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NHL Stack Finder: Sunday, Oct 18

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Sunday, Oct 18 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: MIN PP1 (Ek–Kaprizov–Hughes–Boldy–Shabanov) vs CBJ.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1MINPP1vs CBJ0.61 xG

    Joel Eriksson Ek82%, Kirill Kaprizov98%, Quinn Hughes100%, Matt Boldy100%, Maxim Shabanov26%

    5.5 min/game · 7.38 xGF/60 · P(intact) 68%

    • CBJ shorthanded time +1%
    • CBJ PK xGA/60 +27%
    • vs Cam Talbot .883 (64% to start)
    • Talbot .812 on rebounds
    • Together 1 of last 3
  2. #2CARPP1vs CGY0.60 xG

    Shayne Gostisbehere96%, Nikolaj Ehlers93%, Sebastian Aho99%, Andrei Svechnikov97%, Jackson Blake69%

    3.8 min/game · 8.74 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY shorthanded time +31%
    • CGY PK xGA/60 +13%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (93% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  3. #3CARL1vs CGY0.52 xG

    Taylor Hall28%, Logan Stankoven67%, Jackson Blake69%

    7.8 min/game · 3.81 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (93% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  4. #4CGYL2vs CAR0.43 xG

    Mikael Backlund14%, Joel Farabee11%, Samuel Honzek15%

    10.1 min/game · 2.79 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CAR 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Pyotr Kochetkov .899 (77% to start)
    • Kochetkov .840 on cycle shots
    • Together 1 of last 1
  5. #5CBJL1vs MIN0.42 xG

    Kent Johnson30%, Matthew Knies95%, Adam Fantilli92%

    10.5 min/game · 2.70 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • MIN 5v5 xGA/60 +0%
    • vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (58% to start)
    • Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  6. #6CGYL1vs CAR0.41 xG

    Ryan Strome4.0%, Yegor Sharangovich7.8%, Connor Zary10%

    10.9 min/game · 2.45 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CAR 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Pyotr Kochetkov .899 (77% to start)
    • Kochetkov .840 on cycle shots
    • Together 1 of last 1
  7. #7CBJL2vs MIN0.38 xG

    Charlie Coyle49%, Mathieu Olivier18%, Cole Sillinger12%

    9.7 min/game · 2.65 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • MIN 5v5 xGA/60 +0%
    • vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (58% to start)
    • Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2
  8. #8CGYL3vs CAR0.34 xG

    Morgan Frost23%, Matt Coronato40%, Matvei Gridin40%

    9.5 min/game · 2.34 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CAR 5v5 xGA/60 −4%
    • vs Pyotr Kochetkov .899 (77% to start)
    • Kochetkov .840 on cycle shots
    • Together 1 of last 1
  9. #9CARL2vs CGY0.31 xG

    Jordan Staal20%, Jordan Martinook4.3%, Nikolaj Ehlers93%

    6.9 min/game · 2.58 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • CGY 5v5 xGA/60 +8%
    • vs Dustin Wolf .897 (93% to start)
    • Wolf .842 on rebounds
    • Together 3 of last 3
  10. #10CBJPP1vs MIN0.26 xG

    Charlie Coyle49%, Zach Werenski100%, Kent Johnson30%, Matthew Knies95%, Adam Fantilli92%

    2.3 min/game · 6.51 xGF/60 · P(intact) 95%

    • MIN shorthanded time +6%
    • MIN PK xGA/60 +16%
    • vs Jesper Wallstedt .916 (58% to start)
    • Wallstedt .837 on rebounds
    • Together 2 of last 2

By game

CBJ @ MIN

CAR @ CGY

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.