Florida Panthers vs. Buffalo SabresJan 16, 2023

FinalMonday, Jan 16, 2023· KeyBank Center

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Florida PanthersFLA

4

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Buffalo SabresBUF

1

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
FLA	1	1	2	4		FLA	14	15	5	34
BUF	0	0	1	1		BUF	8	8	13	29

: FLA 55BUF 55
: FLA 3.42BUF 2.84
PP goals: FLA 0BUF 0
Hits: FLA 27BUF 13
Blocks: FLA 16BUF 14
PIM: FLA 8BUF 8
: FLA 54%BUF 46%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Florida Panthers beat Buffalo Sabres 4–1

Florida Panthers beat Buffalo Sabres 4–1 at BUF. Matthew Tkachuk (FLA) led the scoring with 0G 3A. New look for BUF: Okposo–Girgensons–Asplund skated 4:48 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (56.3% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.

Points
Matthew Tkachuk had 3 assists (3 points) on 3 shots in 17:39.Tkachuk
Points
Carter Verhaeghe had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 3 shots in 17:08.Verhaeghe
New line
New look for BUF: Okposo–Girgensons–Asplund skated 4:48 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (56.3% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Okposo Girgensons Asplund
New line
New look for FLA: Cousins–Luostarinen–Denisenko skated 6:59 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (12.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Cousins Luostarinen Denisenko
Luck
BUF scored 1 goal on 2.84 expected goals (55 attempts), well short of its chances.
Usage
Tyson Jost (BUF) played 19:36, +6:27 up on his 13:09 season average over 70 games.Jost
Usage
Jeff Skinner (BUF) played 12:50, −4:37 down on his 17:27 season average over 78 games.Skinner
Usage
Rasmus Asplund (BUF) played 7:27, −3:35 down on his 11:02 season average over 45 games.Asplund

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← FLA attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
FLA
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 110 of 110 attempts · BUF 55 · FLA 55

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
FLA
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
FLA pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: FLA 34% of the game, BUF 45%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

FLA

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	FLA	BUF
	53	54
	2.89	2.64
	2.84	2.55
	8	10
	1	2
	14	13
	+0.072	−0.071
	34%	45%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Florida Panthers

L1Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk
13:0548% CF
L2Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell
12:3558% CF
L3Staal – Lomberg – Smith
7:5357% CF
L4Cousins – Luostarinen – Denisenko
6:5913% CF
D1Staal – Montour
15:1635% CF
D2Ekblad – Forsling
14:4432% CF
D3Gudas – Mahura
11:1773% CF

PP1Barkov – Ekblad – Reinhart – Montour – Tkachuk
3:4467% CF
PP2Verhaeghe – Bennett – Forsling – Luostarinen – Lundell
1:40100% CF
PK1FStaal – Luostarinen
1:52
PK2FReinhart – Bennett
1:44
PK1DEkblad – Forsling
2:31
PK2DStaal – Gudas
1:49

Current FLA line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt
11:1233% CF
L2Cozens – Quinn – Peterka
9:0550% CF
L3Skinner – Tuch – Thompson
7:5253% CF
L4Okposo – Girgensons – Asplund
4:4856% CF
D1Samuelsson – Dahlin
12:2845% CF
D2Jokiharju – Power
10:2953% CF
D3Bryson – Lyubushkin
9:0446% CF

PP1Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Quinn – Peterka – Power
2:01100% CF
PP2Skinner – Tuch – Thompson – Dahlin – Cozens
1:50100% CF
PK1FOkposo – Jost
2:01
PK2FGirgensons – Asplund
1:17
PK1DJokiharju – Samuelsson
1:32
PK2DDahlin – Lyubushkin
1:18

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

4:01
FLABrandon Montour (Matthew Tkachuk)wrist0.03 xG
FLA: Staal, Verhaeghe, Bennett, Montour, TkachukBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Jokiharju, Power
FLA 1 – 0 BUF

2nd period

8:04
FLASam Bennett (Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe)slap0.12 xG
FLA: Verhaeghe, Ekblad, Bennett, Forsling, TkachukBUF: Tuch, Jost, Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Power
FLA 2 – 0 BUF

3rd period

0:34
FLAAnton Lundell (Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov)snap0.11 xG
FLA: Barkov, Ekblad, Reinhart, Forsling, LundellBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Jokiharju, Dahlin
FLA 3 – 0 BUF
11:27
BUFAlex Tuchwrist0.02 xG
FLA: Barkov, Ekblad, Reinhart, Forsling, LundellBUF: Okposo, Tuch, Jost, Jokiharju, Dahlin
FLA 3 – 1 BUF
18:22
FLACarter VerhaegheEN (Matthew Tkachuk, Gustav Forsling)wrist0.53 xG
FLA: Verhaeghe, Ekblad, Bennett, Forsling, TkachukBUF: Tuch, Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Cozens, Quinn, Power
FLA 4 – 1 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Florida Panthers

FLA skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Sam Bennett C	L1	1	0	1	+3	3	0.15	1	0	0	19:54	—	—	42	46
Matthew Tkachuk L	L1	0	3	3	+3	3	0.40	0	2	2	17:39	—	—	50	62
Carter Verhaeghe C	L1	1	1	2	+3	3	0.70	0	0	0	17:08	—	—	46	46
Sam Reinhart C	L2	0	1	1	0	3	0.01	1	1	0	20:08	—	—	57	45
Aleksander Barkov C	L2	0	1	1	0	1	0.12	1	0	0	19:57	—	—	50	38
Anton Lundell C	L2	1	0	1	0	4	0.45	0	0	0	18:02	—	—	52	42
Eric Staal C	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	11:39	—	—	61	56
Givani Smith R	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.21	2	1	0	8:52	—	—	57	52
Ryan Lomberg L	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.46	4	0	2	8:36	—	—	58	53
Eetu Luostarinen C	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.48	1	0	2	14:00	—	—	40	77
Grigori Denisenko L	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	10:49	—	—	31	13
Nick Cousins C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	1	2	10:33	—	—	31	79
Brandon Montour D	D1	1	0	1	+1	2	0.19	4	2	0	22:52	—	—	36	32
Marc Staal D	D1	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	3	0	19:12	—	—	41	49
Aaron Ekblad D	D2	0	0	0	+2	1	0.05	1	2	0	24:30	—	—	39	55
Gustav Forsling D	D2	0	1	1	+2	2	0.05	2	2	0	22:06	—	—	41	45
Radko Gudas D	D3	0	0	0	0	4	0.12	4	1	0	16:38	—	—	68	67
Josh Mahura D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	2	0	0	12:41	—	—	70	72

FLA goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Sergei Bobrovsky(start)	W	29	28	1	.966	2.84	60:00

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Tyson Jost C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.31	0	1	0	19:36	—	—	48	49
Casey Mittelstadt C	L1	0	0	0	-2	2	0.17	0	0	0	18:19	—	—	39	49
Victor Olofsson L	L1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	17:49	—	—	57	69
Dylan Cozens C	L2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	4	0	4	16:02	—	—	38	41
JJ Peterka R	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.35	1	0	0	14:52	—	—	48	61
Jack Quinn R	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	2	14:16	—	—	44	45
Alex Tuch R	L3	1	0	1	-3	4	0.23	1	0	2	16:34	—	—	57	48
Tage Thompson C	L3	0	0	0	-2	2	0.13	0	0	0	15:08	—	—	55	52
Jeff Skinner L	L3	0	0	0	-2	3	0.09	0	0	0	12:50	—	—	44	24
Kyle Okposo R	L4	0	0	0	+1	5	0.40	2	1	0	15:10	—	—	54	43
Zemgus Girgensons C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	0	0	11:03	—	—	64	48
Rasmus Asplund C	L4	0	0	0	0	3	0.70	0	0	0	7:27	—	—	61	56
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	3	1	0	27:32	—	—	55	48
Mattias Samuelsson D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	2	0	20:00	—	—	50	48
Henri Jokiharju D	D2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	0	2	0	22:00	—	—	60	52
Owen Power D	D2	0	0	0	-3	0	0.05	0	1	0	20:50	—	—	48	47
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	2	0	13:08	—	—	44	47
Jacob Bryson D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	12:12	—	—	41	44

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen(start)	L	33	30	3	.909	2.89	59:12

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.