Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo SabresMar 13, 2022

FinalSunday, Mar 13, 2022· Tim Hortons Field

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	2	0	2		TOR	9	18	9	36
BUF	0	2	3	5		BUF	14	9	15	38

: TOR 72BUF 54
: TOR 3.83BUF 2.95
PP goals: TOR 0BUF 0
Hits: TOR 30BUF 30
Blocks: TOR 7BUF 17
PIM: TOR 32BUF 30
: TOR 62%BUF 38%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Buffalo Sabres beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–2

Buffalo Sabres beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–2 at home. Vinnie Hinostroza (BUF) led the scoring with 2G 1A. New look for TOR: Tavares–Nylander–Kase skated 10:22 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (53.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.

Points
Vinnie Hinostroza had two goals and an assist (3 points) on 5 shots in 13:48.Hinostroza
Points
Peyton Krebs had two goals (2 points) on 2 shots in 14:20.Krebs
Points
Tage Thompson had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 18:38.Thompson
New line
New look for TOR: Tavares–Nylander–Kase skated 10:22 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (53.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Tavares Nylander Kase
Goalie
Petr Mrazek (TOR) faced 37 shots and stopped 33 (.892), +11 against a season average of 26.0; the loss.Mrazek
Goalie
Craig Anderson (BUF) faced 36 shots and stopped 34 (.944), +6 against a season average of 30.5; the win.Anderson
Luck
BUF scored 5 goals on 2.95 expected goals (54 attempts), finishing well above its chances.
Luck
TOR scored 2 goals on 3.82 expected goals (72 attempts), well short of its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 126 of 126 attempts · BUF 54 · TOR 72

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 34% of the game, BUF 19%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	BUF
	68	54
	3.00	2.80
	2.94	2.66
	11	7
	6	11
	18	19
	+0.097	−0.097
	34%	19%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Bunting – Marner – Matthews
12:2061% CF
L2Tavares – Nylander – Kase
10:2254% CF
L3Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev
7:4860% CF
L4Spezza – Simmonds – Kerfoot
6:4933% CF
D1Brodie – Holl
13:1456% CF
D2Rielly – Lyubushkin
6:4167% CF
D3Liljegren – Sandin
3:49100% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
2:5780% CF
PP2Spezza – Bunting – Kase – Sandin – Mikheyev
1:3050% CF
PK1FMarner – Kampf
2:09
PK2FKerfoot – Mikheyev
1:33
PK1DBrodie – Holl
3:14
PK2DRielly – Lyubushkin
1:22

Current TOR line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson
11:4138% CF
L2Hinostroza – Krebs – Cozens
10:4748% CF
L3Okposo – Olofsson – Mittelstadt
10:0933% CF
L4Eakin – Hayden – Asplund
7:5556% CF
D1Jokiharju – Dahlin
16:3044% CF
D2Bryson – Samuelsson
13:0229% CF
D3Pysyk – Hagg
9:5653% CF

PP1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson – Dahlin – Krebs
3:3333% CF
PP2Okposo – Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Jokiharju – Cozens
1:58
PK1FOkposo – Eakin
1:13
PK2FMittelstadt – Cozens
1:06
PK1DJokiharju – Samuelsson
1:18
PK2DPysyk – Hagg
1:17

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

2nd period

0:40
TOROndrej Kase (William Nylander, John Tavares)wrist0.01 xG
TOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Kase, LiljegrenBUF: Okposo, Olofsson, Mittelstadt, Bryson, Samuelsson
TOR 1 – 0 BUF
1:22
BUFPeyton Krebs (Vinnie Hinostroza, Robert Hagg)wrist0.11 xG
TOR: Tavares, Rielly, Liljegren, Kampf, MikheyevBUF: Pysyk, Hinostroza, Hagg, Krebs, Cozens
TOR 1 – 1 BUF
2:57
TORAuston Matthews (Alexander Kerfoot, TJ Brodie)wrist0.08 xG
TOR: Simmonds, Brodie, Holl, Kerfoot, MatthewsBUF: Hayden, Asplund, Thompson, Jokiharju, Dahlin
TOR 2 – 1 BUF
10:53
BUFVinnie Hinostroza (Tage Thompson, Mattias Samuelsson)deflected0.06 xG
TOR: Brodie, Holl, Bunting, Marner, MatthewsBUF: Hinostroza, Thompson, Jokiharju, Dahlin, Krebs
TOR 2 – 2 BUF

3rd period

5:16
BUFVinnie Hinostrozawrist0.01 xG
TOR: Rielly, Bunting, Marner, Matthews, SandinBUF: Hinostroza, Bryson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Cozens
TOR 2 – 3 BUF
13:49
BUFPeyton Krebs (Dylan Cozens, Kyle Okposo)wrist0.00 xG
TOR: Tavares, Holl, Rielly, Nylander, KaseBUF: Okposo, Bryson, Samuelsson, Krebs, Cozens
TOR 2 – 4 BUF
17:35
BUFTage ThompsonENwrist0.26 xG
TOR: Spezza, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, MatthewsBUF: Hagg, Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson
TOR 2 – 5 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	0	0	-3	5	0.91	2	0	0	20:51	—	—	65	63
Auston Matthews C	L1	1	0	1	-2	5	0.72	3	0	2	20:26	—	—	65	64
Michael Bunting L	L1	0	0	0	-2	0	0.16	1	0	12	16:02	—	—	62	59
William Nylander R	L2	0	1	1	-1	3	0.31	1	0	0	18:25	—	—	52	47
John Tavares C	L2	0	1	1	-2	3	0.22	3	0	0	17:54	—	—	53	47
Ondrej Kase R	L2	1	0	1	0	2	0.13	4	0	0	15:12	—	—	54	46
David Kampf C	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.28	2	0	0	13:15	—	—	59	44
Ilya Mikheyev R	L3	0	0	0	-1	4	0.39	1	0	10	12:52	—	—	59	41
Pierre Engvall L	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	0	0	2	10:50	—	—	58	48
Alexander Kerfoot C	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	0	0	0	12:08	—	—	44	43
Jason Spezza C	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.13	1	1	0	10:50	—	—	38	38
Wayne Simmonds R	L4	0	0	0	+1	1	0.14	2	1	0	8:52	—	—	39	43
Justin Holl D	D1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	1	0	23:09	—	—	54	50
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	3	2	2	22:13	—	—	52	46
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	0	0	-3	6	0.29	0	0	0	25:29	—	—	62	60
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	0	2	15:47	—	—	47	56
Rasmus Sandin D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	1	0	0	17:08	—	—	58	59
Timothy Liljegren D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	2	2	10:25	—	—	67	38

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Petr Mrazek(start)	L	37	33	4	.892	2.70	58:29

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Tage Thompson C	L1	1	1	2	+1	4	0.44	1	0	10	18:38	—	—	41	45
Alex Tuch R	L1	0	0	0	+1	4	0.40	2	1	0	18:32	—	—	40	45
Jeff Skinner L	L1	0	0	0	0	6	0.41	2	1	0	18:07	—	—	38	44
Dylan Cozens C	L2	0	1	1	+3	1	0.03	2	0	10	15:42	—	—	48	43
Peyton Krebs C	L2	2	0	2	+4	2	0.26	0	0	0	14:20	—	—	56	48
Vinnie Hinostroza C	L2	2	1	3	+3	5	0.12	1	0	2	13:48	—	—	52	45
Kyle Okposo R	L3	0	1	1	0	2	0.03	2	0	2	16:58	—	—	39	31
Casey Mittelstadt C	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	1	2	0	16:19	—	—	31	30
Victor Olofsson L	L3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.21	1	0	0	14:04	—	—	39	34
Cody Eakin C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	11:37	—	—	55	68
Rasmus Asplund C	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.16	0	0	0	9:57	—	—	52	64
John Hayden C	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.39	1	0	2	9:13	—	—	48	65
Henri Jokiharju D	D1	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	3	5	2	25:03	—	—	44	49
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	0	0	0	5	0.30	1	2	2	23:47	—	—	47	42
Mattias Samuelsson D	D2	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	6	3	0	20:59	—	—	37	42
Jacob Bryson D	D2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	2	0	17:18	—	—	34	16
Robert Hagg D	D3	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	4	1	0	14:32	—	—	57	72
Mark Pysyk D	D3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.07	1	0	0	13:06	—	—	56	69

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Craig Anderson(start)	W	36	34	2	.944	3.83	60:00

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.