NHL Projected Goalie Wins This Week

Q: How are goalie win projections calculated?

Projected wins come straight from LineupExperts' projection, a licensed provider; we show their numbers as published and do not adjust them.

Q: Which goalies win the most games?

Goalies on elite teams like Boston, Colorado, and Dallas win the most. Starting goalies on playoff contenders typically accumulate 30+ wins per season.

Q: Should I only start goalies who are favorites?

For wins, yes. Underdogs win only 42% of NHL games. If wins are your priority, target goalies on teams favored by -140 or better.

Q: Do backup goalies have lower win projections?

Generally yes, because backups often face tougher matchups or play for weaker teams. However, quality backups on elite teams can still accumulate wins.

Goalie wins are the most impactful fantasy goaltending stat. Our win projections analyze team strength, opponent quality, and home/away splits to identify which goalies are best positioned for victories this week. Heavy favorites with quality starters offer the safest win upside (Oct 12-18 (Week 3)). (Oct 12-18 (Week 3))

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Updated 8:11 PM ET(hourly)

2 games • 55 players

Sorted by Projected Goaltending Wins(Oct 12-18 (Week 3))

55 players

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Goalies55 of 55

Player	Team	Pos	Rost%	W ↓	GS	L	OTL	SV	GA	SA	SV%	GAA^†	MIN^†	FPTS
Adin Hill	VGK	G	27.3%	2.02	3.00	0.84	0.25	69.8	7.7	77.5	90.1%	2.57	179:23	29.30
Carter Hart	VGK	G	89.0%	1.92	3.00	0.88	0.20	69.9	7.6	77.6	90.2%	2.55	179:32	28.76
Linus Ullmark	OTT	G	88.9%	1.87	3.00	0.89	0.24	68.8	7.2	75.9	90.6%	2.40	179:01	29.92
Jesper Wallstedt	MIN	G	96.4%	1.78	3.00	1.10	0.32	75.3	8.0	83.3	90.4%	2.66	180:04	30.33
Jacob Markstrom	FLA	G	91.8%	1.75	3.00	0.84	0.31	64.4	7.8	72.2	89.2%	2.61	178:36	25.46
Akira Schmid	FLA	G	24.4%	1.71	3.00	0.97	0.32	68.6	8.1	76.7	89.4%	2.66	182:33	26.02
Jake Allen	NJD	G	53.8%	1.61	3.00	1.04	0.24	69.2	8.0	77.2	89.7%	2.66	180:05	26.07
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	BUF	G	66.1%	1.49	3.00	1.06	0.35	70.3	8.5	78.8	89.3%	2.81	180:59	24.73
Calvin Pickard	MIN	G	4.1%	1.43	3.00	1.53	0.14	72.3	8.8	81.1	89.2%	2.93	180:21	24.29
Samuel Ersson	OTT	G	10.6%	1.39	3.00	1.21	0.30	67.7	8.8	76.5	88.5%	2.91	181:03	21.87
Colten Ellis	BUF	G	16.3%	1.34	3.00	1.06	0.30	70.9	8.4	79.3	89.4%	2.81	179:13	25.50
Mackenzie Blackwood	COL	G	91.0%	1.34	2.00	0.54	0.12	46.2	5.2	51.5	89.8%	2.62	119:51	19.25
Andrei Vasilevskiy	TBL	G	99.2%	1.27	2.00	0.62	0.12	43.1	5.0	48.1	89.7%	2.49	119:37	17.97
Pyotr Kochetkov	CAR	G	53.7%	1.25	2.00	0.61	0.14	45.4	4.9	50.3	90.3%	2.43	120:01	19.33
Jacob Fowler	MTL	G	52.3%	1.15	2.00	0.80	0.14	47.5	5.2	52.6	90.2%	2.58	120:06	19.22
Lukas Dostal	ANA	G	83.2%	1.12	2.00	0.89	0.19	49.4	5.8	55.2	89.5%	2.91	119:30	17.69
Jake Oettinger	DAL	G	99.1%	1.10	2.00	0.71	0.19	45.5	4.7	50.2	90.6%	2.37	119:46	19.73
Karel Vejmelka	UTA	G	97.9%	1.09	2.00	0.67	0.15	45.7	5.8	51.5	88.8%	2.87	120:34	16.13
John Gibson	DET	G	63.9%	1.08	2.00	0.89	0.23	47.4	5.4	52.8	89.7%	2.74	118:30	17.74
Anton Forsberg	LAK	G	20.9%	1.08	2.00	0.74	0.18	45.3	5.7	51.1	88.8%	2.83	121:32	15.96
Anthony Stolarz	TOR	G	36.4%	1.07	2.00	0.87	0.15	51.7	5.6	57.3	90.2%	2.83	119:34	19.86
Logan Thompson	WSH	G	99.8%	1.06	2.00	0.69	0.15	54.5	5.6	60.1	90.7%	2.81	119:45	21.84
Darcy Kuemper	LAK	G	51.2%	1.04	2.00	0.88	0.18	45.8	5.8	51.6	88.8%	2.93	118:40	15.78
Ilya Sorokin	NYI	G	97.3%	1.03	2.00	0.86	0.20	46.8	5.3	52.1	89.8%	2.66	119:48	18.17
Devon Levi	EDM	G	54.0%	1.03	2.00	0.81	0.16	53.1	6.0	59.1	89.8%	3.02	119:54	18.99
Stuart Skinner	WPG	G	62.1%	0.99	2.00	0.80	0.21	50.1	5.6	55.6	90.0%	2.79	119:43	18.16
Jet Greaves	CBJ	G	79.8%	0.99	2.00	0.81	0.20	46.4	4.9	51.3	90.4%	2.46	120:32	18.41
Jeremy Swayman	BOS	G	96.6%	0.96	2.00	0.78	0.16	50.7	5.3	56.0	90.5%	2.66	119:55	20.10
Juuse Saros	NSH	G	85.3%	0.95	2.00	1.00	0.25	51.5	6.2	57.7	89.3%	3.09	119:36	17.44
Joel Hofer	STL	G	83.0%	0.95	2.00	0.80	0.25	45.0	4.6	49.7	90.6%	2.32	120:02	19.02
Spencer Knight	CHI	G	73.3%	0.92	2.00	1.06	0.21	50.4	6.1	56.4	89.3%	3.03	119:52	16.70
Sergei Bobrovsky	TOR	G	84.8%	0.86	2.00	0.99	0.26	52.5	6.0	58.5	89.7%	3.02	119:48	18.00
Matt Murray	NSH	G	0.1%	0.85	2.00	0.31	0.24	39.5	4.6	44.1	89.6%	3.65	75:38	14.53
Clay Stevenson	WPG	G	11.4%	0.85	2.00	0.35	0.20	38.7	4.4	43.2	89.7%	3.45	77:25	14.03
Joey Daccord	SEA	G	67.3%	0.84	2.00	0.89	0.17	49.7	5.2	54.9	90.4%	2.64	119:16	18.92
Philipp Grubauer	SEA	G	15.2%	0.84	2.00	0.85	0.21	50.1	5.4	55.5	90.2%	2.70	120:48	18.14
Dylan Garand	NYR	G	53.2%	0.84	2.00	0.40	0.16	42.9	4.2	47.1	91.1%	2.98	84:06	18.21
Yaroslav Askarov	SJS	G	74.8%	0.81	2.00	0.97	0.21	48.9	6.4	55.3	88.5%	3.20	119:13	14.17
Cam Talbot	CBJ	G	6.6%	0.79	2.00	1.14	0.17	48.5	5.6	54.2	89.6%	2.80	120:33	15.93
Daniel Vladar	PHI	G	61.4%	0.75	2.00	0.99	0.26	51.4	6.0	57.4	89.5%	3.02	119:47	16.86
Scott Wedgewood	COL	G	88.9%	0.68	1.00	0.33	0.09	23.3	2.4	25.7	90.6%	2.43	59:55	10.65
Dustin Wolf	CGY	G	54.5%	0.63	2.00	1.16	0.21	51.8	6.9	58.7	88.3%	3.46	119:23	14.22
Connor Hellebuyck	WPG	G	91.3%	0.60	1.00	0.50	0.10	30.8	3.0	33.7	91.1%	3.00	59:56	12.80
Brandon Bussi	CAR	G	93.8%	0.60	1.00	0.31	0.09	22.5	2.6	25.1	89.6%	2.61	60:03	8.72
Leevi Merilainen	VAN	G	20.4%	0.58	2.00	0.85	0.17	45.5	5.8	51.3	88.7%	3.88	89:50	12.37
Daniil Tarasov	DET	G	11.5%	0.55	1.00	0.36	0.09	24.0	2.8	26.8	89.5%	2.80	60:23	8.86
Sergei Murashov	PIT	G	61.8%	0.54	2.00	0.54	0.22	42.5	5.0	47.5	89.5%	3.59	83:19	13.52
Jakub Dobes	MTL	G	93.0%	0.50	1.00	0.40	0.10	24.5	2.9	27.4	89.4%	2.91	59:55	8.85
Kevin Lankinen	VAN	G	22.4%	0.49	2.00	0.84	0.17	41.5	5.9	47.5	87.5%	4.83	73:46	9.60
Tristan Jarry	EDM	G	26.1%	0.48	1.00	0.42	0.10	25.5	3.0	28.6	89.4%	3.03	60:01	8.66
Alex Nedeljkovic	SJS	G	16.7%	0.44	1.00	0.45	0.11	25.0	2.9	27.9	89.5%	2.90	60:24	8.37
Casey DeSmith	DAL	G	15.6%	0.43	1.00	0.46	0.11	25.2	2.7	28.0	90.2%	2.74	60:06	9.17
Jordan Binnington	STL	G	26.8%	0.42	1.00	0.37	0.10	22.7	2.7	25.4	89.4%	2.69	59:55	7.76
Joseph Woll	PHI	G	39.4%	0.41	1.00	0.53	0.16	26.3	2.9	29.2	90.1%	2.89	59:55	9.08
Arturs Silovs	PIT	G	57.0%	0.39	1.00	0.50	0.11	25.1	3.2	28.3	88.8%	3.18	59:56	7.88

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Goalie shots against, saves, goals against, SV%, GAA, wins and OTL are an Edgehalla blend: LineupExperts' goalie line averaged 50/50 with Edgehalla's own goalie model.

Why wins matter

Goalie wins are worth 3-5 points in most fantasy formats, making them the most impactful goalie stat. A win can swing your entire fantasy week.

Win probability factors

- Team strength: Goalies on good teams win more often - Home ice advantage: Most goalies perform better at home - Opponent: Facing weak offensive teams increases win odds - Betting lines: Vegas moneylines indicate expected win probability

Win projection tiers

- High confidence (65%+): Heavy favorites (-180 or better) - Medium confidence (50-65%): Slight favorites - Low confidence (<50%): Underdogs and toss-ups

💡

Pro Tip: Moneyline favorites win about 58% of NHL games. Only start goalies on teams -140 or better if wins are your priority.

This Week's Favorite Goalies

Goalies on heavy favorites have the best win probability. Check team betting lines to identify high-confidence win targets.

Games This Week

Confirmed Starters

Verify your goalie is confirmed to start before counting on a win. Check our starting goalies page for real-time confirmation updates.

Starting Goalies

Wins vs. Saves Trade-off

Goalies on favorites often face fewer shots (fewer saves) but win more often. Balance your goalie strategy based on category needs.

Saves Projections

Related Projections

Build Your Stack

Complete Your Lineup

By Position

Frequently Asked Questions

Projected wins come straight from LineupExperts' projection, a licensed provider; we show their numbers as published and do not adjust them.

Goalies on elite teams like Boston, Colorado, and Dallas win the most. Starting goalies on playoff contenders typically accumulate 30+ wins per season.

For wins, yes. Underdogs win only 42% of NHL games. If wins are your priority, target goalies on teams favored by -140 or better.

Generally yes, because backups often face tougher matchups or play for weaker teams. However, quality backups on elite teams can still accumulate wins.

Projections by Category

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Goalie Projections

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NHL Projected Goalie Wins This Week

Sorted by Projected Goaltending Wins(Oct 12-18 (Week 3))

Goalies55 of 55

Why wins matter

Win probability factors

Win projection tiers

This Week's Favorite Goalies

Confirmed Starters

Wins vs. Saves Trade-off

Related Projections

Build Your Stack

Complete Your Lineup

By Position

Frequently Asked Questions

Projections by Category

By Position

NHL Forward

NHL Defensemen

NHL Goalie

Scoring Projections

Peripheral Stats

Special Teams

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Goalie Projections

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