NHL Projected Game-Winning Goals Next Week

Game-winning goals count in some Yahoo and ESPN category leagues. There is no individual game-winning-goal skill: a player's share of his goals that turn out to be winners barely repeats from one season to the next (correlation about 0.09). So this projection is simply projected goals times how many of his team's goals are expected to be game-winners, which comes from the team's projected wins. The best goal scorers on teams projected to win lead the list (Oct 5-11 (Week 2)). (Oct 5-11 (Week 2))

Today This Week Next Week Rest of Season

Week 2: Oct 5 - Oct 11(Upcoming)

Sunday, October 4, 2026

Updated: 4:35 PM UTC(hourly)

5 games • 712 players

What counts as a GWG

the goal that puts the winning team one ahead of the loser's final total (the loser's final score + 1). Shootout winners are not game-winning goals.

The model

every win outside the shootout has exactly one game-winning goal. For each team we take its goalies' projected wins, remove the league's share of wins decided in a shootout, and divide by the team's projected goals. That gives the share of the team's goals expected to be game-winners. Each player's projected GWG is his projected goals times that share.

Why no player skill

across seasons a player's game-winners per goal correlate at only about 0.09 year to year: it is luck and team context, not a repeatable skill. Projections that rank "clutch" players higher would be chasing noise.

Track record

in our 2025-26 backtest the projection beat a naive current-season rate at every cutoff, and the top three deciles landed within 6% of the actual totals.

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Pro Tip: GWG follows goals and team wins. If you need the category, prioritise top goal scorers on strong teams rather than players with a hot GWG streak.

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

How the model works

Sorted by Projected Game Winning Goals(Oct 5-11 (Week 2))

658 players

Show

Skaters100 of 658

Player	Team	Pos	Rost%	GWG^† ↓	G	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPG^†	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHG^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	FOW^†	FOL^†	FO%^†	TK^†	GV^†	+/-^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
Sebastian Aho	CAR	C	98.8%	0.39	1.90	2.90	4.80	12.80	2.70	1.10	2.10	0.64	1.12	1.76	0.09	0.06	0.15	31.63	29.26	51.9%	1.32	4.26	0.59	80:42	92.53	39.80
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	100.0%	0.37	1.90	3.60	5.50	14.00	2.30	1.70	1.40	0.54	1.12	1.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	26.08	25.59	50.5%	1.04	4.01	1.80	67:00	71.34	44.00
Tage Thompson	BUF	C	99.9%	0.37	1.30	1.10	2.40	8.70	2.70	1.50	1.40	0.37	0.37	0.74	0.01	0.00	0.01	14.36	16.80	46.1%	0.93	2.73	-0.44	57:18	69.21	23.20
Sam Reinhart	FLA	RW	99.5%	0.34	1.00	0.80	1.80	4.80	1.90	1.20	0.40	0.36	0.32	0.68	0.04	0.01	0.05	3.15	4.02	44.0%	0.62	1.93	-0.26	42:12	48.35	16.20
Cole Caufield	MON	LW	99.9%	0.34	1.30	1.00	2.20	8.90	2.40	0.90	0.70	0.35	0.30	0.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.34	0.40	-	0.86	2.50	0.16	54:42	62.61	22.70
Dylan Guenther	UTA	RW	99.2%	0.32	1.80	1.50	3.30	9.10	2.20	1.40	0.80	0.55	0.47	1.02	0.01	0.00	0.02	1.00	1.20	-	0.83	2.61	1.08	51:54	64.66	29.90
Andrei Svechnikov	CAR	LW	97.0%	0.31	1.50	2.50	4.00	13.00	8.00	1.10	2.80	0.54	1.03	1.57	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.47	0.56	-	1.15	3.59	0.49	69:18	82.13	34.30
David Pastrnak	BOS	RW	99.8%	0.30	1.20	2.20	3.40	12.20	2.20	1.00	1.70	0.29	0.62	0.90	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.24	0.28	-	1.06	3.70	-0.21	61:06	64.17	30.40
Martin Necas	COL	RW	100.0%	0.29	1.50	2.70	4.30	8.80	3.30	1.00	1.00	0.43	0.87	1.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.91	0.96	-	0.98	3.29	1.59	60:12	63.53	32.50
Jack Eichel	LV	C	98.9%	0.29	1.30	2.30	3.50	10.30	1.30	1.60	0.70	0.34	0.86	1.19	0.05	0.03	0.08	23.19	25.10	48.0%	1.11	3.48	-0.40	63:24	68.52	31.80
Kirill Kaprizov	MIN	LW	98.2%	0.28	1.80	1.60	3.40	8.40	2.00	1.30	1.40	0.56	0.51	1.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.12	-	1.02	3.54	0.41	67:00	63.54	30.10
Morgan Geekie	BOS	LW	95.9%	0.27	1.10	1.00	2.10	7.00	3.60	1.10	1.00	0.27	0.26	0.52	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.79	4.21	-	0.85	2.55	-0.17	51:42	56.97	19.70
Jason Robertson	DAL	LW	99.6%	0.27	1.50	2.10	3.60	8.80	2.10	1.00	1.00	0.53	0.84	1.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.14	-	0.89	3.02	-0.24	57:06	60.01	29.40
Cutter Gauthier	ANA	LW	98.2%	0.27	1.90	1.40	3.20	11.10	2.60	1.20	1.20	0.48	0.37	0.85	0.02	0.01	0.03	2.89	3.28	-	0.78	2.50	0.41	47:18	57.42	29.40
Nikolaj Ehlers	CAR	LW	92.9%	0.27	1.30	2.40	3.70	12.80	1.30	1.30	0.70	0.46	0.96	1.43	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.61	0.76	-	1.06	3.38	0.47	66:24	77.65	33.60
Jackson Blake	CAR	RW	68.5%	0.27	1.30	2.00	3.30	10.60	0.70	1.80	1.40	0.49	0.86	1.35	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.31	0.38	-	1.10	3.38	0.43	63:12	71.20	29.20
Tim Stutzle	OTT	C	99.5%	0.27	1.30	2.20	3.50	11.00	5.80	1.90	1.40	0.36	0.73	1.09	0.08	0.05	0.13	15.08	14.11	51.7%	1.37	4.07	0.40	80:42	101.60	31.90
Pavel Dorofeyev	NYR	RW	92.5%	0.26	1.20	0.90	2.10	10.80	1.20	1.40	1.10	0.37	0.29	0.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.09	-	0.80	2.38	-0.14	50:54	58.04	23.40
Nikita Kucherov	TB	RW	99.9%	0.26	1.20	2.30	3.60	11.10	1.00	1.10	1.20	0.44	1.03	1.47	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.06	-	1.02	3.71	0.25	63:06	66.31	33.00
Artturi Lehkonen	COL	LW	57.0%	0.26	1.30	1.20	2.50	6.60	2.20	1.80	0.90	0.27	0.24	0.51	0.06	0.03	0.08	0.34	0.43	-	0.86	2.70	1.68	58:24	71.07	23.10
Alex DeBrincat	DET	LW	99.7%	0.25	1.20	1.30	2.50	10.10	1.20	1.20	0.90	0.33	0.36	0.69	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.90	1.11	-	1.03	2.72	-0.79	54:36	63.35	24.30
Wyatt Johnston	DAL	C	99.9%	0.25	1.40	1.80	3.20	7.10	2.10	1.60	1.00	0.48	0.62	1.11	0.02	0.01	0.03	15.40	15.84	49.3%	0.93	2.69	-0.26	59:36	65.26	25.60
Owen Tippett	PHI	RW	78.0%	0.25	1.10	0.80	1.90	10.20	7.80	2.80	1.20	0.22	0.17	0.40	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.58	0.72	-	1.10	3.34	0.12	65:54	86.13	21.60
Porter Martone	PHI	RW	90.2%	0.25	1.10	1.30	2.40	9.70	5.70	1.20	2.30	0.21	0.27	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.47	0.56	-	1.09	3.60	0.12	66:54	83.25	26.40
Logan Stankoven	CAR	C	67.1%	0.25	1.20	1.50	2.70	10.40	2.40	1.20	0.70	0.28	0.38	0.66	0.03	0.01	0.04	17.23	20.66	45.5%	1.04	2.87	0.49	62:42	75.08	25.50
Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	99.9%	0.25	1.20	1.70	2.90	6.50	1.00	0.50	0.70	0.38	0.63	1.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	18.73	15.54	54.7%	0.70	2.43	-0.67	43:18	45.65	24.00
Macklin Celebrini	SJ	C	99.8%	0.24	1.70	2.80	4.40	10.00	1.40	2.40	1.70	0.45	0.94	1.39	0.03	0.02	0.05	22.25	23.24	48.9%	1.13	3.62	0.75	62:12	63.04	34.80
Leo Carlsson	ANA	C	94.2%	0.24	1.70	1.90	3.70	8.30	0.60	1.70	1.10	0.44	0.57	1.01	0.05	0.02	0.07	16.79	20.31	45.3%	0.92	2.64	0.45	53:06	62.83	29.30
Brandon Hagel	TB	LW	99.1%	0.24	1.10	1.50	2.60	10.40	1.50	1.60	1.70	0.29	0.44	0.74	0.05	0.03	0.09	1.06	1.33	-	1.12	3.09	0.27	61:48	71.56	27.20
Matthew Tkachuk	FLA	RW	99.7%	0.24	0.70	1.30	2.00	5.30	2.10	0.50	1.70	0.28	0.55	0.83	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.24	0.29	-	0.56	1.92	-0.21	36:36	40.87	16.10
Brady Tkachuk	FLA	LW	99.6%	0.24	0.70	0.80	1.50	6.90	5.10	0.60	2.20	0.24	0.31	0.55	0.00	0.00	0.01	5.10	4.63	52.4%	0.55	1.66	-0.22	35:36	48.44	15.40
Artemi Panarin	LA	LW	97.0%	0.24	0.70	1.10	1.80	5.10	0.30	0.40	0.40	0.20	0.37	0.57	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.02	-	0.64	2.15	0.10	40:42	44.53	13.80
Adrian Kempe	LA	RW	96.7%	0.24	0.70	0.80	1.40	5.20	3.10	0.90	1.30	0.19	0.23	0.42	0.01	0.01	0.01	1.24	1.65	-	0.60	1.85	0.09	38:48	44.50	13.90
Brock Nelson	COL	C	87.7%	0.24	1.20	1.40	2.60	6.80	1.40	2.20	1.00	0.33	0.45	0.78	0.07	0.04	0.11	25.26	25.20	50.1%	0.89	2.64	1.56	57:06	69.93	22.60
Nick Suzuki	MON	C	100.0%	0.23	0.90	1.90	2.80	6.40	3.10	2.40	0.90	0.23	0.62	0.84	0.02	0.01	0.03	26.18	25.35	50.8%	1.05	3.06	0.18	62:00	66.69	24.60
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	99.1%	0.23	1.30	1.20	2.60	11.80	1.90	3.30	0.60	0.32	0.32	0.65	0.04	0.01	0.05	27.92	20.86	57.2%	1.05	2.83	-0.43	62:12	70.90	28.80
Nick Schmaltz	UTA	RW	93.8%	0.23	1.30	1.60	2.90	6.50	0.70	1.90	0.50	0.33	0.43	0.76	0.06	0.03	0.09	14.14	15.60	47.5%	1.09	2.92	1.24	57:42	70.52	24.00
Alex Tuch	WAS	RW	93.9%	0.23	0.90	0.90	1.80	6.50	3.40	2.70	1.90	0.12	0.13	0.25	0.07	0.04	0.11	2.28	2.85	-	1.08	2.72	-0.09	57:30	75.69	20.00
Travis Konecny	PHI	RW	91.6%	0.23	1.00	1.70	2.70	8.10	5.20	2.00	3.10	0.20	0.40	0.60	0.02	0.02	0.04	1.50	1.88	-	1.17	4.12	0.15	78:18	97.82	23.00
Tyson Foerster	PHI	LW	41.7%	0.23	1.00	0.80	1.80	8.00	3.80	3.10	2.20	0.20	0.17	0.37	0.04	0.02	0.07	0.11	0.13	-	1.09	3.11	0.13	68:30	89.93	19.80
Tomas Hertl	LV	C	83.6%	0.22	1.00	0.90	1.90	7.60	4.40	1.60	1.10	0.34	0.31	0.65	0.00	0.00	0.01	24.08	18.83	56.1%	0.77	2.31	-0.31	50:18	57.14	19.20
Drake Batherson	OTT	RW	97.1%	0.22	1.10	1.80	2.90	10.10	5.50	1.10	1.30	0.32	0.57	0.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.59	0.66	-	1.15	3.42	0.35	71:12	93.69	26.10
Shane Pinto	OTT	C	37.1%	0.22	1.10	1.20	2.30	9.80	4.50	2.60	1.40	0.19	0.21	0.40	0.09	0.05	0.15	22.47	21.44	51.2%	1.22	3.43	0.39	73:12	102.18	24.00
Jared McCann	SEA	LW	71.6%	0.22	0.80	1.30	2.10	6.60	2.00	1.20	0.60	0.23	0.41	0.64	0.01	0.00	0.01	1.76	2.09	-	0.81	2.57	-0.50	50:42	65.34	18.30
Bobby McMann	SEA	LW	43.8%	0.22	0.80	0.60	1.50	7.10	6.10	1.10	1.30	0.11	0.09	0.20	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.39	0.39	-	0.71	2.15	-0.51	45:30	57.97	15.90
John-Jason Peterka	BOS	RW	75.5%	0.22	0.90	0.90	1.90	7.50	0.50	0.60	0.80	0.16	0.17	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35	0.43	-	0.79	2.75	-0.18	51:24	63.71	17.80
Bryan Rust	PIT	RW	85.3%	0.22	1.60	2.00	3.60	10.90	2.30	3.10	1.40	0.43	0.63	1.06	0.09	0.05	0.14	0.40	0.50	-	1.18	3.98	0.70	79:36	94.35	31.40
Jake Guentzel	TB	LW	100.0%	0.22	1.00	1.40	2.40	9.40	1.00	1.40	1.10	0.38	0.61	0.98	0.03	0.02	0.05	8.07	8.33	49.2%	0.99	2.92	0.24	60:54	65.51	25.10
Brayden Point	TB	C	95.2%	0.22	1.00	1.20	2.20	8.50	0.50	1.30	0.50	0.37	0.46	0.83	0.01	0.00	0.01	15.42	17.30	47.1%	0.87	2.66	0.23	57:36	64.17	23.00
Dylan Larkin	DET	C	96.3%	0.21	1.00	1.30	2.30	9.50	1.60	1.10	1.90	0.27	0.37	0.64	0.04	0.02	0.07	31.65	28.20	52.9%	0.95	2.93	-0.88	60:30	71.79	22.50
Rickard Rakell	PIT	LW	82.7%	0.21	1.50	1.80	3.30	10.80	5.30	2.40	1.00	0.41	0.57	0.98	0.04	0.02	0.07	4.71	6.53	-	1.27	3.62	0.67	76:42	88.68	29.70
Taylor Hall	CAR	LW	27.9%	0.21	1.00	1.60	2.60	8.70	2.70	1.40	1.70	0.23	0.39	0.62	0.01	0.00	0.01	1.38	1.63	-	0.98	3.06	0.47	60:06	74.96	22.20
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	99.9%	0.21	1.00	2.60	3.60	7.20	1.20	0.70	0.70	0.28	1.04	1.33	0.03	0.03	0.06	11.56	11.66	49.8%	0.73	2.52	-0.72	45:54	46.59	27.80
Bo Horvat	NYI	C	90.2%	0.21	1.30	1.10	2.50	9.50	3.10	1.60	1.30	0.40	0.37	0.76	0.06	0.03	0.10	28.75	23.23	55.3%	0.95	3.14	0.56	61:36	69.25	24.40
Dylan Cozens	OTT	C	90.3%	0.20	1.00	1.60	2.60	11.50	9.70	1.20	1.90	0.29	0.51	0.81	0.00	0.00	0.00	22.81	21.05	52.0%	1.07	3.20	0.33	68:24	92.03	25.90
Trevor Zegras	PHI	LW	85.7%	0.20	0.90	1.60	2.50	7.50	2.10	1.50	2.80	0.21	0.40	0.61	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.87	11.21	41.3%	1.14	3.69	0.13	72:18	84.97	21.30
Matvei Michkov	PHI	RW	85.6%	0.20	0.90	1.40	2.30	8.10	1.50	1.30	3.00	0.19	0.32	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.53	0.63	-	1.04	3.41	0.11	62:12	80.96	19.60
Mark Stone	LV	RW	93.4%	0.20	0.90	1.70	2.70	6.00	2.00	1.70	0.60	0.26	0.57	0.82	0.03	0.02	0.05	0.30	0.37	-	0.99	2.92	-0.37	58:06	65.08	23.50
Mitch Marner	LV	RW	98.8%	0.20	0.90	2.10	3.00	6.10	1.20	1.40	0.80	0.23	0.70	0.93	0.04	0.04	0.08	4.48	6.00	42.7%	1.15	3.40	-0.40	62:42	68.45	24.20
Quinton Byfield	LA	C	86.1%	0.20	0.60	0.70	1.30	4.10	1.80	1.20	1.10	0.13	0.17	0.31	0.02	0.02	0.04	12.49	14.32	46.6%	0.79	1.89	0.10	38:54	46.37	11.70
Alex Ovechkin	WAS	LW	96.2%	0.20	0.80	0.90	1.70	7.40	5.50	0.50	0.80	0.26	0.32	0.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07	0.09	-	0.74	2.51	-0.07	52:12	60.36	17.30
Tom Wilson	WAS	RW	94.3%	0.20	0.80	0.90	1.70	5.50	9.30	2.10	4.40	0.19	0.22	0.41	0.05	0.03	0.08	0.64	0.78	-	0.88	2.95	-0.08	57:06	68.95	17.90
Aliaksei Protas	WAS	LW	59.3%	0.20	0.80	0.90	1.60	5.50	1.40	1.30	0.90	0.05	0.06	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.10	1.11	1.31	-	0.85	2.62	-0.08	51:48	65.42	16.30
Matthew Boldy	MIN	RW	99.5%	0.20	1.30	1.40	2.80	8.00	2.30	2.50	1.80	0.41	0.51	0.93	0.05	0.02	0.07	2.17	2.63	-	1.07	3.13	0.38	62:12	61.81	25.90
Mikko Rantanen	DAL	RW	98.7%	0.20	1.10	2.50	3.60	5.90	2.20	1.20	2.70	0.36	1.00	1.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.59	2.91	-	1.09	3.26	-0.27	63:30	65.94	25.80
Roope Hintz	DAL	C	84.1%	0.20	1.10	1.60	2.70	5.70	3.40	1.00	1.00	0.34	0.54	0.88	0.02	0.01	0.02	21.14	17.35	54.9%	0.75	2.49	-0.22	51:12	63.68	22.20
Jack Quinn	BUF	RW	44.9%	0.20	0.70	0.80	1.50	6.10	1.60	1.00	0.60	0.19	0.23	0.42	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.19	0.23	-	0.70	2.35	-0.36	46:42	59.48	14.40
Jiri Kulich	BUF	C	25.7%	0.20	0.70	0.60	1.30	5.00	1.80	1.90	0.80	0.10	0.09	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.26	16.51	46.3%	0.70	2.15	-0.38	44:36	64.49	12.50
Josh Doan	BUF	RW	61.4%	0.20	0.70	0.90	1.60	5.50	2.70	1.30	0.90	0.22	0.29	0.51	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.66	0.82	-	0.90	2.24	-0.34	45:48	59.97	15.90
Mika Zibanejad	NYR	C	98.3%	0.20	0.90	1.50	2.30	9.30	3.30	1.90	0.80	0.25	0.46	0.71	0.04	0.03	0.07	20.90	18.79	52.7%	1.06	3.22	-0.17	59:48	72.76	21.70
William Nylander	TOR	RW	99.1%	0.20	1.10	1.40	2.60	9.00	0.60	1.00	0.60	0.28	0.41	0.68	0.01	0.00	0.01	1.82	2.27	-	0.99	2.93	-0.41	58:30	67.20	23.00
Gabriel Landeskog	COL	LW	50.2%	0.20	1.00	1.40	2.30	6.70	4.60	1.80	2.30	0.24	0.35	0.59	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.23	6.23	53.7%	0.80	2.38	1.39	50:36	61.46	21.10
Nazem Kadri	COL	C	70.5%	0.20	1.00	1.70	2.70	8.60	2.10	1.40	1.50	0.24	0.52	0.77	0.00	0.00	0.00	19.40	21.43	47.5%	0.89	2.80	1.56	56:54	67.42	22.40
Cale Makar	COL	D	99.8%	0.20	1.00	3.00	4.00	8.70	1.60	5.10	0.80	0.37	1.29	1.66	0.01	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	-	1.22	3.84	2.09	75:30	79.14	34.80
Clayton Keller	UTA	LW	99.9%	0.20	1.10	2.60	3.70	7.10	0.30	1.40	1.10	0.27	0.88	1.15	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.54	0.66	-	0.92	3.04	1.22	57:18	68.29	27.70
Logan Cooley	UTA	C	93.9%	0.20	1.10	1.90	2.90	5.10	2.60	1.60	1.10	0.25	0.49	0.75	0.03	0.02	0.04	15.67	17.84	46.8%	0.95	2.78	1.16	53:12	66.65	22.20
Jordan Eberle	SEA	RW	30.3%	0.20	0.70	0.90	1.70	5.50	1.70	1.30	0.90	0.18	0.25	0.43	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.52	0.64	-	0.86	2.49	-0.54	53:12	64.26	15.80
Matthew Beniers	SEA	C	49.6%	0.20	0.70	1.10	1.80	5.00	1.50	2.20	0.70	0.16	0.26	0.42	0.01	0.01	0.02	19.31	20.77	48.2%	0.92	2.81	-0.59	56:36	66.96	16.10
Sidney Crosby	PIT	C	99.9%	0.19	1.40	3.00	4.50	10.60	3.90	1.50	2.20	0.35	0.83	1.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	46.75	38.77	54.7%	1.30	3.94	0.71	79:30	91.39	33.50
Evgeni Malkin	PIT	C	82.4%	0.19	1.40	2.60	4.10	9.70	1.60	1.30	4.00	0.37	0.79	1.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.50	11.66	47.4%	1.26	3.86	0.63	70:54	79.80	31.90
Viktor Arvidsson	DET	RW	32.5%	0.19	0.90	1.20	2.10	8.60	1.00	1.20	1.20	0.19	0.28	0.47	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.49	0.58	-	0.69	2.18	-0.66	43:42	53.84	20.60
Will Smith	SJ	RW	94.9%	0.19	1.30	1.90	3.10	6.80	0.60	0.70	0.60	0.39	0.59	0.98	0.01	0.00	0.02	1.53	1.76	-	0.77	2.74	0.60	51:24	56.54	23.40
William Eklund	OTT	LW	79.4%	0.18	0.90	1.70	2.60	10.00	3.10	2.10	1.20	0.21	0.46	0.67	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.76	0.94	-	1.17	3.68	0.38	76:06	83.57	23.70
Chris Kreider	MON	LW	62.4%	0.18	0.70	0.80	1.50	5.20	3.80	0.90	1.10	0.19	0.23	0.42	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.89	1.13	-	0.82	2.48	0.15	50:54	64.42	13.70
Juraj Slafkovsky	MON	RW	100.0%	0.18	0.70	1.20	1.90	6.20	5.20	2.70	1.80	0.19	0.34	0.54	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.84	1.10	-	0.81	2.79	0.16	54:36	59.76	19.00
Ivan Demidov	MON	RW	91.3%	0.18	0.70	1.30	2.00	5.20	1.50	1.00	1.30	0.20	0.40	0.60	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.02	-	0.76	2.34	0.13	47:00	54.87	16.40
Yegor Chinakhov	PIT	RW	48.0%	0.18	1.30	1.50	2.80	10.00	3.20	1.70	0.80	0.27	0.32	0.59	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.22	0.26	-	0.86	2.72	0.53	57:12	71.53	24.90
Filip Forsberg	NSH	LW	99.1%	0.18	1.00	1.30	2.30	8.80	3.60	1.20	1.00	0.29	0.41	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.46	0.58	-	1.06	3.05	-0.59	56:42	65.67	21.20
Steven Stamkos	NSH	C	93.6%	0.18	1.00	1.00	1.90	7.50	2.50	1.10	1.30	0.31	0.32	0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	12.32	10.36	54.3%	0.86	2.59	-0.56	54:12	63.00	17.10
Ivan Barbashev	LV	LW	67.8%	0.18	0.80	1.20	2.00	4.60	5.60	1.10	0.80	0.05	0.08	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.76	1.03	-	0.78	2.64	-0.37	49:30	60.12	16.00
Anders Lee	UTA	LW	28.5%	0.18	1.00	0.70	1.60	6.20	3.50	1.50	1.20	0.18	0.13	0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.76	1.94	-	0.71	2.34	1.10	48:42	60.99	16.00
Jakob Chychrun	WAS	D	99.1%	0.18	0.70	1.00	1.70	7.00	2.70	3.40	2.50	0.23	0.33	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	1.07	3.49	-0.10	67:00	66.55	21.10
Jordan Kyrou	WAS	RW	79.9%	0.18	0.70	0.90	1.70	7.10	1.00	0.90	0.60	0.14	0.20	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.29	0.37	-	0.82	2.45	-0.07	49:42	63.65	16.70
Ryan Leonard	WAS	RW	65.8%	0.18	0.70	0.80	1.50	5.90	6.40	0.90	2.00	0.15	0.20	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.20	0.23	-	0.65	2.15	-0.06	41:54	52.61	15.20
J.T. Miller	NYR	C	91.8%	0.17	0.80	1.50	2.40	7.40	6.60	1.90	2.20	0.19	0.42	0.61	0.03	0.02	0.05	23.72	17.17	58.0%	0.94	3.04	-0.17	57:36	75.07	20.00
Alexis Lafreniere	NYR	RW	81.8%	0.17	0.80	1.20	2.00	7.70	3.70	1.40	1.20	0.20	0.31	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67	0.86	-	0.89	2.54	-0.15	51:54	63.55	18.00
Matthew Coronato	CGY	RW	40.0%	0.17	0.60	0.60	1.20	5.80	0.60	0.70	0.60	0.14	0.15	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.17	2.67	-	0.54	1.62	-0.59	34:06	42.36	11.40
Lucas Raymond	DET	RW	95.6%	0.17	0.80	1.70	2.50	7.20	1.40	0.90	0.80	0.20	0.51	0.71	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.06	-	0.94	2.84	-0.82	56:24	66.77	20.80
Rasmus Dahlin	BUF	D	99.8%	0.17	0.60	1.60	2.20	6.60	2.70	3.50	2.50	0.22	0.62	0.84	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	1.09	3.85	-0.58	72:54	82.99	22.50
Joshua Norris	BUF	C	38.9%	0.17	0.60	0.90	1.60	4.10	1.90	1.90	1.70	0.16	0.27	0.43	0.01	0.00	0.01	21.05	20.17	51.1%	0.81	2.36	-0.40	51:42	68.53	14.90

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

GWG starts with goals

Game-winning goals are a slice of a player's goals. Check the goal projections first.

Goals Projections

Team wins drive the share

Teams projected to win more have more game-winning goals to hand out. Goalie win projections show which teams are favoured.

Goalie Win Projections

Power-play goals

Another goal-based category where the role, not a hot streak, decides who scores.

Power-Play Goals

Related Projections

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Frequently Asked Questions

Each player's projected goals (from LineupExperts) times his team's expected game-winners per goal: the team's projected non-shootout wins divided by its projected goals.

Not measurably. The share of a player's goals that are game-winners correlates at about 0.09 from one season to the next, so we do not reward past GWG totals. Goals and team wins drive the projection.

A team that wins less has fewer game-winning goals to hand out, so each of its goals is less likely to be the winner.

No. The NHL does not credit a game-winning goal for a shootout win, and the projection removes the league's share of shootout-decided wins.