Edmonton Oilers vs. Buffalo SabresMar 6, 2023

FinalMonday, Mar 6, 2023· KeyBank Center

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
EDM	1	1	1	3		EDM	20	6	11	37
BUF	1	0	1	2		BUF	15	13	11	39

: EDM 62BUF 61
: EDM 3.77BUF 4.71
PP goals: EDM 0BUF 1
Hits: EDM 24BUF 18
Blocks: EDM 7BUF 11
PIM: EDM 4BUF 2
: EDM 65%BUF 35%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Edmonton Oilers edge Buffalo Sabres 3–2

Edmonton Oilers beat Buffalo Sabres 3–2 at BUF. Connor McDavid (EDM) led the scoring with 2G 0A. New look for EDM: Hyman–McDavid–McLeod skated 8:38 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (55.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.

Points
Connor McDavid had two goals (2 points) on 3 shots in 19:58.McDavid
New line
New look for EDM: Hyman–McDavid–McLeod skated 8:38 together at 5v5 as the L2 trio (55.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Hyman McDavid McLeod
Luck
BUF scored 2 goals on 4.71 expected goals (61 attempts), well short of its chances.
Goalie
Stuart Skinner (EDM) faced 39 shots and stopped 37 (.949), +8 against a season average of 30.7; the win.Skinner
Goalie
Craig Anderson (BUF) faced 37 shots and stopped 34 (.919), +5 against a season average of 31.7; the loss.Anderson
New line
New look for BUF: Okposo–Girgensons–Peterka skated 4:55 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (57.1% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Okposo Girgensons Peterka
New line
New look for BUF: Olofsson–Greenway–Krebs skated 4:31 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (0% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Olofsson Greenway Krebs
New line
New look for EDM: Bjugstad–Janmark–Foegele skated 5:03 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (77.8% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Bjugstad Janmark Foegele

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← EDM attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
EDM
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 123 of 123 attempts · BUF 61 · EDM 62

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
EDM
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
EDM pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: EDM 30% of the game, BUF 32%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

EDM

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	EDM	BUF
	66	59
	3.93	4.21
	3.79	3.87
	14	12
	7	4
	17	17
	+0.084	−0.084
	30%	32%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Edmonton Oilers

L1Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto
12:1450% CF
L2Hyman – McDavid – McLeod
8:3856% CF
L3Shore – Ryan – Kostin
8:0475% CF
L4Bjugstad – Janmark – Foegele
5:0378% CF
D1Ceci – Nurse
18:0453% CF
D2Ekholm – Bouchard
16:4446% CF
D3Kulak – Desharnais
13:2464% CF

PP1Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – McDavid – Bouchard
1:40100% CF
PP2Kulak – Nurse – Foegele – Yamamoto – McLeod
0:20100% CF
PK1FBjugstad – Janmark
0:45
PK2FNugent-Hopkins – Ryan
0:00
PK1DEkholm – Desharnais
1:42
PK2DCeci – Nurse
0:43

Current EDM line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Skinner – Thompson – Quinn
13:4369% CF
L2Hinostroza – Mittelstadt – Cozens
10:4956% CF
L3Okposo – Girgensons – Peterka
4:5557% CF
L4Olofsson – Greenway – Krebs
4:310% CF
D1Jokiharju – Power
9:4729% CF
D2Clague – Lyubushkin
7:0513% CF
D3Bryson – Dahlin
6:0053% CF

PP1Mittelstadt – Krebs – Quinn – Peterka – Power
1:27100% CF
PP2Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson – Dahlin – Cozens
0:59100% CF
PK1FGirgensons – Cozens
1:11
PK2FOkposo – Krebs
0:48
PK1DDahlin – Lyubushkin
0:33
PK2DJokiharju – Power
0:28

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Edmonton Oilers

EDM skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	L1	0	0	0	-1	4	0.32	0	0	0	17:40	—	—	43	47
Leon Draisaitl C	L1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.31	2	1	0	17:39	—	—	43	48
Kailer Yamamoto R	L1	0	0	0	-1	4	0.40	2	0	0	14:52	—	—	50	52
Connor McDavid C	L2	2	0	2	+2	3	0.26	2	1	0	19:58	—	—	47	41
Zach Hyman L	L2	0	0	0	+2	2	0.61	0	0	2	17:36	—	—	47	40
Ryan McLeod C	L2	0	1	1	+1	1	0.17	0	0	0	16:45	—	—	50	34
Derek Ryan C	L3	1	0	1	+1	3	0.41	2	0	0	11:10	—	—	74	69
Klim Kostin C	L3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.07	4	0	0	10:16	—	—	68	68
Devin Shore C	L3	0	1	1	+1	3	0.20	0	1	0	9:56	—	—	72	68
Mattias Janmark C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	15:34	—	—	53	44
Nick Bjugstad C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	3	0	0	14:26	—	—	63	48
Warren Foegele L	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.14	2	0	0	13:15	—	—	55	56
Cody Ceci D	D1	0	1	1	+2	1	0.00	3	1	0	22:43	—	—	53	51
Darnell Nurse D	D1	0	1	1	+2	2	0.07	2	2	0	21:16	—	—	51	53
Mattias Ekholm D	D2	0	1	1	0	3	0.06	0	0	0	22:03	—	—	51	39
Evan Bouchard D	D2	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	0	1	2	20:42	—	—	42	35
Vincent Desharnais D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	1	0	0	16:10	—	—	59	57
Brett Kulak D	D3	0	0	0	0	3	0.07	0	0	0	15:16	—	—	67	67

EDM goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Stuart Skinner(start)	W	39	37	2	.949	4.71	60:00

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Tage Thompson C	L1	0	1	1	-1	2	0.76	3	0	2	20:33	—	—	60	68
Jeff Skinner L	L1	1	0	1	-1	7	1.34	0	1	0	19:07	—	—	64	70
Jack Quinn R	L1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.36	0	0	0	16:02	—	—	70	78
Dylan Cozens C	L2	1	0	1	+1	6	0.84	0	1	0	18:40	—	—	50	51
Casey Mittelstadt C	L2	0	1	1	+1	4	0.30	0	0	0	15:57	—	—	52	49
Vinnie Hinostroza C	L2	0	0	0	+1	4	0.33	0	0	0	15:02	—	—	61	49
JJ Peterka R	L3	0	0	0	-2	3	0.12	0	0	0	14:04	—	—	23	21
Kyle Okposo R	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	13:44	—	—	23	21
Zemgus Girgensons C	L3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.15	0	0	0	11:06	—	—	28	24
Peyton Krebs C	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	14:20	—	—	32	28
Victor Olofsson L	L4	0	0	0	-2	3	0.12	1	1	0	12:07	—	—	21	27
Jordan Greenway L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	3	0	0	12:07	—	—	41	46
Owen Power D	D1	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	25:47	—	—	39	37
Henri Jokiharju D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	2	0	0	23:15	—	—	53	44
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	3	2	0	16:23	—	—	41	41
Kale Clague D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	13:49	—	—	27	54
Rasmus Dahlin D	D3	0	0	0	-1	3	0.18	1	1	0	23:38	—	—	68	77
Jacob Bryson D	D3	0	1	1	-2	1	0.03	1	3	0	13:59	—	—	47	49

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Craig Anderson(start)	L	37	34	3	.919	3.77	58:20

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Buffalo SabresMar 6, 2023

Fantasy takeaways

Edmonton Oilers edge Buffalo Sabres 3–2

Shot map

Shot map

Game flow

Cumulative shot attempts

Shift chart

Shifts

Sequence card

Lines used

Edmonton Oilers

Buffalo Sabres

Scoring summary

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

Buffalo Sabres