NHL Projected Plus/Minus Next Week

Plus/minus counts even-strength and shorthanded goals for and against while a player is on the ice. Our projection is mostly a team stat: the team's projected goal differential away from the power play, shared out by each player's even-strength and penalty-kill minutes. It is one of the noisiest categories in hockey, so read it as a direction, not a number (Oct 19-25 (Week 4)). (Oct 19-25 (Week 4))

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Updated 7:27 PM ET(hourly)

2 games • 700 players

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

Plus/minus is one of hockey's noisiest stats (year-to-year correlation about 0.3). This projection is the player's share of his team's projected even-strength and shorthanded goal differential, with no individual on-ice adjustment. How the model works

Sorted by Projected Plus Minus(Oct 19-25 (Week 4))

644 players

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Player	Team	Pos	Rost%	+/-^† ↓	G	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPG^†	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHG^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	GWG^†	FOW^†	FOL^†	FO%^†	TK^†	GV^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
Devon Toews	COL	D	72.7%	1.67	0.40	1.70	2.10	6.60	1.90	4.60	1.40	0.09	0.43	0.52	0.01	0.04	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.00	-	1.72	4.80	93:54	111.63	24.10
Cale Makar	COL	D	100.0%	1.61	1.30	3.20	4.50	11.10	1.70	6.00	1.00	0.50	1.41	1.91	0.01	0.04	0.06	0.23	0.00	0.00	-	1.59	5.06	99:54	103.47	42.10
Brent Burns	COL	D	46.7%	1.51	0.30	1.10	1.50	7.30	0.90	4.00	1.30	0.01	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	-	1.10	4.24	79:18	100.40	19.00
Brett Kulak	COL	D	4.3%	1.49	0.10	0.90	1.10	4.50	1.20	5.40	1.10	0.01	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	1.03	3.95	78:18	92.71	14.00
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	99.9%	1.40	2.10	4.10	6.20	17.20	2.30	1.90	2.00	0.62	1.30	1.91	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.38	35.62	35.31	50.2%	1.35	5.39	89:00	95.04	52.00
Josh Manson	COL	D	36.0%	1.37	0.30	1.10	1.40	5.90	8.40	4.90	3.20	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	-	1.01	3.92	71:42	91.98	19.30
Artturi Lehkonen	COL	LW	75.9%	1.34	1.40	1.20	2.60	7.90	2.60	2.20	0.90	0.26	0.22	0.48	0.07	0.03	0.10	0.25	0.44	0.56	-	1.18	3.69	77:36	95.62	26.50
Brock Nelson	COL	C	86.6%	1.29	1.30	1.40	2.70	8.80	1.70	2.90	1.20	0.28	0.34	0.62	0.07	0.04	0.12	0.23	34.14	33.88	50.2%	1.17	3.50	75:48	94.13	26.40
Sam Malinski	COL	D	44.2%	1.27	0.40	1.00	1.40	7.50	2.10	4.70	1.00	0.03	0.09	0.12	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.07	0.00	0.00	-	1.10	3.46	67:48	83.70	20.70
Martin Necas	COL	RW	99.9%	1.24	1.80	2.80	4.60	10.80	3.70	1.10	1.00	0.57	0.94	1.51	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.32	1.12	1.15	-	1.33	4.37	80:54	84.50	37.90
Nazem Kadri	COL	C	69.5%	1.21	1.00	1.70	2.80	11.00	2.30	1.80	1.50	0.27	0.56	0.83	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.18	23.55	26.65	46.9%	1.22	3.96	76:18	88.72	25.50
Jaden Schwartz	COL	LW	30.3%	1.16	0.90	1.10	2.00	6.50	2.10	2.10	1.00	0.14	0.20	0.34	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.16	1.68	1.79	-	1.18	3.28	66:48	85.65	19.00
Gabriel Landeskog	COL	LW	46.7%	1.11	0.90	1.50	2.40	8.40	5.60	2.30	2.40	0.20	0.37	0.57	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.16	8.65	7.36	54.0%	1.00	3.18	67:06	80.40	24.30
Noah JuulsenNew team · 4 GP with COL	COL	D	0.1%	1.10	0.00	0.40	0.50	2.10	8.40	4.90	1.50	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.90	3.15	57:54	84.90	8.20
Vladislav Gavrikov	NYR	D	57.5%	1.10	0.30	1.10	1.30	4.40	2.20	4.30	0.90	0.02	0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.83	3.49	67:42	78.97	15.90
Nicolas Roy	COL	C	12.1%	1.06	0.70	1.00	1.60	5.10	3.70	2.00	1.50	0.04	0.06	0.10	0.04	0.03	0.07	0.13	19.90	18.05	52.4%	0.98	2.99	56:42	76.23	14.20
Marcus Pettersson	NYR	D	5.7%	1.05	0.10	0.70	0.80	2.50	3.70	4.60	1.40	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	1.00	3.25	63:48	74.75	10.70
Logan O'Connor	COL	RW	0.2%	1.04	0.50	0.50	1.00	4.50	3.40	2.20	1.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.03	0.08	0.09	1.12	1.35	-	0.87	2.59	53:42	72.99	10.90
Matt Roy	WSH	D	8.1%	0.99	0.10	0.50	0.60	2.20	3.50	3.80	0.60	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.58	2.08	40:36	44.38	9.20
Adam Fox	NYR	D	99.0%	0.98	0.30	2.30	2.60	4.60	1.50	4.60	1.40	0.10	0.91	1.01	0.00	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	1.17	3.61	69:18	78.79	22.70
Jakob Chychrun	WSH	D	99.0%	0.98	0.60	0.90	1.50	5.20	1.60	3.00	1.90	0.20	0.28	0.48	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.09	0.00	0.00	-	0.69	2.47	45:24	45.26	16.50
Parker Kelly	COL	LW	17.7%	0.97	0.50	0.90	1.50	4.60	8.30	3.10	1.30	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.09	0.09	6.12	7.63	44.5%	0.84	2.65	50:42	72.89	14.90
Martin Fehervary	WSH	D	25.1%	0.96	0.10	0.50	0.60	1.50	3.60	4.40	1.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.48	1.99	39:24	44.58	9.10
Fedor Svechkov	COL	C	8.8%	0.94	0.40	0.70	1.10	4.10	2.90	2.10	1.20	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.07	12.95	16.43	44.1%	0.78	2.52	49:54	63.16	10.60
Timothy Liljegren	WSH	D	4.8%	0.93	0.10	0.50	0.60	2.00	2.00	3.60	0.90	0.01	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.52	2.01	38:36	46.35	7.10
Zachary L'HeureuxNew team · 4 GP with COL	COL	LW	11.2%	0.93	0.60	0.50	1.10	5.20	10.20	2.10	3.30	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.07	0.11	0.31	0.37	-	0.77	2.38	49:06	67.39	12.10
Sean Durzi	NYR	D	37.4%	0.93	0.20	1.00	1.20	3.30	2.30	3.90	1.70	0.04	0.19	0.22	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.94	3.13	59:24	74.64	12.70
Braden Schneider	NYR	D	16.4%	0.91	0.10	0.50	0.60	3.50	6.10	4.40	1.20	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.72	2.92	55:48	69.23	11.10
Alex Tuch	WSH	RW	93.8%	0.86	0.80	0.80	1.60	4.70	2.00	2.30	1.20	0.13	0.14	0.27	0.06	0.03	0.09	0.12	1.54	1.86	-	0.81	1.84	38:30	49.16	16.00
Vincent Desharnais	WSH	D	4.2%	0.85	0.00	0.20	0.30	1.10	4.40	3.20	1.90	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.44	1.88	34:54	41.43	5.60
Cole Hutson	WSH	D	87.4%	0.85	0.30	1.00	1.30	3.60	2.20	1.60	1.30	0.07	0.27	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.00	-	0.53	2.01	38:30	46.03	11.20
Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	98.2%	0.84	0.80	1.80	2.50	7.70	3.80	2.10	0.60	0.23	0.58	0.81	0.04	0.03	0.07	0.06	21.64	18.97	53.3%	1.04	3.28	60:48	73.18	22.10
Aliaksei Protas	WSH	LW	52.3%	0.83	0.70	0.80	1.50	3.80	0.80	1.10	0.50	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.08	0.10	0.76	0.86	-	0.55	1.74	34:18	42.60	12.60
Tom Wilson	WSH	RW	94.2%	0.82	0.80	0.90	1.70	4.00	6.00	1.80	2.70	0.17	0.20	0.38	0.05	0.03	0.08	0.12	0.37	0.45	-	0.57	1.98	38:24	46.17	15.30
J.T. Miller	NYR	C	90.1%	0.80	0.70	1.80	2.50	5.80	5.60	1.50	1.80	0.18	0.54	0.72	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.05	24.44	17.52	58.2%	0.88	3.08	57:30	74.65	20.00
Mike Matheson	MTL	D	78.8%	0.80	0.20	0.90	1.10	4.70	2.20	5.20	1.50	0.01	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	-	1.07	3.82	73:54	80.44	13.80
Boone Jenner	WSH	C	23.1%	0.80	0.50	0.60	1.10	4.20	4.40	2.10	1.10	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.06	0.07	8.48	7.06	54.6%	0.51	1.64	33:06	42.46	11.80
Charlie McAvoy	BOS	D	95.5%	0.76	0.40	1.70	2.10	5.00	3.70	5.30	2.50	0.13	0.62	0.75	0.01	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-	1.08	3.75	72:48	81.50	20.70
Gabriel Perreault	NYR	RW	62.7%	0.74	0.80	1.00	1.80	5.00	1.50	1.30	0.40	0.12	0.19	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.06	0.31	0.38	-	0.69	2.26	48:30	62.42	16.00
Alexis Lafreniere	NYR	RW	89.8%	0.73	1.50	1.30	2.70	7.10	3.40	1.20	0.90	0.44	0.35	0.80	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.12	0.73	0.93	-	0.94	2.59	53:42	64.96	23.40
Dylan Strome	WSH	C	81.0%	0.73	0.60	1.30	1.80	3.30	0.40	1.40	0.90	0.14	0.38	0.52	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.09	17.92	14.52	55.2%	0.51	1.76	35:18	40.92	14.10
Nikita Zadorov	BOS	D	41.8%	0.73	0.10	0.70	0.80	4.20	7.80	3.90	4.80	0.00	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.90	3.34	61:42	75.50	12.60
Justin Holl	WSH	D	0.1%	0.73	0.00	0.30	0.30	1.20	2.50	2.50	0.90	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.43	1.54	29:42	36.13	4.60
Hampus Lindholm	BOS	D	19.3%	0.72	0.20	1.00	1.20	4.10	0.80	3.60	1.40	0.04	0.20	0.23	0.01	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	1.05	3.41	64:00	77.88	14.10
Will Cuylle	NYR	LW	64.5%	0.71	0.90	0.80	1.70	6.70	12.00	1.70	1.70	0.14	0.16	0.30	0.06	0.02	0.08	0.07	2.01	2.20	-	0.62	2.23	47:12	64.80	17.60
Pierre-Luc Dubois	WSH	C	46.9%	0.71	0.50	1.00	1.50	3.00	1.90	1.20	1.80	0.12	0.25	0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	13.44	14.18	48.7%	0.50	1.58	34:12	42.54	12.30
Jordan Kyrou	WSH	RW	69.0%	0.70	0.70	0.90	1.60	4.70	0.60	0.80	0.40	0.13	0.21	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.25	0.31	-	0.56	1.69	32:36	41.33	13.50
Noah Dobson	MTL	D	93.8%	0.70	0.40	1.20	1.60	6.50	2.90	5.30	1.30	0.07	0.22	0.29	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.00	-	1.12	3.67	68:12	81.67	17.70
Pavel Dorofeyev	NYR	RW	90.9%	0.70	0.90	0.80	1.70	8.80	1.40	1.10	0.70	0.27	0.26	0.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.07	0.08	-	0.79	2.44	51:24	58.43	18.40
Justin Sourdif	WSH	C	15.4%	0.69	0.40	0.60	1.00	2.50	3.00	1.00	1.10	0.02	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.06	7.85	8.68	47.5%	0.45	1.42	29:00	38.24	9.00
Noah Laba	NYR	C	9.7%	0.68	0.20	0.60	0.90	3.30	5.00	1.70	1.40	0.01	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.02	14.15	13.78	50.7%	0.63	2.04	41:54	60.70	9.20
Kaiden Guhle	MTL	D	17.9%	0.67	0.20	0.70	0.90	3.70	6.30	4.80	2.20	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	-	1.03	3.13	61:24	71.25	12.50
Lane Hutson	MTL	D	99.0%	0.67	0.30	2.30	2.70	5.20	1.10	4.10	1.10	0.11	0.86	0.97	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.00	-	1.21	3.74	72:06	73.39	22.00
Alex Ovechkin	WSH	LW	92.2%	0.67	0.80	0.80	1.60	5.20	3.50	0.40	0.50	0.24	0.26	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.04	0.05	-	0.46	1.61	34:24	39.49	14.10
Anthony Beauvillier	WSH	RW	4.1%	0.67	0.40	0.30	0.70	3.40	2.60	1.10	0.40	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.06	0.76	0.86	-	0.42	1.24	27:42	36.14	8.30
Eeli Tolvanen	NYR	LW	40.5%	0.67	0.70	0.60	1.20	4.90	6.20	3.00	0.90	0.11	0.11	0.21	0.03	0.01	0.04	0.05	0.11	0.13	-	0.64	1.99	44:00	61.93	14.80
Alberts Smits	NYR	D	33.0%	0.66	0.10	0.30	0.40	2.00	2.10	2.40	1.10	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.59	2.12	40:00	50.05	6.30
Alexandre Carrier	MTL	D	13.3%	0.65	0.20	0.60	0.80	2.70	2.10	5.40	1.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	-	0.89	2.87	59:42	73.79	11.30
William Borgen	BOS	D	5.7%	0.65	0.20	0.50	0.70	2.30	5.60	4.00	1.40	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.81	2.67	54:06	71.39	11.80
Frederic Brunet	BOS	D	6.5%	0.62	0.10	0.20	0.30	3.10	2.90	2.70	0.60	0.02	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.78	3.03	57:36	67.52	7.20
Ilya Protas	WSH	LW	40.4%	0.62	0.40	0.60	1.00	2.90	1.30	1.00	0.70	0.08	0.13	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	8.34	10.26	44.8%	0.46	1.45	28:48	35.41	8.10
Adam Engstrom	MTL	D	6.4%	0.61	0.10	0.40	0.50	2.90	1.40	2.00	0.90	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.79	2.97	56:36	76.04	6.80
David Pastrnak	BOS	RW	99.8%	0.61	1.30	2.40	3.70	11.10	3.50	0.90	1.60	0.35	0.72	1.07	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.16	0.24	0.29	-	0.98	3.96	60:24	62.25	30.60
Mason Lohrei	BOS	D	26.1%	0.60	0.40	0.70	1.20	3.20	0.90	3.40	0.60	0.08	0.15	0.24	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.00	-	0.82	2.91	54:30	66.33	12.30
Tye Kartye	NYR	LW	8.1%	0.60	0.50	0.80	1.30	3.70	8.40	1.50	1.70	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.05	0.03	0.08	0.04	0.32	0.40	-	0.55	1.60	36:18	52.13	11.10
Connor Clifton	BOS	D	6.5%	0.60	0.10	0.40	0.50	2.50	8.50	3.90	2.30	0.01	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.79	2.58	50:30	59.16	8.10
Ryan Leonard	WSH	RW	67.2%	0.59	0.70	0.90	1.60	4.20	4.00	0.70	1.60	0.17	0.23	0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.11	0.13	-	0.44	1.45	28:00	35.06	13.70
Nick Suzuki	MTL	C	99.9%	0.57	1.20	2.30	3.60	7.10	2.80	2.00	0.80	0.32	0.77	1.09	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.21	26.76	26.02	50.7%	1.02	3.27	62:54	67.10	28.40
Oliver Bjorkstrand	NYR	RW	17.0%	0.57	0.60	0.60	1.20	4.50	2.50	1.50	0.40	0.13	0.13	0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.27	0.33	-	0.64	1.76	39:06	48.85	12.00
Pavel Zacha	BOS	C	69.1%	0.57	0.80	1.00	1.80	4.60	2.10	1.10	1.00	0.18	0.25	0.43	0.03	0.02	0.05	0.10	19.37	17.90	52.0%	0.93	2.57	54:24	63.08	15.80
Drew Doughty	LAK	D	19.5%	0.56	0.20	0.80	1.00	3.60	2.30	3.40	1.90	0.03	0.13	0.16	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	-	0.94	3.59	70:06	81.67	11.50
Elias Lindholm	BOS	C	41.0%	0.55	0.60	1.10	1.70	4.70	2.00	2.20	1.10	0.12	0.26	0.38	0.03	0.02	0.05	0.07	28.57	22.84	55.6%	0.76	2.56	52:42	65.80	15.30
Mikey Anderson	LAK	D	7.4%	0.54	0.10	0.60	0.70	2.70	4.20	4.90	0.90	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.79	3.15	63:24	74.11	10.70
Phillip Danault	MTL	C	4.9%	0.54	0.30	0.70	1.00	3.90	2.50	1.50	0.70	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.05	22.56	19.48	53.7%	0.71	2.33	49:54	64.69	10.20
John-Jason Peterka	BOS	RW	74.0%	0.53	0.80	1.20	2.10	5.90	1.00	0.80	0.90	0.15	0.23	0.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.30	0.37	-	0.81	2.64	50:18	61.41	17.40
T.J. Hughes	COL	RW	22.6%	0.53	0.50	0.70	1.20	4.90	3.00	1.30	1.00	0.24	0.34	0.58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	5.54	6.01	-	0.67	2.01	42:18	45.95	11.80
Morgan Geekie	BOS	LW	94.0%	0.53	1.10	1.40	2.50	5.60	4.40	1.30	0.80	0.28	0.40	0.68	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.13	3.73	4.20	-	0.80	2.59	52:00	56.36	20.20
Casey Mittelstadt	BOS	LW	12.3%	0.51	0.70	0.80	1.50	3.60	0.70	1.10	0.70	0.10	0.12	0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	6.43	6.95	48.1%	0.77	2.53	46:42	56.81	12.20
Ethen Frank	WSH	RW	0.1%	0.51	0.40	0.40	0.80	2.50	1.80	1.40	0.60	0.07	0.08	0.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.08	0.10	-	0.36	1.10	23:30	32.05	8.60
James Hagens	BOS	C	50.8%	0.51	0.60	0.90	1.60	5.30	1.50	1.60	0.80	0.05	0.08	0.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.93	0.91	-	0.76	2.38	45:00	54.05	14.70
Fraser Minten	BOS	C	45.7%	0.51	1.00	0.90	1.80	5.70	4.40	1.50	0.70	0.13	0.12	0.25	0.06	0.03	0.09	0.12	14.38	15.52	48.1%	0.81	2.09	45:54	58.05	18.10
Jake Evans	MTL	C	4.9%	0.50	0.40	0.60	0.90	3.20	3.80	2.00	0.80	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.04	0.08	0.07	21.25	18.19	53.9%	0.79	2.15	46:06	59.46	9.10
Cole Caufield	MTL	LW	99.9%	0.49	1.60	1.20	2.80	10.10	2.00	0.80	0.60	0.47	0.41	0.88	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.28	0.32	0.39	-	0.85	2.50	55:30	62.86	26.30
Cody Ceci	LAK	D	0.2%	0.49	0.00	0.40	0.50	2.30	1.40	3.70	0.50	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.74	2.99	58:00	70.94	7.50
Juraj Slafkovsky	MTL	RW	97.5%	0.49	0.90	1.60	2.50	7.30	4.50	2.20	1.60	0.27	0.52	0.79	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.16	0.88	1.20	-	0.88	2.87	55:12	60.51	21.70
Cole Beaudoin	NYR	C	14.4%	0.48	0.30	0.50	0.80	3.10	2.30	1.00	0.90	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	13.34	13.35	50.0%	0.49	1.56	29:30	40.99	7.90
Joel Edmundson	LAK	D	3.2%	0.48	0.10	0.40	0.50	3.50	3.00	3.60	0.90	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.75	2.96	56:36	73.38	9.80
Marat Khusnutdinov	BOS	LW	10.5%	0.47	0.50	0.60	1.10	3.10	1.90	1.40	0.50	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.06	0.06	3.30	3.58	-	0.64	1.99	40:24	52.49	11.00
Brian Dumoulin	LAK	D	0.2%	0.47	0.10	0.40	0.50	2.10	1.50	2.80	0.70	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.80	3.18	55:36	68.59	6.60
Alex Newhook	MTL	LW	24.6%	0.47	0.70	0.80	1.50	4.40	3.40	1.30	0.80	0.10	0.13	0.23	0.05	0.03	0.07	0.12	11.50	11.36	50.3%	0.68	2.18	46:12	59.17	12.10
Josh Anderson	MTL	RW	11.1%	0.46	0.60	0.40	1.00	4.00	5.70	1.20	3.10	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.05	0.02	0.07	0.11	0.66	0.69	-	0.64	1.99	42:42	56.96	10.10
Dylan McIlrath	WSH	D	0.1%	0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.70	4.20	0.60	1.80	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.26	0.94	18:18	25.12	0.90
Matthew Poitras	BOS	C	12.0%	0.44	0.40	0.50	0.90	4.00	1.20	0.90	0.90	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05	6.63	6.87	49.1%	0.60	1.90	38:48	50.54	8.60
Jaroslav Chmelar	NYR	RW	0.1%	0.44	0.30	0.20	0.50	2.40	5.70	1.40	1.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.14	0.17	-	0.45	1.22	27:06	38.27	5.80
Chris Kreider	MTL	LW	61.6%	0.44	0.90	1.10	1.90	5.30	3.40	0.90	0.90	0.27	0.35	0.62	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.16	0.86	1.06	-	0.77	2.30	50:36	63.29	15.60
Artemi Panarin	LAK	LW	97.4%	0.43	1.20	1.80	3.00	8.60	0.70	0.40	0.80	0.33	0.58	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.19	0.03	0.03	-	0.91	3.21	61:30	66.02	22.80
Quinton Byfield	LAK	C	82.1%	0.43	0.90	1.20	2.10	6.90	2.30	1.30	1.40	0.21	0.29	0.50	0.03	0.02	0.05	0.15	19.55	21.70	47.4%	1.24	2.90	58:54	68.86	18.30
Adrian Kempe	LAK	RW	96.0%	0.42	1.10	1.30	2.40	8.70	4.40	1.10	1.60	0.28	0.38	0.66	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.18	2.06	2.62	-	0.95	2.96	58:54	67.09	22.50
Mark Kastelic	BOS	C	16.1%	0.42	0.30	0.80	1.00	3.20	7.50	2.30	3.50	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.06	0.04	10.17	7.78	56.7%	0.67	1.65	35:18	49.39	10.60
Trevor Moore	LAK	LW	8.8%	0.42	0.60	0.70	1.30	6.80	2.40	1.60	0.40	0.03	0.05	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.07	0.10	0.29	0.37	-	0.81	2.45	50:54	68.13	14.40

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

What is plus/minus? A player gets +1 when he is on the ice for an even-strength or shorthanded goal for, and -1 for one against. Power-play goals do not count.

How we project it

- Team differential: projected goals for (its skaters' goals) and LineupExperts' goals against (its goalies' goals against), minus the share scored or allowed on the power play. Goals against are scaled league-wide so the league's +/- sums to about zero (goalie goals against leave out empty-netters). - Player share: his projected even-strength plus penalty-kill minutes divided by the team's non-power-play minutes. - +/- = games × share × team non-power-play goal differential per game.

No individual on-ice term. We tested adding each player's own on-ice goal differential and it never improved the projection, so it is not used.

Variance warning

a player's +/- correlates only about 0.3 from one season to the next.

💡

Pro Tip: Big-minute defensemen on strong teams project highest because they are on the ice for the most even-strength goals. Expect large swings around any projection.

Team-driven stat

Projected +/- follows the team's projected goal differential. Check next week's games for context.

Games Next Week

Two-Way Forwards

Selke-caliber forwards combine offensive production with responsible defense, making them +/- leaders. Target two-way centers on good teams.

Forwards Projections

Avoid Minus Matchups

Identify players in tough spots—stars facing elite opponents or playing for struggling teams may post negative +/- despite good individual stats.

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Frequently Asked Questions

We take the team's projected goal differential away from the power play (from the projected goals for and against) and give each player a share in proportion to his projected even-strength and penalty-kill minutes. There is no player-specific on-ice adjustment.

It is high-variance and mostly team-driven: year to year it correlates only about 0.3 for a player. In category leagues, rostering players from strong teams is the main lever.

In our projections, heavy-minute players, especially defensemen, on teams projected to outscore opponents at even strength lead the list.

In category leagues chasing +/-, yes. Even elite players on losing teams can accumulate negative +/- despite strong individual performances.

Projections by Category

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LW, C, RW players

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Peripheral Stats

SOG, hits, blocks, ice time, giveaways and shifts

Special Teams

Power-play and shorthanded goals, assists and points

Faceoff & Physical

Faceoffs won, lost and FO%, PIM, takeaways and +/-

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Starts, wins, losses, saves, SV% and GAA

Fantasy Points

Standard, DraftKings, and FanDuel

NHL Projected Plus/Minus Next Week

Sorted by Projected Plus Minus(Oct 19-25 (Week 4))

Skaters100 of 644

How we project it

Variance warning

Team-driven stat

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NHL Forward

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