NHL Projected Shorthanded Goals Next Week

Shorthanded goals are rare: about 3% of all goals. These projections estimate each player's share of his projected goals that come while killing a penalty. The ranking is driven mostly by penalty-kill ice time times a mostly league-level scoring rate, so treat it as a guide to who is on the ice shorthanded, not a prediction of who will score (Oct 19-25 (Week 4)). (Oct 19-25 (Week 4))

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Updated 7:28 PM ET(hourly)

2 games • 700 players

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

Shorthanded scoring is rare and streaky: even the leaders score only a few a season. These projections are driven mostly by penalty-kill ice time, with each team’s total held to the league’s shorthanded share of its projected goals and assists. How the model works

Sorted by Projected Short Handed Goals(Oct 19-25 (Week 4))

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Player	Team	Pos	Rost%	SHG^† ↓	G	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPG^†	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	GWG^†	FOW^†	FOL^†	FO%^†	TK^†	GV^†	+/-^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
Tim Stutzle	OTT	C	99.7%	0.09	1.40	2.10	3.40	6.70	5.70	1.90	1.30	0.44	0.80	1.24	0.05	0.14	0.32	13.35	12.02	52.6%	1.03	3.26	0.09	62:18	78.71	27.60
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	99.1%	0.08	2.70	3.00	5.60	15.30	2.80	4.40	0.80	0.74	0.90	1.64	0.04	0.12	0.50	37.84	28.31	57.2%	1.49	3.85	0.21	84:30	93.14	50.70
Brandon Hagel	TBL	LW	99.3%	0.08	1.40	1.60	2.90	8.00	1.70	2.00	2.10	0.41	0.54	0.94	0.04	0.12	0.13	0.95	1.17	-	1.17	2.98	-0.07	62:00	70.88	26.60
Nick Paul	TOR	C	8.1%	0.08	0.80	1.00	1.80	5.20	6.50	2.40	1.60	0.12	0.16	0.28	0.04	0.12	0.15	20.64	21.38	49.1%	0.94	2.79	0.17	61:48	79.14	14.70
Brock Nelson	COL	C	86.6%	0.07	1.30	1.40	2.70	8.80	1.70	2.90	1.20	0.28	0.34	0.62	0.04	0.12	0.23	34.14	33.88	50.2%	1.17	3.50	1.29	75:48	94.13	26.40
Matthew Boldy	MIN	RW	100.0%	0.07	1.70	1.80	3.50	13.80	3.70	3.20	1.90	0.46	0.56	1.03	0.03	0.11	0.31	3.03	3.70	-	1.60	4.13	-0.14	84:00	82.93	37.30
Collin Graf	SJS	LW	24.5%	0.07	0.70	0.80	1.50	5.60	4.30	2.10	0.70	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.10	0.08	1.19	1.62	-	1.06	2.86	-1.21	64:18	78.59	14.50
Frederick Gaudreau	SEA	C	7.0%	0.07	0.70	0.50	1.20	3.40	1.40	2.60	0.30	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.09	0.14	15.62	17.70	46.9%	0.78	2.14	-0.06	47:12	63.66	12.30
Mark Jankowski	CAR	C	9.0%	0.07	1.00	0.40	1.40	3.50	1.90	1.40	0.50	0.13	0.06	0.19	0.01	0.08	0.17	16.11	16.67	49.1%	0.54	1.91	-0.02	37:30	52.40	12.80
Pius Suter	STL	C	4.1%	0.07	0.60	0.60	1.20	4.20	2.10	1.20	0.60	0.04	0.04	0.08	0.02	0.09	0.08	13.74	14.90	48.0%	0.71	2.30	-0.35	48:30	65.38	12.40
Artturi Lehkonen	COL	LW	75.9%	0.07	1.40	1.20	2.60	7.90	2.60	2.20	0.90	0.26	0.22	0.48	0.03	0.10	0.25	0.44	0.56	-	1.18	3.69	1.34	77:36	95.62	26.50
Sebastian Aho	CAR	C	99.7%	0.06	1.30	2.20	3.50	7.90	2.10	1.10	2.00	0.45	0.83	1.28	0.07	0.13	0.22	24.12	22.11	52.2%	0.90	3.27	-0.03	60:12	69.05	29.00
Tim Washe	ANA	C	8.5%	0.06	0.30	0.40	0.70	3.40	9.60	2.90	1.40	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.04	0.10	0.04	25.20	22.00	53.4%	0.79	2.32	-0.06	51:00	73.62	8.10
Fraser Minten	BOS	C	45.7%	0.06	1.00	0.90	1.80	5.70	4.40	1.50	0.70	0.13	0.12	0.25	0.03	0.09	0.12	14.38	15.52	48.1%	0.81	2.09	0.51	45:54	58.05	18.10
Bryan Rust	PIT	RW	82.9%	0.06	1.10	1.10	2.20	7.30	1.60	2.80	1.00	0.22	0.26	0.47	0.03	0.09	0.13	0.26	0.33	-	0.88	2.88	0.36	59:30	70.67	20.60
Nico Sturm	MIN	C	0.1%	0.06	0.40	0.30	0.70	3.30	4.90	1.60	1.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.09	0.07	15.87	12.42	56.1%	0.67	1.94	-0.08	41:54	56.94	7.50
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	99.7%	0.06	1.50	3.60	5.20	10.40	2.10	1.20	1.40	0.41	1.48	1.89	0.05	0.10	0.26	17.41	17.81	49.4%	1.12	3.73	-0.63	69:06	71.78	40.90
Colton Sissons	TOR	C	3.3%	0.06	0.40	0.30	0.60	4.40	7.50	2.30	0.90	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.08	0.07	20.37	16.71	54.9%	0.92	2.65	0.16	56:12	78.87	9.20
Alex Tuch	WSH	RW	93.8%	0.06	0.80	0.80	1.60	4.70	2.00	2.30	1.20	0.13	0.14	0.27	0.03	0.09	0.12	1.54	1.86	-	0.81	1.84	0.86	38:30	49.16	16.00
Bo Horvat	NYI	C	92.4%	0.06	1.40	1.20	2.60	9.20	3.00	1.50	1.20	0.43	0.37	0.79	0.04	0.09	0.15	28.48	22.51	55.9%	0.92	3.12	0.27	61:06	69.85	25.10
Teddy Blueger	TOR	C	3.2%	0.06	0.30	0.70	1.00	3.90	5.10	1.80	1.60	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.11	0.06	20.26	20.99	49.1%	0.93	2.76	0.16	55:36	75.33	9.30
Alex Killorn	ANA	RW	5.1%	0.06	0.70	0.70	1.40	6.90	3.00	1.30	1.70	0.07	0.08	0.14	0.02	0.08	0.09	1.83	2.55	-	1.00	3.37	-0.08	68:00	88.99	15.00
Blake Coleman	MIN	RW	41.3%	0.06	0.90	0.90	1.90	9.10	8.90	2.60	3.30	0.13	0.14	0.26	0.03	0.08	0.16	1.11	1.39	-	1.14	3.74	-0.13	68:36	89.10	20.60
Ryan O'Reilly	NSH	C	81.0%	0.06	0.80	1.40	2.20	5.30	0.70	2.40	0.90	0.23	0.46	0.69	0.05	0.10	0.12	27.36	22.79	54.6%	1.08	2.64	-0.44	60:18	71.39	17.50
Jack Eichel	VGK	C	99.9%	0.06	1.40	2.40	3.70	9.60	1.00	2.00	0.60	0.41	1.06	1.47	0.06	0.11	0.30	22.78	25.34	47.3%	1.11	3.56	-0.04	63:48	66.91	33.00
Sam Reinhart	FLA	RW	97.3%	0.06	1.60	1.00	2.60	8.30	3.20	1.60	0.50	0.64	0.41	1.05	0.01	0.07	0.30	5.94	7.12	45.5%	0.91	2.90	-0.04	63:00	70.68	24.80
Will Cuylle	NYR	LW	64.5%	0.06	0.90	0.80	1.70	6.70	12.00	1.70	1.70	0.14	0.16	0.30	0.02	0.08	0.07	2.01	2.20	-	0.62	2.23	0.71	47:12	64.80	17.60
Kyle Connor	WPG	LW	98.9%	0.05	1.60	1.70	3.30	9.20	0.90	1.10	0.50	0.40	0.45	0.85	0.03	0.08	0.55	0.05	0.06	-	0.98	2.95	0.18	63:06	67.18	28.40
Joel Armia	LAK	RW	3.3%	0.05	0.50	0.40	0.90	3.80	3.20	1.60	0.80	0.04	0.04	0.08	0.02	0.07	0.08	1.39	1.82	-	0.75	2.07	0.34	42:06	57.62	9.60
Nico Hischier	NJD	C	95.3%	0.05	1.20	1.30	2.60	7.80	1.80	2.30	0.70	0.37	0.40	0.77	0.03	0.09	0.11	35.93	29.53	54.9%	0.95	2.77	-0.15	61:24	70.26	23.80
Connor Dewar	PIT	LW	3.4%	0.05	0.40	0.50	0.80	4.10	4.80	2.00	1.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.09	0.05	2.12	2.29	-	0.61	1.80	0.27	39:18	53.58	10.40
Christian Dvorak	PHI	C	13.4%	0.05	0.80	0.80	1.60	4.40	2.30	2.00	0.80	0.12	0.13	0.25	0.03	0.08	0.08	21.91	19.02	53.5%	0.83	2.31	-0.30	50:36	66.21	13.40
Mikael Granlund	ANA	C	63.7%	0.05	0.80	2.00	2.90	7.20	1.90	2.70	0.90	0.24	0.70	0.94	0.05	0.10	0.10	24.17	25.39	48.8%	1.21	3.87	-0.08	77:18	93.47	24.20
Anthony Cirelli	TBL	C	46.0%	0.05	0.70	0.90	1.60	4.60	1.70	2.30	1.60	0.12	0.16	0.27	0.04	0.09	0.06	23.67	24.85	48.8%	0.87	2.66	-0.07	54:12	70.43	16.40
Lawson Crouse	UTA	RW	32.8%	0.05	0.60	0.50	1.20	5.40	8.40	1.90	1.70	0.05	0.05	0.10	0.02	0.07	0.07	1.00	1.28	-	0.72	2.13	-0.11	46:06	65.82	14.20
Aliaksei Protas	WSH	LW	52.3%	0.05	0.70	0.80	1.50	3.80	0.80	1.10	0.50	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.08	0.10	0.76	0.86	-	0.55	1.74	0.83	34:18	42.60	12.60
Tom Wilson	WSH	RW	94.2%	0.05	0.80	0.90	1.70	4.00	6.00	1.80	2.70	0.17	0.20	0.38	0.03	0.08	0.12	0.37	0.45	-	0.57	1.98	0.82	38:24	46.17	15.30
Josh Anderson	MTL	RW	11.1%	0.05	0.60	0.40	1.00	4.00	5.70	1.20	3.10	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.07	0.11	0.66	0.69	-	0.64	1.99	0.46	42:42	56.96	10.10
Logan O'Connor	COL	RW	0.2%	0.05	0.50	0.50	1.00	4.50	3.40	2.20	1.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.08	0.09	1.12	1.35	-	0.87	2.59	1.04	53:42	72.99	10.90
Tyson Foerster	PHI	LW	35.9%	0.05	0.90	0.60	1.50	6.20	3.90	2.20	1.60	0.21	0.15	0.36	0.01	0.06	0.10	0.06	0.07	-	0.76	2.26	-0.29	51:36	67.23	14.20
Kiefer Sherwood	SJS	RW	55.2%	0.05	0.80	0.70	1.60	7.20	18.90	1.40	2.30	0.12	0.11	0.23	0.02	0.07	0.10	1.00	1.23	-	1.05	3.24	-1.10	63:00	79.17	15.00
Jake Evans	MTL	C	4.9%	0.05	0.40	0.60	0.90	3.20	3.80	2.00	0.80	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.08	0.07	21.25	18.19	53.9%	0.79	2.15	0.50	46:06	59.46	9.10
Tye Kartye	NYR	LW	8.1%	0.05	0.50	0.80	1.30	3.70	8.40	1.50	1.70	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.08	0.04	0.32	0.40	-	0.55	1.60	0.60	36:18	52.13	11.10
Shane Pinto	OTT	C	43.7%	0.05	0.80	1.30	2.10	5.80	4.30	2.10	1.80	0.19	0.37	0.56	0.04	0.09	0.18	18.00	17.40	50.8%	0.97	2.62	0.08	56:30	77.64	19.00
Arttu Hyry	DAL	C	4.0%	0.05	0.20	0.20	0.40	3.90	5.10	1.20	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.07	0.02	14.78	11.76	55.7%	0.54	1.68	-0.13	35:48	47.90	6.40
Simon Holmstrom	NYI	RW	14.8%	0.05	0.70	0.80	1.50	3.90	0.70	1.90	0.50	0.10	0.13	0.23	0.04	0.09	0.08	0.21	0.26	-	0.83	2.38	0.24	49:42	65.49	13.00
Trevor Moore	LAK	LW	8.8%	0.05	0.60	0.70	1.30	6.80	2.40	1.60	0.40	0.03	0.05	0.08	0.03	0.07	0.10	0.29	0.37	-	0.81	2.45	0.42	50:54	68.13	14.40
Logan Stankoven	CAR	C	80.3%	0.05	1.00	0.80	1.80	6.30	1.50	1.20	0.60	0.19	0.16	0.34	0.02	0.06	0.17	13.19	16.04	45.1%	0.77	2.22	-0.03	48:00	57.60	18.50
Dylan Larkin	DET	C	95.1%	0.05	1.10	1.30	2.50	9.50	1.70	1.20	1.70	0.32	0.41	0.72	0.02	0.07	0.13	31.59	28.27	52.8%	0.94	3.24	-0.30	60:36	72.00	22.90
Pavel Buchnevich	STL	RW	31.5%	0.05	0.70	1.10	1.70	5.10	1.30	1.50	0.80	0.13	0.26	0.39	0.04	0.09	0.10	3.40	4.80	-	0.88	2.72	-0.37	55:24	70.03	15.70
Ben Meyers	SEA	C	5.8%	0.05	0.30	0.70	1.10	2.90	3.50	1.10	0.90	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.08	0.06	8.46	8.15	50.9%	0.54	1.63	-0.05	34:48	52.10	7.80
Alex Newhook	MTL	LW	24.6%	0.05	0.70	0.80	1.50	4.40	3.40	1.30	0.80	0.10	0.13	0.23	0.03	0.07	0.12	11.50	11.36	50.3%	0.68	2.18	0.47	46:12	59.17	12.10
Ty Dellandrea	SJS	C	0.1%	0.05	0.20	0.50	0.70	4.00	9.30	2.60	2.30	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.06	0.10	0.02	18.69	18.31	50.5%	0.82	2.41	-0.97	50:48	66.05	6.40
Parker Kelly	COL	LW	17.7%	0.04	0.50	0.90	1.50	4.60	8.30	3.10	1.30	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.09	0.09	6.12	7.63	44.5%	0.84	2.65	0.97	50:42	72.89	14.90
Nick Schmaltz	UTA	RW	97.1%	0.04	1.20	1.30	2.60	8.00	1.30	1.70	0.80	0.44	0.43	0.87	0.02	0.07	0.13	13.64	15.41	47.0%	1.12	2.83	-0.12	57:24	70.67	22.80
Mark Stone	VGK	RW	94.7%	0.04	1.00	2.00	2.90	5.90	2.00	2.30	0.80	0.32	0.85	1.17	0.03	0.07	0.21	0.29	0.36	-	0.95	2.84	-0.03	58:06	64.14	25.70
Connor Brown	NJD	RW	5.8%	0.04	0.60	1.00	1.60	4.90	1.00	1.50	0.70	0.10	0.18	0.28	0.04	0.08	0.06	0.49	0.61	-	0.75	2.22	-0.12	46:00	53.96	14.60
Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	98.2%	0.04	0.80	1.80	2.50	7.70	3.80	2.10	0.60	0.23	0.58	0.81	0.03	0.07	0.06	21.64	18.97	53.3%	1.04	3.28	0.84	60:48	73.18	22.10
Emil Heineman	NYI	LW	29.3%	0.04	0.70	0.50	1.20	5.70	8.40	1.70	0.80	0.08	0.06	0.13	0.01	0.06	0.08	0.33	0.42	-	0.65	1.94	0.21	43:00	54.98	12.90
Anton Lundell	FLA	C	42.0%	0.04	0.60	0.90	1.50	6.80	3.80	1.40	1.20	0.17	0.29	0.46	0.03	0.07	0.11	23.40	21.91	51.6%	0.75	2.75	-0.03	53:06	67.59	15.50
Oliver Kapanen	MTL	C	26.8%	0.04	0.70	0.70	1.40	5.00	1.20	2.00	0.70	0.09	0.09	0.18	0.02	0.07	0.12	10.38	11.68	47.1%	0.62	1.83	0.41	39:54	51.00	13.80
Cole Koepke	WPG	LW	0.0%	0.04	0.30	0.30	0.60	3.20	6.80	1.10	0.60	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.07	0.10	0.05	0.06	-	0.52	1.60	0.11	32:30	46.26	6.90
Alex Formenton	EDM	LW	8.9%	0.04	0.50	0.40	0.90	5.80	4.40	1.50	1.80	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.07	0.09	0.27	0.33	-	0.66	2.02	-0.48	44:36	68.58	11.50
Marat Khusnutdinov	BOS	LW	10.5%	0.04	0.50	0.60	1.10	3.10	1.90	1.40	0.50	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.02	0.06	0.06	3.30	3.58	-	0.64	1.99	0.47	40:24	52.49	11.00
Dawson Mercer	NJD	RW	21.7%	0.04	0.60	0.80	1.40	6.00	1.10	1.70	0.90	0.05	0.08	0.13	0.03	0.07	0.06	3.92	4.94	-	0.89	2.49	-0.15	53:00	64.11	13.70
Brett Howden	VGK	LW	14.6%	0.04	0.80	0.80	1.50	4.10	4.10	1.40	1.70	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.06	0.17	10.05	9.71	50.9%	0.66	2.22	-0.03	45:18	59.17	14.20
Alexander Kerfoot	NSH	LW	3.2%	0.04	0.40	0.70	1.10	2.90	2.30	2.20	0.80	0.05	0.10	0.15	0.03	0.07	0.06	8.07	7.80	50.8%	0.78	2.21	-0.37	44:36	63.35	9.40
Zachary L'HeureuxNew team · 4 GP with COL	COL	LW	11.2%	0.04	0.60	0.50	1.10	5.20	10.20	2.10	3.30	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.07	0.11	0.31	0.37	-	0.77	2.38	0.93	49:06	67.39	12.10
Connor McMichael	STL	C	34.3%	0.04	0.70	1.10	1.80	5.90	1.60	1.60	1.20	0.13	0.23	0.36	0.03	0.07	0.10	7.44	9.56	43.8%	0.84	2.30	-0.34	50:24	69.94	17.00
William Karlsson	VGK	C	19.3%	0.04	0.70	0.80	1.50	5.50	0.80	2.20	0.40	0.09	0.12	0.21	0.02	0.06	0.15	24.01	17.28	58.1%	0.81	2.28	-0.03	51:24	61.56	16.00
Nicolas Roy	COL	C	12.1%	0.04	0.70	1.00	1.60	5.10	3.70	2.00	1.50	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.13	19.90	18.05	52.4%	0.98	2.99	1.06	56:42	76.23	14.20
Jack Drury	NSH	C	4.8%	0.04	0.30	0.60	0.80	3.80	1.90	2.20	1.20	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.07	0.04	18.72	15.51	54.7%	0.73	1.85	-0.36	41:30	55.75	10.30
Benjamin Kindel	PIT	RW	49.9%	0.04	0.70	0.70	1.40	6.00	1.10	2.10	0.60	0.22	0.23	0.45	0.02	0.06	0.08	11.49	13.45	46.1%	0.79	2.50	0.25	46:06	55.19	14.30
Vincent Trocheck	UTA	C	84.8%	0.04	0.80	0.90	1.70	6.10	8.90	2.20	2.20	0.15	0.20	0.35	0.02	0.06	0.09	27.69	21.08	56.8%	0.92	3.05	-0.14	59:54	75.08	15.80
Ilya Mikheyev	TBL	RW	7.5%	0.04	0.50	0.60	1.10	3.90	1.40	0.90	0.50	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.06	0.05	0.14	0.18	-	0.77	2.37	-0.07	48:06	60.94	9.90
Blake Lizotte	PIT	C	0.2%	0.04	0.30	0.80	1.10	3.10	2.60	2.00	1.50	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.08	0.03	13.00	14.08	48.0%	0.59	2.00	0.27	39:30	55.58	9.80
Leo Carlsson	ANA	C	94.9%	0.04	1.70	2.40	4.10	9.90	0.80	1.90	1.10	0.51	0.99	1.50	0.02	0.05	0.22	21.97	26.55	45.3%	1.16	3.52	-0.07	72:12	84.04	34.30
Frank Nazar	CHI	C	49.4%	0.03	0.60	0.80	1.40	4.30	1.10	1.40	0.80	0.13	0.20	0.32	0.02	0.06	0.08	11.25	12.39	47.6%	0.60	1.90	-0.19	35:00	42.28	11.60
Robert Thomas	STL	C	85.3%	0.03	0.70	1.90	2.60	5.30	0.60	2.00	1.20	0.13	0.42	0.56	0.04	0.07	0.10	27.98	25.43	52.4%	0.98	3.30	-0.39	58:42	73.33	21.10
Noah Cates	PHI	C	12.5%	0.03	0.50	0.60	1.10	4.10	3.60	1.70	0.90	0.05	0.07	0.12	0.02	0.05	0.05	16.49	18.97	46.5%	0.77	2.00	-0.28	45:18	64.11	10.90
Morgan Barron	WPG	C	4.8%	0.03	0.30	0.40	0.80	3.50	5.40	2.00	0.90	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.05	0.10	9.18	9.66	48.7%	0.57	1.68	0.12	36:24	51.77	9.40
Teuvo Teravainen	CHI	LW	11.0%	0.03	0.40	0.70	1.10	2.40	0.50	1.00	0.20	0.05	0.11	0.16	0.03	0.06	0.06	1.38	1.57	-	0.52	1.72	-0.20	34:00	43.41	8.10
Joel Eriksson Ek	MIN	C	77.8%	0.03	1.00	1.30	2.30	11.70	6.10	2.20	1.40	0.26	0.39	0.65	0.02	0.06	0.18	38.85	39.51	49.6%	1.24	3.48	-0.13	78:42	82.01	28.70
Brandon Duhaime	TOR	LW	0.2%	0.03	0.20	0.20	0.40	3.30	8.60	2.90	3.10	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.04	1.01	1.28	-	0.70	2.15	0.14	47:00	70.48	7.70
Scott Laughton	LAK	C	4.8%	0.03	0.40	0.50	0.90	4.40	5.60	1.90	1.30	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.06	0.06	18.36	14.46	55.9%	0.73	2.24	0.36	43:30	63.02	9.00
Boone Jenner	WSH	C	23.1%	0.03	0.50	0.60	1.10	4.20	4.40	2.10	1.10	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.06	0.07	8.48	7.06	54.6%	0.51	1.64	0.80	33:06	42.46	11.80
Noel Acciari	PHI	RW	3.3%	0.03	0.30	0.20	0.50	2.60	5.30	2.90	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.03	14.10	12.60	52.8%	0.63	1.93	-0.27	41:18	55.70	6.40
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	NYI	C	10.7%	0.03	0.40	0.80	1.20	3.50	5.00	2.30	0.30	0.02	0.05	0.07	0.04	0.07	0.04	25.93	19.28	57.4%	0.80	2.27	0.25	48:42	68.29	10.90
Justin Danforth	BUF	C	0.0%	0.03	0.30	0.30	0.60	2.80	3.10	1.30	0.60	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.05	0.07	9.93	10.62	48.3%	0.46	1.34	0.17	28:06	44.01	6.30
Eric Robinson	CAR	LW	3.2%	0.03	0.60	0.50	1.10	4.00	4.50	0.40	0.30	0.03	0.03	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.10	0.30	0.39	-	0.55	1.76	-0.02	36:12	47.61	10.60
Michael McCarron	MIN	C	10.7%	0.03	0.30	0.60	0.90	5.20	10.10	3.90	3.60	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.07	0.05	26.43	24.37	52.0%	0.92	2.61	-0.11	56:12	71.90	12.00
Eeli Tolvanen	NYR	LW	40.5%	0.03	0.70	0.60	1.20	4.90	6.20	3.00	0.90	0.11	0.11	0.21	0.01	0.04	0.05	0.11	0.13	-	0.64	1.99	0.67	44:00	61.93	14.80
Pavel Zacha	BOS	C	69.1%	0.03	0.80	1.00	1.80	4.60	2.10	1.10	1.00	0.18	0.25	0.43	0.02	0.05	0.10	19.37	17.90	52.0%	0.93	2.57	0.57	54:24	63.08	15.80
Paul Cotter	VAN	LW	56.1%	0.03	0.60	0.30	0.80	2.80	8.00	0.90	0.90	0.05	0.03	0.08	0.01	0.04	0.09	3.73	3.99	-	0.60	1.80	-0.40	39:12	50.90	7.80
Joel Farabee	CGY	LW	11.4%	0.03	0.40	0.60	0.90	4.10	1.10	1.30	0.90	0.07	0.13	0.19	0.02	0.05	0.06	0.71	0.89	-	0.56	1.59	-0.60	32:24	41.90	8.60
Joel KivirantaNew team · 2 GP with DAL	DAL	LW	0.1%	0.03	0.30	0.30	0.60	3.20	4.40	1.10	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.05	0.03	0.44	0.52	-	0.55	1.78	-0.12	34:36	50.86	8.60
Mark Kastelic	BOS	C	16.1%	0.03	0.30	0.80	1.00	3.20	7.50	2.30	3.50	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.06	0.04	10.17	7.78	56.7%	0.67	1.65	0.42	35:18	49.39	10.60
Sean Couturier	PHI	C	8.3%	0.03	0.30	0.70	1.10	4.30	4.00	1.20	1.00	0.02	0.05	0.06	0.03	0.06	0.03	24.14	20.26	54.4%	0.85	2.53	-0.33	51:24	68.26	9.50
Mitch Marner	VGK	RW	98.9%	0.03	0.90	2.20	3.10	6.10	1.10	2.00	0.70	0.28	0.84	1.12	0.03	0.06	0.19	3.77	5.06	-	1.26	3.69	-0.04	62:06	67.01	24.00
Kasperi Kapanen	EDM	RW	16.4%	0.03	0.50	0.60	1.10	4.30	4.30	1.10	0.80	0.12	0.16	0.28	0.01	0.04	0.09	0.62	0.72	-	0.60	2.05	-0.40	41:36	54.05	9.80

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Start from total goals. Each player's goals come from Edgehalla's goal model next week (LineupExperts for longer ranges); assists and ice time from LineupExperts. Our model splits those goals and assists between even strength, the power play and the penalty kill in proportion to the minutes the player has been getting in each situation (recent games weighted most) times his shrunk scoring rate per 60 minutes there.

Heavy shrinkage. One early shorthanded goal says almost nothing about a player's true rate, so shorthanded scoring rates are pulled strongly toward the league average for the position. In our backtest, 25 skaters who scored a shorthanded goal in their first 10 games scored 26 more the rest of the season; the model projected 26.4, while their early pace implied 129.

Team check. Each team's projected shorthanded goals are scaled to the league's shorthanded share of that team's projected goals.

Variance warning

even the leaders project for one or two a season. Single-game values are tiny.

💡

Pro Tip: Use this page to find regular penalty killers, not to chase a shorthanded goal next week.

Shorthanded points

Goals and assists while shorthanded in one ranking.

Shorthanded Points

Penalty-kill deployment

Penalty-kill minutes drive this ranking. Check current deployment.

Line Combinations

Shorthanded assists

The assist side of shorthanded scoring.

Shorthanded Assists

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Frequently Asked Questions

Projected goals are split by strength using the player's recent penalty-kill minutes times a heavily shrunk shorthanded scoring rate. Each team's total is then scaled to the league shorthanded share of its projected goals.

Shorthanded goals are rare. Even top penalty killers average one or two a season, so a single game projects for a few hundredths of a goal.

Less reliable than most categories. In our backtest the model beat a naive per-game rate by a wide margin and got the league total right, but player-level results are noisy because the events are so rare.

No. The model has no opponent power-play adjustment; penalty-kill ice time is the main driver.

Projections by Category

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By Position

All players at each position

NHL Forward

LW, C, RW players

NHL Defensemen

D players

NHL Goalie

G players

Scoring Projections

Goals, assists, and points leaders

Peripheral Stats

SOG, hits, blocks, ice time, giveaways and shifts

Special Teams

Power-play and shorthanded goals, assists and points

Faceoff & Physical

Faceoffs won, lost and FO%, PIM, takeaways and +/-

Goalie Projections

Starts, wins, losses, saves, SV% and GAA

Fantasy Points

Standard, DraftKings, and FanDuel

NHL Projected Shorthanded Goals Next Week

Sorted by Projected Short Handed Goals(Oct 19-25 (Week 4))

Skaters100 of 644

Variance warning

Shorthanded points

Penalty-kill deployment

Shorthanded assists

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NHL Forward

NHL Defensemen

NHL Goalie

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Special Teams

Faceoff & Physical

Goalie Projections

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NHL Team Projections