NHL Goalie Saves Projections Today
Projected saves for each team's expected starter tonight, with his chance of clearing 22.5, 25.5 and 28.5 saves if he starts, and whether the start is confirmed. Projections, not picks.
Tonight's starters: chance to clear each saves line
| Fair odds (O 25.5) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmithConfirmedDAL @ COL | 24.7 | 60% | 43% | 28% | +1332.33 |
| Jakub DobesConfirmedMTL @ WSH | 23.6 | 54% | 37% | 23% | +1732.73 |
| Charlie LindgrenConfirmedWSH vs MTL | 22.7 | 48% | 31% | 18% | +2193.19 |
| Scott WedgewoodExpectedCOL vs DAL | 20.7 | 36% | 21% | 11% | +3764.76 |
Saves are projected for a start, then a negative binomial (size 24) gives the chance of each line; a plain Poisson is far too narrow for saves (2025-26 backtest). Chances assume the goalie starts and plays the game. PP1 is the top power-play unit over recent games. Projections, not picks.
Sorted by Projected Goaltending Saves
4 playersGoalies4 of 4
| Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Rost% | SV ↓ | GS | W | L | OTL | GA | SA | SV% | GAA† | MIN† | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | DAL | G | @ COL | 15.6% | 26.2 | 1.00 | 0.37 | 0.52 | 0.11 | 2.8 | 29.0 | 90.3% | 2.82 | 60:06 | 9.30 |
| Charlie Lindgren | WSH | G | vs MTL | 12.2% | 25.6 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 3.0 | 28.6 | 89.6% | 2.97 | 60:01 | 9.15 |
| Jakub Dobes | MTL | G | @ WSH | 93.0% | 24.0 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.10 | 2.9 | 26.9 | 89.1% | 2.94 | 59:55 | 7.97 |
| Scott Wedgewood | COL | G | vs DAL | 88.9% | 23.0 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.34 | 0.09 | 2.3 | 25.3 | 90.9% | 2.30 | 59:55 | 10.64 |
† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works
Goalie shots against, saves, goals against, SV%, GAA, wins and OTL are an Edgehalla blend: LineupExperts' goalie line averaged 50/50 with Edgehalla's own goalie model.
Why saves matter
In category leagues, saves are a volume stat that can swing matchups. Goalies facing 35+ shots can rack up 30+ saves regardless of game outcome.
Saves volume factors
- Opponent offense: Facing elite offenses = more shots faced - Team defense: Weaker teams allow more shots against - Game script: Underdogs protecting leads face shot barrages - Special teams: PK-heavy games increase shot volume
Saves strategy
Sometimes a losing goalie on a bad team provides more fantasy value (via saves) than a winning goalie on an elite team who faces 20 shots.
High-Volume Matchups Tonight
Identify goalies facing offensive powerhouses. These matchups produce the most save opportunities.
Games TodaySaves vs. Wins Balance
Goalies on favorites face fewer shots but win more. Underdogs face more shots but lose more. Balance based on your category needs.
Wins ProjectionsStreaming for Saves
Need saves? Stream goalies on bad teams facing good offenses. They're often available and will face 30+ shots.
Starting GoaliesRelated Projections
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