NHL Projected Power Play Goals for Today

Power-play goals are worth extra in many fantasy formats. These projections take each player's projected goals and estimate how many come on the man advantage, based on how much power-play time he has been getting and how often he scores there. Players who play big power-play minutes and finish well rise to the top.

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Updated 9:44 PM ET(hourly)

2 games • 79 players

Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history.

How the model works

Sorted by Projected Power Play Goals

75 players

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Player	Team	Pos	Opp	Rost%	PPG^† ↓	G	Anytime%	A	PTS	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	PPA^†	PPP^†	SHG^†	SHA^†	SHP^†	GWG^†	FOW^†	FOL^†	FO%^†	TK^†	GV^†	+/-^†	TOI	SFT^†	FPTS
Cole Caufield	MTL	LW	@ WSH	99.9%	0.19	0.64	47.5%	0.40	0.94	3.01	0.60	0.20	0.20	0.14	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.11	0.13	-	0.28	0.83	-0.03	19:19	20.95	9.16
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	vs DAL	99.9%	0.18	0.60	44.9%	0.90	1.50	3.28	0.60	0.50	0.60	0.28	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.11	8.88	8.81	50.2%	0.34	1.35	0.32	20:41	23.71	12.88
Martin Necas	COL	RW	vs DAL	99.9%	0.15	0.48	38.1%	0.60	1.18	2.44	0.90	0.30	0.30	0.20	0.35	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.09	0.28	0.29	-	0.33	1.09	0.29	21:36	21.10	9.48
Jason Robertson	DAL	LW	@ COL	99.1%	0.13	0.47	37.5%	0.60	1.07	3.28	0.70	0.30	0.30	0.20	0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06	0.03	0.04	-	0.32	1.02	-0.12	21:14	20.11	9.32
Nick Suzuki	MTL	C	@ WSH	99.9%	0.11	0.40	33.1%	0.70	1.10	2.49	0.90	0.60	0.30	0.23	0.34	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.06	8.93	8.69	50.7%	0.34	1.09	-0.04	21:57	22.40	9.01
Juraj Slafkovsky	MTL	RW	@ WSH	97.5%	0.10	0.35	29.3%	0.50	0.75	2.39	1.40	0.70	0.50	0.16	0.27	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.29	0.40	-	0.29	0.96	-0.03	18:53	20.17	7.08
Jakob Chychrun	WSH	D	vs MTL	99.0%	0.10	0.31	26.8%	0.50	0.71	2.50	0.70	1.50	0.80	0.16	0.26	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.00	-	0.35	1.23	-0.02	25:03	22.63	8.47
Cale Makar	COL	D	vs DAL	100.0%	0.10	0.25	22.2%	0.70	0.95	2.60	0.40	1.70	0.30	0.31	0.40	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.00	-	0.40	1.27	0.37	25:00	25.89	9.90
Alex Ovechkin	WSH	LW	vs MTL	92.2%	0.09	0.29	25.4%	0.40	0.69	2.42	1.50	0.20	0.20	0.13	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.02	0.02	-	0.23	0.80	-0.01	15:26	19.75	6.55
Mikko Rantanen	DAL	RW	@ COL	98.8%	0.09	0.34	28.7%	0.70	1.04	2.30	0.70	0.40	0.90	0.23	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.90	0.99	-	0.35	1.08	-0.14	21:41	21.71	8.13
Tom Wilson	WSH	RW	vs MTL	94.2%	0.09	0.40	32.9%	0.50	0.90	1.99	2.60	0.90	1.10	0.11	0.20	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.06	0.18	0.22	-	0.29	0.99	-0.02	19:40	23.08	7.79
Roope Hintz	DAL	C	@ COL	83.0%	0.08	0.28	24.2%	0.40	0.78	2.25	1.00	0.40	0.30	0.12	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.04	7.46	5.85	56.0%	0.25	0.85	-0.11	17:51	21.07	6.86
Chris Kreider	MTL	LW	@ WSH	61.6%	0.07	0.25	21.8%	0.30	0.55	1.60	1.10	0.30	0.30	0.09	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.29	0.35	-	0.26	0.77	-0.03	14:35	21.14	4.47
Brock Nelson	COL	C	vs DAL	86.6%	0.07	0.33	27.8%	0.30	0.63	1.85	0.40	0.80	0.40	0.07	0.14	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.06	8.51	8.45	50.2%	0.29	0.87	0.30	18:39	23.47	6.45
Alex Tuch	WSH	RW	vs MTL	93.8%	0.06	0.40	32.8%	0.40	0.80	2.53	0.90	1.20	0.50	0.07	0.13	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.05	0.77	0.93	-	0.41	0.92	-0.02	19:09	24.64	8.09
Artturi Lehkonen	COL	LW	vs DAL	75.9%	0.06	0.33	28.2%	0.30	0.63	1.87	0.60	0.60	0.30	0.05	0.12	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.06	0.11	0.14	-	0.30	0.92	0.31	19:39	23.91	6.69
Ryan Leonard	WSH	RW	vs MTL	67.2%	0.06	0.26	22.9%	0.50	0.76	1.96	1.80	0.40	0.70	0.13	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.06	0.07	-	0.22	0.72	-0.01	14:28	17.53	6.76
T.J. Hughes	COL	RW	vs DAL	22.6%	0.06	0.13	11.8%	0.20	0.33	1.78	0.70	0.40	0.30	0.10	0.16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	1.39	1.51	-	0.17	0.50	0.12	14:29	11.52	2.96
Lane Hutson	MTL	D	@ WSH	99.0%	0.06	0.16	15.1%	0.70	0.86	1.74	0.40	1.30	0.40	0.26	0.32	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.40	1.24	-0.04	25:40	24.43	7.38
Nazem Kadri	COL	C	vs DAL	69.5%	0.05	0.20	17.8%	0.40	0.60	2.60	0.60	0.50	0.50	0.13	0.19	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	5.90	6.67	46.9%	0.30	0.99	0.28	20:00	22.21	5.78
Dylan Strome	WSH	C	vs MTL	81.0%	0.05	0.20	18.2%	0.60	0.80	1.79	0.20	0.70	0.40	0.17	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	8.93	7.24	55.2%	0.26	0.88	-0.01	17:29	20.40	6.61
Gabriel Landeskog	COL	LW	vs DAL	46.7%	0.05	0.21	18.6%	0.30	0.61	2.05	1.40	0.60	0.70	0.07	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	2.17	1.84	54.0%	0.25	0.79	0.26	17:12	20.13	5.93
Miro Heiskanen	DAL	D	@ COL	98.1%	0.04	0.14	12.6%	0.60	0.74	1.93	0.30	1.40	0.40	0.22	0.26	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.38	1.31	-0.18	26:03	25.44	6.71
Tyler Seguin	DAL	RW	@ COL	18.2%	0.04	0.25	22.2%	0.30	0.55	1.72	0.60	0.20	0.20	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	3.50	3.23	52.0%	0.23	0.75	-0.12	15:53	19.85	5.11
Cole Hutson	WSH	D	vs MTL	87.4%	0.04	0.15	14.1%	0.50	0.65	1.65	1.00	0.80	0.50	0.14	0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.26	1.00	-0.02	19:28	22.96	6.02
Alex Newhook	MTL	LW	@ WSH	24.6%	0.04	0.28	24.1%	0.20	0.48	1.57	1.10	0.40	0.30	0.03	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.04	3.83	3.79	50.3%	0.23	0.73	-0.03	15:52	19.72	4.15
Jordan Kyrou	WSH	RW	vs MTL	69.0%	0.04	0.19	17.4%	0.40	0.59	1.72	0.30	0.40	0.20	0.09	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.12	0.16	-	0.28	0.84	-0.01	13:08	20.66	5.65
Zachary Bolduc	MTL	LW	@ WSH	24.3%	0.04	0.20	18.2%	0.20	0.40	1.45	2.00	0.40	0.30	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.18	0.22	-	0.20	0.74	-0.03	13:57	15.97	4.21
Jaden Schwartz	COL	LW	vs DAL	30.3%	0.03	0.21	19.0%	0.20	0.51	1.26	0.50	0.60	0.30	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.42	0.45	-	0.30	0.82	0.27	12:51	21.41	4.57
Ethen Frank	WSH	RW	vs MTL	0.1%	0.03	0.14	12.9%	0.20	0.34	1.04	0.80	0.70	0.20	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.04	0.05	-	0.18	0.55	-0.01	9:34	15.96	4.03
Jamie Benn	DAL	LW	@ COL	19.0%	0.02	0.21	19.1%	0.30	0.51	1.16	1.30	0.30	0.70	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	1.38	1.39	-	0.21	0.69	-0.11	12:36	19.73	3.77
Ilya Protas	WSH	LW	vs MTL	40.4%	0.02	0.11	10.6%	0.30	0.41	1.21	0.60	0.50	0.30	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	4.17	5.13	44.8%	0.23	0.73	-0.01	13:07	17.71	3.57
Alexandre Texier	MTL	LW	@ WSH	4.9%	0.02	0.13	12.6%	0.30	0.43	1.42	1.10	0.30	0.40	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.09	0.12	-	0.21	0.59	-0.03	13:22	16.62	4.01
Noah Dobson	MTL	D	@ WSH	93.8%	0.02	0.12	10.9%	0.40	0.52	1.66	0.90	1.70	0.40	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.37	1.22	-0.05	20:09	27.18	5.69
Devon Toews	COL	D	vs DAL	72.7%	0.02	0.08	7.9%	0.40	0.48	1.47	0.50	1.30	0.40	0.10	0.12	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.43	1.20	0.39	22:58	27.94	5.90
Justin Hryckowian	DAL	C	@ COL	15.3%	0.02	0.16	14.6%	0.20	0.26	1.13	1.60	0.50	0.40	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	2.35	1.96	54.5%	0.23	0.59	-0.10	14:14	17.52	2.85
Kirby Dach	MTL	C	@ WSH	10.5%	0.02	0.12	11.1%	0.20	0.32	0.90	1.50	0.60	0.70	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	1.40	1.58	-	0.21	0.68	-0.03	9:00	17.42	2.81
Thomas Harley	DAL	D	@ COL	83.2%	0.01	0.08	7.3%	0.30	0.38	1.63	0.50	1.70	0.30	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.41	1.23	-0.18	23:51	24.98	5.56
Boone Jenner	WSH	C	vs MTL	23.1%	0.01	0.22	19.9%	0.30	0.52	1.77	1.90	1.00	0.50	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	4.23	3.52	54.6%	0.25	0.82	-0.02	15:13	21.16	5.53
Justin Sourdif	WSH	C	vs MTL	15.4%	0.01	0.16	15.1%	0.30	0.46	1.22	1.30	0.50	0.40	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	3.93	4.34	47.5%	0.22	0.71	-0.01	13:26	19.12	4.38
Sam Malinski	COL	D	vs DAL	44.2%	0.01	0.08	7.6%	0.20	0.28	1.65	0.50	1.30	0.30	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.27	0.86	0.30	17:43	20.86	5.08
Aliaksei Protas	WSH	LW	vs MTL	52.3%	0.01	0.23	20.7%	0.40	0.63	1.69	0.40	0.60	0.20	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.38	0.43	-	0.28	0.87	-0.02	16:00	21.24	6.00
Nicolas Roy	COL	C	vs DAL	12.1%	0.01	0.12	11.1%	0.20	0.32	0.89	0.90	0.60	0.50	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	4.98	4.52	52.4%	0.25	0.75	0.25	12:02	19.09	2.81
Sam Steel	DAL	C	@ COL	5.8%	0.01	0.18	16.2%	0.20	0.48	1.26	0.80	0.40	0.30	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	1.87	1.80	51.0%	0.23	0.72	-0.12	16:21	18.97	3.46
Brent Burns	COL	D	vs DAL	46.7%	0.00	0.11	10.2%	0.30	0.31	1.69	0.20	1.10	0.40	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	-	0.27	1.06	0.35	18:15	25.07	4.74
Parker Kelly	COL	LW	vs DAL	17.7%	0.00	0.23	20.3%	0.20	0.43	1.15	2.00	0.90	0.40	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.04	1.53	1.91	44.5%	0.21	0.66	0.23	12:53	18.26	4.36
Esa Lindell	DAL	D	@ COL	31.8%	0.00	0.06	5.6%	0.20	0.26	0.83	0.40	1.90	0.20	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.32	1.21	-0.18	20:34	24.29	4.34
Anthony Beauvillier	WSH	RW	vs MTL	4.1%	0.00	0.13	11.8%	0.20	0.33	1.27	1.10	0.50	0.20	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.38	0.43	-	0.21	0.62	-0.01	12:06	18.00	3.75
Fedor Svechkov	COL	C	vs DAL	8.8%	0.00	0.09	8.7%	0.20	0.29	0.94	0.70	0.60	0.40	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.02	3.24	4.12	44.1%	0.20	0.63	0.22	12:35	15.82	2.45
Zachary L'HeureuxNew team · 4 GP with COL	COL	LW	vs DAL	11.2%	0.00	0.10	9.8%	0.10	0.20	1.20	2.50	0.60	1.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.08	0.09	-	0.19	0.60	0.22	12:18	16.88	2.82
Phillip Danault	MTL	C	@ WSH	4.9%	0.00	0.09	8.5%	0.20	0.29	1.16	0.80	0.50	0.30	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	7.50	6.48	53.7%	0.24	0.77	-0.04	15:06	21.52	3.23
Josh Anderson	MTL	RW	@ WSH	11.1%	0.00	0.20	18.0%	0.10	0.30	1.30	1.80	0.40	1.10	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.22	0.23	-	0.21	0.66	-0.03	13:16	18.94	3.19
Timothy Liljegren	WSH	D	vs MTL	4.8%	0.00	0.05	4.9%	0.20	0.25	0.94	0.90	1.80	0.40	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.26	1.01	-0.02	18:37	23.17	3.30
Josh Manson	COL	D	vs DAL	36.0%	0.00	0.07	7.0%	0.30	0.27	1.31	2.00	1.40	1.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.25	0.98	0.32	18:23	22.96	4.74
Nils Lundkvist	DAL	D	@ COL	5.6%	0.00	0.05	5.0%	0.20	0.25	0.92	0.50	0.80	0.40	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.19	0.80	-0.12	16:57	18.95	3.21
Jake Evans	MTL	C	@ WSH	4.9%	0.00	0.14	12.8%	0.20	0.34	0.96	1.20	0.70	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	7.10	6.08	53.9%	0.26	0.72	-0.03	13:08	19.86	3.12
Martin Fehervary	WSH	D	vs MTL	25.1%	0.00	0.06	6.1%	0.20	0.26	0.93	1.60	2.20	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.24	0.99	-0.02	22:06	22.29	4.38
Noah JuulsenNew team · 4 GP with COL	COL	D	vs DAL	0.1%	0.00	0.02	2.2%	0.10	0.12	0.56	2.00	1.30	0.50	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.23	0.79	0.26	13:18	21.26	2.24
Joel KivirantaNew team · 2 GP with DAL	DAL	LW	@ COL	0.1%	0.00	0.10	9.9%	0.10	0.20	0.90	1.30	0.40	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.15	0.17	-	0.18	0.59	-0.09	11:30	16.90	2.73
Brett Kulak	COL	D	vs DAL	4.3%	0.00	0.02	1.6%	0.20	0.22	0.95	0.30	1.50	0.30	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.26	0.99	0.35	18:38	23.21	3.60
Arttu Hyry	DAL	C	@ COL	4.0%	0.00	0.14	12.7%	0.10	0.14	1.23	1.50	0.40	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	4.91	3.91	55.7%	0.18	0.56	-0.09	13:06	15.92	2.12
Adam Engstrom	MTL	D	@ WSH	6.4%	0.00	0.02	1.9%	0.10	0.12	0.79	0.50	0.60	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.26	0.99	-0.04	12:08	25.39	2.32
Oskar Back	DAL	LW	@ COL	0.2%	0.00	0.08	7.8%	0.10	0.28	0.72	0.40	0.50	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.65	0.66	-	0.20	0.57	-0.10	12:46	16.37	2.29
Kaiden Guhle	MTL	D	@ WSH	17.9%	0.00	0.05	5.2%	0.20	0.25	0.99	2.00	1.50	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.34	1.05	-0.04	18:39	23.79	3.72
Colin Blackwell	DAL	RW	@ COL	0.1%	0.00	0.06	5.8%	0.10	0.16	0.82	1.40	0.40	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	1.84	2.05	47.4%	0.20	0.53	-0.09	9:47	15.99	1.66
Vincent Desharnais	WSH	D	vs MTL	4.2%	0.00	0.03	2.5%	0.10	0.13	0.73	1.90	1.60	0.80	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.22	0.94	-0.02	19:10	20.65	3.05
Radek Faksa	DAL	C	@ COL	0.1%	0.00	0.05	5.3%	0.10	0.25	0.74	1.20	0.60	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	4.34	4.09	51.5%	0.20	0.54	-0.10	10:29	17.37	2.42
Alexandre Carrier	MTL	D	@ WSH	13.3%	0.00	0.09	8.7%	0.20	0.29	0.81	0.70	1.70	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.30	0.96	-0.04	18:18	24.60	4.15
Lian Bichsel	DAL	D	@ COL	20.2%	0.00	0.06	6.1%	0.10	0.06	0.68	2.80	0.80	0.80	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	-	0.21	0.76	-0.12	15:42	18.12	1.88
Kyle Capobianco	DAL	D	@ COL	0.1%	0.00	0.01	1.3%	0.10	0.11	0.44	0.30	0.70	0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.18	0.63	-0.10	8:02	14.72	1.88
Tyler Myers	DAL	D	@ COL	3.3%	0.00	0.02	1.5%	0.10	0.22	0.90	1.10	1.40	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.27	1.02	-0.15	14:50	24.06	2.79
Arber Xhekaj	MTL	D	@ WSH	8.6%	0.00	0.02	1.9%	0.10	0.12	0.52	2.40	0.60	1.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.17	0.65	-0.03	9:54	15.63	1.41
Owen Beck	MTL	C	@ WSH	8.0%	0.00	0.08	7.3%	0.10	0.18	0.93	1.60	0.50	0.30	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2.21	2.03	52.1%	0.15	0.47	-0.02	9:15	12.74	2.16
Dylan McIlrath	WSH	D	vs MTL	0.1%	0.00	0.01	1.4%	0.00	0.01	0.40	1.80	0.30	0.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.13	0.47	-0.01	9:12	12.63	0.49
Justin Holl	WSH	D	vs MTL	0.1%	0.00	0.00	0.0%	0.10	0.10	0.60	1.10	1.30	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	0.22	0.77	-0.01	14:54	18.13	2.30

† Edgehalla model: derived from LineupExperts' goals, assists and ice-time projection plus NHL history. +/-, shorthanded goals, assists and points are high-variance: the projections are small expected values ranked mostly by ice-time role, and actual totals swing a lot. How the model works

Start from total goals. Each player's goals come from Edgehalla's goal model tonight (LineupExperts for longer ranges); assists and ice time from LineupExperts. Our model splits those goals and assists between even strength, the power play and the penalty kill in proportion to the minutes the player has been getting in each situation (recent games weighted most) times his shrunk scoring rate per 60 minutes there. A player's projected power-play goals can never exceed his projected goals.

What moves a player up

- Power-play minutes per game: from his recent games, the latest weighted most and blended with last season early on - Power-play scoring rate: goals per 60 power-play minutes, shrunk toward the league average for his position so a hot two weeks does not dominate - Total goals: a bigger goal projection means more to split

What it does not use

opponent penalty-kill quality, how many penalties the opponent takes, or line-by-line unit tracking. Those are not in the model.

💡

Pro Tip: Power-play time is the biggest driver. If a player has just moved onto or off the top unit, the projection catches up over a few games; check line combinations for the latest deployment.

Check power-play deployment

Projections follow recent power-play minutes. Confirm current units before setting a lineup.

Line Combinations

Power-play points

Most leagues count power-play points, not goals. The PPP page adds projected power-play assists.

Power Play Points

Power-play assists

Assists on the man advantage go to the players setting up the shot, often defensemen.

Power Play Assists

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Frequently Asked Questions

We take each player's projected goals and split them by strength in proportion to his recent power-play, penalty-kill and even-strength minutes times his shrunk goals-per-60 rate in each. The power-play share is the PPG projection.

Scoring rates are shrunk toward the league average for the position, weighted by how many power-play minutes the player has logged. A few lucky weeks move the estimate a little; a full season of evidence moves it a lot.

No. The model uses the player's own power-play usage and scoring history. It does not adjust for the opponent's penalty kill or how often the opponent takes penalties.

In our backtest on the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons, given the real goal totals, the split beat a naive per-game rate at every cutoff, and the top-ranked players' predicted PPG matched what they scored to within about 2%.

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What moves a player up

What it does not use

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