Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo SabresNov 29, 2019

FinalFriday, Nov 29, 2019· KeyBank Center

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

4

@

home

Buffalo SabresBUF

6

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	1	1	2	4		TOR	12	6	11	29
BUF	0	4	2	6		BUF	13	13	10	36

: TOR 51BUF 48
: TOR 3.50BUF 3.35
PP goals: TOR 0BUF 0
Hits: TOR 8BUF 6
Blocks: TOR 5BUF 10
PIM: TOR 6BUF 10
: TOR 39%BUF 61%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Buffalo Sabres beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6–4

Buffalo Sabres beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6–4 at home. Jack Eichel (BUF) led the scoring with 2G 1A. BUF scored 6 goals on 3.35 expected goals (48 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Points
Jack Eichel had two goals and an assist (3 points) on 8 shots in 21:36.Eichel
Points
John Tavares had two goals (2 points) on 3 shots in 22:51.Tavares
Points
Jimmy Vesey had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 5 shots in 15:36.Vesey
Points
Kasperi Kapanen had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 3 shots in 15:04.Kapanen
Points
Marco Scandella had 2 assists (2 points) on 3 shots in 14:47.Scandella
Luck
BUF scored 6 goals on 3.35 expected goals (48 attempts), finishing well above its chances.
Usage
Justin Holl (TOR) played 12:25, −6:11 down on his 18:36 season average over 67 games.Holl
Goalie
Michael Hutchinson (TOR) faced 35 shots and stopped 30 (.857), +8 against a season average of 27.4; the loss.Hutchinson

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 99 of 99 attempts · BUF 48 · TOR 51

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 32% of the game, BUF 20%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	BUF
	44	46
	2.56	2.62
	2.44	2.56
	10	7
	0	1
	7	10
	−0.072	+0.072
	32%	20%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews
12:3343% CF
L2Tavares – Hyman – Mikheyev
11:4055% CF
L3Spezza – Petan – Kapanen
5:1950% CF
L4Gauthier – Engvall – Timashov
3:05100% CF
D1Rielly – Ceci
10:5628% CF
D2Barrie – Dermott
8:3359% CF
D3Muzzin – Holl
7:3356% CF

PP1Tavares – Barrie – Rielly – Nylander – Matthews
5:0280% CF
PP2Spezza – Muzzin – Johnsson – Petan – Kapanen
1:22100% CF
PK1FHyman – Engvall
1:00
PK2FKapanen – Mikheyev
0:38
PK1DMuzzin – Ceci
2:28
PK2DHoll – Rielly
0:48

Current TOR line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel
12:5554% CF
L2Larsson – Skinner – Sheary
9:4750% CF
L3Johansson – Vesey – Mittelstadt
7:3455% CF
D1Bogosian – McCabe
7:1275% CF
D2Scandella – Jokiharju
6:4575% CF
D3Miller – Ristolainen
6:2517% CF

PP1Johansson – Ristolainen – Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel
2:17100% CF
PP2Skinner – Miller – Sheary – Montour – Mittelstadt
0:33
PK1FLarsson – Girgensons
2:43
PK2FVesey – Asplund
2:01
PK1DBogosian – McCabe
4:19
PK2DScandella – Ristolainen
2:15

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

18:54
TORJohn Tavares (Ilya Mikheyev)wrist0.14 xG
TOR: Tavares, Holl, Hyman, Rielly, MikheyevBUF: Johansson, Skinner, Miller, Reinhart, Jokiharju
TOR 1 – 0 BUF

2nd period

1:21
TORJohn Tavares (Kasperi Kapanen)wrap-around0.02 xG
TOR: Tavares, Barrie, Holl, KapanenBUF: Johansson, Miller, Ristolainen, Olofsson
TOR 2 – 0 BUF
5:45
BUFJeff Skinner (Johan Larsson, Brandon Montour)snap0.13 xG
TOR: Tavares, Barrie, Kapanen, Dermott, MikheyevBUF: Larsson, Skinner, Ristolainen, Sheary, Montour
TOR 2 – 1 BUF
9:43
BUFJack Eichel (Zach Bogosian)wrist0.10 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, KapanenBUF: Bogosian, Johansson, McCabe, Sheary, Eichel
TOR 2 – 2 BUF
12:08
BUFCasey Mittelstadt (Marco Scandella, Jimmy Vesey)deflected0.12 xG
TOR: Barrie, Johnsson, Nylander, Dermott, MatthewsBUF: Scandella, Johansson, Vesey, Mittelstadt, Jokiharju
TOR 2 – 3 BUF
18:54
BUFVictor Olofsson (Jack Eichel, Marco Scandella)wrist0.03 xG
TOR: Spezza, Muzzin, Ceci, Petan, GauthierBUF: Scandella, Ristolainen, Olofsson, Eichel, Asplund
TOR 2 – 4 BUF

3rd period

6:50
TORDmytro Timashov (Jason Spezza, Morgan Rielly)slap0.03 xG
TOR: Spezza, Muzzin, Holl, Gauthier, TimashovBUF: Bogosian, Sheary, Montour, Asplund, Mittelstadt
TOR 3 – 4 BUF
8:34
BUFJimmy Veseybackhand0.13 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Holl, Johnsson, Nylander, MatthewsBUF: Vesey, Ristolainen, Montour, Olofsson, Eichel
TOR 3 – 5 BUF
12:10
TORKasperi Kapanen (Nic Petan, Justin Holl)wrist0.20 xG
TOR: Muzzin, Tavares, Rielly, Petan, KapanenBUF: Johansson, McCabe, Reinhart, Montour, Mittelstadt
TOR 4 – 5 BUF
19:33
BUFJack EichelEN (Rasmus Ristolainen)wrist0.42 xG
TOR: Tavares, Barrie, Rielly, Johnsson, Nylander, MatthewsBUF: Bogosian, Johansson, Vesey, Ristolainen, Eichel
TOR 4 – 6 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Auston Matthews C	L1	0	0	0	-3	4	0.34	0	2	0	24:48	—	—	48	52
William Nylander R	L1	0	0	0	-4	4	0.64	0	0	0	23:10	—	—	39	41
Andreas Johnsson L	L1	0	0	0	-3	0	0.00	1	0	0	18:49	—	—	41	41
John Tavares C	L2	2	0	2	0	3	0.44	0	1	0	22:51	—	—	50	61
Ilya Mikheyev R	L2	0	1	1	0	2	0.50	0	0	0	16:52	—	—	50	58
Zach Hyman L	L2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.18	0	0	0	15:04	—	—	61	70
Kasperi Kapanen R	L3	1	1	2	0	3	0.54	0	0	0	15:04	—	—	43	27
Nic Petan C	L3	0	1	1	0	1	0.20	0	0	0	12:43	—	—	50	41
Jason Spezza C	L3	0	1	1	0	2	0.07	0	1	2	8:29	—	—	43	12
Pierre Engvall L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	9:18	—	—	67	55
Frederik Gauthier C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	5:46	—	—	67	31
Dmytro Timashov L	L4	1	0	1	+1	1	0.03	4	0	0	5:11	—	—	80	53
Morgan Rielly D	D1	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	27:39	—	—	39	56
Cody Ceci D	D1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.13	0	0	0	22:34	—	—	35	37
Tyson Barrie D	D2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.07	0	0	0	22:44	—	—	59	63
Travis Dermott D	D2	0	0	0	-2	3	0.05	1	0	2	13:16	—	—	55	47
Jake Muzzin D	D3	0	0	0	-1	4	0.32	1	1	0	19:09	—	—	58	56
Justin Holl D	D3	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	12:25	—	—	55	38

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Michael Hutchinson(start)	L	35	30	5	.857	2.93	58:08

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Jack Eichel C	L1	2	1	3	+4	8	0.84	0	0	2	21:36	—	—	61	65
Sam Reinhart C	L1	0	0	0	-2	1	0.19	0	1	0	18:33	—	—	57	51
Victor Olofsson L	L1	1	0	1	+1	5	0.38	0	0	0	17:47	—	—	57	63
Johan Larsson L	L2	0	1	1	+1	1	0.06	0	1	0	18:02	—	—	53	80
Conor Sheary L	L2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	2	15:06	—	—	45	70
Jeff Skinner L	L2	1	0	1	0	2	0.16	0	0	0	14:45	—	—	35	34
Marcus Johansson L	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	1	2	16:56	—	—	39	37
Jimmy Vesey L	L3	1	1	2	+3	5	0.40	0	0	0	15:36	—	—	63	46
Casey Mittelstadt C	L3	1	0	1	-1	2	0.26	0	0	0	12:59	—	—	48	40
Zach Bogosian D	D1	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	1	1	0	19:23	—	—	57	60
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	19:07	—	—	55	53
Henri Jokiharju D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	0	2	15:18	—	—	63	46
Marco Scandella D	D2	0	2	2	+2	3	0.17	1	1	0	14:47	—	—	59	49
Rasmus Ristolainen D	D3	0	1	1	+3	0	0.15	1	1	0	19:16	—	—	45	57
Colin Miller D	D3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	1	0	0	13:30	—	—	35	34
Brandon Montour D	—	0	1	1	0	1	0.09	0	1	0	15:43	—	—	35	54
Zemgus Girgensons C	—	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	11:26	—	—	40	44
Rasmus Asplund C	—	0	0	0	0	3	0.57	0	1	2	10:43	—	—	50	49

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Linus Ullmark(start)	W	29	25	4	.862	3.50	59:27

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.