Colorado Avalanche vs. Buffalo SabresOct 11, 2018

FinalThursday, Oct 11, 2018· KeyBank Center

away

Colorado AvalancheCOL

6

@

home

Buffalo SabresBUF

1

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
COL	3	1	2	6		COL	11	8	11	30
BUF	0	1	0	1		BUF	11	12	8	31

: COL 43BUF 58
: COL 2.67BUF 3.19
PP goals: COL 2BUF 0
Hits: COL 20BUF 15
Blocks: COL 10BUF 2
PIM: COL 12BUF 8
: COL 43%BUF 57%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Colorado Avalanche rout Buffalo Sabres 6–1

Colorado Avalanche beat Buffalo Sabres 6–1 at BUF. Mikko Rantanen (COL) led the scoring with 0G 3A. COL's first power-play unit (Barrie, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen and Jost) scored 1 power-play goal on 4 attempts in 5:47 together.

Points
Mikko Rantanen had 3 assists (3 points) on 1 shot in 17:13.Rantanen
Points
Nathan MacKinnon had two goals (2 points) on 4 shots in 19:20.MacKinnon
Points
Tyson Barrie had 2 assists (2 points) in 19:58.Barrie
PP1
COL's first power-play unit (Barrie, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen and Jost) scored 1 power-play goal on 4 attempts in 5:47 together.Barrie Landeskog MacKinnon Rantanen Jost
Luck
COL scored 6 goals on 2.67 expected goals (43 attempts), finishing well above its chances.
New line
New look for BUF: Skinner–Thompson–Mittelstadt skated 5:21 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (72.7% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Skinner Thompson Mittelstadt
Luck
BUF scored 1 goal on 3.19 expected goals (58 attempts), well short of its chances.
Usage
Gabriel Bourque (COL) played 15:15, +5:37 up on his 9:38 season average over 54 games.Bourque

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← COL attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
COL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 101 of 101 attempts · BUF 58 · COL 43

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
COL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
COL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: COL 34% of the game, BUF 38%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

COL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	COL	BUF
	34	46
	2.02	1.69
	2.00	1.62
	8	7
	5	4
	7	6
	−0.053	+0.054
	34%	38%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Colorado Avalanche

L1Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen
10:1632% CF
L2Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost
8:5083% CF
L3Soderberg – Bourque – Nieto
7:4436% CF
L4Calvert – Compher – Kamenev
5:3550% CF
D1Nemeth – Zadorov
11:0929% CF
D2Cole – Barrie
9:3447% CF
D3Johnson – Girard
7:4664% CF

PP1Barrie – Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen – Jost
5:47100% CF
PP2Soderberg – Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher – Girard
1:00100% CF
PK1FSoderberg – Bourque
2:43
PK2FCalvert – Compher
1:48
PK1DJohnson – Cole
6:50
PK2DNemeth – Zadorov
2:09

Current COL line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Sheary – Reinhart – Eichel
8:4364% CF
L2Skinner – Thompson – Mittelstadt
5:2173% CF
L3Pominville – Girgensons – Rodrigues
4:5033% CF
L4Okposo – Berglund – Larsson
3:5633% CF
D1Scandella – Ristolainen
10:4063% CF
D2McCabe – Dahlin
9:2327% CF
D3Beaulieu – Nelson
9:1260% CF

PP1Okposo – Ristolainen – Sheary – Reinhart – Eichel
9:3493% CF
PP2Skinner – Rodrigues – Thompson – Mittelstadt – Dahlin
2:5467% CF
PK1FGirgensons – Rodrigues
3:37
PK2FBerglund – Larsson
1:48
PK1DScandella – Ristolainen
5:01
PK2DBeaulieu – Nelson
0:46

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

10:55
COLTyson JostPP (Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen)tip-in0.14 xG
COL: Barrie, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, JostBUF: Beaulieu, Girgensons, Rodrigues, Nelson
COL 1 – 0 BUF
13:20
COLColin WilsonPP (Samuel Girard, J.T. Compher)slap0.03 xG
COL: Soderberg, Wilson, Kerfoot, Compher, GirardBUF: Scandella, Ristolainen, Sheary, Eichel
COL 2 – 0 BUF
16:30
COLCarl Soderberg (Gabriel Bourque)wrist0.13 xG
COL: Soderberg, Johnson, Bourque, Nieto, GirardBUF: Okposo, Berglund, Scandella, Larsson, Ristolainen
COL 3 – 0 BUF

2nd period

17:05
BUFNathan Beaulieu (Rasmus Dahlin)wrist0.02 xG
COL: Cole, Calvert, Nemeth, Compher, ZadorovBUF: Skinner, Beaulieu, Rodrigues, Thompson, Dahlin
COL 3 – 1 BUF
17:33
COLNathan MacKinnon (Mikko Rantanen)wrist0.10 xG
COL: Barrie, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, GirardBUF: Pominville, Scandella, Larsson, Girgensons, McCabe
COL 4 – 1 BUF

3rd period

15:23
COLAlexander Kerfoot (Tyson Barrie)wrist0.16 xG
COL: Cole, Calvert, Barrie, Kerfoot, JostBUF: McCabe, Sheary, Reinhart, Eichel, Dahlin
COL 5 – 1 BUF
17:01
COLNathan MacKinnon (Mikko Rantanen)wrist0.19 xG
COL: Nemeth, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Zadorov, RantanenBUF: Pominville, Scandella, Girgensons, Ristolainen, Rodrigues
COL 6 – 1 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Colorado Avalanche

COL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Nathan MacKinnon C	L1	2	0	2	+2	4	0.42	0	0	2	19:20	—	—	28	40
Gabriel Landeskog L	L1	0	0	0	+2	4	0.40	0	0	0	17:19	—	—	30	44
Mikko Rantanen R	L1	0	3	3	+2	1	0.21	1	1	0	17:13	—	—	28	40
Tyson Jost C	L2	1	0	1	+1	3	0.41	0	0	0	16:22	—	—	79	79
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	1	0	1	+1	3	0.28	1	0	4	12:47	—	—	75	76
Colin Wilson C	L2	1	0	1	0	5	0.19	2	0	0	10:36	—	—	85	73
Matt Nieto L	L3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.15	1	1	0	16:15	—	—	36	81
Gabriel Bourque L	L3	0	1	1	+1	2	0.02	6	1	0	15:15	—	—	33	77
Carl Soderberg C	L3	1	0	1	+1	3	0.27	1	2	0	14:24	—	—	31	76
J.T. Compher L	L4	0	1	1	-1	1	0.03	0	0	0	14:17	—	—	40	36
Matt Calvert L	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	0	0	2	11:40	—	—	43	50
Vladislav Kamenev C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	0	2	7:02	—	—	36	32
Patrik Nemeth D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	19:29	—	—	26	45
Nikita Zadorov D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	2	15:55	—	—	37	56
Ian Cole D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	2	0	21:38	—	—	36	46
Tyson Barrie D	D2	0	2	2	+2	0	0.09	1	1	0	19:58	—	—	44	49
Erik Johnson D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	21:17	—	—	56	79
Samuel Girard D	D3	0	1	1	+2	2	0.01	0	0	0	15:20	—	—	48	59

COL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Semyon Varlamov(start)	W	31	30	1	.968	3.19	59:53

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Sam Reinhart C	L1	0	0	0	-1	3	0.60	0	0	0	21:00	—	—	58	60
Jack Eichel C	L1	0	0	0	-1	5	0.17	0	0	0	20:03	—	—	65	67
Conor Sheary L	L1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	0	1	0	18:06	—	—	60	70
Jeff Skinner L	L2	0	0	0	+1	2	0.66	0	0	0	17:14	—	—	62	56
Tage Thompson C	L2	0	0	0	+1	3	0.17	4	0	0	14:10	—	—	71	49
Casey Mittelstadt C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.26	2	0	0	13:37	—	—	65	66
Evan Rodrigues C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	14:08	—	—	46	20
Zemgus Girgensons C	L3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.05	1	0	0	13:02	—	—	46	19
Jason Pominville R	L3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.04	0	0	0	8:02	—	—	50	22
Kyle Okposo R	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.38	2	0	0	20:34	—	—	50	40
Patrik Berglund C	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.17	1	1	0	13:23	—	—	55	39
Johan Larsson L	L4	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	2	11:44	—	—	46	14
Rasmus Ristolainen D	D1	0	0	0	-2	4	0.12	3	0	0	27:07	—	—	61	42
Marco Scandella D	D1	0	0	0	-3	2	0.04	0	0	0	17:42	—	—	62	40
Rasmus Dahlin D	D2	0	1	1	0	1	0.20	1	0	0	18:09	—	—	56	51
Jake McCabe D	D2	0	0	0	-2	0	0.14	0	0	2	15:15	—	—	36	20
Nathan Beaulieu D	D3	1	0	1	+1	2	0.16	0	0	2	15:10	—	—	74	71
Casey Nelson D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	13:59	—	—	50	54

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Carter Hutton(start)	L	30	24	6	.800	2.67	60:00

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.