NHL Projected Goals Against Average Next Week
Goals-against average is a standard goalie category in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. This page ranks goalies by projected GAA, lowest first: LineupExperts' projected goals against divided by our projected minutes, per 60. Only goalies with at least one projected start are ranked (five for the rest of the season) (Oct 5-11 (Week 2)). (Oct 5-11 (Week 2))
GAA = 60 × projected goals against ÷ projected minutes.
Goals against come from LineupExperts' projection for the goalie's projected starts.
Minutes are an Edgehalla estimate: projected starts × minutes per start (about 60, shrunk toward the league average for each goalie, so overtime and early hooks are included). When LineupExperts projects a goalie for far fewer shots per game than his team allows, his appearances are treated as partial games and his minutes scale down with them.
Ranking rule
goalies need at least one projected start (next week, this week, next week) or five (rest of season) to be ranked, so a one-period relief appearance cannot top the list.
Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.
Sorted by Projected Goaltending Goals Against Average(Oct 5-11 (Week 2))
54 playersGoalies54 of 54
| Player | Team | Pos | Rost% | GAA† ↑ | GS | W | L | OTL | SV | GA | SA | SV% | MIN† | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood | COL | G | 95.5% | 1.80 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.10 | 27.6 | 1.8 | 28.9 | 95.4% | 59:55 | 15.00 |
| Karel Vejmelka | UTA | G | 98.3% | 2.01 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 0.30 | 84.4 | 6.0 | 92.0 | 91.7% | 179:31 | 40.70 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | COL | G | 89.9% | 2.10 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 83.1 | 6.3 | 87.6 | 94.9% | 179:54 | 42.50 |
| Ilya Sorokin | NYI | G | 96.9% | 2.10 | 3.00 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 0.30 | 72.3 | 6.3 | 75.1 | 96.2% | 179:41 | 33.60 |
| Jesper Wallstedt | MIN | G | 94.1% | 2.13 | 3.00 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 0.30 | 73.2 | 6.4 | 78.8 | 92.9% | 179:57 | 33.40 |
| Linus Ullmark | OTT | G | 81.1% | 2.14 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.10 | 0.30 | 69.1 | 6.4 | 72.3 | 95.5% | 179:31 | 32.90 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TB | G | 99.0% | 2.24 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.30 | 0.20 | 79.1 | 6.7 | 84.8 | 93.3% | 179:29 | 38.50 |
| Jakub Dobes | MON | G | 96.1% | 2.30 | 3.00 | 1.80 | 1.30 | 0.40 | 80.5 | 6.9 | 84.0 | 95.9% | 179:53 | 37.00 |
| Daniel Vladar | PHI | G | 76.0% | 2.31 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 54.2 | 4.6 | 58.0 | 93.5% | 119:43 | 24.20 |
| Joseph Woll | PHI | G | 33.1% | 2.34 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 1.30 | 0.40 | 84.7 | 7.0 | 90.3 | 93.7% | 179:43 | 37.60 |
| Spencer Knight | CHI | G | 78.7% | 2.35 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.20 | 56.3 | 4.7 | 60.7 | 92.7% | 119:55 | 24.80 |
| Samuel Ersson | OTT | G | 9.7% | 2.39 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 22.7 | 2.4 | 24.1 | 94.3% | 60:10 | 9.60 |
| Sam Montembeault | MON | G | 14.8% | 2.40 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 26.5 | 2.4 | 28.4 | 93.3% | 60:01 | 11.70 |
| Leevi Merilainen | VAN | G | 12.8% | 2.44 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.10 | 0.10 | 43.6 | 4.9 | 49.0 | 88.9% | 120:30 | 15.20 |
| Brandon Bussi | CAR | G | 96.0% | 2.45 | 2.00 | 1.30 | 0.70 | 0.20 | 40.1 | 4.9 | 44.4 | 90.1% | 120:07 | 16.10 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic | SJ | G | 17.6% | 2.48 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.10 | 27.2 | 2.5 | 30.0 | 90.7% | 60:23 | 11.10 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | CAR | G | 45.4% | 2.50 | 3.00 | 1.90 | 1.10 | 0.20 | 60.4 | 7.5 | 67.4 | 89.7% | 179:55 | 24.30 |
| Anton Forsberg | LA | G | 25.5% | 2.54 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.30 | 52.7 | 5.1 | 57.7 | 91.3% | 120:34 | 21.80 |
| Sebastian Cossa | UTA | G | 32.2% | 2.55 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 60.3 | 5.1 | 68.1 | 88.6% | 119:57 | 26.50 |
| Joel Hofer | STL | G | 79.8% | 2.60 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 21.2 | 2.6 | 24.2 | 87.5% | 60:02 | 8.60 |
| Anthony Stolarz | TOR | G | 30.0% | 2.61 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 27.6 | 2.6 | 30.9 | 89.5% | 59:45 | 11.90 |
| Kevin Lankinen | VAN | G | 31.7% | 2.61 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 28.7 | 2.6 | 31.5 | 91.1% | 59:40 | 11.60 |
| Darcy Kuemper | LA | G | 58.0% | 2.66 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 53.7 | 5.3 | 59.2 | 90.6% | 119:32 | 21.90 |
| Yaroslav Askarov | SJ | G | 77.4% | 2.68 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 0.30 | 82.3 | 8.0 | 90.5 | 90.9% | 178:52 | 32.80 |
| Jet Greaves | CLB | G | 85.6% | 2.69 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 54.3 | 5.4 | 61.8 | 87.9% | 120:15 | 22.00 |
| Arturs Silovs | PIT | G | 45.1% | 2.73 | 4.00 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 0.40 | 99.9 | 10.9 | 110.6 | 90.3% | 239:37 | 40.10 |
| Joey Daccord | SEA | G | 53.8% | 2.76 | 2.00 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 50.7 | 5.5 | 54.2 | 93.6% | 119:41 | 19.90 |
| Alex Lyon | BUF | G | 33.4% | 2.81 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 30.4 | 2.8 | 33.0 | 92.2% | 59:53 | 12.90 |
| Juuse Saros | NSH | G | 84.4% | 2.85 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 0.20 | 75.6 | 8.5 | 84.5 | 89.5% | 179:13 | 27.70 |
| Jeremy Swayman | BOS | G | 96.9% | 2.85 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 55.5 | 5.7 | 61.8 | 89.8% | 119:55 | 22.70 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | TOR | G | 88.1% | 2.86 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 54.6 | 5.7 | 61.6 | 88.6% | 119:43 | 21.00 |
| Logan Thompson | WAS | G | 99.5% | 2.87 | 3.00 | 1.70 | 1.10 | 0.30 | 81.6 | 8.6 | 92.6 | 88.1% | 179:44 | 32.60 |
| Lukas Dostal | ANA | G | 80.7% | 2.97 | 3.00 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 0.30 | 86.6 | 8.9 | 95.6 | 90.5% | 179:49 | 34.30 |
| Adin Hill | LV | G | 23.6% | 3.01 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 27.3 | 3.0 | 30.5 | 89.6% | 59:44 | 10.90 |
| Carter Hart | LV | G | 86.6% | 3.04 | 3.00 | 1.80 | 1.30 | 0.30 | 81.8 | 9.1 | 91.2 | 89.7% | 179:29 | 31.20 |
| Casey DeSmith | DAL | G | 17.4% | 3.04 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 52.2 | 6.1 | 60.9 | 85.7% | 120:13 | 18.50 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | BUF | G | 76.8% | 3.07 | 3.00 | 1.90 | 1.40 | 0.30 | 87.5 | 9.2 | 96.1 | 91.0% | 179:42 | 35.00 |
| Igor Shesterkin | NYR | G | 93.3% | 3.07 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.30 | 72.4 | 9.2 | 83.9 | 86.3% | 179:35 | 23.40 |
| Akira Schmid | FLA | G | 27.8% | 3.08 | 2.00 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 0.30 | 60.3 | 6.2 | 66.9 | 90.0% | 120:49 | 23.50 |
| Michael Dipietro | BOS | G | 15.4% | 3.15 | 2.00 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.20 | 53.7 | 6.3 | 59.7 | 90.0% | 119:57 | 19.00 |
| Jacob Markstrom | FLA | G | 89.1% | 3.15 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 57.3 | 6.3 | 63.4 | 90.4% | 119:54 | 22.60 |
| Jake Oettinger | DAL | G | 99.0% | 3.16 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.20 | 51.8 | 6.3 | 60.8 | 85.2% | 119:42 | 17.90 |
| John Gibson | DET | G | 71.5% | 3.19 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 1.70 | 0.30 | 75.0 | 9.5 | 84.8 | 88.5% | 178:35 | 23.90 |
| Philipp Grubauer | SEA | G | 13.6% | 3.19 | 2.00 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 55.0 | 6.4 | 59.7 | 92.1% | 120:16 | 19.70 |
| Jordan Binnington | STL | G | 31.2% | 3.20 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 42.0 | 6.4 | 48.1 | 87.2% | 119:49 | 11.40 |
| Jake Allen | NJ | G | 54.0% | 3.30 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 25.1 | 3.3 | 30.2 | 83.1% | 60:03 | 7.70 |
| Dylan Garand | NYR | G | 13.0% | 3.33 | 2.00 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 29.1 | 4.0 | 33.8 | 86.1% | 72:10 | 9.50 |
| Devin Cooley | CGY | G | 13.7% | 3.34 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.20 | 46.7 | 6.7 | 58.3 | 80.1% | 120:29 | 12.70 |
| Charlie Lindgren | WAS | G | 11.4% | 3.35 | 2.00 | 0.90 | 1.10 | 0.20 | 53.1 | 6.7 | 61.0 | 87.1% | 120:06 | 16.90 |
| Devon Levi | EDM | G | 40.8% | 3.60 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 41.9 | 7.2 | 49.5 | 84.6% | 119:55 | 8.40 |
| Dustin Wolf | CGY | G | 66.0% | 3.62 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.20 | 48.0 | 7.2 | 59.5 | 80.7% | 119:26 | 11.80 |
| Nico Daws | NJ | G | 16.9% | 3.70 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 52.9 | 7.4 | 63.9 | 82.8% | 119:57 | 14.10 |
| Daniil Tarasov | DET | G | 10.6% | 3.80 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.10 | 25.5 | 3.8 | 29.1 | 87.9% | 60:02 | 6.40 |
| Tristan Jarry | EDM | G | 9.4% | 3.80 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 19.8 | 3.8 | 23.6 | 84.1% | 60:01 | 3.00 |
† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works
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