Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo SabresDec 21, 2023

FinalThursday, Dec 21, 2023· KeyBank Center

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	2	1	0	3		TOR	10	5	12	27
BUF	3	3	3	9		BUF	13	10	11	34

: TOR 62BUF 65
: TOR 2.35BUF 3.99
PP goals: TOR 1BUF 1
Hits: TOR 20BUF 28
Blocks: TOR 14BUF 19
PIM: TOR 10BUF 8
: TOR 58%BUF 42%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Buffalo Sabres rout Toronto Maple Leafs 9–3

Buffalo Sabres beat Toronto Maple Leafs 9–3 at home. Alex Tuch (BUF) led the scoring with 0G 4A. BUF scored 9 goals on 3.99 expected goals (65 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Points
Alex Tuch had 4 assists (4 points) on 1 shot in 16:14.Tuch
Points
Jeff Skinner had two goals and an assist (3 points) on 5 shots in 14:26.Skinner
Points
Tage Thompson had a goal and 2 assists (3 points) on 5 shots in 15:20.Thompson
Points
Kyle Okposo had two goals (2 points) on 4 shots in 11:57.Okposo
Points
Connor Clifton had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 19:44.Clifton
Points
Timothy Liljegren had 2 assists (2 points) on 3 shots in 23:30.Liljegren
Points
Zach Benson had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 17:41.Benson
Luck
BUF scored 9 goals on 3.99 expected goals (65 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 127 of 127 attempts · BUF 65 · TOR 62

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 24% of the game, BUF 49%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	BUF
	49	62
	1.69	3.98
	1.53	3.83
	6	16
	4	5
	10	8
	+0.050	−0.050
	24%	49%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Tavares – Bertuzzi – Marner
10:2432% CF
L2Nylander – Matthews – Knies
9:2473% CF
L3Gregor – Kampf – McMann
8:3854% CF
L4Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson
8:1631% CF
D1Brodie – McCabe
14:2350% CF
D2Rielly – Liljegren
13:1029% CF
D3Timmins – Benoit
6:5557% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
3:32100% CF
PP2Jarnkrok – Bertuzzi – Domi – Timmins – Liljegren
2:0250% CF
PK1FMarner – Kampf
2:31
PK2FJarnkrok – Gregor
1:03
PK1DLiljegren – Benoit
3:13
PK2DBrodie – McCabe
1:57

Current TOR line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Greenway – Mittelstadt – Benson
10:0659% CF
L2Skinner – Tuch – Thompson
9:4043% CF
L3Cozens – Quinn – Peterka
9:1063% CF
L4Okposo – Olofsson – Krebs
7:0854% CF
D1Samuelsson – Dahlin
14:3450% CF
D2Clifton – Power
12:0464% CF
D3Johnson – Johnson
7:1747% CF

PP1Cozens – Quinn – Peterka – Power – Benson
3:3650% CF
PP2Skinner – Tuch – Thompson – Mittelstadt – Dahlin
3:0189% CF
PK1FGreenway – Cozens
3:14
PK2FOkposo – Quinn
0:48
PK1DJohnson – Samuelsson
2:21
PK2DClifton – Dahlin
2:19

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	0	0	0	-2	1	0.04	0	1	0	19:48	—	—	31	19
John Tavares C	L1	0	0	0	-1	4	0.50	3	0	2	17:47	—	—	34	13
Tyler Bertuzzi L	L1	0	0	0	-3	2	0.09	1	1	0	15:14	—	—	33	11
Auston Matthews C	L2	1	0	1	-1	1	0.14	0	0	0	18:19	—	—	58	48
William Nylander R	L2	0	1	1	0	6	0.83	0	0	0	17:18	—	—	66	60
Matthew Knies L	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	1	0	0	12:26	—	—	67	64
David Kampf C	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	1	0	13:57	—	—	57	43
Noah Gregor L	L3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	4	0	2	13:02	—	—	44	16
Bobby McMann C	L3	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	0	0	10:24	—	—	47	26
Calle Jarnkrok C	L4	1	0	1	-2	1	0.05	1	0	0	15:24	—	—	25	3
Max Domi C	L4	1	0	1	-4	1	0.08	1	0	2	12:48	—	—	22	2
Nick Robertson L	L4	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	0	0	0	9:14	—	—	29	4
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.12	0	2	0	22:36	—	—	57	42
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	-2	1	0.06	3	1	2	20:53	—	—	43	20
Timothy Liljegren D	D2	0	2	2	-1	3	0.21	2	5	0	23:30	—	—	38	24
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	1	1	-1	0	0.01	0	1	0	22:26	—	—	35	39
Simon Benoit D	D3	0	0	0	-3	1	0.02	2	2	2	14:28	—	—	45	16
Conor Timmins D	D3	0	0	0	-4	0	0.00	0	0	0	12:29	—	—	50	15

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Martin Jones	—	15	11	4	.733	2.25	31:38
Ilya Samsonov(start)	L	19	14	5	.737	1.74	28:12

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Zach Benson L	L1	0	2	2	+2	2	0.58	0	0	0	17:41	—	—	64	94
Casey Mittelstadt C	L1	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	0	0	0	17:32	—	—	65	95
Jordan Greenway L	L1	1	0	1	+1	2	0.12	2	2	0	16:29	—	—	56	93
Alex Tuch R	L2	0	4	4	+2	1	0.02	0	2	2	16:14	—	—	47	43
Tage Thompson C	L2	1	2	3	0	5	0.40	1	0	0	15:20	—	—	54	57
Jeff Skinner L	L2	2	1	3	0	5	0.58	0	1	0	14:26	—	—	45	42
Dylan Cozens C	L3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.19	0	0	0	19:06	—	—	59	83
Jack Quinn R	L3	1	0	1	+1	3	0.25	0	1	4	16:33	—	—	68	81
JJ Peterka R	L3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.37	1	0	0	16:31	—	—	63	81
Kyle Okposo R	L4	2	0	2	+3	4	0.46	4	1	0	11:57	—	—	55	86
Victor Olofsson L	L4	0	0	0	+2	1	0.13	1	0	0	9:25	—	—	63	81
Peyton Krebs C	L4	0	1	1	+1	2	0.16	0	2	0	9:24	—	—	45	38
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	1	0	1	0	2	0.30	1	2	0	22:45	—	—	56	78
Mattias Samuelsson D	D1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	7	2	2	19:03	—	—	47	77
Owen Power D	D2	1	0	1	+5	2	0.22	1	3	0	23:29	—	—	64	68
Connor Clifton D	D2	0	2	2	+5	2	0.10	6	1	0	19:44	—	—	61	63
Erik Johnson D	D3	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	4	1	0	14:42	—	—	41	58
Ryan Johnson D	D3	0	1	1	+2	0	0.02	0	1	0	12:51	—	—	58	76

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Devon Levi(start)	W	27	24	3	.889	2.35	60:00

Goal anatomy

Animated replays from NHL EDGE tracking, with the entry, passes and shot speed for each goal.

Jordan Greenway (BUF) 1st 2:27 · assists Connor Clifton, Zach Benson · Rush · carried in · 52.2 mph shot · 1.4 s from entry to goal.

Jordan Greenway · 1st 2:27 · BUF

Play: rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: No
Passes: 0
Shot: 52.2 mph
Distance: 43 ft
Entry to goal: 1.4 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Auston Matthews · 1st 7:28 · TOR

Play: turnover-forecheck
Passes: 0
Shot: 52.8 mph
Distance: 35 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Max Domi · 1st 12:39 · TOR PP

Play: cycle
Passes: 2 (royal road)
Shot: 63.3 mph
Distance: 36 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Owen Power · 1st 13:44 · BUF

Play: rebound
Entry: carry
Odd man: 4-on-3
Passes: 0
Shot: 31.8 mph
Distance: 7 ft
Entry to goal: 4.4 s
Type: rebound

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Jeff Skinner · 1st 15:51 · BUF

Play: dump-and-chase
Entry: dump
Odd man: No
Passes: 1
Shot: 30.4 mph
Distance: 13 ft
Entry to goal: 4.9 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 4:44 · BUF PP

Play: turnover-forecheck
Passes: 0
Shot: 71.4 mph
Distance: 40 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 5:42 · TOR SH

Play: odd-man-rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: 2-on-1
Passes: 0
Shot: 49.7 mph
Distance: 20 ft
Entry to goal: 2.5 s
Type: one-timer

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Tage Thompson · 2nd 8:22 · BUF

Play: rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: No
Passes: 1
Shot: 54.1 mph
Distance: 44 ft
Entry to goal: 2.7 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Kyle Okposo · 2nd 11:04 · BUF SH

Play: odd-man-rush
Entry: carry
Odd man: 1-on-0
Passes: 0
Shot: 70.3 mph
Distance: 29 ft
Entry to goal: 1.8 s

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Jack Quinn · 3rd 11:08 · BUF

Play: cycle
Passes: 0
Distance: 3 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Jeff Skinner · 3rd 12:23 · BUF

Play: turnover-forecheck
Passes: 0
Shot: 51.7 mph
Distance: 20 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Kyle Okposo · 3rd 15:02 · BUF

Play: cycle
Passes: 2 (royal road)
Shot: 6.8 mph
Distance: 24 ft

Watch on NHL.com → · Tracking-derived via NHL EDGE

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo SabresDec 21, 2023

Fantasy takeaways

Buffalo Sabres rout Toronto Maple Leafs 9–3

Shot map

Shot map

Game flow

Cumulative shot attempts

Shift chart

Shifts

Sequence card

Lines used

Toronto Maple Leafs

Buffalo Sabres

Scoring summary

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Buffalo Sabres

Goal anatomy

Jordan Greenway · 1st 2:27 · BUF

Auston Matthews · 1st 7:28 · TOR

Max Domi · 1st 12:39 · TOR PP

Owen Power · 1st 13:44 · BUF

Jeff Skinner · 1st 15:51 · BUF

Rasmus Dahlin · 2nd 4:44 · BUF PP

Calle Jarnkrok · 2nd 5:42 · TOR SH

Tage Thompson · 2nd 8:22 · BUF

Kyle Okposo · 2nd 11:04 · BUF SH

Jack Quinn · 3rd 11:08 · BUF

Jeff Skinner · 3rd 12:23 · BUF

Kyle Okposo · 3rd 15:02 · BUF