Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay LightningOct 3, 2026

Time TBDSaturday, Oct 3, 2026

away

Washington CapitalsWSH

at

home

Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Preview

Probable goalies, start odds, schedule edge and each team's lines from its last game.

Schedule Edge

Edge: TBL +13.4 pts

WSHaway−13.3 pts

Back-to-back · 942 km travel

B2B vs rested TBL −9.3 pts
Backup likely (99%) −4.0 pts

TBLhome+13.5 pts

1 day rest · 1,620 km travel

WSH on a B2B +9.3 pts
WSH backup likely (99%) +4.2 pts

TBL has the schedule edge (+13.4 pts net win probability): wsh on a b2b, wsh backup likely (99%), b2b vs rested tbl, backup likely (99%).

· Every game this week →

Washington Capitals

Goalie: Charlie Lindgren Confirmed
Start probability: Charlie Lindgren97%Confirmed
Schedule: Second of a back-to-back
Last game: W 2–1 at CBJ · Apr 14

L1McMichael – Lapierre – Leonard
9:35
L2Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier
9:27
L3Wilson – Protas – Protas
8:20
L4Duhaime – Sourdif – Miroshnichenko
7:41
D1van Riemsdyk – Chychrun
17:10
D2Roy – Hutson
13:57
D3McIlrath – Fehérváry
11:31
PP1Ovechkin – Strome – Sourdif – Hutson – Protas
3:13

Projected WSH lines →·WSH goalies →·Goalie start planner →

Tampa Bay Lightning

Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy Projected
Start probability: Andrei Vasilevskiy77%Projected
Dennis Hildeby23%
Schedule: Rested
Last game: L 1–5 at NYR · Oct 1

L1Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel
8:05
L2Kucherov – Point – Mikheyev
6:58
L3Harkins – Goncalves – Geekie
5:04
L4Girgensons – Viel – Holmberg
4:59
D1McDonagh – Cernak
11:26
D2Hedman – D'Astous
11:01
D3Carlson – Moser
9:29
PP1Carlson – Kucherov – Guentzel – Point – Hagel
7:18

Projected TBL lines →·TBL goalies →·Goalie start planner →

Game day: all games on Oct 3.

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.