Edgehalla

NHL Projected Shorthanded Goals for Today

Shorthanded goals are rare: about 3% of all goals. These projections estimate each player's share of his projected goals that come while killing a penalty. The ranking is driven mostly by penalty-kill ice time times a mostly league-level scoring rate, so treat it as a guide to who is on the ice shorthanded, not a prediction of who will score.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Updated (hourly)
2 games • 80 players

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

Shorthanded scoring is rare and streaky: even the leaders score only a few a season. These projections are driven mostly by penalty-kill ice time, with each team’s total held to the league’s shorthanded share of its projected goals and assists. How the model works

Sorted by Projected Short Handed Goals

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PlayerTeamPosOppRost%SHG† ↓GAnytime%APTSSOGHITBLKPIMPPG†PPA†PPP†SHA†SHP†GWG†FOW†FOL†FO%†TK†GV†+/-†TOISFT†FPTS
Alex TuchWSHRWvs MTL93.8%0.020.4032.8%0.400.802.530.901.200.500.060.070.130.020.040.050.770.93-0.410.92-0.0219:0924.648.09
Tom WilsonWSHRWvs MTL94.2%0.020.4032.9%0.500.901.992.600.901.100.090.110.200.020.040.060.180.22-0.290.99-0.0219:4023.087.79
Parker KellyCOLLWvs DAL17.7%0.020.2320.3%0.200.431.152.000.900.400.000.000.010.010.030.041.531.9144.5%0.210.660.2212:5318.264.36
Alex NewhookMTLLW@ WSH24.6%0.020.2824.1%0.200.481.571.100.400.300.040.030.070.010.030.043.833.7950.3%0.230.73-0.0215:5219.724.15
Brock NelsonCOLCvs DAL86.6%0.020.3327.8%0.300.631.850.400.800.400.070.070.140.010.030.068.518.4550.2%0.290.870.2918:3923.476.45
Josh AndersonMTLRW@ WSH11.1%0.020.2018.0%0.100.301.301.800.401.100.000.000.000.010.020.030.220.23-0.210.66-0.0213:1618.943.19
Jake EvansMTLC@ WSH4.9%0.020.1412.8%0.200.340.961.200.700.300.000.000.000.010.030.027.106.0853.9%0.260.72-0.0213:0819.863.12
Arttu HyryDALC@ COL4.0%0.020.1412.7%0.100.141.231.500.400.100.000.000.000.010.030.024.913.9155.7%0.180.56-0.1013:0615.922.12
Artturi LehkonenCOLLWvs DAL75.9%0.020.3328.2%0.300.631.870.600.600.300.060.050.120.010.020.060.110.14-0.300.920.3119:3923.916.69
Aliaksei ProtasWSHLWvs MTL52.3%0.010.2320.7%0.400.631.690.400.600.200.010.010.020.020.030.030.380.43-0.280.87-0.0216:0021.246.00
Boone JennerWSHCvs MTL23.1%0.010.2219.9%0.300.521.771.901.000.500.010.010.020.010.020.034.233.5254.6%0.250.82-0.0215:1321.165.53
Sam SteelDALC@ COL5.8%0.010.1816.2%0.200.481.260.800.400.300.010.010.010.010.020.021.871.8051.0%0.230.72-0.1216:2118.973.46
Zachary L'HeureuxNew team · 4 GP with COLCOLLWvs DAL11.2%0.010.109.8%0.100.201.202.500.601.000.000.000.010.010.020.020.080.09-0.190.600.2112:1816.882.82
Oskar BackDALLW@ COL0.2%0.010.087.8%0.100.280.720.400.500.100.000.000.000.010.010.010.650.66-0.200.57-0.1012:4616.372.29
Nick SuzukiMTLC@ WSH99.9%0.010.4033.1%0.701.102.490.900.600.300.110.230.340.010.020.058.938.6950.7%0.341.09-0.0221:5722.409.01
Phillip DanaultMTLC@ WSH4.9%0.010.098.5%0.200.291.160.800.500.300.000.010.010.010.020.017.506.4853.7%0.240.77-0.0215:0621.523.23
Joel KivirantaNew team · 2 GP with DALDALLW@ COL0.1%0.010.109.9%0.100.200.901.300.400.200.000.000.000.010.010.010.150.17-0.180.59-0.0911:3016.902.73
Nicolas RoyCOLCvs DAL12.1%0.010.1211.1%0.200.320.890.900.600.500.010.010.020.010.010.024.984.5252.4%0.250.750.2412:0219.092.81
Justin HryckowianDALC@ COL15.3%0.010.1614.6%0.200.261.131.600.500.400.020.020.040.000.010.022.351.9654.5%0.230.59-0.1014:1417.522.85
Radek FaksaDALC@ COL0.1%0.010.055.3%0.100.250.741.200.600.300.000.000.000.010.010.014.344.0951.5%0.200.54-0.1010:2917.372.42
Nathan MacKinnonCOLCvs DAL99.9%0.000.6044.9%0.901.503.280.600.500.600.180.280.460.000.010.118.888.8150.2%0.341.350.3220:4123.7112.88
Martin NecasCOLRWvs DAL99.9%0.000.4838.1%0.601.182.440.900.300.300.150.200.350.000.010.090.280.29-0.331.090.2821:3621.109.48
Colin BlackwellDALRW@ COL0.1%0.000.065.8%0.100.160.821.400.400.400.000.000.000.000.010.011.842.0547.4%0.200.53-0.099:4715.991.66
Alexandre CarrierMTLD@ WSH13.3%0.000.098.7%0.200.290.810.701.700.400.000.000.000.010.010.010.000.00-0.300.96-0.0318:1824.604.15
Kirby DachMTLC@ WSH10.5%0.000.1211.1%0.200.320.901.500.600.700.020.030.040.000.010.021.401.58-0.210.68-0.029:0017.422.81
Chris KreiderMTLLW@ WSH61.6%0.000.2521.8%0.300.551.601.100.300.300.070.090.170.000.010.030.290.35-0.260.77-0.0214:3521.144.47
Anthony BeauvillierWSHRWvs MTL4.1%0.000.1311.8%0.200.331.271.100.500.200.000.010.010.000.010.020.380.43-0.210.62-0.0212:0618.003.75
Roope HintzDALC@ COL83.0%0.000.2824.2%0.400.782.251.000.400.300.080.120.190.000.010.047.465.8556.0%0.250.85-0.1217:5121.076.86
Justin SourdifWSHCvs MTL15.4%0.000.1615.1%0.300.461.221.300.500.400.010.020.030.000.010.023.934.3447.5%0.220.71-0.0213:2619.124.38
Cale MakarCOLDvs DAL100.0%0.000.2522.2%0.700.952.600.401.700.300.100.310.400.010.010.040.000.00-0.401.270.3725:0025.899.90
Miro HeiskanenDALD@ COL98.1%0.000.1412.6%0.600.741.930.301.400.400.040.220.260.010.020.020.000.00-0.381.31-0.1826:0325.446.71
Jaden SchwartzCOLLWvs DAL30.3%0.000.2119.0%0.200.511.260.500.600.300.030.040.070.000.000.040.420.45-0.300.820.2712:5121.414.57
Cole CaufieldMTLLW@ WSH99.9%0.000.6447.5%0.400.943.010.600.200.200.190.140.330.000.000.090.110.13-0.280.83-0.0219:1920.959.16
Brent BurnsCOLDvs DAL46.7%0.000.1110.2%0.300.311.690.201.100.400.000.010.020.010.010.020.000.00-0.271.060.3518:1525.074.74
Jakob ChychrunWSHDvs MTL99.0%0.000.3126.8%0.500.712.500.701.500.800.100.160.260.010.010.040.000.00-0.351.23-0.0325:0322.638.47
Noah DobsonMTLD@ WSH93.8%0.000.1210.9%0.400.521.660.901.700.400.020.070.090.010.010.020.000.00-0.371.22-0.0320:0927.185.69
Esa LindellDALD@ COL31.8%0.000.065.6%0.200.260.830.401.900.200.000.020.020.010.010.010.000.00-0.321.21-0.1820:3424.294.34
Martin FehervaryWSHDvs MTL25.1%0.000.066.1%0.200.260.931.602.200.400.000.000.000.010.010.010.000.00-0.240.99-0.0322:0622.294.38
Fedor SvechkovCOLCvs DAL8.8%0.000.098.7%0.200.290.940.700.600.400.000.010.010.000.000.023.244.1244.1%0.200.630.2212:3515.822.45
Juraj SlafkovskyMTLRW@ WSH97.5%0.000.3529.3%0.500.752.391.400.700.500.100.160.270.000.000.050.290.40-0.290.96-0.0218:5320.177.08
Josh MansonCOLDvs DAL36.0%0.000.077.0%0.300.271.312.001.401.000.000.010.010.010.010.010.000.00-0.250.980.3118:2322.964.74
Devon ToewsCOLDvs DAL72.7%0.000.087.9%0.400.481.470.501.300.400.020.100.120.010.010.010.000.00-0.431.200.3822:5827.945.90
Nazem KadriCOLCvs DAL69.5%0.000.2017.8%0.400.602.600.600.500.500.050.130.190.000.000.035.906.6746.9%0.300.990.2820:0022.215.78
Kaiden GuhleMTLD@ WSH17.9%0.000.055.2%0.200.250.992.001.500.700.000.000.000.010.010.010.000.00-0.341.05-0.0318:3923.793.72
Gabriel LandeskogCOLLWvs DAL46.7%0.000.2118.6%0.300.612.051.400.600.700.050.070.120.000.000.042.171.8454.0%0.250.790.2517:1220.135.93
Lian BichselDALD@ COL20.2%0.000.066.1%0.100.060.682.800.800.800.000.000.000.000.000.010.000.00-0.210.76-0.1215:4218.121.88
Alex OvechkinWSHLWvs MTL92.2%0.000.2925.4%0.400.692.421.500.200.200.090.130.220.000.000.040.020.02-0.230.80-0.0215:2619.756.55
Ilya ProtasWSHLWvs MTL40.4%0.000.1110.6%0.300.411.210.600.500.300.020.070.090.000.000.024.175.1344.8%0.230.73-0.0213:0717.713.57
Alexandre TexierMTLLW@ WSH4.9%0.000.1312.6%0.300.431.421.100.300.400.020.050.070.000.000.020.090.12-0.210.59-0.0213:2216.624.01
Timothy LiljegrenWSHDvs MTL4.8%0.000.054.9%0.200.250.940.901.800.400.000.010.010.010.010.010.000.00-0.261.01-0.0318:3723.173.30
Vincent DesharnaisWSHDvs MTL4.2%0.000.032.5%0.100.130.731.901.600.800.000.000.000.010.010.000.000.00-0.220.94-0.0219:1020.653.05
Thomas HarleyDALD@ COL83.2%0.000.087.3%0.300.381.630.501.700.300.010.050.070.000.010.010.000.00-0.411.23-0.1823:5124.985.56
Sam MalinskiCOLDvs DAL44.2%0.000.087.6%0.200.281.650.501.300.300.010.020.020.000.000.010.000.00-0.270.860.2917:4320.865.08
Tyler SeguinDALRW@ COL18.2%0.000.2522.2%0.300.551.720.600.200.200.040.050.090.000.000.033.503.2352.0%0.230.75-0.1215:5319.855.11
Dylan StromeWSHCvs MTL81.0%0.000.2018.2%0.600.801.790.200.700.400.050.170.220.000.000.038.937.2455.2%0.260.88-0.0217:2920.406.61
Jordan KyrouWSHRWvs MTL69.0%0.000.1917.4%0.400.591.720.300.400.200.040.090.130.000.000.030.120.16-0.280.84-0.0213:0820.665.65
Mikko RantanenDALRW@ COL98.8%0.000.3428.7%0.701.042.300.700.400.900.090.230.320.000.000.050.900.99-0.351.08-0.1421:4121.718.13
Lane HutsonMTLD@ WSH99.0%0.000.1615.1%0.700.861.740.401.300.400.060.260.320.000.000.020.000.00-0.401.24-0.0325:4024.437.38
Arber XhekajMTLD@ WSH8.6%0.000.021.9%0.100.120.522.400.601.300.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.170.65-0.029:5415.631.41
Tyler MyersDALD@ COL3.3%0.000.021.5%0.100.220.901.101.400.700.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.271.02-0.1614:5024.062.79
Ryan LeonardWSHRWvs MTL67.2%0.000.2622.9%0.500.761.961.800.400.700.060.130.190.000.000.040.060.07-0.220.72-0.0214:2817.536.76
Noah JuulsenNew team · 4 GP with COLCOLDvs DAL0.1%0.000.022.2%0.100.120.562.001.300.500.000.000.010.000.000.000.000.00-0.230.790.2513:1821.262.24
Brett KulakCOLDvs DAL4.3%0.000.021.6%0.200.220.950.301.500.300.000.010.010.000.000.000.000.00-0.260.990.3418:3823.213.60
Kyle CapobiancoDALD@ COL0.1%0.000.011.3%0.100.110.440.300.700.200.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.180.63-0.108:0214.721.88
Nils LundkvistDALD@ COL5.6%0.000.055.0%0.200.250.920.500.800.400.000.010.010.000.000.010.000.00-0.190.80-0.1216:5718.953.21
Cole HutsonWSHDvs MTL87.4%0.000.1514.1%0.500.651.651.000.800.500.040.140.170.000.000.020.000.00-0.261.00-0.0219:2822.966.02
Jason RobertsonDALLW@ COL99.1%0.000.4737.5%0.601.073.280.700.300.300.130.200.340.000.000.060.030.04-0.321.02-0.1321:1420.119.32
Ethen FrankWSHRWvs MTL0.1%0.000.1412.9%0.200.341.040.800.700.200.030.040.060.000.000.020.040.05-0.180.55-0.019:3415.964.03
Jamie BennDALLW@ COL19.0%0.000.2119.1%0.300.511.161.300.300.700.020.040.060.000.000.031.381.39-0.210.69-0.1112:3619.733.77
Adam EngstromMTLD@ WSH6.4%0.000.021.9%0.100.120.790.500.600.300.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.260.99-0.0212:0825.392.32
Dylan McIlrathWSHDvs MTL0.1%0.000.011.4%0.000.010.401.800.300.700.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.130.47-0.019:1212.630.49
Zachary BolducMTLLW@ WSH24.3%0.000.2018.2%0.200.401.452.000.400.300.040.040.070.000.000.030.180.22-0.200.74-0.0213:5715.974.21
Justin HollWSHDvs MTL0.1%0.000.000.0%0.100.100.601.101.300.400.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.220.77-0.0214:5418.132.30
Owen BeckMTLC@ WSH8.0%0.000.087.3%0.100.180.931.600.500.300.000.000.000.000.000.012.212.0352.1%0.150.47-0.019:1512.742.16
Florian XhekajMTLLW@ WSH7.3%0.000.087.6%0.200.281.100.800.300.200.000.000.010.000.000.010.170.21-0.160.49-0.019:4812.732.37
T.J. HughesCOLRWvs DAL22.6%0.000.1311.8%0.200.331.780.700.400.300.060.100.160.000.000.021.391.51-0.170.500.1214:2911.522.96

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Start from total goals. Each player's goals come from Edgehalla's goal model tonight (LineupExperts for longer ranges); assists and ice time from LineupExperts. Our model splits those goals and assists between even strength, the power play and the penalty kill in proportion to the minutes the player has been getting in each situation (recent games weighted most) times his shrunk scoring rate per 60 minutes there.

Heavy shrinkage. One early shorthanded goal says almost nothing about a player's true rate, so shorthanded scoring rates are pulled strongly toward the league average for the position. In our backtest, 25 skaters who scored a shorthanded goal in their first 10 games scored 26 more the rest of the season; the model projected 26.4, while their early pace implied 129.

Team check. Each team's projected shorthanded goals are scaled to the league's shorthanded share of that team's projected goals.

Variance warning

even the leaders project for one or two a season. Single-game values are tiny.

💡
Pro Tip: Use this page to find regular penalty killers, not to chase a shorthanded goal tonight.

Shorthanded points

Goals and assists while shorthanded in one ranking.

Shorthanded Points

Penalty-kill deployment

Penalty-kill minutes drive this ranking. Check current deployment.

Line Combinations

Shorthanded assists

The assist side of shorthanded scoring.

Shorthanded Assists

Related Projections

Frequently Asked Questions

Projected goals are split by strength using the player's recent penalty-kill minutes times a heavily shrunk shorthanded scoring rate. Each team's total is then scaled to the league shorthanded share of its projected goals.
Shorthanded goals are rare. Even top penalty killers average one or two a season, so a single game projects for a few hundredths of a goal.
Less reliable than most categories. In our backtest the model beat a naive per-game rate by a wide margin and got the league total right, but player-level results are noisy because the events are so rare.
No. The model has no opponent power-play adjustment; penalty-kill ice time is the main driver.

Projections by Category

Find projected leaders for specific stats

Scoring Projections

Goals, assists, and points leaders

Peripheral Stats

SOG, hits, blocks, ice time, giveaways and shifts

Faceoff & Physical

Faceoffs won, lost and FO%, PIM, takeaways and +/-

Goalie Projections

Starts, wins, losses, saves, SV% and GAA

Fantasy Points

Standard, DraftKings, and FanDuel

NHL Team Projections

Click a team to see today player projections