Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Edmonton OilersMar 1, 2023

FinalWednesday, Mar 1, 2023· Rogers Place

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

2

@

home

Edmonton OilersEDM

5

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	0	1	2		TOR	11	6	11	28
EDM	3	2	0	5		EDM	14	11	7	32

: TOR 51EDM 55
: TOR 1.73EDM 3.19
PP goals: TOR 1EDM 1
Hits: TOR 22EDM 25
Blocks: TOR 13EDM 14
PIM: TOR 13EDM 11
: TOR 56%EDM 44%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Edmonton Oilers beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–2

Edmonton Oilers beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–2 at home. Connor McDavid (EDM) led the scoring with 2G 1A. TOR's first power-play unit (Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner and Matthews) scored 1 power-play goal on 6 attempts in 3:33 together.

Points
Connor McDavid had two goals and an assist (3 points) on 3 shots in 21:44.McDavid
Points
Klim Kostin had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 1 shot in 9:25.Kostin
Points
Mitch Marner had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 3 shots in 20:36.Marner
Points
Zach Hyman had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 7 shots in 22:30.Hyman
PP1
TOR's first power-play unit (Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner and Matthews) scored 1 power-play goal on 6 attempts in 3:33 together.Tavares Rielly Nylander Marner Matthews
New line
New look for EDM: Hyman–McDavid–Ryan skated 5:22 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (91.7% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Hyman McDavid Ryan
New line
New look for TOR: Lafferty–Acciari–Aston-Reese skated 5:55 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (33.3% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Lafferty Acciari Aston-Reese
Luck
EDM scored 5 goals on 3.19 expected goals (55 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)EDM attacks right (top on phones) →

EDM
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 106 of 106 attempts · EDM 55 · TOR 51

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

EDM
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

EDM pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 16% of the game, EDM 45%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

EDM

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	EDM
	48	56
	1.51	3.03
	1.46	2.93
	1	17
	2	1
	10	17
	+0.047	−0.047
	16%	45%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Bunting – Marner – Matthews
13:4057% CF
L2Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Kampf
6:4933% CF
L3O'Reilly – Tavares – Nylander
6:3664% CF
L4Lafferty – Acciari – Aston-Reese
5:5533% CF
D1Brodie – McCabe
15:4738% CF
D2Holl – Rielly
14:1952% CF
D3Giordano – Liljegren
10:0450% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
3:3375% CF
PP2Giordano – O'Reilly – Jarnkrok – Bunting – Liljegren
0:36100% CF
PK1FKerfoot – Acciari
1:32
PK2FJarnkrok – Kampf
1:29
PK1DGiordano – Brodie
1:08
PK2DRielly – McCabe
0:44

Current TOR line combinations →

Edmonton Oilers

L1Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
9:5153% CF
L2Hyman – McDavid – Ryan
5:2292% CF
L3Janmark – Foegele – McLeod
4:1267% CF
D1Ceci – Nurse
14:0657% CF
D2Ekholm – Bouchard
12:1352% CF
D3Kulak – Desharnais
9:5153% CF

PP1Hyman – Nurse – Draisaitl – McDavid – Bouchard
3:33100% CF
PP2Kulak – Nurse – Foegele – Yamamoto – McLeod
0:58100% CF
PK1FNugent-Hopkins – Janmark
2:02
PK2FRyan – Yamamoto
0:36
PK1DEkholm – Desharnais
1:58
PK2DCeci – Nurse
1:07

Current EDM line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

3:49
EDMConnor McDavidPP (Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)wrist0.03 xG
TOR: Brodie, Holl, Marner, KampfEDM: Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, McDavid, Bouchard
TOR 0 – 1 EDM
12:15
TORDavid Kampf (Mitch Marner)snap0.11 xG
TOR: Holl, Rielly, Kerfoot, Marner, KampfEDM: Nugent-Hopkins, Ceci, Nurse, Draisaitl, Yamamoto
TOR 1 – 1 EDM
13:53
EDMConnor McDavid (Klim Kostin, Zach Hyman)wrist0.07 xG
TOR: Giordano, O'Reilly, Tavares, Nylander, LiljegrenEDM: Ekholm, Hyman, McDavid, Kostin, Bouchard
TOR 1 – 2 EDM
18:05
EDMZach Hyman (Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid)wrist0.02 xG
TOR: Tavares, Holl, Rielly, Nylander, AcciariEDM: Ekholm, Hyman, McDavid, Ryan, Bouchard
TOR 1 – 3 EDM

2nd period

8:46
EDMKailer Yamamoto (Cody Ceci, Darnell Nurse)tip-in0.04 xG
TOR: Holl, Rielly, Bunting, Marner, MatthewsEDM: Nugent-Hopkins, Ceci, Nurse, Draisaitl, Yamamoto
TOR 1 – 4 EDM
17:12
EDMKlim Kostin (Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele)wrist0.16 xG
TOR: Brodie, Kerfoot, Nylander, Liljegren, KampfEDM: Kulak, Foegele, Desharnais, Kostin, McLeod
TOR 1 – 5 EDM

3rd period

1:08
TORMitch MarnerPP (Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews)snap0.07 xG
TOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, MatthewsEDM: Ekholm, Ryan, Desharnais, McLeod
TOR 2 – 5 EDM

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	1	1	2	0	3	0.09	0	1	0	20:36	—	—	61	24
Auston Matthews C	L1	0	1	1	-1	2	0.01	1	1	0	20:00	—	—	52	8
Michael Bunting L	L1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	16:52	—	—	48	7
David Kampf C	L2	1	0	1	0	2	0.11	0	0	0	14:12	—	—	38	20
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	13:15	—	—	57	55
Calle Jarnkrok C	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	0	1	0	12:25	—	—	33	27
William Nylander R	L3	0	0	0	-3	1	0.02	0	1	4	16:47	—	—	38	31
John Tavares C	L3	0	0	0	-2	2	0.40	3	0	0	15:33	—	—	44	46
Ryan O'Reilly C	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.12	1	0	0	14:19	—	—	62	62
Noel Acciari C	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	12:36	—	—	33	41
Sam Lafferty C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	0	1	2	11:56	—	—	43	50
Zachary Aston-Reese L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	1	0	0	9:12	—	—	31	24
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.10	3	0	0	23:14	—	—	44	35
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	2	1	2	20:59	—	—	42	32
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	1	1	-1	1	0.12	2	2	0	21:11	—	—	47	34
Justin Holl D	D2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	4	3	5	20:08	—	—	51	35
Mark Giordano D	D3	0	0	0	-1	5	0.28	1	0	0	17:25	—	—	43	29
Timothy Liljegren D	D3	0	0	0	-2	2	0.09	0	1	0	12:52	—	—	48	34

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Ilya Samsonov(start)	L	32	27	5	.844	3.19	60:00

Edmonton Oilers

EDM skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Leon Draisaitl C	L1	0	1	1	0	1	0.09	1	1	0	21:25	—	—	42	65
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	L1	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	1	5	17:59	—	—	39	45
Kailer Yamamoto R	L1	1	0	1	0	4	0.16	2	0	0	13:25	—	—	50	62
Zach Hyman L	L2	1	1	2	+2	7	0.91	0	0	2	22:30	—	—	67	88
Connor McDavid C	L2	2	1	3	+2	3	0.43	0	0	4	21:44	—	—	69	84
Derek Ryan C	L2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.15	1	0	0	14:23	—	—	67	69
Mattias Janmark C	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	18:21	—	—	50	60
Warren Foegele L	L3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.07	0	0	0	14:23	—	—	48	51
Ryan McLeod C	L3	0	1	1	+1	2	0.14	0	0	0	13:19	—	—	58	64
Darnell Nurse D	D1	0	1	1	0	5	0.55	1	6	0	24:56	—	—	58	76
Cody Ceci D	D1	0	1	1	0	0	0.02	1	0	0	17:55	—	—	54	79
Mattias Ekholm D	D2	0	1	1	+2	2	0.05	3	2	0	20:50	—	—	45	59
Evan Bouchard D	D2	0	0	0	+2	1	0.06	0	3	0	19:05	—	—	59	60
Vincent Desharnais D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	14:54	—	—	46	54
Brett Kulak D	D3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	0	0	12:44	—	—	55	65
Klim Kostin C	—	1	1	2	+2	1	0.17	6	0	0	9:25	—	—	47	62
Devin Shore C	—	0	0	0	0	3	0.35	1	0	0	8:58	—	—	53	61
Philip Broberg D	—	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	5	0	0	8:05	—	—	63	83

EDM goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Stuart Skinner(start)	W	28	26	2	.929	1.73	60:00

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.