.04	27.08	27.68	49.5%	0.88	2.86	-1.89	55:00	72.68	12.40
Valeri Nichushkin	CBJ	RW	52.7%	0.04	0.90	1.00	1.90	6.70	3.10	1.30	0.70	0.13	0.17	0.30	0.02	0.05	0.17	0.19	0.22	-	0.88	2.90	0.13	54:42	70.94	18.10
Robert Thomas	STL	C	85.3%	0.03	0.70	1.70	2.40	5.20	0.50	1.60	1.00	0.13	0.38	0.51	0.03	0.07	0.11	27.98	25.43	52.4%	0.98	3.30	0.17	58:42	73.33	19.50
Morgan Barron	WPG	C	4.8%	0.03	0.30	0.40	0.80	3.90	6.10	2.00	1.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.05	0.07	9.18	9.66	48.7%	0.57	1.68	0.08	36:24	51.77	9.70
Andrew Copp	DET	C	8.3%	0.03	0.40	1.10	1.50	4.70	1.60	2.20	0.80	0.07	0.24	0.31	0.04	0.08	0.05	20.98	18.41	53.3%	0.73	2.56	0.05	48:54	64.93	13.50
Jack Hughes	NJD	C	99.4%	0.03	1.60	3.10	4.70	15.50	0.40	2.10	0.70	0.39	1.08	1.47	0.03	0.06	0.19	13.03	19.94	39.5%	1.51	5.26	-0.12	84:36	86.18	42.70
Charlie Coyle	CBJ	C	47.2%	0.03	0.50	1.20	1.70	4.80	3.80	2.00	0.70	0.10	0.29	0.39	0.04	0.07	0.10	20.85	19.48	51.7%	0.99	2.60	0.12	52:48	67.79	14.90
Kiefer Sherwood	SJS	RW	55.2%	0.03	0.60	0.60	1.20	5.70	13.70	1.10	1.80	0.09	0.09	0.18	0.02	0.05	0.09	0.75	0.92	-	0.79	2.43	-0.59	47:18	59.44	11.70
Alex Killorn	ANA	RW	5.1%	0.03	0.40	0.40	0.80	4.00	1.80	0.70	0.90	0.04	0.04	0.08	0.01	0.05	0.06	0.91	1.28	-	0.50	1.69	-0.09	34:00	44.50	8.50
Connor McMichael	STL	C	34.3%	0.03	0.60	1.00	1.60	5.70	1.40	1.30	1.00	0.11	0.21	0.32	0.03	0.06	0.09	7.44	9.56	43.8%	0.84	2.30	0.15	50:24	69.94	15.80
Cody Glass	NJD	C	4.1%	0.03	0.50	0.60	1.00	5.70	2.90	2.00	1.40	0.02	0.03	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.06	26.13	21.73	54.6%	0.77	2.51	-0.09	53:42	77.32	11.40
Mikael Granlund	ANA	C	63.7%	0.03	0.50	1.10	1.60	4.20	1.10	1.60	0.50	0.15	0.38	0.53	0.03	0.06	0.07	12.07	12.68	48.8%	0.61	1.93	-0.09	38:36	46.68	13.60
Joel KivirantaNew team · 2 GP with DAL	DAL	LW	0.1%	0.03	0.40	0.30	0.70	2.90	4.20	1.10	0.60	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.06	0.44	0.52	-	0.55	1.78	0.06	34:36	50.86	8.40
Pavel Zacha	BOS	C	69.1%	0.03	0.80	1.00	1.80	4.40	2.20	1.00	0.90	0.18	0.25	0.43	0.02	0.05	0.08	19.37	17.90	52.0%	0.93	2.57	0.57	54:24	63.08	15.40
Michael Rasmussen	DET	LW	0.1%	0.03	0.30	0.40	0.70	3.70	4.60	2.70	0.80	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.02	0.05	0.04	4.97	5.26	48.6%	0.65	1.97	0.05	40:54	56.81	8.30
Eeli Tolvanen	NYR	LW	40.5%	0.03	0.70	0.60	1.40	4.50	6.30	3.20	0.90	0.11	0.11	0.21	0.01	0.04	0.06	0.11	0.13	-	0.64	1.99	1.02	44:00	61.93	15.50
Zachary Benson	BUF	LW	53.2%	0.03	0.60	1.90	2.50	7.60	3.50	1.80	2.40	0.17	0.63	0.80	0.04	0.07	0.11	0.85	1.06	-	1.03	3.18	0.28	66:48	83.76	21.90
Anton Frondell	CHI	C	68.3%	0.03	0.80	1.50	2.30	6.80	2.30	2.00	0.60	0.19	0.38	0.57	0.02	0.05	0.08	16.00	19.12	45.6%	0.82	2.30	-0.62	49:00	59.16	19.30
Evan Rodrigues	NJD	C	7.5%	0.03	0.50	1.00	1.50	8.90	4.90	1.30	2.00	0.09	0.21	0.30	0.03	0.06	0.06	18.98	20.82	47.7%	1.14	3.05	-0.10	63:30	80.45	15.90
Ridly Greig	OTT	C	14.8%	0.03	0.60	1.00	1.50	6.50	5.20	2.70	2.90	0.09	0.16	0.24	0.03	0.06	0.15	12.70	12.71	50.0%	1.02	2.91	0.07	67:48	98.53	16.40
Jake Guentzel	TBL	LW	99.5%	0.03	1.20	1.70	2.90	8.40	1.70	1.40	1.30	0.44	0.71	1.15	0.02	0.05	0.12	7.61	8.12	48.4%	0.92	2.92	0.32	60:42	66.39	25.80
Tage Thompson	BUF	C	99.5%	0.03	2.30	1.70	4.00	14.50	3.40	2.20	1.70	0.69	0.58	1.27	0.01	0.04	0.42	19.96	23.60	45.8%	1.31	3.84	0.32	77:24	94.17	39.20

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Start from total goals. Each player's goals come from Edgehalla's goal model this week (LineupExperts for longer ranges); assists and ice time from LineupExperts. Our model splits those goals and assists between even strength, the power play and the penalty kill in proportion to the minutes the player has been getting in each situation (recent games weighted most) times his shrunk scoring rate per 60 minutes there.

Heavy shrinkage. One early shorthanded goal says almost nothing about a player's true rate, so shorthanded scoring rates are pulled strongly toward the league average for the position. In our backtest, 25 skaters who scored a shorthanded goal in their first 10 games scored 26 more the rest of the season; the model projected 26.4, while their early pace implied 129.

Team check. Each team's projected shorthanded goals are scaled to the league's shorthanded share of that team's projected goals.

Variance warning

even the leaders project for one or two a season. Single-game values are tiny.

💡

Pro Tip: Use this page to find regular penalty killers, not to chase a shorthanded goal this week.

Shorthanded points

Goals and assists while shorthanded in one ranking.

Shorthanded Points

Penalty-kill deployment

Penalty-kill minutes drive this ranking. Check current deployment.

Line Combinations

Shorthanded assists

The assist side of shorthanded scoring.

Shorthanded Assists

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Frequently Asked Questions

Projected goals are split by strength using the player's recent penalty-kill minutes times a heavily shrunk shorthanded scoring rate. Each team's total is then scaled to the league shorthanded share of its projected goals.

Shorthanded goals are rare. Even top penalty killers average one or two a season, so a single game projects for a few hundredths of a goal.

Less reliable than most categories. In our backtest the model beat a naive per-game rate by a wide margin and got the league total right, but player-level results are noisy because the events are so rare.

No. The model has no opponent power-play adjustment; penalty-kill ice time is the main driver.

Projections by Category

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By Position

All players at each position

NHL Forward

LW, C, RW players

NHL Defensemen

D players

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G players

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Goals, assists, and points leaders

Peripheral Stats

SOG, hits, blocks, ice time, giveaways and shifts

Special Teams

Power-play and shorthanded goals, assists and points

Faceoff & Physical

Faceoffs won, lost and FO%, PIM, takeaways and +/-

Goalie Projections

Starts, wins, losses, saves, SV% and GAA

Fantasy Points

Standard, DraftKings, and FanDuel

NHL Projected Shorthanded Goals This Week

Sorted by Projected Short Handed Goals(Oct 12-18 (Week 3))

Skaters100 of 636

Variance warning

Shorthanded points

Penalty-kill deployment

Shorthanded assists

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NHL Forward

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Faceoff & Physical

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