Colorado Avalanche vs. Buffalo SabresOct 13, 2025

FinalMonday, Oct 13, 2025· KeyBank Center

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
COL	1	2	0	3		COL	10	12	15	37
BUF	1	0	0	1		BUF	13	11	4	28

: COL 63BUF 66
: COL 3.52BUF 2.04
PP goals: COL 0BUF 0
Hits: COL 20BUF 11
Blocks: COL 21BUF 11
PIM: COL 6BUF 10
: COL 56%BUF 44%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Colorado Avalanche beat Buffalo Sabres 3–1

Colorado Avalanche beat Buffalo Sabres 3–1 at BUF. Nathan MacKinnon (COL) led the scoring with 2G 0A. New look for BUF: Tuch–Thompson–Doan skated 10:58 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (65.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.

Points
Nathan MacKinnon had two goals (2 points) on 5 shots in 21:47.MacKinnon
Points
Cale Makar had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 25:22.Makar
Points
Martin Necas had 2 assists (2 points) on 3 shots in 18:27.Necas
New line
New look for BUF: Tuch–Thompson–Doan skated 10:58 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (65.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Tuch Thompson Doan
New line
New look for BUF: Danforth–Quinn–Kulich skated 9:58 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (31.8% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Danforth Quinn Kulich
Goalie
Alex Lyon (BUF) faced 37 shots and stopped 34 (.919), +10 against a season average of 27.2; the loss.Lyon
New line
New look for BUF: Malenstyn–Dunne–Kozak skated 5:24 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (60% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Malenstyn Dunne Kozak
New line
New look for BUF: Zucker–McLeod–Krebs skated 8:37 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (53.8% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Zucker McLeod Krebs

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← COL attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
COL
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 129 of 129 attempts · BUF 66 · COL 63

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
COL
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
COL pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: COL 41% of the game, BUF 22%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

COL

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Head-to-head matchups

BUF skaters (rows) against COL skaters (columns) at 5v5. Square size is time together; colour is xGF% from the BUF side.

Matchup matrix

BUF xGF% 4060square size = TOI together · blank = under 1:00

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	COL	BUF
	53	60
	2.84	1.75
	2.75	1.66
	12	13
	2	2
	25	30
	+0.061	−0.060
	41%	22%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Colorado Avalanche

L1Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas
10:0064% CF
L2Olofsson – Colton – Drury
7:1059% CF
L3Kelly – Kiviranta – Brindley
5:4813% CF
L4Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin
5:0536% CF
D1Toews – Makar
12:2955% CF
D2Burns – Manson
8:5125% CF
D3Solovyov – Malinski
8:3018% CF

PP1Nelson – Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas – Makar
4:42100% CF
PP2Burns – Landeskog – MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Olofsson
1:35100% CF
PK1FNelson – Nichushkin
1:37
PK2FKelly – Drury
1:24
PK1DBurns – Manson
3:00
PK2DToews – Makar
1:22

Current COL line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Tuch – Thompson – Doan
10:5866% CF
L2Danforth – Quinn – Kulich
9:5832% CF
L3Zucker – McLeod – Krebs
8:3754% CF
L4Malenstyn – Dunne – Kozak
5:2460% CF
D1Dahlin – Byram
15:5858% CF
D2Timmins – Power
9:4444% CF
D3Bryson – Johnson
7:5359% CF

PP1Zucker – Thompson – Dahlin – Quinn – Kulich
3:1683% CF
PP2Tuch – McLeod – Byram – Doan – Power
2:12100% CF
PK1FMalenstyn – Danforth
3:57
PK2FTuch – McLeod
2:20
PK1DTimmins – Power
4:06
PK2DDahlin – Byram
0:31

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

3:14
COLNathan MacKinnon (Martin Necas, Brent Burns)backhand0.06 xG
COL: Burns, Manson, Lehkonen, MacKinnon, NecasBUF: Zucker, Timmins, McLeod, Krebs, Power
COL 1 – 0 BUF
16:32
BUFTage Thompson (Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin)wrist0.04 xG
COL: Manson, Toews, Colton, Drury, BrindleyBUF: Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Byram, Doan
COL 1 – 1 BUF

2nd period

4:32
COLCale Makar (Valeri Nichushkin)snap0.27 xG
COL: Nelson, Landeskog, Nichushkin, Toews, MakarBUF: Danforth, Dahlin, Byram, Quinn, Kulich
COL 2 – 1 BUF
11:59
COLNathan MacKinnon (Martin Necas, Cale Makar)wrist0.13 xG
COL: MacKinnon, Toews, Necas, MakarBUF: Timmins, McLeod, Power, Kulich
COL 3 – 1 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Colorado Avalanche

COL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Nathan MacKinnon C	L1	2	0	2	+2	5	0.59	0	1	0	21:47	—	—	59	66
Martin Necas C	L1	0	2	2	+2	3	0.37	1	0	0	18:27	—	—	54	58
Artturi Lehkonen L	L1	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	17:50	—	—	63	78
Jack Drury C	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.57	0	2	2	13:40	—	—	48	77
Victor Olofsson L	L2	0	0	0	0	4	0.34	1	0	0	13:31	—	—	45	56
Ross Colton C	L2	0	0	0	-1	3	0.36	1	1	0	13:23	—	—	48	61
Parker Kelly C	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.23	3	0	0	12:27	—	—	35	83
Joel Kiviranta L	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	11:36	—	—	19	48
Gavin Brindley C	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	0	0	0	10:06	—	—	25	76
Brock Nelson C	L4	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	1	4	0	16:23	—	—	28	29
Valeri Nichushkin R	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.08	1	0	0	15:46	—	—	57	63
Gabriel Landeskog L	L4	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	0	0	0	13:35	—	—	58	64
Cale Makar D	D1	1	1	2	+2	4	0.41	3	2	2	25:22	—	—	60	76
Devon Toews D	D1	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	0	1	0	23:34	—	—	56	72
Josh Manson D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	2	0	18:54	—	—	40	48
Brent Burns D	D2	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	0	1	2	18:17	—	—	38	39
Sam Malinski D	D3	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	1	2	0	15:21	—	—	39	60
Ilya Solovyov D	D3	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	2	3	0	12:04	—	—	33	46

COL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Scott Wedgewood(start)	W	28	27	1	.964	2.04	59:57

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Tage Thompson C	L1	1	0	1	+1	4	0.25	0	0	0	20:14	—	—	68	51
Alex Tuch R	L1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.37	0	1	4	18:28	—	—	60	48
Josh Doan R	L1	0	0	0	+1	4	0.30	1	0	0	17:34	—	—	67	50
Justin Danforth R	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	17:35	—	—	27	14
Jiri Kulich C	L2	0	0	0	-2	4	0.35	0	1	0	16:09	—	—	32	20
Jack Quinn R	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	14:49	—	—	30	20
Ryan McLeod C	L3	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	0	16:09	—	—	44	8
Jason Zucker L	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	0	0	15:53	—	—	63	35
Peyton Krebs C	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	0	0	0	11:07	—	—	63	15
Beck Malenstyn L	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	2	0	0	11:34	—	—	58	75
Tyson Kozak C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	4	0	0	8:35	—	—	64	50
Josh Dunne C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	0	0	6:25	—	—	59	44
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	1	1	0	4	0.21	1	1	4	27:19	—	—	53	36
Bowen Byram D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	0	1	0	25:59	—	—	58	39
Owen Power D	D2	0	0	0	-2	3	0.02	0	2	0	23:24	—	—	41	13
Conor Timmins D	D2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	0	4	2	18:04	—	—	46	16
Jacob Bryson D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.22	0	0	0	11:50	—	—	63	67
Ryan Johnson D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	10:32	—	—	58	63

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Alex Lyon(start)	L	37	34	3	.919	3.52	58:20

Goal anatomy

Animated replays from NHL EDGE tracking, with the entry, passes and shot speed for each goal.

Nathan MacKinnon (COL) 1st 3:14 · assists Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Rush · carried in · 44.0 mph shot · 5.4 s from entry to goal.

Nathan MacKinnon · 1st 3:14 · COL

Play: rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: No
Passes: 3
Shot: 44.0 mph
Distance: 18 ft
Entry to goal: 5.4 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Tage Thompson · 1st 16:32 · BUF

Play: turnover-forecheck
Passes: 1
Shot: 77.9 mph
Distance: 55 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Cale Makar · 2nd 4:32 · COL

Play: rush
Entry: loose
Odd man: No
Passes: 0
Shot: 37.3 mph
Distance: 8 ft
Entry to goal: 6.2 s
Type: one-timer

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Nathan MacKinnon · 2nd 11:59 · COL

Play: rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: No
Passes: 2
Shot: 54.4 mph
Distance: 30 ft
Entry to goal: 6.0 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.